The decline of tjhe American empire- OR not?

[bob10]

https://youtu.be/ysqYqWdlrNY

[DiscoMick]

If Trump rejects the Pacific trade agreement and puts a 45% import duty on Chinese products then Pacific nations including us will pivot to join the ASEAN-Chinese trade agreement, which excludes the USA, and US companies will face barriers to selling in Asia and more American factories will shut as American companies move more factories to Asia to preserve their access to Asian markets. America will go into recession, putting out of work more of the white working males who voted for Trump, who promised to save their jobs - a classic case of shooting yourself in the foot.
So yes, America's decline will continue as China and India continue to industralize and Russia steps up its military expansion, I predict (as have many strategic thinkers who are a lot smarter than me).

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[bob10]

Kinda how I see it , too. Could come down to a choice- China or India? Hobsons choice. Now the UK is moving away from Europe, will we get cosy with them?. We certainly can't go it alone, nor can NZ, not sure about Canada. Will South Africa put their hand up? With the ANC, who knows. China is strong in Africa, and China and Russia have formed an alliance , bit like NATO. The chess board is being set up, and America is looking inward. Let's hope diplomacy rules.

[DiscoMick]

Yep. Can't see Apple or GM or Ford or other American companies moving their factories back to the USA and risking their world markets. They'll just pass the American import duties on to charge American consumers, including Trump supporters.

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[bob10]

And Putin stirs the pot.

Vladimir Putin orders Russia move missiles to European outpost (http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2016/11/23/russia-kaliningrad-missiles-kgb-putin/)

[incisor]

Yep. Can't see Apple or GM or Ford or other American companies moving their factories back to the USA and risking their world markets. They'll just pass the American import duties on to charge American consumers, including Trump supporters.

in some areas of the us the basic wage is lower than korea, china and if the dump the mexican agreement, mexico :p

according to trade journals, intel and apple are already looking at moving some back there as unions and affluence are growing in china to the point india and southern usa are becoming more viable..

[DiscoMick]

That could be interesting.

Trump is proposing a 35% import duty on Mexican imports.

China loves the rise of Trump - he is doing exactly what they want - to turn Asia away from the USA and towards China.
This will leave Australia forced to choose between our trade dependance on China and our security alliance with the USA.
Is our government capable of making that choice? I doubt it.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-24/china-seizes-opportunity-after-trump-threatens-to-dump-tpp/8056086

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[EastFreo]

A while back there was a good series on empires by Niall Ferguson.

i think we will all lament the fall of the American Empire in time if it happens.

[bob10]

We have the watches, China has the time.

China won (http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2016/11/24/china-us-australia/)

[bob10]

How the Silk Road challenges, predicts the future power of Asia (http://thenewdaily.com.au/life/travel/2016/11/19/silk-road-tour-asia/)

[bob10]

[QUOTE=EastFreo

i think we will all lament the fall of the American Empire in time if it happens.[/QUOTE]

It is inevitable.It has been rotting from within for some time. Ever since the Atomic bomb, diplomacy has been replaced by hubris.