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With delivery on most new cars of any kind running into years, I think expecting a new, undeveloped technology, to be available for delivery, in Australia, at an affordable price, in less than eight years is wildly optimistic.
Not to mention the prospects of a major recession and possibility of a major war.
Oddly Pressure and grumpy politics is most likely why US DOE has reacted to secure supply chains. The battery wars are huge.[biggrin] I did not include a musk involvement which is US and China based. [bigwhistle]Quote:
Originally Posted by JDNSW
According to Adamas Intelligence, three million new EVs were registered around the world in 2020, representing 134.5 gigawatt-hours’ worth of batteries. That’s a 40-percent increase over 2019, and the growth trend continues — in the first five months of 2021, the total amount of battery capacity deployed was greater than in all of 2018. Not only are more EVs being sold, but the battery capacity in each vehicle has increased.
A recent article in IEEE Spectrum describes the companies that currently dominate the battery market, and explains some of the technical issues that could shape the race to ramp up production over the next few years.
As of the second half of 2020, six Asian companies supplied 87% of the batteries deployed in passenger EVs.
The biggest battery-builder was China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), which supplies Tesla, the Volkswagen Group, Volvo, Stellantis, BMW, Honda and several Chinese automakers. CATL grew by an astounding 3,400% from 2016 to 2020, and accounts for 26% of the global battery market. link to story
Australia doesn't figure in this yet despite a few twits early adopters [bigwhistle] The US news was all in the last 4 weeks and totals well over 6.5 billion 4USD.
EU has several billion in play as well. Still all minnows compared to CATL.
The comment that all new EVs have a Lot more batteries is an understatement plus.
Useable battery capacity of full electric vehiclesUseable battery capacity of full electric vehicles cheatsheet - EV Database
My car is way down the list yet far from the bottom. It is just over one year old now.
More than happy to see Landrover holding back until 2025ish as the capacity/cost then is likely to be ??????? [thumbsupbig]
As for history
"2003 – Worldwide battery sales — a snapshot • Total world sales value $48 billion. • Sales value of small rechargeable batteries – $7.6 billion. • More than 110 million automotive lead acid batteries were manufactured for more than 650 million vehicles on the world’s roads. 81% of sales were to the replacement market. • Sales value of industrial batteries for traction and standby power applications – $14 billion. • 500,000 electric bicycles per year sold in China. • The HEV/EV battery market is expected to grow at an AAGR of more than 50% to nearly $250 million in 2008. • Total battery demand expected to exceed $60 billion by 2006 and $65 billion by 2008." All years in a short history of batterys
That prediction for 2008 was not missed. And the PRICES were huge at the time!
https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/imag...32&w=630&h=354
2024 might be the sweet spot? "Over the last ten years prices have fallen as production has reached economy of scale. They now cost around $156 per kilowatt-hour, according to BloombergNEF, which is an 85% decline from 2010′s $1,100 plus/kWh cost. And continued production and improving efficiencies are set to make prices drop below the $100/kWh price by 2024, Bloomberg NEF found, which is significant since that’s the industry consensus for when electric vehicles will reach price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles."
The market decides price of course. Predicting costs is a bit fraught with discredited economists [bigrolf]
The fuel cost prices are the opposite to battery costs. Worse perhaps is servicing costs are going through the roof. A nice gent I like suggested $800 per hour on service labour cost plus parts[tonguewink][tonguewink][tonguewink] That was a year ago! Parts do not seem cheaper!
Sorry - I just have one issue with your post ND - I don't believe that graph at all - that's just pie in the sky - Lithium Battery prices to end users are increasing currently although I do expect to see them drop in the next 18 months as new lithium mines come into their production phases.
Battery packs for EV's or anything else are still the biggest single cost and prices haven't gone anywhere for the end user - this is either due to demand or price gouging - probably both, but I do find it frustrating that these sort of graphs are pedaled out to 'prove' battery prices are falling.
We've spend over half a million on batteries since the start of the year and prices are only heading one way due to supply chain issues, demand and inflation - of the equipment we are buying, over 60% of the price is just in the batteries. We have found niche markets where we can make our gear cost neutral due to current high diesel prices, but anything over around 45KWH doesn't stack up financially at the moment as much as we'd love it to.
Battery prices are falling , In 2017 I bought 28kwh of LiFePo4 , 45 x 200Ah prismatic cells. They cost $11,000 AU landed in Brisbane, I saw an offer for the same technology batteries earlier this year that worked out to $8000 for 28kwh Landed.
Fair opinion as many battery inputs are likely to be in tight supply spots. I suspect the massive production increases and significant competition between the huge factories coming on stream in EU, China, Korea, US and Japan will make prices fall myself but appreciate issues in supply chains can and will impact.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homestar
Oddly the hydrogen thread has multiple tonnes of battery grade graphite for every tonne of hydrogen. A cut and paste from a waffle I wrote
""Renascor’s market data suggests an average operating costs of ~US$2,000/t PSG for existing PSG market (100% China). Renascor’s gross operating cost of US$1,989/t PSG is favourable by comparison" psg is Purified Spherical Graphite
they also stated "China currently controls 100% of the market for Purified Spherical Graphite
All anode producers (including manufacturers in South Korea and Japan) are currently dependent on China for Purified Spherical Graphite."
Hazer "CDP is a 100-ton-per-annum low-emission hydrogen production" 1 to 3 I think so that is 400-ton-per-annum graphite production
CSIRO stated "The demonstration plant has a planned (operating) duration of around three years and would have the capacity to produce approximately 100 tonnes of hydrogen per annum and (reportedly) 380 tonnes of synthetic graphite per annum."
The sale price prediction is "Projected PSG sales price US$4,312/t""
"Graphite represents just under 50% of battery minerals in a lithium-ion battery. The spheronisation process decreases the surface area to allow more graphite into a smaller volume."
Lithium-ion battery are not just Lithium [thumbsupbig]
I am in a nuclear investment space as I type so excuse me if this is not totally logical. I did buy some solid state battery stock again. Its a long term thing as it is not yet making a cent from sales!
NOT Investment advice.
That sounds about right - We went from paying around $190 per Kwh earlier this year to $259 per Kwh yesterday when I ordered 100Kwh of cells.Quote:
Originally Posted by goingbush
For some other packaged systems with inbuilt BMS etc we use have also gone up around 30% in the last 6 months.
We bought some pre built 45Kwh units 3 months ago and went to order more - they’ve gone up over $25K in 3 months and lead times over a year.
Even at $200 per Kwh it’s hard to get a system to make economic sense when you put it up against diesel - but it has certainly helped that diesel is now over $2 per litre - Happy to see that level stay - it’s good for our battery and Hybrid power systems we hire. [emoji16]
Excuse me if I added this before. I suspect Landrover will be in this soon as well
"we now have the first official confirmation that hydrogen-powered BMW's will become mass produced starting from 2025, and the iX5 Hydrogen might be among them. BMW’s Head of Sales Pieter Nota told Nikkei the automaker will, alongside Toyota, introduce multiple FCEVs.
“(…) hydrogen fuel cell technology is particularly relevant for larger SUVs," Nota said.
Cars using hydrogen aren’t something groundbreaking. Toyota, BMW’s partner in making the iX5 Hydrogen a reality, was heavily invested in this sector back in 2010. But the rise of Tesla's battery-powered vehicles and other strategies changed the company’s plans.
The collaboration between the Germans and the Japanese has first been seen with the all-new Toyota Supra. Even though it surprised many, BMW was content with sharing some of its technology and parts to get the hydrogen expertise from Toyota – the carmaker that has the Mirai FCEV as a second-generation unit that’s sold in a couple of markets like the UK.
BMW’s iX5 Hydrogen will demonstrate that filling up doesn’t take more than three to five minutes, and traveling long distances will be possible without compromising the standards customers are used to.
The Bavarians will continue investing in updating their portfolio, and battery-electric vehicles remain an important side of the brand’s business. The hydrogen push, however, reveals that major European carmakers are actively trying to provide an alternative to the already popular EVs.
Finally, someone will have to foot the incoming bill. The public and private sectors must work together if the “green” hydrogen dream is to become reality. As is the case with EVs in some markets, the charging infrastructure for FCEVs is basically nonexistent. There’s a lot of work to be done ahead." link
Watching Curpra closely The pricing is close to BYD and MG if this is correct
" Cupra Born EV given official Australian launch date
April 19, 2022 EV Central team
The Cupra Born EV will launch in Australia in early 2023, after the new brand‘s first fully electric vehicle’s right-hand-drive production window was locked in for Q4 this year.
Built on the VW Group’s MEB platform (which underpins the VW ID family), the Cupra Born will be the last for four models to arrive for Australia’s newest brand, and the only all-electric offering for now.
According to the brand’s senior executives, the Born will marry “electrification and performance”, with at least one of the variants to be packing 170kW and rear wheel drive.
Those outputs, and the Born’s body shape, make it more of an electric hot hatch than the larger EVs that have launched of late — like the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6 — while its 6.6sec sprint to 100km/h is about on-par with the Golf GTI, too.
Cupra says the idea is to put fun into the EV drive experience with the Born, which will focus on equal parts efficient and engagement.
Which is why an e-Boost system allows it to produce 20kW more power than the VW ID.3, for 170kW in total, though only in limited bursts. Torque peaks at 310Nm.
There are two battery options available, though Cupra is yet to confirm which will land in Australia — a 58kWh battery for about 420km of WLTP range and a 77kWh battery with about 540km of range.
Pricing is also yet to be confirmed, though the brand has doubled-down on its promise that the vehicle will come in at under $60k, and even suggested that could include the hi-po models.
“The car is set to be the impulse for a new generation of Aussie car lovers and to prove that performance and electrification can be a perfect match,” says Wayne Griffiths, Cupra’s global chief.
"
yep I can get 20 CALB modules delivered in Brisbane for a shade under $15k right now. Batteries are getting cheaper. The supplier just contacted me to say the shipping cost just dropped too, about 30%.
You have any spec sheets on these units by any chance? If you can email them to me I'd really appreciate it - I'm always on the lookout as we buy crap loads. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by akelly
Thanks - Gav
Here's the spec sheet. Any feedback on these modules from your experience? I'm thinking about using them in my Series 1 EV conversion with a Hyper9.Quote:
Originally Posted by Homestar
Attachment 180363