The BOM cannot get tomorrow's weather right

[PhilipA]

Well all the "rain" has now inundated Sydney as promised by the BOM.

We on the Central Coast at Avoca would have been lucky to get 5MM, just enough to be a nuisance and not putting even 25MM in the tank compared with the forecast of 50MM over the 3days. I noted 3.2MM for Sydney today from 9AM.

Hmmm, are these the same people who are forecasting future El Nino etc?
Regards Philip A

[ramblingboy42]

Anything over 20 mins in duration is rain.

Under 20 it's a shower.

Did you have rain or showers?

If you had rain they were right.

[Bushie]

It has been raining here all day, but I think we would be lucky to have had 5mm, just been that continual light annoying stuff.
Overall I think the BoM do a fairly good job, rainfall amounts is one of the harder things to predict.


Martyn

[bee utey]

Well all the "rain" has now inundated Sydney as promised by the BOM.

We on the Central Coast at Avoca would have been lucky to get 5MM, just enough to be a nuisance and not putting even 25MM in the tank compared with the forecast of 50MM over the 3days. I noted 3.2MM for Sydney today from 9AM.

Hmmm, are these the same people who are forecasting future El Nino etc?
Regards Philip A

If you've ever looked closely at a rainfall forecast, you'd note a range of rain amounts and an estimate of the probability of rain.

If you've ever looked at the weather radar you'd notice that rain often comes from things like "storms" or "lumps" so your rainfall could be quite different to the amount that fell 10km to the north of you.

https://www.aulro.com/afvb/images/imported/2014/02/691.jpg

I wouldn't go blaming the BOM for your failure to understand what weather works like.;)

[C00P]

If you've ever looked at the weather radar you'd notice that rain often comes from things like "storms" or "lumps" so your rainfall could be quite different to the amount that fell 10km to the north of you.


Or even 1km if it comes to that....

We certainly had rain here yesterday. Very strong winds a day or two before put heaps of leaves, bark and other debris on the ground. Then the rain washed it all into the gutters. Hence, blocked storm water drains and flooding all over the place. All this, when two days before it was 40+ degrees. At least it put the fires out....

Coop

[PhilipA]

Anything over 20 mins in duration is rain.
Hmmm I don't know.When at night it is so light that you cannot hear it, but probably not over 20 minutes during the day. BUT rain periods should mean rain periods when we only got drizzle and the BOM does have a category of drizzle.

I guess the point I am making is that if the BOM with all its supercomputers and models cannot get the weather magnitude right the next day what hope have climate models?

I recall once when I was riding my motorcycle to work I used to check the radar before going . The radar showed no clouds and the forecast was fine.
I got drenched going to work, and when I emailed them and said how come , they replied that the radar did not show rain , only clouds and that it did not show clouds under 3000ft(AFAIR) , so tough luck.

I am quite aware that weather ( and climate) forecasting are difficult and perhaps should be couched in probability terms, but the BOM does not do that on their website or on the part I look at anyway.

[ramblingboy42]

BOM fact.....over 20 mins duration is rain.

Wondering why you are making these statements if you don't know......

It IS couched in probabilty terms.....right in front of me on BOM forecast it shows the possibility of rain expressed as a percentage.

cheeese.......

[shining]

We haven't had rain, showers or drizzle for 4 weeks. The BOM said this weekend would be wet and they are 100% right and I am 100% happy. About 30mm so far and still coming down. By and large they get it pretty right. We live on the edge of two forecast districts our weather is a mixture of both forecasts depending upon prevailing winds etc. When I look at the radar during rain events the variability is quite noticeable and with the long views from our place and neighbours reports when storm cells come through the difference can go from 2mm to 25mm over the space of 2kms.

[PhilipA]

Hallelujah it is now raining.
My post was successful. Just as good as going camping.
Of Course last night at 11Pm the BOM was saying rain periods, but this morning rain. This is for Gosford which is the nearest on their website interactive map.
They must have looked out the window.
Regards Philip A

[buckscreek]

Weather forecasting and climate modelling are two completely different things. Weather and climate are not the same. Climate is what we expect. Long term. Weather is what we experience. Short term.


Take the BoM material as it is intended. Take the time to read the disclaimers and supporting information. Try to understand that predicting what the weather might be like is based on probabilities supported by actual data being experienced and is not intended to tell you exactly what will happen. Learn to read the weather charts and understand what the information they present might mean for you in your location.


Rainfall prediction for my location today is 100% chance of between 10-20mm. Exactly right. Gotta be happy with that.

[StephenF10]

BOM fact.....over 20 mins duration is rain.


Wrong. The type of cloud involved is what defines the type of precipitation. Rain falls from stratiform cloud, showers fall from cumuliform cloud. Duration isn't part of the definition but rain will always last longer than a shower.

[Mick_Marsh]

BOM fact.....over 20 mins duration is rain.

Wondering why you are making these statements if you don't know......

Wrong. The type of cloud involved is what defines the type of precipitation. Rain falls from stratiform cloud, showers fall from cumuliform cloud. Duration isn't part of the definition but rain will always last longer than a shower.
You are both wrong.
It is merely your opinion until you put up links to where you got that information from so it can be evaluated.

[Pinelli]

what hope have climate models?[/COLOR]
[

Other way around. Climate is easier to predict than weather. Weather is like the short term noise in the climate. Plus it helps to understand some statistics before being too critical of weather and climate predictions.

[shining]

Rain falls from stratiform cloud, showers fall from cumuliform cloud. Duration isn't part of the definition but rain will always last longer than a shower.

Wrong? The world is rarely black or white.
Your definition is correct, but really means nothing to the "great unwashed" (could be a pun in there somewhere). Both forms of precipitation vary from light to very heavy in intensity. The difference to me is duration and BOM says showers last up to 30 minutes. Anything longer I (and I suspect the weather- lads and lassies) would call "rain". If it rains for an hour or so in the morning and again in the afternoon that might be called " rain periods".

http://www.bom.gov.au/info/wwords/

[shining]

Other way around. Climate is easier to predict than weather. Weather is like the short term noise in the climate. Plus it helps to understand some statistics before being too critical of weather and climate predictions.

The other way to look at it is one is done by a Meteorologist the other by a Climate Scientist (might be a more technical term?). Similar relationship to to an Electrician and an Electrical Engineer. Dealing with the same stuff on a different scale.

[Ausfree]

Had light rain here all day, thank God. It's been very dry over the last few weeks and any rain is a plus!!!!:)

[ramblingboy42]

One of the worst things to tell people in forums is that they are wrong.

I admit my time statement of a shower was out by a few minutes but I wasn't WRONG.

The BOM now says showers usually last less than a half hour....was I WRONG?

[Mick_Marsh]

One of the worst things to tell people in forums is that they are wrong.

I admit my time statement of a shower was out by a few minutes but I wasn't WRONG.

The BOM now says showers usually last less than a half hour....was I WRONG?
Well, where is the link to the information that supports your opinion?
Where on the BOM website defines these terms?

I'm not saying you are wrong. I just want to see the supporting documentation before I accept your opinion as fact.

[shining]

One of the worst things to tell people in forums is that they are wrong.

I admit my time statement of a shower was out by a few minutes but I wasn't WRONG.

The BOM now says showers usually last less than a half hour....was I WRONG?

No you weren't wrong. Your definition was the best one presented. I think the best explanations are those which relate to the audience with meaningful data, which you did.
Wrong is a word that rarely applies....especially on this forum.;)

[Bushie]

Direct from the BoM glossary
Bureau - Glossary of Terms (http://reg.bom.gov.au/lam/glossary/)

Rain

Precipitation of liquid water drops greater than 0.5 mm in diameter. In contrast to showers, it is steadier and normally falls from stratiform (layer) cloud.

Showers

Precipitation, often short-lived (but may last half an hour) and heavy, falling from convective clouds. Usually begin and end suddenly.

Drizzle

Fairly uniform precipitation (rain) composed exclusively of very small water droplets (less than 0.5 mm in diameter) very close to one another.


Martyn

[ramblingboy42]

see post#15 , not my post but the link is there.

[Mick_Marsh]

see post#15 , not my post but the link is there.
Yep. Thanks. Shining was sneaky adding the link after I read the post.

[42rangie]

Weather forecasting!

My BIL is with the NOAA at Cleveland Hopkins Airport. I always tell him that he is paid by the government to lie to people! :D:D::D

Les

[PhilipA]

I started this post quite " tongue in cheek" but was stung by comments that I didn't know how to read a weather map.

By the information posted since I would definitely class the first 3 days "rain" as "drizzle" with less than 4MM per day.

Seeing I always look at the "7 day forecast" I decided to look for where other posters got their probability info.
At 10PM last night I looked at the "MetEye " section and immediately picked up a pretty large inconsistency in the rainfall figures for Avoca Beach. As it was raining heavily at the time I looked and saw that the probability of rain at 11PM was 20% and it was still raining at 11pm. So much for that.

The "rain since 9AM " figure showed 16.2MM AFAIR .

I thought that we had much more rain than that and went to the Sydney radar which showed Avoca Beach in a 25-30 MM band and just bordering a 30-35MM band, so one would expect about 28-29MM.

When I looked at the MetEye , Avoca Beach again I noted that it said that data was collected from Norah Head which is over 20Km away. The weather radar rainfall data page showed Norah Head as having 15-20MM.

So I suggest it was chance that led to the other poster finding that the rainfall received in his area was the same as noted by BOM unless he has a weather station very close. So the BOM site appears to be internally inconsistent .

I believe that it is perhaps overreach by the BOM to produce data for every area when the area is quite a distance from the weather station.

As I CAN read weather maps and also deduce probability of rain from radar images, I generally use Gosford as a max temp guide of 5-6C from forecast temps as I have found this over time and empirical checking of my external temp sensor to be accurate.
Similarly , over the 8 years I have been here I have found that the probability of rain from the west at Avoca is quite different to Norah Head. Showers and storms for some reason often split west of Gosford and head either East into Broken Bay or North to you guessed it Norah Head. Probably due to the topography.
I wondered why the BOM did not use Gosford weather station as it is only about 10 Km , but now the weather station has apparently been moved from the old Agricultural station at Narara to the new Ag testing station at Mangrove Mountain ( BOM says Mangrove Mountain ) which probably makes it further away than Norah Head.
It would be good to know whether it is going to rain "tomorrow'" as my wife cancelled her golf on Saturday on the strength of the BOM advice and I held off watering my external potplants until I was forced to when the "drizzle" hardly wet the surface of the pots. Not earth shattering stuff but It is great that it finally did rain and my tank is now 3/4 full.
I feel a bit sorry for the scooter rider I saw on Avoca Drive in the pouring rain on Sunday and the woman running drenched along the road, as I guess they had concluded that the promised rain would never come.
Regards Philip A

[ramblingboy42]

Phillip A , I think you've got to the point where you need to be discussing your meteorological questions with the Bureau of Meteorology itself or with a Meteorologist.

You don't want to accept any information sourced by Aulro members even though it's straight from BOM websites.

I choose to retire from this thread......now.

[PhilipA]

Rambling boy , its not that serious! LOL
I have discussed with the BOM in the past as I posted and I was given a nonsensical answer.
Why bother ?
BTW today was nothing like as forecast yesterday either . Morning showers 40% possibility of rain for Gosford. Not a cloud in the sky after about 10AM and glorious sunshine.

My wife had a great game of golf despite fears of being caught in a shower.

Don't you ever notice when the forecasts are very wrong?

Regards Philip A

[Mick_Marsh]

Don't you ever notice when the forecasts are very wrong?
When Richard Stubbs asked Ward Rooney why they got the weather so wrong, Ward replied "We get it 20% right 80% of the time" (or was that 80% right 20% of the time).

[vnx205]

BTW today was nothing like as forecast yesterday either . Morning showers 40% possibility of rain for Gosford. Not a cloud in the sky after about 10AM and glorious sunshine.

My wife had a great game of golf despite fears of being caught in a shower.

Doesn't a 40% chance of a bit of rain mean a 60% chance of missing out?

[303gunner]

The difference to me is duration and BOM says showers last up to 30 minutes. Anything longer I would call "rain".
I will print this out. I get in trouble in the morning if a "Shower" lasts longer than a "Coffee".

[UncleHo]

I am pleased that we got 102mm last night in a storm,at least it put a little bit of moisture into the ground and topped up the tank :)

[C00P]

When I looked at the MetEye , Avoca Beach again I noted that it said that data was collected from Norah Head which is over 20Km away. The weather radar rainfall data page showed Norah Head as having 15-20MM.



MetEye has a disclaimer that it is an experimental service. You're a bit tough basing your criticisms on a service that they declare to be experimental (and is therefore likely to include errors as they work out the bugs).

Forecasting is an inexact science. I suggest you pay a visit to your local met bureau and see how it's done. I found that very interesting, and they were quite candid about when they can get good results, and what weather systems still give them trouble. Here in Adelaide, they have problems with forecasting the impact of troughs which sometimes produce large variations in precipitation. As a pilot, I rely on their forecasts whenever I take to the air and I find they are pretty accurate most of the time.

Coop

[mns488]

Bureau of Meteorology braces for flak after it failed to warn of 'super cell' storm and flash floods.

Bureau of Meteorology prepares to cop flak for failing to forecast Geelong storm (http://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/bureau-of-meteorology-prepares-to-cop-flak-for-failing-to-forecast-geelong-storm-20140220-332dq.html)

[d2dave]

You are both wrong.
It is merely your opinion until you put up links to where you got that information from so it can be evaluated.

Mick, just because they have not given links to support their claims does not mean that they are wrong, although one has to be as they are differing.

It is a bit like me saying that a lot of LR's leak oil. Just because I don't support my opinion, in this case I am still right.

As for the BOM, I generally reckon they do a bloody good job.

[PhilipA]

MetEye has a disclaimer that it is an experimental service. You're a bit
tough basing your criticisms on a service that they declare to be experimental
(and is therefore likely to include errors as they work out the bugs).


I only quoted Meteye because another poster criticised me for not knowing the percentage chance of rain etc, as I was going from the 7 day forecast page which doesn't have that data , and AFAIR challenged me to look at the whole site which I did.
But the 7 Day Forecast page was also wrong but not wrong in as much detail as Meteye.LOL and of course Meteye was also inconsistent with the radar map of rainfall from 9AM which is an observation , not a forecast.

Regards Philip A

[350RRC]

In my lines of work (outdoor, ocean or freshwater) I use Windguru AND Willyweather for the location and maybe 2 - 7 days advance (which continually changes as you would expect), and cross reference with something like this from BOM:

Water and the Land: Forecast Rainfall (http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp)

Thunderstorms are always an issue with even 24 hr forecasting.

Places 10km either side of my farm yesterday got 50+ mm and I got 12 in the same timeframe.

cheers, DL

[Mick_Marsh]

Mick, just because they have not given links to support their claims does not mean that they are wrong, although one has to be as they are differing.

It is a bit like me saying that a lot of LR's leak oil. Just because I don't support my opinion, in this case I am still right.

As for the BOM, I generally reckon they do a bloody good job.
Fact: something that is true.

I have five Landrovers. They do not leak oil. For you to say that it is fact that a lot of Landrovers leak oil, do you blame me for wanting you to back that up with evidence or some sort of credible report that has evaluated the evidence. In my world, Landrovers don't leak fluids but there is always a large fresh patch of some sort of fluid sitting under the Mercedes.

My mate John the other day said to me "Landrovers are the most unreliable vehicle around". I've had a bloody good run with mine. Also, knowing his ever reliable Territory was rendered unmovable when it hemorrhaged it's transmission fluid all over the unsealed road, I decided to challenge his statement and ask for the evidence. As it turns out, it was a newspaper article that had no evidence and was based little in fact. They were discussing electronics which my Landrovers have none.

What am I trying to say. People generally misrepresent their opinions as fact. There are a number of threads on this forum alone that are nothing other than misrepresented opinions. Is it any wonder I challenge people to back up their "facts" with some sort of evidence or corroboration. If we didn't do that, we'd probably still be thinking the
earth was flat.

Oh, for the record, I know people who work at the BOM. Weather prediction is a difficult science. The shorter the outlook, the more accurate they can get it. They do a great job.

[shining]

I will print this out. I get in trouble in the morning if a "Shower" lasts longer than a "Coffee".

:D:D:D the young people in my family tend to have morning "rains" rather than showers.:Rolling::Rolling::Rolling:

[bob10]

Far be it for me to let facts get in the way of a good story, but perhaps a little education could help here, Bob


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Why can't I save a location marker? (http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/includes/meteye-faq-body.html#) Your browser may be set to reject cookies and as such saving the MetEye location makers will not be possible unless you choose to change these settings. Cookies are nothing more than tiny bits of text stored on your computer by your web browser and are specific to a browser. They server many functions however the MetEye cookies save your user specified saved location markers. Some web browsers can support up to 300 cookies, depending on their size of each cookie.
Why can't I see the tropicial cyclone menu? (http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/includes/meteye-faq-body.html#) MetEye will display all active cyclone tracks issued by the Bureau in its area of geographic responsibility. The menu and associated legend will only appear as a selectable item in MetEye when a tropical cyclone is active in the Australian region of responsibility.
What are the text views? Do they contain different information and why are they provided? (http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/includes/meteye-faq-body.html#) These text views are a type of local weather dashboard which provide an alternative views of many of the data sets displayed in the map in MetEye. This view of the graphical information attempts to meet the government's inclusive practice of making websites usable by all people. The text views of the map data has been developed to meet Commonwealth Accessibility guidelines as the Australian Federal Government requires agencies to implement new accessibility standards on all government websites.
What data elements do the text views contain? (http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/includes/meteye-faq-body.html#) The text views which are available via MetEye provide the following data elements in a tabular format:

A national landing page with capital city forecast and observational data.
State and territory based landing pages proving an overview summary of major cities within a state.
A location based observational summary based on the nearest automatic weather station.
A location based forecast summary based on the gridded data sets in MetEye.
The appropriate city, own, district or coastal waters forecast based on the location that has been chosen.
A static radar overview which links to the current text based satellite note.
A static location map that provides linkages to the nearest Bureau radars.


Will MetEye and the text view versions work on a smart phone or tablet? (http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/includes/meteye-faq-body.html#) MetEye and the text views have not been specifically designed or optimised for the array of web browsers on mobile platforms.
Mobile browsing generally demands a different method of map navigation and no guarantees can be offered. Please ensure that JavaScript is enabled in the browser if you want use this service on a mobile platform.
Why can't I see more than one latest weather layer, or more than one forecast layer on the map at the same time? (http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/includes/meteye-faq-body.html#) MetEye allows some data types to be overlaid on top of each other, but there are some restrictions on the amount of data that can be shown at once. The restrictions should ensure maps are readable and understandable.
The forecast layers which appear on the map are for the most part continuous grids covering all points in the map area with solid colours, so there is no way to show two layers as one would cover the other fully.
Why is there a difference between the place name I searched for and the place name displayed in MetEye? (http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/includes/meteye-faq-body.html#) In MetEye, location search information is derived from several databases, ranging from country-level to state, city and postcode level - each with varying degrees of accuracy (generally higher at the country level).
Postcodes are usually not unique to a forecast grid "cell" in MetEye, so after searching for a specific location you may find that the place name displayed - for instance in the popup window's title - is not exactly what you expected. The location returned should be close to the location you searched for however. The "Saved Location" marker label is centred in the postcode's forecast grid cell.
Also, you should be aware that in some geographical areas extra data has been added to the database, supplementing postcode information.
Why did "Find Me" return the wrong location? (http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/includes/meteye-faq-body.html#) The "Find Me" button does a location search based on GPS or the address database (GeoIP) and can sometimes return the location of the Internet Provider used rather than your location.
Due to the nature of geo-location technology (and other factors beyond our control), the Bureau of Meteorology cannot guarantee a specific level of accuracy when location based searches are initiated in MetEye.
GeoIP databases will in most cases correctly identify locations at the level of accuracy indicated for Australia at http://www.maxmind.com/en/city_accuracy (http://www.maxmind.com/en/city_accuracy).
For mobile devices, the location accuracy depends on the data source used by your device.

GPS accuracy can be down to several metres depending on your GPS signal and connection. Your device must support GPS and it must be enabled. You must allow MetEye access to GPS and to use your location.
WiFi (wireless network) accuracy should be similar to the access range of a typical WiFi router - about 200m or better. Your device must support WiFi and it must enabled.
Cell ID (mobile phone tower) accuracy depends on mobile phone tower density and available data in Google's Cell ID (cell tower) location database. Accuracy may be approximated at distances up to several thousand metres. Note: Some devices do not support cell ID location.

Tip: on some devices you can improve location accuracy by turning on WiFi (wireless network), especially when indoors where the GPS signal is weak.

[discovery39]

Nobody should be bagging the BOM.
Maybe the people who are critical of it would like it privatized, coz we all know how well that works.......
And the people who say they use different methods (or Apps) for their weather.......................where do you think the above mentioned methods/Apps get all the information they use......?

Leave the BOM ALONE!