Grid can go 75% renewable

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Originally Posted by PhilipA

When the wind blows not too little and not too much.
Are those figures bull**** capacity or actual capacity of about 30% of installed capacity
Regards PhilipA

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Not my numbers Philip. I noted it was not raining often when when my ships finishing playing out deep. If we did not do a wash down before getting along side we knew we would be doing a fresh water wash down before we could step ashore. I do not recall more than once staying on the ship after we docked as we could always find a rain storm on the radar and steam over to it. Radar helped of course. It can measure wind speed as well[bigwhistle]

When I first moved back to Vic I hated the wind making my bike ride at well off upright and often at a lean of 45ish degrees to due to the constant strong westerly winds on the South West coast of Vic. The Kite Man- Ted Mellor R.I.P. convince me to make the most of it and not one day went by with out my acquired very high speed two string kite zooming about at ridiculous speeds[biggrin]

Not at all surprised to find it one of the busiest and most profitable wind farm areas.

The GIS data has been collected for decades now. Its not anything more than actuate record of wind and more for almost the entire world. Have a glance if you like. Wind Resource Data, Tools, and Maps | Geospatial Data Science | NREL
It is a US government resource for ships, planes and more. It is gold standard and a lot more accurate than a drilling rig hoping to hit gas, oil or gold. [thumbsupbig]

This is great, and it would be even greater to see more of this happening.

How Australia's battery industry highlights the barriers for onshore manufacturing
How Australia'''s battery industry highlights the barriers for onshore manufacturing - ABC News

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Originally Posted by PhilipA

When the wind blows not too little and not too much.
Are those figures bull**** capacity or actual capacity of about 30% of installed capacity
Regards PhilipA

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The Vic leader has been Kiata WF with an annual capacity factor of 47%. Nine 3.3kw turbines, hits 101% sometimes.

Turns off regularly when the price gets below $30 / mW. Did notice they kept it running one day when the price was negative a couple of months ago, maybe to see if they could get 24 hours @ 100%. Dunno.

The newer WF, Berrybank, has many more 4.2mW turbines and really stands out on % capacity ratings compared with all the other WF's, even Kiata, when the wind is about the same strength across Vic. I assume it's due to the increased efficiency of newer, larger turbines.



Not easy to get the cap factor figures however.

I'm not an advocate, just interested in facts.

DL

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Originally Posted by 350RRC

The Vic leader has been Kiata WF with an annual capacity factor of 47%. Nine 3.3kw turbines, hits 101% sometimes.

Turns off regularly when the price gets below $30 / mW. Did notice they kept it running one day when the price was negative a couple of months ago, maybe to see if they could get 24 hours @ 100%. Dunno.

The newer WF, Dundonell, has many more 4.2mW turbines and really stands out on % capacity ratings compared with all the other WF's, even Kiata, when the wind is generally 20 km/h or more. I assume it's due to the increased efficiency of newer, larger turbines.



Not easy to get the cap factor figures however.

I'm not an advocate, just interested in facts.

DL

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Reliability is a issue as Philip points out. It swing both way with QLD coal turbine blowing up, Coal mine in East vic at risk of drowning and a gas price spike reducing demand by industrial business here now today. "Double whammy’: Wholesale gas prices hit five-year highs" out put from "Victoria’s Longford gas plant" is at trickle of the required capacity.
Winds locally can be a bit variable and that is especially true over a large area.

Supply from fossil fuels has generally become reliable. On a bigger scale the Texas big freeze last year proved that is not always true. Add the cyber attack on oil earlier this year which was another event impacting on reliability. I have a work building UPS back up as even short outages have and would impact. Reliability is required on a micro or macro scale.

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Originally Posted by NavyDiver

Reliability is a issue as Philip points out. It swing both way with QLD coal turbine blowing up, Coal mine in East vic at risk of drowning and a gas price spike reducing demand by industrial business here now today. "Double whammy’: Wholesale gas prices hit five-year highs" out put from "Victoria’s Longford gas plant" is at trickle of the required capacity.
Winds locally can be a bit variable and that is especially true over a large area.

Supply from fossil fuels has generally become reliable. On a bigger scale the Texas big freeze last year proved that is not always true. Add the cyber attack on oil earlier this year which was another event impacting on reliability. I have a work building UPS back up as even short outages have and would impact. Reliability is required on a micro or macro scale.

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I edited the previous post, Berrybank was the WF I was thinking of but Dundonell also has 4.2's and is not far behind.

The relatively high capacity factors of those two and Kiata stand out regardless of wind strength, but it helps to have similar wind speed across Vic to make a comparison.

DL

did a little on this topic for myself - thought it might interest you. It follows from the US goal to eliminate C02 from its electrical generation by 2035
Goal are of course a bit like arseholes- everyone has one [biggrin]

Extreme Hot weather:
Drives up energy demand when supply is made more difficult.
Limit the amount of energy power lines can carry Power line transmission losses- Recall year 9 or From 3 science Ohm’s law anyone?
“Electrons moving back and forth crash into each other, and those collisions warm up power lines and the air around them.
You can actually hear those losses: That crackling sound when you stand under a transmission tower is lost electricity. You can see the losses, too: Notice how power lines sag in the middle? Some of that’s gravity. But the rest are electrical losses. Heat, like the kind from lost electricity, makes metal power lines expand. When they do, they sag. Powerlines are saggier, and leakier, on hot days.” link Increased fire risk, Drought……. And many deaths in extreme events

Extreme Cold weather
Texas Case study– Feb 2021 The coldest temperatures in 30 years triggered a sudden spike in wintertime energy demand, while the chilly weather led to coal piles freezing, a nuclear reactor tripping offline, and wind turbines icing up. Most importantly, the state’s largest source of electricity, natural gas, suffered shortfalls as wellheads froze, icy condensation blocked pipelines, and compressor stations shut down.
The blackouts cost the Texan economy upward of $130 billion in damages and losses
Texas politicos blamed iced-up wind turbines for the electricity shortfall when the majority of the power losses were from natural gas

The more things change the more they stay the same. Texas lost power in 2011, the Texas population has grown by more than 4 million people to nearly 30 million residents, further increasing energy demand.


Extreme weather events

Extreme weather events and will ensuing chaos and are a bigger threat to electricity. The number of Billion $ weather events is worth considering Extreme Weather and Climate Change | Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (c2es.org)
(USA only) I could find similar Australian data and picking on a place I love “ in Perth, the number of days above 35 °C by 2090 is 50 per cent greater than in the period centred on 1995 under RCP4.5. The number of days above 35 °C in Adelaide also increases by about 50 per cent by 2090, whereas the number of days above 40 °C more than doubles”
Not pretty reading Increased extreme weather events | Australia State of the Environment Report (Australia 2016)
Not suggesting a hot or cold day is climate change- I do think and see ‘extremes’ have significant impacts.

Many Solutions are needed. I think is more local power generation and more interconnected power resources to mitigate risks. Hazer local and state sized hydrogen production, storage and electrolysers for local and larger power generation and nuclear is in my thought just some of the required solution. nuclear probably not here due to some of the same reasons some other smart things are not here.

Noting I am still waiting for an electric motor and sufficient power for offshore fishing in my boat. Mario commented I still have a dirty 2 stroke motor Mia Culpa [biggrin]

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Texas politicos blamed iced-up wind turbines for the electricity shortfall when the majority of the power losses were from natural gas

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Nay Diver you should not believe things that renewable proponents claim.

“Wind was operating almost as well as expected”… A Texas-sized Energy Lie – Watts Up With That?
There are several sources that show that wind almost completely failed during the storms and that gas actually increased production but was unable to fully take the place of wind.
Regards PhilipA

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Originally Posted by PhilipA

Nay Diver you should not believe things that renewable proponents claim.

“Wind was operating almost as well as expected”… A Texas-sized Energy Lie – Watts Up With That?
There are several sources that show that wind almost completely failed during the storms and that gas actually increased production but was unable to fully take the place of wind.
Regards PhilipA

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Not suggesting the wind worked when iced up Philip- Much of it failed as well. A lot of the gas which was not iced up due to the infrastructure not being diverted to heating. Wind can stop power in high winds as well which is to avoid damage to the turbines and huge blades. Gas was the main loss as it is one of the biggest generation sources in Texas A full list of Texas generation sites of all types
Gas is the main source of Power in Texas.

On wind specifically and Texas "Texas leads the nation in wind-powered generation and produced about 28% of all U.S. wind-powered electricity in 2020. Wind power surpassed the state's nuclear generation for the first time in 2014 and produced more than twice as much electricity as the state's two nuclear power plants combined in 2020."

That is impressive yet clearly has its risks in high winds and extreme weather events. Gas infrastructure in Canada, Alaska and other very cold places would not have had the same issue as Texas is a fact beyond dispute either. Texas is not unique in planing for what the normal conditions are. We all do that for heating, cooling our homes which depends entirely where you live. First time I noted that was while in an almost tropical country. We froze. Not a heater could be brought. I still have many of the layers of clothing needed in that very unexpected cold snap 10 years ago. Just about went ass up on ice this morning here- Frost not unheard of in even QLD :)

The Texas nuclear plant also tripped off due to the overload/demand I think.

Wind was not expected to supply much during the storms, as winds are generally very light at this time of the year, and most of the capacity was shut down anyway for maintenance.

The major reasons for the outage were record demand, and failure of nuclear power as well as some gas plants because of pretty trivial failures brought about by the abnormally low temperatures, poor planning that meant the infrastructure was incapable of importing power from interstate. And overall, a critical gas shortage brought about by the record demand plus failure of a significant proportion of gas production simply because production equipment failed at the low temperatures encountered.

Most equipment in Texas, whether we are talking about gas production, nuclear power plants, wind generators, houses, or roads were not designed to function in those temperatures. And they didn't! "Everyone knows it is hot in Texas, not cold" (I have a brother lives in Texas, hence direct information)

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Originally Posted by NavyDiver

The Texas nuclear plant also tripped off due to the overload/demand I think.

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water intake feed froze.