Effect of D5 on used D4 market

[Creaser]

"The most comfortable and connected car the brand has ever made is also its most popular, with more than 700 pre-launch orders already on the books in Australia, joining 20,000 more around the world." - Andrew Chesterton, Drive
The above quote published in a Land Rover Australia email.

What is the scale of the effect of the delivery of at least 700 D5s, on availability and prices of used D4s?

[kelvo]

The D5 has pretty much made all D4s worthless now.

So if anyone with a 2013 onwards SDV6 SE needs their obsolete computer on wheels removed let me know. For a small fee I'll take it away so the neighbours won't look at you in disgust for having an old bunky on the drive.

[ATH]

Thanks for the offer Kelvin but I think I'll keep my D4. After all I have promised the Cook I'll never ever buy another car....... but I have a nice Puma you can have cheap. [wink11]
AlanH.

[Celtoid]

The above quote published in a Land Rover Australia email.

What is the scale of the effect of the delivery of at least 700 D5s, on availability and prices of used D4s?

I thought that when I entered the Land Rover market ... that it would be a great opportunity to buy a very late model D3 for a song. The reason I bought a D4 was due to the fact that the last of the D3s were still commanding very good money. I decided to pay not too much more for a new model D4.

Sure it was an ex demo with a massive 3,000Klms on the clock for about $15K under the book price. :-)

But .... getting back to the point .... the intro of the D4 didn't shake the D3 tree too much at all at the time in my experience..

[Tins]

The D5 has pretty much made all D4s worthless now.

So if anyone with a 2013 onwards SDV6 SE needs their obsolete computer on wheels removed let me know. For a small fee I'll take it away so the neighbours won't look at you in disgust for having an old bunky on the drive.

I SO want to FLAME YOU. But, can't fault the logic, or the approach. Lol.

[ATH]

Take no notice of Kelvin, he's just trying to panic us D4 owners into selling cheap so he can pick up a bargain. I've got a cheap Puma you can have Kelvin instead ...... [bigsmile1]
AlanH.

[ATH]

Amazing! I think LRA must be monitoring what we're up to as I've just received an email telling me how wonderful this new hair dressers D5 is! By the way, salespersons are not allowed to refer to it as a D5.... it must be "Discovery"!
AlanH.

[AGRO]

Hey Alan,

Before you carry out anymore mods and scratch your D4 I'll take it off your hands.

You know you want a "Discovery 5" and regret not having waited.

[Bytemrk]

But .... getting back to the point .... the intro of the D4 didn't shake the D3 tree too much at all at the time in my experience..


You may well be on the money Celtoid.... however between D3 and D4 there wasn't a significant change in body styling. The D5, or should that be "all new discovery", is a totally different vehicle, while D3 and D4 are like siblings.


I'm sure it all hangs on how the average punter takes to the D5... not the dedicated offroaders and outback tourers like most of us, but the city dwelling " look at my luxury Land Rover" folk - Land Rover's real target market.


If the used market gets a flood of D4's... the prices are sure to drop... however if more decide to hang onto theirs - like I will - maybe the price will stay up for a bit longer... we will see [bighmmm]

[Timmy]

I have recently been looking at a late model 2013+ D4 to purchase. I spoke to several people who were upgrading to the D5 and were expecting delivery early late July/early August and so were keen to move the D4 on.

I have just purchased a 2014 SDV6 HSE for $55,000 which I am happy with. I would however expect that as more people get confidence in the new D5, there will be trade ins of D4s and therefore may flood the market causing a reduction in price.

Then there is the other school of thought... That the D5's butt is something only a mother could love and therefore the D4 could go up in value as the best model Discovery ever made! [thumbsupbig][bigrolf]

[ATH]

Maybe used D4s will start attracting all the much touted fantastic prices Defenders were supposedly getting. Total crap but may have helped move a few along for some sellers.
I'm still loving mine even after 7 months so won't be selling just yet...
AlanH.

[chuck]

The other thing to consider is that a new D5 with a few bells & whistles will be over $40k more expensive than a used late model D4 so this may keep prices up as well.

[trout1105]

I would imagine that the more astute D4 owners that are thinking of getting into the new Discoveries will be waiting until all the teething problems have been ironed out on the new units before they commit.
There isn't anything THAT New on the D5's and the D4 is a very capable truck so I can't see any reason to rush into it.

[DI5CO]

I see it panning out this way:

D5 will increase sales compared to D4 due to it being a softer looking car with great credentials. Suit the masses more I guess.
(There will still be a fair few D4 owners upgrading to 5.)

D4 off road users waiting for/buying the new Defender.

New Defender increasing sales exponentially from the 20k worldwide annual sales for the die hard off roader where the D1-4 /old Defer left off.

The world will return to normal when this happens🤣

Dave

[Melbourne Park]

I'm now thinking of putting a bull bar on the D4. You can't do that with a D5.

[Tins]

There may be some method in their madness. Seems to me LR have divided the Disco mob, with the D5, sorry, AND aimed at Mark's "look at my luxury Land Rover" mob, where it will sell like ecstasy at a rave party, and the harder core tourer market, where it won't. People like those will hang on to their D3/4 a bit longer, when, hey presto, LR will give us another AND ( All New Defender this time ), which I see being the Real Disco replacement, given that it will no longer be the utilitarian thing we all know and lo..li.. darn it, love. I imagine the Defender will slot in nicely as a very capable tourer, with the sort of comfort and performance enjoyed by D4 owners now.

My take on the original question largely mirrors what others have said. There will be plenty of good, unmodified D4s out there as the urban warrior type move up into what is to all intents and purposes a Range Rover, but the demand for them from D2 and D3 owners will keep the prices up for a while yet, as there is really nothing to replace them until the new Defender arrives. If I'm right, then that is when the D4 prices will fall.

[trout1105]

There may be some method in their madness. Seems to me LR have divided the Disco mob, with the D5, sorry, AND aimed at Mark's "look at my luxury Land Rover" mob, where it will sell like ecstasy at a rave party, and the harder core tourer market, where it won't. People like those will hang on to their D3/4 a bit longer, when, hey presto, LR will give us another AND ( All New Defender this time ), which I see being the Real Disco replacement, given that it will no longer be the utilitarian thing we all know and lo..li.. darn it, love. I imagine the Defender will slot in nicely as a very capable tourer, with the sort of comfort and performance enjoyed by D4 owners now.

My take on the original question largely mirrors what others have said. There will be plenty of good, unmodified D4s out there as the urban warrior type move up into what is to all intents and purposes a Range Rover, but the demand for them from D2 and D3 owners will keep the prices up for a while yet, as there is really nothing to replace them until the new Defender arrives. If I'm right, then that is when the D4 prices will fall.

That make a whole lot of sense [thumbsupbig]

[Tins]

That make a whole lot of sense [thumbsupbig]

Unusual, isn't it?

[AGRO]

Yep,

As long as some of the technology development filters through to the "hard core tourer" alternative in a few years the wait may be worth it.

Meanwhile, my 2010 D4 2.7 will continue to be a realistic tourer for years. A mates 2006 D3 has done all the rough stuff Australia has to offer and continues to motor on in comfort. So for all the D4 tourers there is still a great future.

[Creaser]

There isn't anything THAT New on the D5's and the D4 is a very capable truck so I can't see any reason to rush into it.

Autonomous braking, lane assist, smart cruise ect are new and the flavour/trend of the day.
Such kit is quite desirable on the very long stretches of black top we often need to traverse to get to the locations that make the most of the vehicles 4x4 ability.
AB is apparently not available in the D5 base model.

This kit is (from this month) standard on all VWs and already had been availanlevonnSubaruvand Nazdas, the new $28k Hyundai i30 has it.
So the cheapest D5, forever will be a luxury motor without the most significant new safety feature of its time.

Ditto a 2016/17 D4.

Just like the period of transition where ABS brakes became standard, one doesn't want to be caught out with a used luxury motor that doesn't have the "must have" safety feature available in new cars from other manufacturers that are a similar price to a used D4.

AB kit, Radar, Cameras, large colour display screens are commodity items available to all manufacturers, LR should not be counting on these toys to justify a $20k premium, especially if they want to attract a different demographic to Toorak bankers (location and occupation of the previous owner of my D3:)

Safety sells, especially to soccer mums.

Mjb

[ATH]

"Autonomous braking, lane assist, smart cruise ect are new and the flavour/trend of the day." They may well be the flavour of the day with some but I bought the poverty pack D4 last year because when I need electronic gadgets to tell me what's happening on the road around me, or that I'm wandering, I'll give up driving.
Total crap much of which is just another distraction to many from what should be the most important thing whilst driving...... attention attention attention to what you're doing. Looking in the mirrors, looking out the windscreen, being aware of what's happening around you not gobbing off on the phone or gazing at a screen to see who's in your blind spot etc. You should know.
AlanH.

[DiscoJeffster]

Yes. Actually taking driving as a the life threatening task it is would improve driving immensely

[Creaser]

"Autonomous braking, lane assist, smart cruise ect are new and the flavour/trend of the day." They may well be the flavour of the day with some but I bought the poverty pack D4 last year because when I need electronic gadgets to tell me what's happening on the road around me, or that I'm wandering, I'll give up driving.
Total crap much of which is just another distraction to many from what should be the most important thing whilst driving...... attention attention attention to what you're doing. Looking in the mirrors, looking out the windscreen, being aware of what's happening around you not gobbing off on the phone or gazing at a screen to see who's in your blind spot etc. You should know.
AlanH.

I'll start a new thread on the topic as I think this is a subject that will run and run:)

[trout1105]

Seriously.
What is next, Software that will get the soccer Mom to the training grounds on Auto pilot?
Like was said earlier Good driving skills alleviate the need for most of the electronic BS in new vehicles [bigwhistle][thumbsupbig]

[DI5CO]

The trouble is as long as there are f wits on the road we will need these safety aids. Only when we can delete instructions off shampoo bottles is when we will be safe in the road!!

[rar110]

I wouldn't call them crap as these gizmos are good but they can make you a bit reliant.

Blind spot warning, adaptive cruise and even anti collision breaking will be features that will reduce insurance premiums in the future. As they simply reduce the risk of collision/damage.

[Arapiles]

The above quote published in a Land Rover Australia email.

What is the scale of the effect of the delivery of at least 700 D5s, on availability and prices of used D4s?

I'm currently trying to buy a low k D4 - LR dealers have premium priced the last of the new ones and any good second-hand ones are being immediately snapped up, in the case of one car I was looking at, within 4 hours of the dealer sending its details to their shortlist of interested purchasers. The car was never actually advertised anywhere. The stock listed on the car websites hasn't moved much over the last few weeks, and most seem to have problems when you look closely. The LR dealers either don't know or aren't saying how many people who've ordered D5s will trade in D4s. And, as I posted elsewhere, one dealer mentioned in passing that having seen the D5 in the flesh some purchasers were electing to keep their D4s.

[Arapiles]

I have just purchased a 2014 SDV6 HSE for $55,000 which I am happy with.

Can I ask how many Ks the car had?

[DiscoJeffster]

I wouldn't call them crap as these gizmos are good but they can make you a bit reliant.

Blind spot warning, adaptive cruise and even anti collision breaking will be features that will reduce insurance premiums in the future. As they simply reduce the risk of collision/damage.

Funniest thing ever. Reducing insurance premiums? Believe it when I see it.

[Tins]

Seriously.
What is next, Software that will get the soccer Mom to the training grounds on Auto pilot?


Isn't that exactly what goggle is aiming for? Seriously, why would people put their lives in the hands of a company that drives 96% of it's income from advertising? I believe that the world has gone mad. If I was going to trust some company in California to drive my car for me ( I'm not, in case you were wondering ), then I think I'd go with Apple or maybe Microsoft. I am sitting in front of a late model iMac, I have an iPhone 7, and I am not filled with confidence. Apple is a company that derives around 90-95% of it's revenue from PRODUCT. And they don't get it right. Let Goggle, who make their money from advertising, drive my car?? Are you serious?

[Tins]

The trouble is as long as there are f wits on the road we will need these safety aids. Only when we can delete instructions off shampoo bottles is when we will be safe in the road!!


Sorry. As long as we have these "aids" we will have f wits on the roads. Anything that takes away the responsibility of the driver is stupidity, writ large.

[DI5CO]

The ONLY thing that would increase awareness and the biggest safety thing to go into cars would be to replace the air bag with a big metal spike! How careful would everyone drive with that 1ft from your face lol

[TB]

So all you blokes dissing on software need to get out of your Discovery 3 and 4 and into some older vehicles which don't have traction control and stability control and ABS and electronic diffs and terrain response and heck, electronic fuel injection and any modern automatic gearbox. Ditch your GPS. Every single one of those things is software at its heart and is diminishing your ability as a non-f-wit competent driver.

[bigwhistle]

Seriously, it is an interesting topic... what do I bring to the process of driving which software doesn't do better? Even if the software could do it better, what would I insist on doing myself anyway because that's the whole point of driving dammit? Because I guarantee you the software is going to keep improving a whole lot quicker than human brains can.

On the D4 market, I don't like my chances of finding a great one with e-diff. All the die-hards are holding on to their proper off road D4's.

[Stuart02]

I reckon there might actually be a few extra late model Rangie Sports on the market. While my wife was determinedly buying her Evoque (mainly cos it's the smallest LR one can buy) I sat in a Disco Sport HSE and for the same $ (mid 70s) it had the same engine as the baby Rangie, fresher interior and ergonomics, more (evil) driver aids and was way better specced with things such as memory seats blah blah.
The same cross shopping will happen with the D5 v the L494

[TerryO]

Autonomous braking, lane assist, smart cruise ect are new and the flavour/trend of the day.
Such kit is quite desirable on the very long stretches of black top we often need to traverse to get to the locations that make the most of the vehicles 4x4 ability.
AB is apparently not available in the D5 base model.

This kit is (from this month) standard on all VWs and already had been availanlevonnSubaruvand Nazdas, the new $28k Hyundai i30 has it.
So the cheapest D5, forever will be a luxury motor without the most significant new safety feature of its time.

Ditto a 2016/17 D4.

Just like the period of transition where ABS brakes became standard, one doesn't want to be caught out with a used luxury motor that doesn't have the "must have" safety feature available in new cars from other manufacturers that are a similar price to a used D4.

AB kit, Radar, Cameras, large colour display screens are commodity items available to all manufacturers, LR should not be counting on these toys to justify a $20k premium, especially if they want to attract a different demographic to Toorak bankers (location and occupation of the previous owner of my D3:)

Safety sells, especially to soccer mums.

Mjb


When it comes to Land Rovers missing out on what has become basic features this is nothing new. I remember having a discussion with a LR mechanic about how useless it was that our secondhand D2a HSE did not have a reostat on the dash lights, only to be told that 'well it is only a Discovery if you want to be able to dim the dash lights then you will need to buy a Range Rover.' I just look at him and thought you complete goose, a Discovery HSE D2a was a over $70k vehicle when new and vehicles half the price had many features way above a HSE including adjustable dash lights.

The reality is even though LR's often have lower spec features compared to other often much more affordable vehicles people usually still que up to buy them. The other thing when discussing the basic entry level Discovery is that few people buy the base model new, they usually buy them with a number of higher spec features.

I have no doubt the D5 will be very popular and they will sell lots of them, but only time will tell if it is a serious D3/4 off road replacement. I for one won't be upset if the D4 price drops, as I have no intention of selling ours and I would be more than happy to buy another V8 D4 if they became much cheaper.

[Eevo]

i dont like the D5 based on how it looks.

[veebs]

The reality is even though LR's often have lower spec features compared to other often much more affordable vehicles people usually still que up to buy them. The other thing when discussing the basic entry level Discovery is that few people buy the base model new, they usually buy them with a number of higher spec features.

There seem to be two distinct buyers - Those wanting prestige and those wanting offroad capability. Neither one will particularly care about dimming dash lights I would think? At least, not enough to consider a Toyota. But your point is valid - 'keeping up with the joneses' is not one of LR's strong suits. Good thing too I think - means they are focusing on their own cars, rather than worrying about what Japan is pushing out.

Back to the OT, I don't know if there has ever been an example where the introduction of a new model caused the previous model to significantly decline in value (or increase in availability)?

[Stuart02]

LR's pitch has always been that the trade off for fewer bells and whistles is offroad capability. Even for Range Rovers

[Bohica]

Seriously.
What is next, Software that will get the soccer Mom to the training grounds on Auto pilot?
Like was said earlier Good driving skills alleviate the need for most of the electronic BS in new vehicles [bigwhistle][thumbsupbig]

It's called a Tesla!

[TB]

My Disco Sport SE has dimming dash lights. Can't imagine not having that feature... nothing worse than a glaring dash for night time highway driving.

According to the D5 manual, it has dimming dash lights too. Plus something called Stealth Mode!
Land Rover Owner Information (http://www.ownerinfo.landrover.com/document/3D/2017/T19958/22468_en_GBR/proc/G1802141)

If the D4 doesn't have anything like that I want at least a 5K discount on your hand-me-downs [thumbsupbig]

[Creaser]

Funniest thing ever. Reducing insurance premiums? Believe it when I see it.




NRMA have been offering it since 2014.
Self-braking cars cheaper to insure (https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/nrma-insurance-offers-discounts-for-cars-with-automatic-braking/news-story/462b9da4855ce583874d7437b9dfcb02)


Spoke to my insurers about replacing our runaround car an i30 with the new model which has the autonomous pack. They said insurance rates will probably be reduced based on historical data for particular models, rather than the tech.

The stats are compelling, vast majority of head ons and rear enders are caused by inattention. Call this a "human factor" that is unrelated to handling skill.

Google "mobile eye", they make the tech for most car manufacturers. They do a version 6 aftermarket version for $1700 fitted.
D4 needs canbus unlocked. Does all the warnings but can't apply the brakes. Has buzzer and optional haptic warning (vibrator) for lane deviation. Forward collision warning, applies brake lights too. From what I understand it could be feasible for the disco community brainstrust to plumb it into brakes and apply a % of brake pedal to begin to slow vehicle, as many of the manufacture versions do.

Such kit makes holding onto a D4 for another 5 years that much more attractive and the D5 less attractive.

[Eevo]

i thought dimable dash lights was an ADR requirement??

[veebs]

When we say dash lights, we're referring to the "high beam" and other indicator lights right? My AC controls, speedo, tacho etc all dim just fine.

[TB]

When we say dash lights, we're referring to the "high beam" and other indicator lights right? My AC controls, speedo, tacho etc all dim just fine.

No I mean the AC controls, speedo, tacho etc. I have no knowledge of the D4, just reacting to what somebody else posted earlier. I couldn't see any adjustment control in the online manual for the D4 though.

[veebs]

Right - well they all dim just fine, using the control near the headlight switch.

But the High beam, Low beam, auto high beam, cruise control on, etc LEDs stay stubbornly bright.

[Graeme]

I retro-fitted a radar unit to my MY12 L322 mostly to get adaptive cruise control but also for forward alert and I enabled autonomous braking to keep adaptive CC active down to a stop rather than switch off at slower speeds. To date forward alert has triggered unnecessarily a few times but I'll leave it activated in case it may be of use. However ACC on late L322s was offered elsewhere in the world so support for it already existed on my vehicle, not necessarily the same applies to D4s.

[TerryO]

Guys it was me who earlier mentioned non dimable dash lights on a previously owned Disco HSE, but as I mentioned it was on a D2a which is a 2003 model not a D3/4.

[Tins]

So all you blokes dissing on software need to get out of your Discovery 3 and 4 and into some older vehicles which don't have traction control and stability control and ABS and electronic diffs and terrain response and heck, electronic fuel injection and any modern automatic gearbox. Ditch your GPS. Every single one of those things is software at its heart and is diminishing your ability as a non-f-wit competent driver.

[bigwhistle]

Seriously, it is an interesting topic... what do I bring to the process of driving which software doesn't do better? Even if the software could do it better, what would I insist on doing myself anyway because that's the whole point of driving dammit? Because I guarantee you the software is going to keep improving a whole lot quicker than human brains can.

On the D4 market, I don't like my chances of finding a great one with e-diff. All the die-hards are holding on to their proper off road D4's.

I currently drive a 300TDi D1. Not sure what software I am using. Certainly not the suspension or seats.

[Tins]

i thought dimable dash lights was an ADR requirement??


Can you tell me where the dimmer rheostat ( or equivalent ) is on my 2000 D2? Cos I'm buggered if I can find it.

[Creaser]

I retro-fitted a radar unit to my MY12 L322 mostly to get adaptive cruise control but also for forward alert and I enabled autonomous braking to keep adaptive CC active down to a stop rather than switch off at slower speeds. To date forward alert has triggered unnecessarily a few times but I'll leave it activated in case it may be of use. However ACC on late L322s was offered elsewhere in the world so support for it already existed on my vehicle, not necessarily the same applies to D4s.

Graeme, what was cost of the retrofit?

mjb