Are you noticing a drought?

[DiscoMick]

When we were in Tassie last month the locals were saying they hadn't had decent rain for six months, and blamed Queensland for pinching it. :D
It hasn't rained for a while in Godzown and I've had to restart watering the vegie garden. I've even resumed washing George on the front lawn to help the grass (had to get an LR reference into this post;)).
Now I read the story below. So, is climate change a reality and we better get used to drier weather?



Drought tightens its grip across Australia

ABC Rural
By Edwina Farley and rural reporters
Updated 1 hour 30 minutes ago
https://www.aulro.com/afvb/images/imported/2013/05/1357.jpg (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-02/rainfall-deficiencies-australia/4664990) Photo: This map illustrates the severe rainfall deficiencies across an eight-month period as compiled by the National Climate Centre (National Climate Centre) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-02/rainfall-deficiencies-australia/4664990)
Related Story: Farmers desperate for new drought policy (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-25/farmers-call-for-drought-policy/4651012)
Related Story: 'Drastic' measures urged to help Qld graziers (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-08/drastic-measures-urged-to-help-qld-graziers/4615768)
Related Story: Rural crisis fund for families 'doing it tough' (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-10/rural-crisis-fund-for-families-doing-it-tough/4620650)
Related Story: Farmers consider drought declarations for Queensland shires (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-11/qld-drought-committees-meet/4623396)
Related Story: Irrigators unfazed by drought (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-11/irrigators-unfazed-by-drought/4623544)
Related Story: Farmers meet in Merredin (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-15/merredin-meeting/4628522)
Related Story: Drought forces stock exodus (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-15/drought-mckinlay-cattle/4629062)
Related Story: Struggling farmers eligible for one off grant (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-24/struggling-farmers-eligible-for-one-off-grant/4649164)

Map: Melbourne 3000 (http://maps.google.com/?q=-37.8099,144.9622(Melbourne%203000)&z=5)

In case you hadn't noticed, it's dry out there.
Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia - even the centre of the continent is suffering a lack of rainfall. In recent months that's been termed severe and though for some areas rain has fallen, for many others a new drought is threatening.
In the Climate Commission report Critical Decade: Extreme Weather (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-03/scientist-endorse-report-that-says-climate-has-shifted/4606372) released last month, a forecast for more extreme heat and the resultant extreme weather events had little in it to cheer the fortunes of farmers.
In the vast swathes of land from the Gulf Country in Queensland to the traditional cropping districts of Western Australia, farmers are sizing up the latest Federal Government assistance package and looking to the skies.
By 2030 Australia will face:


a further 1 degree Celsius of warming in temperatures
up to 20 per cent more months of drought
up to 25 per cent increase in days of very high or extreme fire danger
increases in storm surges and severe weather events.

(Source: Federal Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education (http://www.climatechange.gov.au/climate-change/impacts.aspx))



But not for them the temporary relief of blaming an El Nino or La Nina weather cycle. Those culprits - responsible for the decade-long drought of the 2000s and the severe flooding across Queensland and New South Wales in recent years - are staying smugly in neutral conditions.
As Australian farmers tighten their belts to weather yet another dry spell, and look to government aid packages (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-25/farmers-call-for-drought-policy/4651012) to put food on the table, in the United States their counterparts are enjoying the benefits of crop insurance which is making their drought ravaged year as bearable as any other.
Statistics from the US department of agriculture show a record $17.2 billion was paid in crop insurance for the 2012 crop, 60 per cent of which is stumped up by the US government.
That sits alongside a US program worth $1.4 billion, helping farmers adapt to climate change.

"$17.2 billion was paid in crop insurance, 60 per cent of which is stumped up the US government. That sits alongside a US program worth $1.4 billion, helping farmers adapt to climate change."

figures from USDA


Just how much of Australia's current weather crisis is climate change or cyclical attracts a divergence of opinion.
But what does have agreement is that the lack of rain could severely affect the national grain crop, livestock markets and production across a range of other agricultural industries.
In Australia the new policy on drought is to manage or future-proof farmers and give them the tools to be better business managers and climate mitigators, rather than relying on crisis management which is how the previous exceptional circumstances program is perceived.
https://www.aulro.com/afvb/images/imported/2013/05/1358.jpg (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-30/coorabulka-rdjpg/4659732)

https://www.aulro.com/afvb/images/imported/2013/05/1359.jpg (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-10/dry-cracked-ground-drought-generic-thumbnailjpg/4458958)

https://www.aulro.com/afvb/images/imported/2013/05/1360.jpg (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-18/cracked-earth-in-drought-conditions/4267900)


https://www.aulro.com/afvb/images/imported/2013/05/1361.jpg (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-25/farming-dust-ploughing-drought-crop-generic-thumbnailjpg/4332676)

https://www.aulro.com/afvb/images/imported/2013/05/1362.jpg (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-23/nrn-drought-declaration/4643978)

https://www.aulro.com/afvb/images/imported/2013/05/1363.jpg (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-29/dry-kynunajpg/4657620)



Gallery: Drought taking hold in Australia in 2013 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-02/drought-gallery/4665528)

In the Northern Territory (http://www.abc.net.au/rural/content/2013/s3716488.htm) producers are suffering on multiple counts - both from the decline in income from the cessation of live exports, combined with a lack of rainfall and little to no wet season.
There's barely a trace of two good seasons left as some regions look at a quarter of the pasture growth of previous years.
Some farmers across the north are looking at a massive shift in how their businesses work - from the boom years where live exports to Indonesia were like rivers of gold, to the current struggle where properties are staying on the market for years at a time and many are struggling to make ends meet.
But they're also fighting back, as heard at an influential women's forum (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-01/ntch-influential-women/4663388) this week.
Organiser of the forum, Catherine Marriott, says the live cattle industry's reputation was severely damaged after images of animal cruelty emerged from Indonesian abattoirs in 2011.
She says it's now up to producers to regain the "social licence" to operate.
"Farmers are doing the right thing, they do care for their land, they contribute to their local communities, they're doing amazing things with the environment, but they're not very good at communicating that," she said.

"Farmers are doing the right thing, they do care for their land, they contribute to their local communities, they're doing amazing things with the environment, but they're not very good at communicating that,"

Catherine Marriott, Influential Women's Forum


"The good thing is that to build trust with consumers, producers don't actually need to change what they're doing, because they're doing the right things, they just need to become aware of the language they use and the way they engage with consumers to share the positive stories about how they care for their animals, the environment, their community and so on."
In Victoria (http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/201305/s3749078.htm), where Anzac Day marks the traditional start to the planting season, the ground is dry and hard.
There's been little to no good rain since last year's AFL Grand Final - and that dry start to a sowing season is throwing up plenty of challenges.
Not only is it a concern for those risking planting crops, but it's also affecting the condition of livestock for meat and for wool.
Similarly in Western Australia, grain growers and graziers are coming to terms with what the Bureau of Meteorology is calling a direct result of climate change.
That's the years of below-average rainfall and drier conditions - with fewer wet years in between.
At a recent crisis meeting in Merredin, Queensland University of Technology senior lecturer in economics and finance Dr Mark McGovern spoke to farmers.
Dr McGovern says the current plight in WA farming is a serious situation that needs urgent Federal Government attention.

"The banks have plenty of money to lend; it's whether or not the customer has the capacity to borrow."

Stephen Carroll, Australian Bankers Association


"When growers can't get planting finance, that's something which hasn't happened, I understand, since the Great Depression. So we've got a fairly critical issue which needs to be resolved quite quickly."
A recent report by brokerage and investment firm CLSA warned that falling asset values are leaving Australian banks overexposed to farmer debt.
Stephen Carroll from the Australian Banking Association says this partly explains lenders' reluctance to finance this season's crop.
But Mr Carroll says changes to the Federal Government's drought policy are also a factor.
"The banks have plenty of money to lend; it's whether or not the customer has the capacity to borrow.
"There has been a significant change in government policy in recent times. In the past, there have been policies to support farmers planting crops, replanting grants and low-interest subsidies.
"There has been a change (and) when those policies are not in place, it does make it more difficult for banks managing customers in financial difficulty."

[Yorkie]

nz is having a dry spell also, slowing the crops over there reducing exports.

[zulu Delta 534]

When I was a youngster I could never quite understand my older relatives trying to tell me that, what I thought at the time to be earth ****tering news, had all happened before, but alas, as you get older you find yourself saying exactly the same thing.

This following shot is taken from a book published in the late sixties and is pretty typical as to what I remember as being the norm back in those days across vast expanses of Australia
https://www.aulro.com/afvb/images/imported/2013/05/1355.jpg
With all the intelligentsia out there, one would wonder why we still carry on with the types of agriculture that we do when we have in excess of 200 odd years of experience of these types of weather patterns to fall back on as reference. (even though some may be "pre computer"!)
Regards
Glen

PS The word that shows up as a "swear word" in the above post is actually a derivative of the verb "to ****ter" meaning to break, or smash, and which I always thought was common English........ but apparently not!
At least I have now learnt that there is a past tense for the four letter word meaning to defecate!

[Mick_Marsh]

Average rainfall is down.
Droughts are getting more frequent.
Climate change has been upon us since the earth got one.
Get used to it.

[Tote]

We've had 3 pretty good years in Yass, this year we have only had scattered storms since summer and while town is looking dry our farm 50K north has a green tinge due to an inch or so a few weeks back.
Regardless of climate change this has always been the pattern in this country and if you get 3 good years out of five you are in front.
If you want to see green all year round move to England or Louisiana....

Regards,
Tote

[Yorkie]

We've had 3 pretty good years in Yass, this year we have only had scattered storms since summer and while town is looking dry our farm 50K north has a green tinge due to an inch or so a few weeks back.
Regardless of climate change this has always been the pattern in this country and if you get 3 good years out of five you are in front.
If you want to see green all year round move to England or Louisiana....

Regards,
Tote

yass sounds nice, relatives have taken over the globe inn last year, must get there for a visit. :)

[JDNSW]

No rain at all in April, good fall at the beginning of March, but not much before that since July last year - only thing going for us was the high soil moisture from the wet summer before that. But this is now pretty much dried out, not helped by a long hot summer.

Getting very dusty, and quite a few paddocks round here showing more bare ground than feed. Most people here are hand feeding already. I am beginning to get worried about house water - with five extras, water supplies are down to lower than at any time since I moved in almost twenty years ago.

John

[stallie]

Since the third child was born, yes.

[Chucaro]

Since I left the Wide Bay area (Qld) I appreciate dry weather, the only drought that I notice is in the fridge and bottle rack. I have to watch the blood pressure :(

[mick88]

So far this year 30mm in total for us, where as same time last year we had 180mm. The ground (highly reactive soil) is becoming very parched with large cracks opening up and I also notice a few cracks reappearing in the brickwork of the house. They appeared during the last long drought and closed up after the 230 mm deluge we got in February 2011.

Not looking good!


Cheers, Mick.

[incisor]

yep

it is under the 3 inches of water lying in the park out the back!

[JDNSW]

Another point - I have dams going dry that did not go dry even in the long drought. And I have no stock now!

John

[schuy1]

No drought where I am :D But I am feeling the impact from elswhere. stock prices have taken a dive across the board due to western drought forcing stock onto the markets coupled with the cessation of the live export drying up an outlet. Weaner steers sold in Longreach for $20 yesterday! :o ( watch your city meat prices reflect that .....NOT!) So not good if you have a debt!

Cheers Scott

[wrinklearthur]

There is a green drought in my district of Broadmarsh.

To explain, there is only a small shoot of grass showing, which could suit a few sheep but nowhere the bulk of feed required for cattle or normal stocking rates for sheep.

There are farmers that have been caught with the prices for their cattle dropping sharply when they tried to reduce numbers by selling.

Heavy soils have cracks in them and the sandy soils have dust blowing from them.

.

[mikehzz]

We haven't been able to easily get into the desert for 2 years because it has been too wet. The Birdsville inside track, Walkers Crossing and Warburton Crossing have only just reopened after being closed for a very long time due to water. I've noticed that if we get unusually hot weather that places like Europe will have a corresponding cold snap. The idea that some sort of extreme weather event 'sucks' the weather from elsewhere does make sense to me. :)

[DiscoMick]

The wife's vegie garden had been suffering a drought, so she installed a new sprinkler system and decided to try it out last night. Unfortunately, she hadn't fitted the timer and forgot to turn it off. Got a phone call from the neighbours about 10pm asking if we were causing the flood going past their kitchen door! There goes the water bill...:eek:

[stallie]

I've noticed that if we get unusually hot weather that places like Europe will have a corresponding cold snap. The idea that some sort of extreme weather event 'sucks' the weather from elsewhere does make sense to me.


Mike, I don't think any connections have been conclusively made that far, but there is an inverse relationship between the snowfall in Antarctica around Casey Station (specifically Law Dome which is a large flat mountain around 100km away) and the SW WA wheatbelt. Increased snowfall in Antarctica corresponded with a decrease in rainfall in SW WA.

We are only just discovering these links.

Antarctic snowfall linked to West Australian drought (http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/antarctic-snowfall-linked-to-west-australian-drought-20101025-170ml.html)

[DiscoMick]

Tassie people insisted when Queensland gets cyclones Tassie misses out. I have no idea if that's true, but it was interesting...

[George130]

Yes.
Bought this place during a drought and a year later is became a bog that never dried out. This year it is dry again and we only had to mow the lawn twice this summer.

[d2dave]

Heard some one on the wireless a couple of days ago talking about the drought. He reckons that we get one roughly every 7 years. It is about 7 years since the last one.

[TerryO]

Was up in Port Stephens two weekends ago, all the road side culverts where full of water, as per usual and plenty of feed everywhere. Down here in Goulburn, its starting to dry out but in general pretty good feed still for this time of year. Still we have had bugger all rain so far this year.

Drove down the highway from Goulburn to Benalla / Winton today and half way there its nearly a dust bowl again like it was six or seven years ago. Mind you many of the paddocks were still carrying large stock numbers and they looked the worst by far.

Down across the border not far into Vic there are several properties on the side of the highway with very large dams that have been full for several years, now they are near empty. It's easy to forget that this is a country of boom and bust when it comes to rain.

Shouldn't forget the old El Niño and La Niña effect on our climate and rainfall patterns which has been going on for millennium.

Climate Variability and El Nino (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/elnino/elnino.shtml)

[DiscoMick]

Pic in the Courier Mail of a drought-stricken farmer who is hand-feeding stock, so its on, it seems.

[Mick_Marsh]

Heard some one on the wireless a couple of days ago talking about the drought. He reckons that we get one roughly every 7 years. It is about 7 years since the last one.
We've been three years coming out of the last one that lasted over ten years. Still not returned to normal weather patterns yet.

[ramblingboy42]

One of my biggest concerns is the high suicide rate among graziers at the moment. That they cannot cope anymore and get the support they need here worries me. I know quite a number of cockies around the centre of this country and I hate the thought of one of them being next.....decent hard working blokes shouldn't have to come to this while fat arsed politicians try to decide where to have dinner and cocktails and who to try to influence most for their votes.

[Homestar]

We had 80mm of rain overnight! Almost had to give the dogs a lifejacket each when they went out this morning.:D. Hope some of it fell where it's needed... Looks like some decent rain through the western part of the state as well.

[Mick_Marsh]

Glad someone got it.
18mm in my rain gauge this morning.

[Homestar]

I think the heaviest rain band was from Kyneton down through here - very heavy of the radar for several hours - red and black on the radar, but it looked like it was raining pretty much everywhere.

Pretty good thunderstorm as well - it went right over the top of us.

[greg smith]

We've had 3 pretty good years in Yass, this year we have only had scattered storms since summer and while town is looking dry our farm 50K north has a green tinge due to an inch or so a few weeks back.
Regardless of climate change this has always been the pattern in this country and if you get 3 good years out of five you are in front.
If you want to see green all year round move to England or Louisiana....

Regards,
Tote

or move to wet north queensland

[greg smith]

Was up in Port Stephens two weekends ago, all the road side culverts where full of water, as per usual and plenty of feed everywhere. Down here in Goulburn, its starting to dry out but in general pretty good feed still for this time of year. Still we have had bugger all rain so far this year.

Drove down the highway from Goulburn to Benalla / Winton today and half way there its nearly a dust bowl again like it was six or seven years ago. Mind you many of the paddocks were still carrying large stock numbers and they looked the worst by far.

Down across the border not far into Vic there are several properties on the side of the highway with very large dams that have been full for several years, now they are near empty. It's easy to forget that this is a country of boom and bust when it comes to rain.

Shouldn't forget the old El Niño and La Niña effect on our climate and rainfall patterns which has been going on for millennium.

Climate Variability and El Nino (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/elnino/elnino.shtml)

I remember that bloody climate around Goulburn COLD WET DRY WINDY great pub weather during winter, dry hot during summer, great road that leads north

[d2dave]

13 MM in my gauge. It is not finished yet. Very black out side, not a good day to be going to the footy.

Looking at the radar there is a large rain band sitting just east of me which is over the catchments.

This is the forecast for my town.

Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times, easing to a shower or two at night. The chance of a thunderstorm until later tonight. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h tending south to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.

128 km Yarrawonga Radar Loop (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR493.loop.shtml#skip)

[ramblingboy42]

or move to wet north queensland

correct that to wet NE Qld.....go 2-300km west of Malanda and its bone dry.
same for the Mexicans getting 18-20mm of rain.....there are OTHER parts of Australia you know....where they haven't seen 18mm in 2 years.

[snowbound]

No drought where I am :D But I am feeling the impact from elswhere. stock prices have taken a dive across the board due to western drought forcing stock onto the markets coupled with the cessation of the live export drying up an outlet. Weaner steers sold in Longreach for $20 yesterday! :o ( watch your city meat prices reflect that .....NOT!) So not good if you have a debt!

Cheers Scott

"Cheap" mince today in woolies $8 /kg :mad:

[Mick_Marsh]

Yet another knee jerk reaction.
This morning, The Merri Creek was expected to peak at 5m at 11:00am. It actually peaked at 3m. The heavy falls were very localised.

And the rainfall came on the back of one of Adelaide's warmest autumns on record.

[33chinacars]

2.6mm this morning & 2.8mm yesterday. So not much here

[Mick_Marsh]

I think Nhill got about ten and Horsham got about twenty.

[1976_michelle]

get back to yer after winter (prior to now my answer would be 'yes'. Ive been agisting at the same place in Harcourt for over 7 years and never, ever have I seen an autumn round out like this one did re browness of the paddocks. dry, late heat etc. Though the last couple days deluge has maybe put that on hold and weather boffins are predicting an above average rainfall winter)

[greg smith]

14mm Friday,20mm yesterday----saw the sun this morning around 7--overcast again but definite chance that we may see some sunshine again sometime today may dry the track out abit!!!!!
WHAT A PLACE 100km inland from here they are hand feeding cattle

[d2dave]

It is all finished here. We got just on an inch(25mm)

[Sparksdisco]

up here in Porthedland it never rains, even in the wet season something pushes all the rain around us. People think it's the large iron ore stockpiles creating a magnetic field pushing it away. it is strange if you look into the rain figures for Hedland

Anyway it's been 5 years for me in Hedland and the past couple of weeks it's been the the dampest in that 5 years.
I don't know it's the cycle that's normal for up here or not but it's a bit strange having rain so late and for continual days up here.

[d2dave]

Where is Porthedland?

[Xtreme]

Where is Porthedland?

Port Hedland - approx 20.5 deg S 118.5 deg E

[d2dave]

I know where Port Hedland is. I was asking about Porthedland

[Sparksdisco]

I know where Port Hedland is. I was asking about Porthedland

so i missed a space get a life

most people spell it port headland.

[d2dave]

Don't tell me to get a life. Learn English. It is not just the space it is also capitol letters.

It reads Porth ed land. I understand and can accept a typo, but you have this also in your profile.

[wrinklearthur]

:confused:
...

[Sparksdisco]

Don't tell me to get a life. Learn English. It is not just the space it is also capitol :confused::confused::confused: letters.

It reads Porth ed land. I understand and can accept a typo, but you have this also in your profile.


prehaps we get back to the subject at hand and not worry about English