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If the next Defender is the real deal, current model prices will drop. If it’s a showpony lightweight, prices for classic Defenders in excellent condition will rise.
But, it will be uncool to drive a non hybrid / elec vehicle in 10 years time. So Defender prices might drop anyway.
$200k for my Defender? Well, I could almost pay off my house. Hmm
Latest prediction I have seen (not from an EV enthusiast) is that Electric vehicles will sell 19% of the market in twenty years. EV enthusiasts are predicting 90% in five years. I suspect the former is closer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeros
I reckon it will be in between, around 50% in 20 years...which will be a large portion of the new vehicle market. Hybrid will become the norm more quickly than that. $$ and fuel price will drive it more than the environment as usual.Quote:
Originally Posted by JDNSW
I don't see E.V.'s becoming anywhere near as prevalent as quickly as some comments hear suggest.
Of course, I'm definitely not saying there's not a future for these vehicles, but IMHO at 10 yrs, I reckon the internal combustion engine will still be the major player. (Getting a bit off topic here!)
Pickles.
Current Defender prices don’t look to have dropped at all since new Defender pre-launch photos in December. If anything they may have risen a little?
Whats the consensus? will they continue to rise for classic Defenders, or begin to fall as new Defender is released like most other models?
I doubt there is a consensus - to a large extent it depends on what the new one is like.
Yes agreed, consensus is the wrong word. ...but it’s interesting that prices dont look to have moved down at all. Early days I know and it’s very difficult to judge.Quote:
Originally Posted by JDNSW
Doubt if prices will move for some time. Then Puma prices will fall, but series prices will keep rising, is my prediction. After about 20 years Puma prices will rise again.
Looking at EV sales in Aus,Quote:
Originally Posted by JDNSW
Around 0.18% of the new vehicle market at the moment,up very slightly from 2017,and2016.
So a long,long way to go.
No way it will be anything like 90% in 5 years,they are definitely dreaming.
It will be lucky to be 5% in 5 years on current trends.
And thats over 50 000 vehicles,up from around 1200 per annum,which in real terms,and trends, also seems very very optimistic.
I don’t think current trends mean much in terms of EV’s. Over the next three years many new models of EV are coming into the market. The charging network will grow faster than most think too. In 5 years everything will have changed. ...not least climate change and more urgent crack downs on high emissions vehicles.
...the big question in terms of Defender prices is, will classic diesel Defenders hold their value? Or will they be too difficult to run?
Of course diesel will be around much longer than 5 years, but change will be rapid once EVs become the norm...it’s sooner than most could have imagined IMO.