EU Green Deal - New ICE cars banned by 2035

All this talk of banning ICE cars/fossil fueled cars is fine and dandy but there is one important aspect being overlooked. That is the average age of the Oz car fleet which is 10 years with Tasmania being 13 years. combine this with why this is the case. Basically it comes down to low personal incomes - think pensioners, single income families, low payng jobs etc. - Having low incomes precludes the possibility of ever buying a more modern car.

Banning these cars will cause huge hardship for the owners. They simply can't afford to replace their ICE cars with a hydrogen or battery car. Removing their mobility at the stroke of a pen will at best result in social unrest and possibly/probably violence similar to the recent Black Lives Matter riots in the USA. It may be worse here because it will likely be country wide unrest rather than the city confined riots of the USA.

It is important to note that in Oz rural regions the loss of a car means isolation from work, schools, shops, doctors, social needs etc. In other words no car is a stay at home situation.

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Originally Posted by Grumbles

All this talk of banning ICE cars/fossil fueled cars is fine and dandy but there is one important aspect being overlooked. That is the average age of the Oz car fleet which is 10 years with Tasmania being 13 years. combine this with why this is the case. Basically it comes down to low personal incomes - think pensioners, single income families, low payng jobs etc. - Having low incomes precludes the possibility of ever buying a more modern car.

Banning these cars will cause huge hardship for the owners. They simply can't afford to replace their ICE cars with a hydrogen or battery car. Removing their mobility at the stroke of a pen will at best result in social unrest and possibly/probably violence similar to the recent Black Lives Matter riots in the USA. It may be worse here because it will likely be country wide unrest rather than the city confined riots of the USA.

It is important to note that in Oz rural regions the loss of a car means isolation from work, schools, shops, doctors, social needs etc. In other words no car is a stay at home situation.

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You have missed the point - there is no ban on fossil fuelled ICEs - there is going to be a ban of manufacturers selling new vehicles - there is no intention to ban cars already on the road as these will just die a slow agonising death. So the great unwashed can still have their old cars but if they want a new one it will have to be electric or hydrogen.

Personally I do not care if my vehicle is powered by batteries or something else just that it can do what I need it to do for an affordable cost

At the moment the move to electric is in a limited number of countries and is generally a political statement for something to happen at a point in the future when they who are making the statements will no longer be in the job

So if they are going to ban the sale of new ICE cars then they will have to ban the sale of second hand ICE cars as well, as these are far more inefficient and polluting than anything new. Where does that leave "the great unwashed", who (like me) would never be able to afford a new hydrogen, EV, hybrid vehicle when their current ICE gives up the ghost?

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Originally Posted by ChookD2

Where does that leave "the great unwashed", who (like me) would never be able to afford a new hydrogen, EV, hybrid vehicle when their current ICE gives up the ghost?

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Buy a second hand hydrogen, EV, hybrid vehicle [thumbsupbig]

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Originally Posted by ChookD2

So if they are going to ban the sale of new ICE cars then they will have to ban the sale of second hand ICE cars as well, as these are far more inefficient and polluting than anything new. Where does that leave "the great unwashed", who (like me) would never be able to afford a new hydrogen, EV, hybrid vehicle when their current ICE gives up the ghost?

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Why will they have to ban the sale of second hand ICE vehicles?

When new emission regulations have been imposed on new cars, there were not bans placed on the sale of older vehicles that didn't meet the new standard.

You still be able to buy second hand ICE for quite a while.

Living in europe, I think those blokes are a bit out of touch with reality. Sure, 2035 IS quite a long ways away but looking at the number of cars sold per year, you would need to pollute an AWFUL lot to build that many lithium packs and I am not looking at CO2 because frankly, I care less about that than other pollution that is going on in the world. (unpopular opinion, I know) Also, if you want to go hydrogen, which I support btw, that still is a huge amount of work to be done, it borders on unfeasible. Who is going to pay for all this?

warning, rant:

I get that something needs to be done, but as a late gen X'er I feel that I am paying for all of it. I am cleaning the mess up from the previous generation(s) AND I am supposed to pay for cleaning it up even more then it was before for the milenials that come after me (or even a generation newer). It is highly frustrating especially since I am not given a choice in most cases.

/end rant

Having said that, everyone is in a bit of a pickle down here since there was a lot of rain lately. I live with one of the three big rivers in my backyard and water levels will go to record highs tomorrow. This should be good. If that levy goes, I am pretty much assured that none of my stuff survives. Fortunately I live in a part of the river system where there was the space to do things (make way for the river), there was the budget (barely I might add) to do these things and just enough political will to actually get all this done. Looking at the CO2/climate change debacle though I feel that we are missing the point. Sure doing nothing won't change anything but if the money that was spend on those hideous windmills and all those solar parks was instead put into actually protecting people from the inevitable consequences they would all still have dry feet upstream and by god still be alive!

So, back to the original topic, a ban on new ICE's in 2035? Might just as well since modern engines are being squeezed so much they are neither fun nor reliable anymore by that time. Is it realistic? I have my doubts. My main concern is: I WANT to drive my gas guzzler, it is my hobby and I choose to do so. I do not mind if it costs me extra. With regards to the environment; my house has had electric (green) heating and water since 2003. I do my bit for the world, but I want my car. Will that remain to be a choice? Will people respect me for my choices as I respect theirs? Or are all the greenies going to tell me what I can and cannot do?

Ok, perhaps this was the actual end of the rant then :)

Cheers,
-P

I think the actual rule proposed is to require zero tailpipe emissions.
Which vehicles can achieve zero tailpipe emissions? EVs and hydrogen.

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Originally Posted by RANDLOVER

I think this actually came about because a green group sued the German govt about it's climate change targets and won, as the measures fell far short of the targets needed to achieve net 0% by 2050.

German Court Orders Revision Of Climate Act To Ease Burden On Younger Generation : NPR

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It's a sod when 'we-the-people' including 'we-the-not-old-enough-to-vote-yet' have to sue our governments to do the right thing by the next generation instead of slavishly serving the billionaires' club. Many of whom have substantially benefited - nearly doubled, in some cases - from the pandemic. Mostly sleight-of-hand stuff that puts government money in private accounts. Don't trust me, look it up.

I'm nearly 70; I grasped the essentials of Climate Change when I was fourteen. 55 years ago; which is when the key predictions - visible in the disaster headlines for the last few years - were made. It's been on the scientific agenda since the late nineteenth century. That's at least 130 years ago. While some of the direst predictions made early on did not come to pass, the later predictions of "If this, then that" (eg, CO2 concentration) are accurate. My grandchildren are right to be angry with our Lilliputian so-called-leaders of the last fifty years.

Is this a rant? It feels like despair.

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Originally Posted by 3toes

Hydrogen electric or ICE is the future. Battery has a 10 or 15 year horizon before being obsolete due to range limitations and recharge time and problems with how green the electricity is plus problems with battery manufacture and disposal. It will have an ongoing place in the market but as a niche player for specific purposes

Most hybrids actually are more polluting in real world conditions than a petrol powered alternative so the solution does not rest there either

Already seeing cabs in London moving to hydrogen as the battery cars spend too much time off the road being recharged and the high cost of the vehicle itself makes it difficult for the economic case to stack up without very significant government subsidies

For the last 30 years the breakthrough in battery technology for both range and recharge time have been just around the corner with plenty of headlined about breakthroughs with them not stacking up in real life

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Despite the eye-watering cost of EVs initially, even at their current over-pricing they already break even at 10 years just on maintenance costs (firstly) and running costs (secondly). And there has been startling improvement in solar panels. The over-the-counter (and cheaper) panels one can get now are many percentage points more efficient that the predictions of 'theoretical(!) recovery of solar>to>electricity' of a few decades ago. I bought my household solar panels on the basis of 'full cost recovery in 10 years'. I'll have full cost recovery in 7 years. At today's prices, this would be 5 years.

EVs have very few moving parts (comparatively). That's their biggest advantage on dollar-only analysis.

Incidentally, Hyundai's ICONIQ 5 will accept something like 800kwh charging (very complex, computer guided) and go from 20% to 80% in just over 15 minutes.

Bearing in mind that a 1902 6.3 litre Fiat produced 32hp and a 2021 2.0 litre Mercedes can produce 450hp, progress in this (EV/Battery) area over the next decades is a pretty safe bet.

I also can easily envisage some farms having 'windmill to hydrogen ICE' on-site set-ups making economic sense in the foreseeable future.

The NSW State government is awake on this renewables issue; the current Feds are trying to tell us that 'non-renewable gas is green' (what??).