737 MAX

[Tins]

There was a thread here about the 737 MAX crashes, and I can't find it. Did I miss something or are my search techniques lacking?

[gavinwibrow]

There was a thread here about the 737 MAX crashes, and I can't find it. Did I miss something or are my search techniques lacking?

Start with this one?

Boeing CEO steps down, 737 may never fly again (https://www.aulro.com/afvb/flight/276018-boeing-ceo-steps-down-737-may-never-fly-again.html)

[Tins]

Start with this one?

Boeing CEO steps down, 737 may never fly again (https://www.aulro.com/afvb/flight/276018-boeing-ceo-steps-down-737-may-never-fly-again.html)

Ta, but it wasn't that one, it started earlier and was about the two MCAS crashes.

[JDNSW]

try searching for "Lion Air"

[JDNSW]

And

https://www.aulro.com/afvb/flight/269445-ethiopian-air-lines-flight-goes-down-all-killed.html?269445=#post2891019

[101RRS]

I thought this was the Landie Technical Section not the "I have lost my 737 Max thread" section.

[JDNSW]

You are right - it is in the wrong place!

[VladTepes]

It's OK,
Boeing will probably have it ready to fly again by the time all the airlines have gone bankrupt courtesy of COVID-19.

[JDNSW]

Exactly. How many of the customers that have signed orders will still be in business when it is declared airworthy, and how many of the remaining few will want to buy new planes of a 'bad rep' model, when there are plenty of near new second hand ones available at fire sale prices? I cannot see how Boeing can survive. Certainly the name may do but it will be part of the assets acquired by some company as part of the bankruptcy sale. The major asset is probably the type certificate and spare parts tooling for the thousands of older models that will be flying for years to come.

[87County]

..... I cannot see how Boeing can survive. ....

Interesting comment JD,

Boeing have enormous military contracts . I think that will help save them.

[Tins]

Interesting comment JD,

Boeing have enormous military contracts . I think that will help save them.

Not only that, true as it is. Boeing also have large numbers of aircraft on order worldwide with solvent airlines. But even if airlines fail, new ones will spring up. This Covid nonsense will be over, and people will want to fly again. The 'used aircraft' will not fill the gap the new orders were designed to fill, and there is no way Airbus alone can take up the slack. Boeing also has around 450 Max aircraft parked in car parks. What of them?

Boeing's biggest threat comes perhaps from the same place the virus came from. China would love to get into the serious aircraft manufacturing business, but they are at least a decade behind. Unless, of course, China simply buys Boeing.... Can't see the current POTUS allowing that.

[JDNSW]

Boeing stock dropped 23% yesterday on the NYSE. The military contracts may mean that the government will force some sort of a deal, but it would almost certainly leave existing shares worth zero. The only alternative would be to merge (with who?), again, in a deal that would presumably see the other company get the assets and the government absorbing most of the debt. Again, leaving existing shareholders with nothing.

The receivers could split the military and airliner business, and sell the latter. Or even subdivide it further.

Nobody is going to be making much money in the airliner business in the next decade! (Or the airline business, although the survivors could emerge and grow in a couple of years.)

[Tins]

Boeing stock dropped 23% yesterday on the NYSE. The military contracts may mean that the government will force some sort of a deal, but it would almost certainly leave existing shares worth zero. The only alternative would be to merge (with who?), again, in a deal that would presumably see the other company get the assets and the government absorbing most of the debt. Again, leaving existing shareholders with nothing.

The receivers could split the military and airliner business, and sell the latter. Or even subdivide it further.

Nobody is going to be making much money in the airliner business in the next decade! (Or the airline business, although the survivors could emerge and grow in a couple of years.)

The bail outs mentioned here, and elsewhere, may help a tad...


https://youtu.be/Q5YSzEjc6lw

it's a big package.

[JDNSW]

Probably help - a tad. But it is also probably a drop in the bucket that is needed (if it even gets through congress). And will do nothing to help Boeing.

[Tins]

And will do nothing to help Boeing.

If airlines remain operational then they will need Boeing. There is nobody else with the capacity to build aircraft into the future. The other main player, Airbus couldn't meet their own demand prior to the Covid thing, and that situation will return.

The world will change as a result of this, of that I have no doubt. The US will demand that manufacturing will return home, particularly in essential areas such as pharmaceuticals. (They'd be stupid not to, as China now manufacture around 90% of antibiotics, and therefore have a huge lever to pull in times like this). Borders that are closing will likely remain so, particularly in the US. But international travel will resume.

The US will not allow Boeing to fail, it is far too important to them. Boeing has brought massive prestige to the US, and it is indeed still the largest manufacturer of domestic airliners, although Airbus beat it in deliveries in 2019, for obvious reasons. The 737 Max was/is a PR disaster no doubt, but it is only one of the many types built successfully by Boeing. Air Force One will NEVER be an Airbus, Bombardier, Embraer or Tupolev. It certainly won't be a Comac.

Here is an excellent analysis, albeit pre Covid.
Better Buy: Boeing vs. Airbus | The Motley Fool (https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/10/19/better-buy-boeing-vs-airbus.aspx)

[Tins]

And will do nothing to help Boeing.

This might....


https://youtu.be/vooG27o_88w

[VladTepes]

I think johntins has summed up the aviation and economic situation pretty well - I have to be pedantic on one point.


The US will demand that manufacturing will return home, particularly in essential areas such as pharmaceuticals. (They'd be stupid not to, as China now manufacture around 90% of antibiotics, and therefore have a huge lever to pull in times like this).

COVID-19 is a virus, not susceptible to antibiotics. Thus I'm confused why everyone is suddenly rushing aorunf buying antibacterial hand 'cleanser' ?


But I see what you are getting at. There are many things which, strategically, a nation needs to be able to control to be the master of its own destiny especially at times of crisis.

The Australian government should take note!

[JDNSW]

If airlines remain operational then they will need Boeing. There is nobody else with the capacity to build aircraft into the future. The other main player, Airbus couldn't meet their own demand prior to the Covid thing, and that situation will return.

The world will change as a result of this, of that I have no doubt. The US will demand that manufacturing will return home, particularly in essential areas such as pharmaceuticals. (They'd be stupid not to, as China now manufacture around 90% of antibiotics, and therefore have a huge lever to pull in times like this). Borders that are closing will likely remain so, particularly in the US. But international travel will resume.

The US will not allow Boeing to fail, it is far too important to them. Boeing has brought massive prestige to the US, and it is indeed still the largest manufacturer of domestic airliners, although Airbus beat it in deliveries in 2019, for obvious reasons. The 737 Max was/is a PR disaster no doubt, but it is only one of the many types built successfully by Boeing. Air Force One will NEVER be an Airbus, Bombardier, Embraer or Tupolev. It certainly won't be a Comac.

Here is an excellent analysis, albeit pre Covid.
Better Buy: Boeing vs. Airbus | The Motley Fool (https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/10/19/better-buy-boeing-vs-airbus.aspx)

Boeing, as a manufacturer will continue, at least in name (probably), and the US will continue to manufacture airliners. But the market for new airliners is going to be pretty thin for the next decade at a guess. And just how much what emerges from this will be the company that exists today is anyone's guess.

The 737 Max was not only a PR disaster, it was a disaster in reality, technically, financially and in human terms as well as PR.

And something worth noting - I believe that Australian companies are substantial subassembly contributors to the 737 production. So this is another hit to Australian jobs!

[Tins]

But the market for new airliners is going to be pretty thin for the next decade at a guess.

Ya think? Airbus’ backlog of aircraft remaining to be delivered as of 29 February stood at 7,670. This total was comprised of 6,209 A320 Family aircraft and 547 A220s, as well as 328 A330s, 577 A350 XWBs and nine A380s. (https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/orders-deliveries.html)

Can't quickly find figures for Boeing.




The 737 Max was not only a PR disaster, it was a disaster in reality, technically, financially and in human terms as well as PR.

I think that goes without saying, John. 346 Lives. And the tragedy for their families.


And something worth noting - I believe that Australian companies are substantial subassembly contributors to the 737 production. So this is another hit to Australian jobs!

It's hard to find confirmation of that online ad hoc. Aus was definitely involved with the 737 Wedgetail.

737 manufacture continues as we speak, it's just the Max production that has been suspended.

[101RRS]

COVID-19 is a virus, not susceptible to antibiotics. Thus I'm confused why everyone is suddenly rushing aorunf buying antibacterial hand 'cleanser' ?

Because the majority of domestic antibacterial hand cleansers, in addition to killing bacteria, it also kills most viruses including cold, flu and coronoviruses

[JDNSW]

Ya think? Airbus’ backlog of aircraft remaining to be delivered as of 29 February stood at 7,670. This total was comprised of 6,209 A320 Family aircraft and 547 A220s, as well as 328 A330s, 577 A350 XWBs and nine A380s. (https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/orders-deliveries.html)
.........

How many of the customers who ordered these are still going to be in business in a year's time? And how many of the survivors are going to be in a position to take delivery, given the number of near new airliners that will be on the market at firesale prices by the receivers?

The airline business worldwide is going to be a pale shadow of what it was a month ago after the pandemic is over. A large proportion of the potential tourist traffic will have a lot less money for discretional spending, and businesses will have found that a lot of business travel is not really necessary. And oil is going to be a lot cheaper for a while, reducing the incentive for increased fuel efficiency. Possibly a long time, depends on how deep the recession is.

On the bright side, should help slow climate change.

[Tins]

How many of the customers who ordered these are still going to be in business in a year's time? And how many of the survivors are going to be in a position to take delivery, given the number of near new airliners that will be on the market at firesale prices by the receivers?

The airline business worldwide is going to be a pale shadow of what it was a month ago after the pandemic is over. A large proportion of the potential tourist traffic will have a lot less money for discretional spending, and businesses will have found that a lot of business travel is not really necessary. And oil is going to be a lot cheaper for a while, reducing the incentive for increased fuel efficiency. Possibly a long time, depends on how deep the recession is.

On the bright side, should help slow climate change.

You are as likely to be correct as me, but I hope not.

I'm trying to remain positive, and i can because I firmly believe that

a; this pandemic will be over by July/August, and therefore

b;, the major economies will be back in full swing not long after.

Steps taken by the US will keep THEM going, and we would be wise to keep close trade ties with them. England will benefit also by their slightly wobbly independence from the EU, with freedom to take their own measures ( Not sure what Boris has been doing as my focus has been on the US/Sino stuff).

Sure, a recession is probably inevitable, but we've had those before. Folk who live normal lives, not dominated by the Dow etc. will get through. Fringe businesses will likely fail, but they were likely to anyway. That of course includes airlines. But when PanAm, TWA, and even our own Ansett collapsed, others rose to take up the slack.

Most of the airlines who may fail due to all of this won't have new fleets. They will either be using older aircraft or they will be leasing from the big boys. So it's hard to see where the "fire sale" aircraft will come from. The big players will simply lease their aircraft to new players, and the older ones will be scrapped. Business as usual.

Lean times ahead? Possibly, maybe probably. As I have said before, the world will change, for a time. The US, in particular, will likely become stronger as they pull lots of things they let go back home. The insanely wealthy "Big Tech" mobs may take a hit, but they can afford it and ultimately who cares if Apple or Google lose 20%? Not me. (Biggest concern I have is US debt, and I don't know why because I don't understand my own debt, so how can I grasp a national debt like theirs?)

I entered this discussion with you not to win, John, but because I enjoy it. I've learnt from you. I hope you've learnt from me. Like I said, I hope my stance is the correct one, but I am no longer so foolish to cling to it if events prove me wrong.

I still believe Boeing will survive though, and go some way to paying the Fed back. Their very existence goes a long way to doing just that. Just for now though, I'd prefer to fly Airbus...[bigwhistle] Bigger picture vs self interest.

However, I'll fly on what lines up at the gate. The damn things ALL crash. Air France 447 was an Airbus A330. 'Sully' tells us that was the fault of the control design of Airbus, and if the plane had been a Boeing it could not have happened. ( I would say there was a training issue. Sound familiar? It should. The whole MCAS thing is a result of trying to cut down of training costs,which would have been the result if the 737 Max was regarded as a different type.) {I am NOT comparing the Airbus cockpit differences with Boeing's massive miss-step here, but things do go wrong}


https://youtu.be/kERSSRJant0

I'm not saying which approach is the correct one, Boeing and Airbus supply ALL the large airliners in the western world. I AM saying that Air France 447 was a major disaster, and the world was smack bang in the middle of the so called GFC. Airbus survived, and so did we. This is different, but not by much, in the scheme of things.