Sydney-Melbourne in an EV is possible.

[DiscoMick]

Can an electric vehicle make the trip from Sydney to Melbourne easily?
Stephen Conroy says you can't easily drive from Sydney to Melbourne in an electric vehicle. Is he correct? - Fact Check - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-04/fact-check3a-is-it-correct-that-driving-from-sydney-to-melbour/11267090)

[Tombie]

Would drive me crazy though - turning a 9 hour drive into an 11-15 hour drive...

[AK83]

Would drive me crazy though - turning a 9 hour drive into an 11-15 hour drive...

Personally I have no issue turning a 9 hr drive into something longer .. I used to do this with monotonous regularity for years.
The caveat tho was what to do when stopped.
In years gone by, for me it was a bit of photography(actually a lot of it).
But this idea of Telsa's to have charging points along the Hume, makes no sense if they're regular everyday service stations.
1hr waiting at a mind numbing servo for a charge! .. what the hell do you do at a servo for an hour? [bighmmm]

[Homestar]

So possible, but not what many people would call a good time stuck recharging so often. Still a long way to go with the tech and infrastructure. While I do love EV’s, I certainly don’t wear rose coloured glasses - kind of like my Land Rovers I suppose.

[DiscoMick]

It's okay, people don't buy EVs for long distance travel - they buy them for tootling around the suburbs.

[101RRS]

I drive Sydney - Melbourne basically in one go with one fuel stop. Brisbane to Melbourne would be with one long rest stop with a sleep so happy to use an EV for this trip.

Sydney to Melbourne a stop to recharge an EV is not good enough for my style of driving.

[Eevo]

It's okay, people don't buy EVs for long distance travel
and thats why i wont buy an EV

[Graeme]

Long distance travel would be much more viable if battery packs became small enough to swap out in a few minutes.

[scarry]

Long distance travel would be much more viable if battery packs became small enough to swap out in a few minutes.

I would have thought a cassette style change over system would be the go,but no one else seems to think so[bigsad]

There would be hurdles though,as each brand would be a different type,then the models of the batteries would be different,even supplied by one brand.

Sure,an Ev can go many places,it just depends on how much you can afford to be inconvenienced.

[Eevo]

I would have thought a cassette style change over system would be the go,but no one else seems to think so[bigsad]

There would be hurdles though,as each brand would be a different type,then the models of the batteries would be different,even supplied by one brand.

Sure,an Ev can go many places,it just depends on how much you can afford to be inconvenienced.


have to make it fool proof for all the idiots out there.
and everyone cant agree to a command standard.

[PhilipA]

As I have stated before, Tesla had this idea but gave up on it.
With a Tesla they would have had to undo about 24 bolts, and have a dolly that could lower and raise about 540KG (for 60KW), very accurately or the contacts are bent.
There is also the issue of how old the swapped battery packs are. Would you swap a say one year old battery for one 8 years old?

Regard sPhilip A

[Eevo]

mm, i forgot about the weight.

[Phil B]

Maybe hydrogen is the way to go....

[Eevo]

Maybe hydrogen is the way to go....

nuclear power car.

[Phil B]

nuclear power car.

Good idea. You wouldn’t have to refuel, ever. Just fill up with cooling water every now and then.

[goingbush]

"Refillable" battery tech could allow electric cars over 5000km range | RenewEconomy (https://reneweconomy.com.au/refillable-battery-tech-could-allow-electric-cars-over-5000km-range-73636/)

[PhilipA]

I think that this article is trying to simplify a complex issue.

1 What temperature is the the drive? At say 35C the air conditioning in any EV will shorten the range.

2 a journalist some time ago did the Melbourne Sydney drive in a Model S and found that at 110 the range was reduced dramatically vs at 100Kmh. In freezing weather you cannot charge a Tesla so no Thredbo snow for them.
3 Each time a supercharger is used by a Tesla, the strength of the next supercharge is reduced to protect the battery. AFAIR , there also is a defined number of times a Tesla can be supercharged.

4 AFAIK there are as yet NO latest superchargers in Australia so at present the shortest charging time is vapourware..

5 Where will the power come from to place superchargers in more remote areas. I have been on farms where the transformer on the pole is say 100KVA which will just run their sorting/packing lines. The whole network could not support a 150KW charger.
6 there are already streets in Melbourne where only some of the houses can charge their EVs at the same time due to the distribution system limitations. Who will pay?.

Regards Philip A

[Eevo]

Good idea. You wouldn’t have to refuel, ever. Just fill up with cooling water every now and then.

just like a land rover.

[Eevo]

In freezing weather you cannot charge a Tesla
thats interesting.
i wonder what temp that batteries freeze

[Graeme]

I have been on farms where the transformer on the pole is say 100KVA...Mine is 10KVA and Essential Energy wont allow the 6mm overheads from the 5KVA days to be upgraded to 16mm for my nearby 8kW PV system.

[Phil B]

Mine is 10KVA and Essential Energy wont allow the 6mm overheads from the 5KVA days to be upgraded to 16mm for my nearby 8kW PV system.

The way I see it is that this is exactly the issue many will face before EV can become a reality. If you can’t charge them at home from your house supply while you sleep (8 hrs?) what do you do?
I’d love to do a conversion but it’s just not viable until we work out how to significantly increase the range and sort out home charging.
I do about 350km for work on most days which I can’t do with current ( no pun intended) technology.

[Tombie]

The way I see it is that this is exactly the issue many will face before EV can become a reality. If you can’t charge them at home from your house supply while you sleep (8 hrs?) what do you do?
I’d love to do a conversion but it’s just not viable until we work out how to significantly increase the range and sort out home charging.
I do about 350km for work on most days which I can’t do with current ( no pun intended) technology.

Current offerings will easily do 400km.
But your wallet will sting to the tune of ~$60k+

[goingbush]

thats interesting.
i wonder what temp that batteries freeze

They don't freeze, Mobile phones work in the snow, Sat phones still work on the south pole .

Scandinavia has more EV per capita traan anywhere else but its in frozen darkness for half the year.

They dont like being charged when cold is the problem, Most EV's have thermal management, they pre-warm the batteries before charging.

However Lithium batteries certainly are not as efficient at colder temperatures. My E-Landy uses about 30kwh per 100km in summer and about 33kwh per 100km in winter (no heater) so about 10% less range in winter.

[goingbush]

The way I see it is that this is exactly the issue many will face before EV can become a reality. If you can’t charge them at home from your house supply while you sleep (8 hrs?) what do you do?
I’d love to do a conversion but it’s just not viable until we work out how to significantly increase the range and sort out home charging.
I do about 350km for work on most days which I can’t do with current ( no pun intended) technology.


Home charging is a non issue. No special charger is needed just plug into a 10A power point . 2.2kw x 8 hours = 17.6kwh , that will get you 80km in a Tesla. Perfectly adequate for 90% of punters daily commute.

You are the exception If you are doing 350km a day you will want a 10-15kw charger installed .

[Homestar]

Home charging is a non issue. No special charger is needed just plug into a 10A power point . 2.2kw x 8 hours = 17.6kwh , that will get you 80km in a Tesla. Perfectly adequate for 90% of punters daily commute.

You are the exception If you are doing 350km a day you will want a 10-15kw charger installed .

I average 200KM a day, and max out around 800KM a day so an EV doesn’t make sense as a daily for me, but I bet nearly every household with a 2 car family could make an EV work as the second car without interrupting their lifestyle at all or putting in a large charger. Biggest hurdle to that at the moment is the initial outlay on that vehicle which is way too high for most families to look at them as an option currently. If they are like us when we were running the kids around, etc the second car was a much cheaper proposition than the main family car. Once the price comes down to a point where they are the same price as an ICE vehicle, I think we’ll see much faster adoption.

[Phil B]

I average 200KM a day, and max out around 800KM a day so an EV doesn’t make sense as a daily for me, but I bet nearly every household with a 2 car family could make an EV work as the second car without interrupting their lifestyle at all or putting in a large charger. Biggest hurdle to that at the moment is the initial outlay on that vehicle which is way too high for most families to look at them as an option currently. If they are like us when we were running the kids around, etc the second car was a much cheaper proposition than the main family car. Once the price comes down to a point where they are the same price as an ICE vehicle, I think we’ll see much faster adoption.

Absolutely agree.
This field is progressing so fast I’m sure that issue will be addressed soon if they want to sell EV’s as a viable 2nd car

[austastar]

Hi,
Small EVs as a second car could really help congestion if the annual costs of the ICE left at home were reshaped to reflect usage/time/location of road space.
Cheers

[Eevo]

Hi,
Small EVs as a second car could really help congestion if the annual costs of the ICE left at home were reshaped to reflect usage/time/location of road space.
Cheers


run that by me again?

[austastar]

Hi,
Well, we really rent permission to use vehicles on the road, paid in a lump sum every year. And there are discouragemens to let it lapse or do it in 6 month periods.
So like all rented tools, we try and not leave them sitting idle for too long.
Yes/no/maybe?
Governments will have to devise a way to reduce congestion or we will all be gridlocked with people using their rented entitlements rather than using other forms of transport/strategies to commute/travel.
Yes/no/maybe?

Cheers

[Eevo]

i'll go no on that.
your penalisng people who cant afford eV

[DiscoMick]

Mine is 10KVA and Essential Energy wont allow the 6mm overheads from the 5KVA days to be upgraded to 16mm for my nearby 8kW PV system.Are you putting your power back into the grid? If you put in a battery system to run the house first and only then send the excess to the grid, then I don't see how an energy company could stop you from upgrading your own internal system.

[DiscoMick]

The way I see it is that this is exactly the issue many will face before EV can become a reality. If you can’t charge them at home from your house supply while you sleep (8 hrs?) what do you do?
I’d love to do a conversion but it’s just not viable until we work out how to significantly increase the range and sort out home charging.
I do about 350km for work on most days which I can’t do with current ( no pun intended) technology.You can charge from any power point, it's just faster with more powerful chargers.

[DiscoMick]

Hi,
Small EVs as a second car could really help congestion if the annual costs of the ICE left at home were reshaped to reflect usage/time/location of road space.
CheersInitially hybrids will be the go. They can be bought for $28-32,000 (Prius or Corolla), can run 50 Ks electric, halve motoring costs and no range anxiety.
Hyundai is joining Toyota in a big hybrid push, so acceptance will rise rapidly.
EVs will follow as costs fall.
Governments will discount costs because EVs slash emissions.
Twenty years from now ICE vehicles will be in museums.

[Graeme]

Are you putting your power back into the grid? If you put in a battery system to run the house first and only then send the excess to the grid, then I don't see how an energy company could stop you from upgrading your own internal system.
Excess goes back to the grid. However Essential Energy, who owns the poles, transformers and wires have a policy of not allowing overhead wires to be upgraded except by local inspector approval and the local inspector won't go out on a limb to allow it, thereby forcing me to put all power underground at great expense if any change is to be made. Anyway, this isn't a PV problem except that the approval to connect the PV system to the grid was on the basis that the overheads were already 16mm. Maybe one day the bundle will start arcing at which time Essential Energy will have to upgrade the overheads at their expense

[scarry]

You can charge from any power point, it's just faster with more powerful chargers.

Quicker,more powerful chargers use a lot of power,so the average domestic property will need a mains upgrade to be able to use them.

[Homestar]

Initially hybrids will be the go. They can be bought for $28-32,000 (Prius or Corolla), can run 50 Ks electric, halve motoring costs and no range anxiety.
Hyundai is joining Toyota in a big hybrid push, so acceptance will rise rapidly.
EVs will follow as costs fall.
Governments will discount costs because EVs slash emissions.
Twenty years from now ICE vehicles will be in museums.

Like **** they will be - I’m still planning on driving my old Landies in 20 years. Anyone that tries to stop me will be in a world of hurt - they’ll still be millions of them on the roads, no government would be suicidal enough to ban them outright...

[austastar]

i'll go no on that.
you're penalisng people who cant afford eV

Hi,
Nope!
Well, not necessarily.
It could be structured to be (average) cost neutral.
There are winners and losers in any system, change anything in that system and the matrix will change.
It is up to community leaders to shape the matrix to benefit society/environment/planet as advised by experts in appropriate fields.
e.g. various subsidies such as the £10 Poms and European immigrants when we needed them, vehicle manufacturing when we needed it etc.
We can't keep adding cars to the daily commute, so something is needed to interrupt the present trend to avoid total traffic collapse.
Cheers

[Eevo]

Hi,

It is up to community leaders to shape the matrix to benefit society/environment/planet as advised by experts in appropriate fields.


no no no! [wink11]

its up to the people to tell their leaders what they want!

otherwise, the system wont work (or people are being oppressed)

[Tombie]

no no no! [wink11]

its up to the people to tell their leaders what they want!

otherwise, the system wont work (or people are being oppressed)

Theoretically a democracy allows for 49.9% of the population to be oppressed [emoji41]

[Homestar]

Sorry, it’s the first thing I thought of after reading those last couple of comments...


https://youtu.be/ZtYU87QNjPw

[goingbush]

Like **** they will be - I’m still planning on driving my old Landies in 20 years. Anyone that tries to stop me will be in a world of hurt - they’ll still be millions of them on the roads, no government would be suicidal enough to ban them outright...

As long as you can buy / afford petrol.

Of course you could DIY make a plant to convert NH3 to H2 and easily run your petrol vehicles on it the tailpipe emissions will be water only !!


https://youtu.be/_H4XZ_m7P0E


This one from the 1970's

https://youtu.be/L0hBAz6MxC4

[Homestar]

Absolutely - but it should be my choice, not someone else’s....

[DiscoMick]

Sorry, but all our dirty old ICE vehicles will be banned because of their deadly exhausts and you'll have to go to museums and pay to don masks to see them started, while giggling children titter about our ankles muttering about the quaint old farts and their smelly heaps.

[Eevo]

Sorry, but all our dirty old ICE vehicles will be banned because of their deadly exhausts and you'll have to go to museums and pay to don masks to see them started, while giggling children titter about our ankles muttering about the quaint old farts and their smelly heaps.


govt wont ban them. they get way too money from fuel taxes.

[DiscoMick]

They won't be able to be sold new unless they comply with the latest emissions standards and can run on the latest fuels.
It's inevitable that emissions testing will become of renewing registrations.
Urban areas will van vehicles with dirty exhausts, as already happens in some cities, including London.
Thousands of people are dying every year from emissions. The cost of treating sick people is becoming unsustainable. Prevention is more efficient than treating people after they get sick. Even governments which ignore environtal damage will have to respond to the dollar cost.

[Eevo]

They won't be able to be sold new unless they comply with the latest emissions standards and can run on the latest fuels.
It's inevitable that emissions testing will become of renewing registrations.


wont happen here in the next 30 years.

[Loderunner]

Governments will discount costs because EVs slash emissions.

The only problem with that is EVs won't slash emissions, they will actually rise. New ICEs are really low on emissions as it is. EVs need to get elctricity from somewhere and that is the national grid which derives it's power from the burning of fossil fuels. EV adoption is going to increase the amount of burnt fossil fuels which in turn will increase emissions and atmospheric pollution.

The only time EVs can become viable is if we move to nuclear energy and that isn't happening in Australia any time soon.

EVs are a con.

[Phil B]

Wow... here we go, watching the sparks fly with interest!

[DiscoMick]

The only problem with that is EVs won't slash emissions, they will actually rise. New ICEs are really low on emissions as it is. EVs need to get elctricity from somewhere and that is the national grid which derives it's power from the burning of fossil fuels. EV adoption is going to increase the amount of burnt fossil fuels which in turn will increase emissions and atmospheric pollution.

The only time EVs can become viable is if we move to nuclear energy and that isn't happening in Australia any time soon.

EVs are a con.No, that's not correct.
As fossil fuel production declines when worn-out coal power stations are closed, that will change.
Plus most EVs will be charged off solar home systems, so no draw from the grid anyway.

[Loderunner]

No, that's not correct.
As fossil fuel production declines when worn-out coal power stations are closed, that will change.
Plus most EVs will be charged off solar home systems, so no draw from the grid anyway.

Well that isn't going to be happening any time soon. There are currently 1600 coal-fired power plants being built in 62 countries. China's building about 100 on their own. That means there will be a hell of a lot of demand for fossil fuels well into the future.

Solar and wind can't even deliver baseload power (at the moment) and is notoriously unreliable.

As for solar home systems. That's great if you own your own stand-alone house or new-build. But, with the push for medium-density housing and inner-city living, for renters or people that live in apartments, there won't be enough roof space for solar panels. Which is ironic considering the best use-case for EVs is for inner city dwellers to hum (literally) around town.

[Eevo]

No, that's not correct.
As fossil fuel production declines when worn-out coal power stations are closed, that will change.
Plus most EVs will be charged off solar home systems, so no draw from the grid anyway.

when wind n solar farms run out, what do they get replaced with?
remember that both have a shorter lifespan than fossil fuel stations.

also home solar only has a 30% penetration rate in aust homes. some quick maths tells me that means 70% of houses will need to draw from the grid

[4bee]

Melbourne is south of Sinney, right, so it'd be all down hill, so should be a piece of cake, however Mel -Sinney would be a challenge all being up hill.[biggrin]



Would the ex Member for 'Buggered up Broadband' even know?[smilebigeye]

[DiscoMick]

when wind n solar farms run out, what do they get replaced with?
remember that both have a shorter lifespan than fossil fuel stations.

also home solar only has a 30% penetration rate in aust homes. some quick maths tells me that means 70% of houses will need to draw from the gridGas and batteries, normally.

[DiscoMick]

Well that isn't going to be happening any time soon. There are currently 1600 coal-fired power plants being built in 62 countries. China's building about 100 on their own. That means there will be a hell of a lot of demand for fossil fuels well into the future.

Solar and wind can't even deliver baseload power (at the moment) and is notoriously unreliable.

As for solar home systems. That's great if you own your own stand-alone house or new-build. But, with the push for medium-density housing and inner-city living, for renters or people that live in apartments, there won't be enough roof space for solar panels. Which is ironic considering the best use-case for EVs is for inner city dwellers to hum (literally) around town.There's no technical reason why the roofs of townhouses and apartments can't be covered in solar panels. Buyers can do it, or body corporates can combine, or even developers using lower power bills as a selling point.

[Loderunner]

There's no technical reason why the roofs of townhouses and apartments can't be covered in solar panels. Buyers can do it, or body corporates can combine, or even developers using lower power bills as a selling point.

Except there wouldn't be enough space to put enough solar panels to supply say a multi-storey apartment tower. You could probably get away with a duplex town-house roof but anything with more residences and solar would struggle to generate enough supply.

[scarry]

when wind n solar farms run out, what do they get replaced with?
remember that both have a shorter lifespan than fossil fuel stations.

also home solar only has a 30% penetration rate in aust homes. some quick maths tells me that means 70% of houses will need to draw from the grid

And out of that 30%,I wonder how many have the capacity to charge one or two EV’s every night?

And run the house?

Very few no doubt.

We are many,many years away from relying on solar power to reliably supply power even for domestic use,let alone charge vehicles as well as industrial use.

[Eevo]

And out of that 30%,I wonder how many have the capacity to charge one or two EV’s every night?

And run the house?

Very few no doubt.

We are many,many years away from relying on solar power to reliably supply power even for domestic use,let alone charge vehicles as well as industrial use.


well given the sun doesnt shine at night, and battery penetration is super low. i would say zip.

[DiscoMick]

EVs can be charged from any power point, but higher capacity chargers costing about $2000 make it happen faster.
The EV batteries can be wired to become part of the house power system. Batteries are charged during the day and run the house at night. About 6-7 kW of solar panels and a similar battery capacity is all a typical house needs.
A lot of solar can be packed onto project roofs. Our son's new 6.5 kW of solar panels which are wired to run his newly renovated house first and export the surplus to the grid are already earning him $5 a day in power credits, so as long as they use less than $5 a day in power, they are in credit. And his panels don't take up a lot of space - they would fit on a townhouse roof.
If not enough on- site power is generated, apartment projects can actually sign deals with solar and wind generation companies to buy their power from a remote farm. Some businesses already do this.
Why don't you stop raising false objections and just realise this is the way we're going and it's not a future thing, it's already here?

[Eevo]

most people set an alarm clock and wake up in the morning.
mick on the other hand is still in dream land.

[Phil B]

So to do this the average human family has to:
Pay for solar panels and batteries +-$7k (yes I know the power bill would then be smaller but we also have to pay for maintenance and power on rainy days etc)
Pay for a fast charger ‘cos the car needs to be charged in 8hrs- $2k
Pay for the EV - cheapest is currently $40k
Replace EV and house batteries every 6 (?) years say allow $3k per year

Total outlay for somebody with no electrical or mechanical knowledge is about $50k up front, just to do exactly what we are doing now albeit saving the world?.

All of this so that we can travel in a tiny car a max of 400km per day and we can’t go out of the cities because there aren’t any charging stations out there. I’m sure they’ll find a way to make us pay for those as well.

Sounds like a plan, not a very good plan, but a plan.

[Homestar]

EVs can be charged from any power point, but higher capacity chargers costing about $2000 make it happen faster.
The EV batteries can be wired to become part of the house power system. Batteries are charged during the day and run the house at night. About 6-7 kW of solar panels and a similar battery capacity is all a typical house needs.
A lot of solar can be packed onto project roofs. Our son's new 6.5 kW of solar panels which are wired to run his newly renovated house first and export the surplus to the grid are already earning him $5 a day in power credits, so as long as they use less than $5 a day in power, they are in credit. And his panels don't take up a lot of space - they would fit on a townhouse roof.
If not enough on- site power is generated, apartment projects can actually sign deals with solar and wind generation companies to buy their power from a remote farm. Some businesses already do this.
Why don't you stop raising false objections and just realise this is the way we're going and it's not a future thing, it's already here?

While you know I’m pro EV, but it won’t be here in any numbers until the financials stack up. Until EV’s are half the price and solar/battery systems are half the price, they won’t stack up for most people. Solar and battery prices continue to plummet and I think in 10 years or so we’ll be there price wise. EV’s too will plummet in price in the coming years but again, many years away. To me, 10 years plus is still the future, not sure about what you consider that to be. We aren’t anywhere close yet, and there are still massive Engineering and Infrastructure issues to overcome, but we’re getting there.

[scarry]

mick on the other hand is still in dream land.

I don't think so,it may eventually happen,but its at least 20yrs away.

With over 99.99% of vehicles on the road ICE's,not much is going to happen in the short term,say 10yrs.

The amount of infrastructure to charge even a small percentage of EV's on the road is huge.

Its just not going to happen overnight.

And as for incentives to own or use EV's,i can't see that happening.

The Govt is broke,so they say,and they will get stung at both ends,with the loss of fuel excise being a major issue.

[Eevo]

I don't think so,it may eventually happen,but its at least 20yrs away.




yes, the dream is that it will happen in less than 10.

[Ausclassics]

This article takes one of the best EVs ... And doesn't make Canberra!

Jaguar I-Pace SE 2019 review: How does it fare on the highway? | CarsGuide (https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-reviews/jaguar-i-pace-se-73253)

Next weekend I will be driving up there towing a Maserati and not stopping except for refuelling for 15 mins a couple times.... Can't ever see them doing that

[DiscoMick]

It's not dream land, it's already happening, but stay in denial if that floats your boat.
I've already had my supplier estimate, but for unrelated reasons it's delayed, as prices fall.
The son already has his solar earning him $5 a day, so that's present reality.
Hybrids, which don't have range anxiety, will be the interim as lithium battery prices fall and mass production lowers costs. Have a look at how many Corolla hybrids, costing about $32,000, are already in the traffic.
But hey, if some people want to deny reality, that's their loss.

[Tombie]

It's not dream land, it's already happening, but stay in denial if that floats your boat.
I've already had my supplier estimate, but for unrelated reasons it's delayed, as prices fall.
The son already has his solar earning him $5 a day, so that's present reality.
Hybrids, which don't have range anxiety, will be the interim as lithium battery prices fall and mass production lowers costs. Have a look at how many Corolla hybrids, costing about $32,000, are already in the traffic.
But hey, if some people want to deny reality, that's their loss.

How are you arriving at $5.00 figure Mick? I’m intrigued...
6.5kw systems will usually pump 40kwh on a very good day...
A house on average will be drawing 7-10kwh a day.

Edit: You use the term “power credits”, I’m figuring you’re using that as a measure of kWh produced vs kWh consumed?


But it don’t think you’ll see the pace of expansion you’re thinking - massive amount of rentals out there, and huge number of dwellings not suited to solar fit out.

The technology hasn’t been developed to get more energy under control yet - so pure EVs won’t dominate until energy density can be doubled/tripled...

It will come,and I like the EVs. Tesla are a hoot to pilot. I’ll likely have either a Rivian or Tesla soon. More for interest than practicality.

You know what though - none of this is going to reduce global emissions even 1%.

Why am I claiming this? Because we aren’t stopping the rampant expansion of consumerism or the exponential population growth across this rock.

I put this up for thought - the very things known as human rights & freedom of choice -will be the very things that finally end the human races dominance of this planet. I’m not promoting any other solution or ideology. Just pointing out the obvious.


The current amusement for me - having a good friend currently establishing a Brownfields Lithium site, and another in Mozambique processing graphite - is the amount of current resources consumed to extract this wonderful power source.

Each loader is chewing 1,200l a day.
Excavators are even higher again.

It will be a brave new world - and I’ll challenge that the freedoms we have now won’t fit the model - they simply can not.

[DiscoMick]

The house was empty for two weeks after the solar was installed, before they moved back in, so nothing was turned on to draw power. The solar sends surplus power to the grid, earning 20 cents rebate. They were gaining about $5 a day in credits.

[Homestar]

It's not dream land, it's already happening, but stay in denial if that floats your boat.
I've already had my supplier estimate, but for unrelated reasons it's delayed, as prices fall.
The son already has his solar earning him $5 a day, so that's present reality.
Hybrids, which don't have range anxiety, will be the interim as lithium battery prices fall and mass production lowers costs. Have a look at how many Corolla hybrids, costing about $32,000, are already in the traffic.
But hey, if some people want to deny reality, that's their loss.

Yes it's happening, I don't think anyone is denying that but most here are saying it's a 10 to 20 year deal. All things happen slowly to start with, saying that it's all here right now isn't correct as you have to have people actually buying the stuff in decent numbers but most won't jump yet until things are MUCH cheaper, even if they can afford it.

And remember - if everyone had Solar on their houses tomorrow no one would make a cent from them as the local grid would be saturated and no power would go anywhere. As more and more people put solar on they'll have to go with batteries too to make it viable long term - again, more money.

[Phil B]

Totally agree.
As I said earlier there is a plan, just not a very good plan yet.

[DiscoMick]

Yes it's happening, I don't think anyone is denying that but most here are saying it's a 10 to 20 year deal. All things happen slowly to start with, saying that it's all here right now isn't correct as you have to have people actually buying the stuff in decent numbers but most won't jump yet until things are MUCH cheaper, even if they can afford it.

And remember - if everyone had Solar on their houses tomorrow no one would make a cent from them as the local grid would be saturated and no power would go anywhere. As more and more people put solar on they'll have to go with batteries too to make it viable long term - again, more money.If the houses are wired to run off their own solar first and only send the excess to the grid, then the grid should not be saturated.
If there are batteries to run the house at night, then there should be very little effect on the grid.
As 30% of houses already have solar and installations are speeding up, I can't see why it would take 10-20 years. I reckon we will easily pass 50% within 5 years and solar will become normal, with those that don't have solar being left behind. Buyers will demand solar in their houses. It is already a sales point.

[PhilipA]

Less than 1 per cent of electricity was generated by solar power last year according to new figures that show renewable energy’s share of electricity generation falling short of the Renewable Energy Target.

Solar and wind power combined produced 15,000 gigawatt hours of electricity in the 2018 financial year or 7 per cent of the total, less than half the level required under the government’s RET. The target will require retailers to buy 33,000GWh of renewable energy (excluding hydro power) by 2020.
Tony Wood, an energy expert at the Grattan Institute, said the target would nevertheless be achieved, citing more recent figures from the Australian Energy Regulator that indicated a significant ramp up in capacity this year.
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“The uncertainty around the RET caused a delay in renewable investment, so this and next year should see a significant step up in renewable generation,” he said.
The Abbott government reduced the RET from 41,000GWh to 33,000GWh when it became clear the original target would have equated to about 26 per cent of all electricity being sourced from renewable sources — rather than the 20 per cent intended when the target was set — owing to a smaller-than-expected growth in electricity demand.

Quote from Australian of 12/7/2019

[DiscoMick]

The predictions I have seen from ANEMO and other sources suggest a much higher uptake.
Only about one sixth of predicted renewable capacity has been reached. Uptake varies between states, with Qld way ahead and NSW growing well, but other states lagging.
Residential and commercial are also growing at different rates. The market is also separated between the eastern states and SE WA.
The overall power market is also growing at varying rates around the country. Also unknown is how the federal government will behave, while state governments are currently leading the way.
Predictions vary. One from ANEMO was the current renewable 6GW would reach around 20 GW by 2035. But it's all guesswork.
The only thing they all agree on is the growth is rapid and faster than many predicted.

[Loderunner]

If the houses are wired to run off their own solar first and only send the excess to the grid, then the grid should not be saturated.
If there are batteries to run the house at night, then there should be very little effect on the grid.
As 30% of houses already have solar and installations are speeding up, I can't see why it would take 10-20 years. I reckon we will easily pass 50% within 5 years and solar will become normal, with those that don't have solar being left behind. Buyers will demand solar in their houses. It is already a sales point.

Good luck convincing a landlord to retro-fit solar onto a house that he/she isn't liable to pay the power bills for.

There's always going to be early adopters and then there's everyone else that really don't care either way, and just view it as an additional expense they don't need. 3D was the next big thing. Until it wasn't.

Energy companies will do everything in their power to make sure they stay relevant and make a profit. Self-sufficient, off-grid solar is a massive threat to them.

Put it this way, the average life expectancy of a coal power station is approx 40 years. Considering how many are currently being built I would estimate that is about how long it will be before there is full adoption.

I'm all for off-grid solar energy. I just think the tech is not quite there yet.

[Graeme]

My 8kW PV system is useless on overcast days. For May, June and July to date my costs for grid power has exceeded my feed-in credit which is currently 20c/kWh. The system helps significantly overall but it is not a replacement for grid power. A 5kW battery and a new Fronius hybrid inverter to handle my 8KW of panels that hasn't been released yet would in fine weather provide for my peak cost evening usage which would save me on average $1.50 per day. No battery + inverter upgrade for me based on current feed-in and peak costs.

[Tombie]

And I won’t be throwing a battery in the mix whilst I get $0.54 per kWh I export [emoji41]

Being DINK and shift workers we use minimal power (less than average single person) so most goes to the grid.

I’m in credit about $4500.00

[Eevo]

My 8kW PV system is useless on overcast days

today (no sun, rain) my 5kw system has made 5kwh. useless in winter.
doesn even cover the supply charge

[goingbush]

And I won’t be throwing a battery in the mix whilst I get $0.54 per kWh I export [emoji41]

Being DINK and shift workers we use minimal power (less than average single person) so most goes to the grid.

I’m in credit about $4500.00

Exactly, when they stop paying me $0.79 FIT I'll think about building a powered caravan and keep it hooked into the PV array to become my 'power wall' .

[DiscoMick]

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