Auroras Down South

[ramblingboy42]

This weekend should see a display of Aurora Borealis in Australia's most southern zones.

Two spectacular CME's.....explosions from a large sunspot.....have hurled a whole lot energy towards Earth.

This should appear over Fri/Sat/Sun nights as auroras.

So if you're way down south go out and look out at night over the weekend.

Clever photographers may get some very good photos.

ps. there may be more coming from some other active sunspots.

goto SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids (http://www.spaceweather.com) for further info and technical talk.

[Jojo]

How often do you get this show down there? Just curious.

[ramblingboy42]

Whenever a sunspot throws a CME big enough to make it happen.

[JDNSW]

And if the CME is sufficiently large, and does hit earth, consider what you are going to do after the weekend following the failure of most power distribution systems, most telecommunications, and most satellites worldwide.

The last really big one known to hit earth was about 150 years ago - and caused major damage to the then infant telegraph system. The same thing today would destroy key parts of almost anything connected to long stretches of wire - in other words all power distribution systems, and most telecommunications. A bit of an unknown to what extent satellites would be affected - they are usually hardened against this sort of thing, and don't have long wires attached to them to pick up induced currents from the resulting geomagnetic storm, but it is likely that in many cases their defences against the high velocity particles would be overwhelmed.

John

[workingonit]

So should D4 owners build faraday garage cages out of defunct series ones...:)

Or is it hollywood hype that modern motor vehicles would be rendered useless - given the need to be connected to a power grid sufficient to be energised?

[JDNSW]

Probably not a problem for vehicles (unless you have a plug in electric one that is plugged in at the time) directly. The major vulnerability is the power distribution systems, because there is likely to be very high DC currents induced in the long stretches of wire as the geomagnetic field changes rapidly. These currents may cause destruction of some sections of wire, but more critically, are likely to cause the destruction of a large proportion of the very large transformers at each end of the major distribution lines. Very few spares of these exist, because they are so expensive, and production of replacements is not going to happen quickly, even without disruption to society.

But without these, many areas would be without power - which means no fuel available at the service station, which in turn means no goods distribution after a few days at best. How long will any modern city survive without this?

It is not a matter of whether a sufficiently large CME is going to hit earth, but when.

John

[ramblingboy42]

but in the meantime JDNSW , you soothsayer of doom......enjoy the lights.

satellites are protected and are systematically shut down as the storm passes and only minor interruptions occur to essential services in the worst of it all

some tv pixillation and radio static may be heard in the lower frequencies but essential communication networks are well aware of CMEs and have plans in place for interruptions at all times.

really...no doom , no gloom , just pretty skies.

[korg20000bc]

In the past 10 years I've seen the Aurora Australis twice here in Tasmania.

It may have happened more often, though.

[JDNSW]

.......

satellites are protected and are systematically shut down as the storm passes and only minor interruptions occur to essential services in the worst of it all

some tv pixillation and radio static may be heard in the lower frequencies but essential communication networks are well aware of CMEs and have plans in place for interruptions at all times.

really...no doom , no gloom , just pretty skies.

"The solar storm of 1859, also known as the Carrington Event,[1] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859#cite_note-severespaceweather-1) was a powerful geomagnetic solar storm (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_solar_storm) in 1859 during solar cycle 10 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_10). A solar coronal mass ejection (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection) hit Earth's magnetosphere (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_magnetosphere) and induced one of the largest geomagnetic storms on record. The associated "white light flare" in the solar photosphere (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photosphere) was observed and recorded by English astronomers Richard C. Carrington (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Christopher_Carrington) and Richard Hodgson.


Studies have shown that a solar storm of this magnitude occurring today would likely cause widespread problems for modern civilization. There is an estimated 12% chance of a similar event occurring between 2012 and 2022.[2]" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859#cite_note-NASA-20140723a-2)


"One researcher has estimated such an event would kill over 67% of the
U.S. population over a year, with the die-off starting within 30 days
due to food, water and medicine shortages."

John

[ramblingboy42]

"The solar storm of 1859, also known as the Carrington Event,[1] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859#cite_note-severespaceweather-1) was a powerful geomagnetic solar storm (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_solar_storm) in 1859 during solar cycle 10 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_10). A solar coronal mass ejection (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection) hit Earth's magnetosphere (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_magnetosphere) and induced one of the largest geomagnetic storms on record. The associated "white light flare" in the solar photosphere (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photosphere) was observed and recorded by English astronomers Richard C. Carrington (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Christopher_Carrington) and Richard Hodgson.


Studies have shown that a solar storm of this magnitude occurring today would likely cause widespread problems for modern civilization. There is an estimated 12% chance of a similar event occurring between 2012 and 2022.[2]" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859#cite_note-NASA-20140723a-2)


"One researcher has estimated such an event would kill over 67% of the
U.S. population over a year, with the die-off starting within 30 days
due to food, water and medicine shortages."

John

Why are you trying to turn my happy thread into one of doom and gloom?

[JDNSW]

Why are you trying to turn my happy thread into one of doom and gloom?

Sorry, not trying to do anything of the sort, just pointing out the other possible consequences of this event. A catastrophic event of this type is a virtual certainty within the next century, and we really ought to be thinking about ways of mitigating the effects. Not that this will help if this event is 'the big one'.

John