Grid can go 75% renewable

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by W&KO

It’ll be interesting to see if companies keep up with the maintenance on wind farms for the long haul. Wonder how many years it’ll be before we’ll see wind generators parked up.

Was at a gearbox engineering shop on Tuesday and they had 3 gearbox’s on the floor, 2 un-repairable. There was also a bunch in the racking which were also unrepairable I’m guessing there would have been six.

They pointed some design issues along with lack of monitoring, preventative maintenance and difficulties replacing a gearbox post commissioning.

---

I'm not pushing wind turbines, but it needs to be put in perspective.

The Callide thing in Qld has had the equivalent of SA's total average daily generation out of action for a month. Yes two out of four Callide generators are going now.

The bits of the one that blew up won't be sitting in a rack.

The two that are still out are the equivalent of over 100 of the new 4.2 MW wind turbines being off line.

The Yallourn situation has about 1200 MW of generation offline atm in Vic.

There's hundreds of wind turbines compared with far far fewer coal fired units so I don't think a few broken gearboxes is a big deal.

cheers, DL

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by W&KO

It’ll be interesting to see if companies keep up with the maintenance on wind farms for the long haul. Wonder how many years it’ll be before we’ll see wind generators parked up..

---

i know in the good ol US of A, i think it was texas, there are windturbines left to rust once they had past their 20year maitance lifecycle as it wasnt worth the money.

https://www.riteon.org.au/wp-content...tes-states.jpg

Battery banks: three experiences in the Dandenong outages.
They all worked as expected. The message is bigger is better.

What the Dandenong Ranges extended power outage teaches us about backup battery power
What the Dandenong Ranges extended power outage teaches us about backup battery power - ABC News

Batteries no longer need government support to be viable.

Big $300m battery to be built without government aid in market first

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

Battery banks: three experiences in the Dandenong outages.
They all worked as expected. The message is bigger is better.

What the Dandenong Ranges extended power outage teaches us about backup battery power
What the Dandenong Ranges extended power outage teaches us about backup battery power - ABC News

---

Storage has limits if the you cannot recharge. The Tesla battery with no solar is a short term option only. The other two had solar and also the knowledge to shut of bits they do not need. The underfloor electric heating in a 4ish degree environment could be 40-60Kwh daily? No way a battery will keep that going for a day or more with out input Mick.

I really do not see the storage type as the issue in the Dandenong example. Other than how long they would last for and if they cope with hot and cold conditions. We know that 10ish years is the life of the best of the current ones.

The used Telstra set up was smart. Cost is always an issue as is warranty when things go south. [bigwhistle] My redflow have had a very welcome support from them. No grumbles from me.

With several cells/banks you can replace defective ones when you identify a fault. With Tesla you have little access despite the pretty and nice interface GUI [biggrin]
Looking closely at my Solar side. I would like to make if 4 times bigger. Not enough space sadly and a big 4/5 storey development to my north is possibly going to have some impact on that plan.

The Melbourne battery plan is interesting as it is claiming it not seeking hand outs. It is legal changes that are making trading possible and likely to change to slow old coal burners a bit faster I think.

"The introduction of five-minute settlement periods within the National Electricity Market in October to replace the current 30-minute period also means “there will be plenty of arbitrage to go around” for suppliers such as battery owners, Professor Mountain said."

Yes, that shift from 5 to 30 minute periods could have some interesting effects.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

Yes, that shift from 5 to 30 minute periods could have some interesting effects.

---

it is easy at a economic only justification Mick. Since 2010 Solar cost have declined by a factor of five. Wind has followed a similar cost reduction and importantly both have seen significant growth in almost any and every country now just as it is cheaper, faster and easier to do if you remove the protection applied to Coal and fossil fuel sectors.

Oman is an oil state yet is moving off to solar and wind.

Attachment 172121

In about 2014 the cost curve for Solar made it clearly cheaper. It is not really a question unless counting money and science is not important.

https://reneweconomy.wpengine.com/wp...ture-costs.jpg

Forecasts are of course just that. Real date from 2000 to 2020 is more than enough. A Oil/GAS explorer has geological maps and expertise to try and find gas/oil yet we all know they drill a lot of dry wells. GIS wind and Sun data mean it is not guess work where economic and long term money well be made. Oman research paper is a me me me yet shows economics and research at a micro level which we know is being applied at a macro level. The Oman data I am referring to link



"Ten Years of Plunging Solar Prices Before going on to the future, let’s look at the last decade, and how exceptional it’s been. To do so, it’s tempting to look at the constant drumbeat of record-setting news-making solar auction prices, like bids at a costs of 1.35 cents per kwh in Abu Dhabi or 1.6 cents per kwh in Portugal."

Wind is even more interesting in some ways as scale on and offshore has exploded "The cost of land-based wind has dropped by 41% since 2008, and wind capacity has tripled in the same period."

1990 to 2015 in this size chart is WOW

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...-over-time.png

They are much bigger again today[biggrin]
Yallourn provides 22 per cent of Victoria's electricity, and about 8 per cent of Australia's National Electricity Market ( in Vic so picking on a dirty one here) Its is about 10,500 GW p.a.

This is for older smaller Wind turbines "an average onshore wind turbine rated at 2.5 – 3 megawatts can produce in excess of 6 million kWh every year. A 3.6 MW offshore turbine may double that" the division of Yallourn full year by one wind tower at <6 million PA suggest 1750 old smaller onshore Wind Turbines fill Yallourn full year capacity and as it was "More than" 1750 would exceed Yallourn.

five 2021 projects here in Oz are "Here you can see the top 5 onshore wind power projects taking place in Australia this year.

1. Golden Plains Wind Farm
2. Clark Creek Energy Hub
3. Forest Wind Farm
4. MacIntyre Wind Farm
5. Dulacca Wind Farm

These projects will add a combined up to 6926MW to the grid, powering 2.19 million Australian homes annually." link




Dry July has me making some money as well as saving it [bigwhistle]

Quote:

---

These projects will add a combined up to 6926MW to the grid, powering 2.19 million Australian homes annually.

---

When the wind blows not too little and not too much.
Are those figures bull**** capacity or actual capacity of about 30% of installed capacity
Regards PhilipA

This is also interesting in technical advances in lithium.

Sayona battery breakthrough adds to soaring share price - InQueensland