Oddly Pressure and grumpy politics is most likely why US DOE has reacted to secure supply chains. The battery wars are huge. I did not include a musk involvement which is US and China based.
According to Adamas Intelligence, three million new EVs were registered around the world in 2020, representing 134.5 gigawatt-hours’ worth of batteries. That’s a 40-percent increase over 2019, and the growth trend continues — in the first five months of 2021, the total amount of battery capacity deployed was greater than in all of 2018. Not only are more EVs being sold, but the battery capacity in each vehicle has increased.
A recent article in IEEE Spectrum describes the companies that currently dominate the battery market, and explains some of the technical issues that could shape the race to ramp up production over the next few years.
As of the second half of 2020, six Asian companies supplied 87% of the batteries deployed in passenger EVs.
The biggest battery-builder was China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), which supplies Tesla, the Volkswagen Group, Volvo, Stellantis, BMW, Honda and several Chinese automakers. CATL grew by an astounding 3,400% from 2016 to 2020, and accounts for 26% of the global battery market. link to story
Australia doesn't figure in this yet despite a few twits early adopters The US news was all in the last 4 weeks and totals well over 6.5 billion 4USD.
EU has several billion in play as well. Still all minnows compared to CATL.
The comment that all new EVs have a Lot more batteries is an understatement plus.
Useable battery capacity of full electric vehiclesUseable battery capacity of full electric vehicles cheatsheet - EV Database
My car is way down the list yet far from the bottom. It is just over one year old now.
More than happy to see Landrover holding back until 2025ish as the capacity/cost then is likely to be ???????
As for history
"2003 – Worldwide battery sales — a snapshot • Total world sales value $48 billion. • Sales value of small rechargeable batteries – $7.6 billion. • More than 110 million automotive lead acid batteries were manufactured for more than 650 million vehicles on the world’s roads. 81% of sales were to the replacement market. • Sales value of industrial batteries for traction and standby power applications – $14 billion. • 500,000 electric bicycles per year sold in China. • The HEV/EV battery market is expected to grow at an AAGR of more than 50% to nearly $250 million in 2008. • Total battery demand expected to exceed $60 billion by 2006 and $65 billion by 2008." All years in a short history of batterys
That prediction for 2008 was not missed. And the PRICES were huge at the time!
2024 might be the sweet spot? "Over the last ten years prices have fallen as production has reached economy of scale. They now cost around $156 per kilowatt-hour, according to BloombergNEF, which is an 85% decline from 2010′s $1,100 plus/kWh cost. And continued production and improving efficiencies are set to make prices drop below the $100/kWh price by 2024, Bloomberg NEF found, which is significant since that’s the industry consensus for when electric vehicles will reach price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles."
The market decides price of course. Predicting costs is a bit fraught with discredited economists
The fuel cost prices are the opposite to battery costs. Worse perhaps is servicing costs are going through the roof. A nice gent I like suggested $800 per hour on service labour cost plus parts That was a year ago! Parts do not seem cheaper!
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