Would Australia have enough Electricity (now) if everyone switched to EV ?

[goingbush]

Well worth the time to watch, and hard to argue with the conclusion.


https://youtu.be/12RoTa4qs1E

[Homestar]

Um, very easy to argue the conclusion as he skipped straight over the challenges. Overall, a well put together video with facts, but the challenges he discussed at the end was less than a minute of the video and he completely glossed over them saying ‘yes the technology is there and the infrastructure can be built’ - a sweeping generalisation without any facts to back up my biggest point I’ve been making for some time - who is going to pay for the infrastructure and how much will it cost?

I work almost daily with Network Engineers and they have no idea how it’s all going to be built as the current network can’t handle it and the costs are astronomical. I’ve recently been involved with some Tesla super charging stations - up to $1,000,000 of infrastructure for 6 chargers. So, using the same logic as the guy making the video I could come up with an easy sum to show some rough costs. Let’s say the 900,000 EV’s he was discussing were all on the road next year, and let’s say (I have no idea in reality) that there needed to be a supercharger for say 1 in 20 of those cars. That’s 45,000 chargers - let’s say at $150,000 each all in with the network infrastructure needed (that’s about what it’s costing) so that’s $6.75 Billion to do that.

And his flippant hope that we can come up an extra 1.2% capacity for power. Australia is looking at shutting all it’s coal fired power stations in the next 15 years - they currently make up the majority of our power so if that happens, I can tell you we’ll all be riding horses again as there won’t be enough power to make your morning cup of coffee let alone power all the cars we have. Where’s this magical extra power coming from?

Convenient that he didn’t bother to cover off any detail of the challenges - cost and who’s paying is the biggest issue IMO but if you look at all the data, I don’t think his basic premise stands up,

[goingbush]

Um, very easy to argue the conclusion as he skipped straight over the challenges. Overall, a well put together video with facts, but the challenges he discussed at the end was less than a minute of the video and he completely glossed over them saying ‘yes the technology is there and the infrastructure can be built’ - a sweeping generalisation without any facts to back up my biggest point I’ve been making for some time - who is going to pay for the infrastructure and how much will it cost?

I work almost daily with Network Engineers and they have no idea how it’s all going to be built as the current network can’t handle it and the costs are astronomical. I’ve recently been involved with some Tesla super charging stations - up to $1,000,000 of infrastructure for 6 chargers. So, using the same logic as the guy making the video I could come up with an easy sum to show some rough costs. Let’s say the 900,000 EV’s he was discussing were all on the road next year, and let’s say (I have no idea in reality) that there needed to be a supercharger for say 1 in 20 of those cars. That’s 45,000 chargers - let’s say at $150,000 each all in with the network infrastructure needed (that’s about what it’s costing) so that’s $6.75 Billion to do that.

And his flippant hope that we can come up an extra 1.2% capacity for power. Australia is looking at shutting all it’s coal fired power stations in the next 15 years - they currently make up the majority of our power so if that happens, I can tell you we’ll all be riding horses again as there won’t be enough power to make your morning cup of coffee let alone power all the cars we have. Where’s this magical extra power coming from?

Convenient that he didn’t bother to cover off any detail of the challenges - cost and who’s paying is the biggest issue IMO but if you look at all the data, I don’t think his basic premise stands up,

Put your thoughts in the comments on the youtube video,
Im sure Robert is expecting the typical internet comments, it would be a change to get an intelligent comment from someone that knows what he is talking about .

[AK83]

I think the reality will be that you will need a lot more than 45K charging stations.
Think about it for a sec.
An average EV needs say 30 mins with a super charge to allow a 100-200km added range.
45K points across Aus is very thin on the ground.

an average ICE vehicle needs say 5 mins to top up a car and will net approx 600klms ... my D2 would get 800klm by comparison ... but lets just get rough figures here ... and there are roughly 6500 petrol stations of which many will cater for 12 or so vehicles at any one time.
Then you not only need to multiply by the time taken to fill each respective vehicle type by, but then you need to divide by the number of klms the EV can travel before it needs a charge point again a quick and dirty figure would be 3x.

Otherwise you end up with the situation where not only are the EV owners waiting 30mins for their vehicle to get them another 200klms, but they'll be waiting an estimated 1.5hrs before they get their vehicle to the charge point .. ie. total 'fill up' time taken would be 2hrs.

Driving holidays with the family during the peak holiday periods will be a thing that folks used to do in the old days in their ICE vehicles.

[goingbush]

:soapbox:
I think the reality will be that you will need a lot more than 45K charging stations.
Think about it for a sec.
An average EV needs say 30 mins with a super charge to allow a 100-200km added range.
45K points across Aus is very thin on the ground.

an average ICE vehicle needs say 5 mins to top up a car and will net approx 600klms ... my D2 would get 800klm by comparison ... but lets just get rough figures here ... and there are roughly 6500 petrol stations of which many will cater for 12 or so vehicles at any one time.
Then you not only need to multiply by the time taken to fill each respective vehicle type by, but then you need to divide by the number of klms the EV can travel before it needs a charge point again a quick and dirty figure would be 3x.

Otherwise you end up with the situation where not only are the EV owners waiting 30mins for their vehicle to get them another 200klms, but they'll be waiting an estimated 1.5hrs before they get their vehicle to the charge point .. ie. total 'fill up' time taken would be 2hrs.

Driving holidays with the family during the peak holiday periods will be a thing that folks used to do in the old days in their ICE vehicles.


The "average" driver will rarely if ever need to use a supercharger. ABS says the average daily commute is 35km , Rural commute is 45km .

Clearly this is the wrong demographic to 'spruke' EV as its full of outback tourers far from the domain of 35km commutes.

Ive done my fair share of touring and spent 5 years full time on the road, But Ive almost exclusively driven my EV as a daily driver for the past 4 years, 20,000km and never once needed to charge anywhere other than a 15Amp outlet in my shed. I did plug into a Tesla destination charger just to see if I could, but other that that. For the odd long distance trip I need to make I have 3 fully registered ICE cars to chose from, but to be honest I don't actually remember the last time I bought petrol or diesel, but I keep them fully fuelled up and would be at least 6 months between trips to the servo.

[AK83]

yep, I totally get what you are saying here .. don't be in doubt about that.
Oh! and I'm not arguing any points here .. just adding commentary to view it from another perspective.
When everything just works on the 'average' basis .. yeah, makes sense that we could do like Europe and ban ICE sales in the year .. blah-blah ...

But come 'peak stupidity' times, when everyone is in a freaking mad rush to get to their holiday destination of choice in record time ... 'average' data means nothing.

You know what would be a more pertinent question to answer ... at what point will the globe run out of lithium reserves, and seeing that it's not 100% recyclable and not cheap to recycle at the moment.
The ICE vehicle endured 100+ years of growth and development. I can't see current BEV trends to remain as they currently are .. a cheaper/more readily available supply of raw material or better recyclability is required.

I still believe that, at current levels of technology, fuel cell is still the better long term option for powered transportation of all types(not just passenger cars).

[Tombie]

Lithium isn’t the major component in the batteries. [emoji41]

It’s even rarer elements that are the challenge.

[Homestar]

:soapbox:


The "average" driver will rarely if ever need to use a supercharger. ABS says the average daily commute is 35km , Rural commute is 45km .

Clearly this is the wrong demographic to 'spruke' EV as its full of outback tourers far from the domain of 35km commutes.

Ive done my fair share of touring and spent 5 years full time on the road, But Ive almost exclusively driven my EV as a daily driver for the past 4 years, 20,000km and never once needed to charge anywhere other than a 15Amp outlet in my shed. I did plug into a Tesla destination charger just to see if I could, but other that that. For the odd long distance trip I need to make I have 3 fully registered ICE cars to chose from, but to be honest I don't actually remember the last time I bought petrol or diesel, but I keep them fully fuelled up and would be at least 6 months between trips to the servo.

I get where you’re coming from - my new job would actually be ideal for an EV - I travel around 40KM each way with the odd couple hundred km during the day to see clients, etc. work has 40KW of solar on the roof so could charge it while it’s parked up doing nothing - my previous job saw me doing around 1000km per week with some 800KM days so not practical there - still got a Hilux for my new commute though - supplied by work. I may ask about something different when it’s time to change it out - an EV would be ideal and if I needed to tow anything I could grab one of the spare utes or trucks at work, but not sure what I’d get for around $70K - which is what they’ll let me spend on a new vehicle - don’t want to drive a small **** box is all no matter how it’s powered.

For long distance trips it would be back to ICE though - so there’ll be a need for them for decades to come I think.

[Tins]

But come 'peak stupidity' times, when everyone is in a freaking mad rush to get to their holiday destination of choice in record time ... 'average' data means nothing.

Not only that. We're lucky we're currently in a La Niña. When the cycle changes and we get heatwave conditions we're very much at risk of rolling brownouts as no amount of wind/solar can currently compensate for the decommissioning of plants like Hazlewood. Throwing a massive number of EVs into that mix, well it probably won't be pretty.




I still believe that, at current levels of technology, fuel cell is still the better long term option for powered transportation of all types(not just passenger cars).

I agree, and they work. In California they are installing the infrastructure, and large manufacturers already have models in that market. And fill times are about the same as for LPG.

[Tombie]

Energy regulator is already ringing my supply chain (me) and operations requesting we shut down sections of our plant on these high wind and/or high temp days.

We cannot keep up as is…

[AK83]

Lithium isn’t the major component in the batteries. [emoji41]

It’s even rarer elements that are the challenge.

Ah! my mistake .. I thought approx 100kg per average EV pack .. but it's only 10kg.

But the point still holds.

Remember the hypothetical proposed tho .. if Aus were to wholesale change (say) by banning ICE vehicle sales, and remembering that the Europeans have already planned for this in 13 years time.

if there are now 900,000 new EV required for sale .. this being additional requirements, that would still need an extra 9,000 tons of additional lithium mined over what they did before the additional EVs were required to get to the market place.
This doesn't factor in any new house batteries like Tesla's and LG and so on .. nor the increased volumes of 'devices' power requirements.

Approx 10 million new vehicles are sold in Europe per annum. 20% currently EVs or PHEVs .. so approximately 2 million EVs sold currently in Europe.
When the time comes and those 8-ish million additional EVs are needed to satisfy demand, 80,000 tons of additional lithium will be required to manufacture batteries for those vehicles.
I'm curious as to how much lithium gets recycled .. because in terms of personal devices ... not a lot does ... just goes to landfill and catches fire!

[Tombie]

Yep. You’re seeing the broader issues.

[Tins]

I find it odd that the vast majority of the anti mining crowd see EVs as our saviour. STOP ADANI!. Oh, you want to dig up Wodgina or Pilgangoora? Fine, knock yourselves out.

[Gav 110]

Lithium isn’t the major component in the batteries. [emoji41]

It’s even rarer elements that are the challenge.

And we know who produces and controls most of the rare earth minerals……[emoji630]
America has just invested $30,000,000

The new US plan to rival China'''s dominance in rare earth metals (https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/04/17/the-new-us-plan-to-rival-chinas-dominance-in-rare-earth-metals.html)

Australia has opportunity and should follow America’s lead

Australia’s opportunity to manufacture rare-earth magnets | The Strategist (https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australias-opportunity-to-manufacture-rare-earth-magnets/)

[Tombie]

The bigger environmental concern is the comment on volume required by 2030.

If you consider the amount of earth needing to be chewed up to get to over 400,000t of refined material - that’s an absolutely enormous mining, processing and over-burden/waste generating exercise.

There is no “green” in any of this.

[chuck]

Yes - amount of ground that has to be dug up would be incredible.

As previously mentioned there does not seem to be any balanced long term review of strategy / balance.

EU dictating no more ICE cars could be just kicking the can further down the road.

I would like an electric car but would also have a ICE car for towing, long distance & off road.

Would also like to know the positives & negatives of both cars on the environment, social responsibility etc.

[scarry]

and remembering that the Europeans have already planned for this in 13 years time.

i!

Supposedly,but don’t be surprised if there are going to be quite a few backflips.

[JDNSW]

Lithium is not a particularly rare element, rare earths are somewhat rarer, but needed in much smaller quantities. The issue with them is the processing - which is difficult, expensive and very difficult to do economically and meet environmental rules in first world countries - which is why China has the market tied up. An Australian owned plant in Malaysia has, I believe, been shut down on environmental grounds. The major issue is that the waste from processing is mildly radioactive.

[ramblingboy42]

when I first worked at Olympic Dam it was owned by Western Mining and they processed rare earth minerals and were proud of it.

I think when BHP took over they stopped processing rare earth minerals and focussed on increasing copper and yellowcake production.

There is a fortune in rare earth minerals in the dumps and no doubt the big australian would also know this. They also knowingly leave gold underground so when copper runs out in the year 2525 they have a fall back.

I do believe there is also a lot of sniffing around Broken Hill for some of these special minerals that were left behind in silver/lead/zinc heydays , cobalt being one mined there now.

[goingbush]

The bigger environmental concern is the comment on volume required by 2030.

If you consider the amount of earth needing to be chewed up to get to over 400,000t of refined material - that’s an absolutely enormous mining, processing and over-burden/waste generating exercise.

There is no “green” in any of this.

Realistically since were are not going back to pre industrial revolution (walking) the only green is a significant depopulation event.

[Gav 110]

Realistically since were are not going back to pre industrial revolution (walking) the only green is a significant depopulation event.

We missed that boat, most of the population has been vaccinated 🤭
Best we can hope for on the depopulation front is a good dose of Mother Nature at her worst, floods, earthquakes, volcanoes etc
[emoji481][emoji481]

[ramblingboy42]

I could jump on the soapbox here , but not a good idea.

[Tombie]

We missed that boat, most of the population has been vaccinated [emoji2960]
Best we can hope for on the depopulation front is a good dose of Mother Nature at her worst, floods, earthquakes, volcanoes etc
[emoji481][emoji481]

I’d say the next major event will be WWIII

And unfortunately the way it’s going I think I’ll live to see it happen - may not survive it though.

[Tins]

I’d say the next major event will be WWIII



Every time I hear or read the phrase "the great reset" this is what comes to mind.

[Tombie]

Every time I hear or read the phrase "the great reset" this is what comes to mind.

Society is so close to the edge when it comes to being civil. Won’t take much.

[NavyDiver]

I think the reality will be that you will need a lot more than 45K charging stations.
Think about it for a sec.
An average EV needs say 30 mins with a super charge to allow a 100-200km added range.
45K points across Aus is very thin on the ground.

an average ICE vehicle needs say 5 mins to top up a car and will net approx 600klms ... my D2 would get 800klm by comparison ... but lets just get rough figures here ... and there are roughly 6500 petrol stations of which many will cater for 12 or so vehicles at any one time.
Then you not only need to multiply by the time taken to fill each respective vehicle type by, but then you need to divide by the number of klms the EV can travel before it needs a charge point again a quick and dirty figure would be 3x.

Otherwise you end up with the situation where not only are the EV owners waiting 30mins for their vehicle to get them another 200klms, but they'll be waiting an estimated 1.5hrs before they get their vehicle to the charge point .. ie. total 'fill up' time taken would be 2hrs.

Driving holidays with the family during the peak holiday periods will be a thing that folks used to do in the old days in their ICE vehicles.

Xmas rive with boat dog and kids $360 in fuel++[bigwhistle] Not grumbling I had fun in a week off. Local paper suggested a heap of 50kWh charge options will soon make my EV chemo runs very easy. That like all the ICE cars I suspect are being dumped here worries me a little. Much of the shortly to be available tech from Quatumscape and similar ( I do not hold company any more- Sold way above current prices [biggrin])

I would love a 50 kWh charger in all the planed locations in SW vic. I think 500kWh or more might be a smarter option[biggrin] 3000 plus phone calls today with under 600 able to be answered showed me my online COVID booking system is the only real option. The Tech changes are occurring at a mind numbing rate. Still think hydrogen is my pet development to watch[bigwhistle]

[Tins]

Lithium isn’t the major component in the batteries. [emoji41]

It’s even rarer elements that are the challenge.

And they use children to mine for cobalt in the Congo. Often at the cost of their lives. I wonder why the "peaceful protestors" remain silent about that.

[Phideaux]

I get where you’re coming from - my new job would actually be ideal for an EV - I travel around 40KM each way with the odd couple hundred km during the day to see clients, etc. work has 40KW of solar on the roof so could charge it while it’s parked up doing nothing - my previous job saw me doing around 1000km per week with some 800KM days so not practical there - still got a Hilux for my new commute though - supplied by work. I may ask about something different when it’s time to change it out - an EV would be ideal and if I needed to tow anything I could grab one of the spare utes or trucks at work, but not sure what I’d get for around $70K - which is what they’ll let me spend on a new vehicle - don’t want to drive a small **** box is all no matter how it’s powered.

For long distance trips it would be back to ICE though - so there’ll be a need for them for decades to come I think.

Cheapest EV (or was) MG ZS EV - about $45,000 drive away (or less) (about 150kw/360nm?) - "doesn't feel like a cheapo".
Best value for $ (bang for buck) EV is the base-model RWD Tesla 3 - about $60,000 plus ORC - gives you about 290kw & 600nm?, maybe less)
Best future-proofing with V2G etc - Hyundai Iconiq 5 - about $70-75K - about 190kw/500nm? - but the tech is up-to-the-minute.

"Annual Holiday Panic" I don't quite see. Most people will leave home from 'the home petrol-I-mean-Electricity-station' fully charged; most won't be travelling more than a single charge's worth of distance - there will be a demand surge at mid-points and holiday destinations but that will correspond to a demand-drop at departure points.

The 'we-can't-do-it' objections coming from the Federal (not the State!) level of government relate more to their party contributions than they do to problems which are totally addressable. "We have the technology" but we don't have the will. And we've got a decade or so to get this sorted, even if we have to rely on the States, not the Feds, to get it done.

[Homestar]

Not denying we have the tech, just the money to do it - governments of any description aren’t going to sink the billions required - they will leave it to private enterprise - and there is no return on investment for all of this so I can’t see how it’s going to get on.

[discorevy]

"Annual Holiday Panic" I don't quite see. Most people will leave home from 'the home petrol-I-mean-Electricity-station' fully charged; most won't be travelling more than a single charge's worth of distance - there will be a demand surge at mid-points and holiday destinations but that will correspond to a demand-drop at departure points.



That's a commendable if somewhat optimistic view of human nature!.
I'm more likely ( especially observing first hand, the antics of city dwellers here, approx 400k south of Perth on their holidays) to experience some quiet roads round here if everything moves to EV .
4x4 mainly , towing , overloaded with bling, bogged on beaches at least 50% of which are being driven by know it all bogans who would normally be in Bali but for covid.
Happily, most of these won't make it here in the future as it would involve planning and thinking ahead.

[Tombie]

We have the rudimentary tech.
We don’t have the resources for a large take up.
Nor do we have the infrastructure.

And if Europe goes full steam (spark?) ahead - good luck getting a vehicle in AU as all the production of batteries will go to EU

[Tins]

We have the rudimentary tech.
We don’t have the resources for a large take up.
Nor do we have the infrastructure.

And if Europe goes full steam (spark?) ahead - good luck getting a vehicle in AU as all the production of batteries will go to EU

Don't forget California. Over there EVs are a sexy form of virtue signalling. Some might say the same applies here...

But let's not forget, the most abundant element on earth, and probably the universe, is hydrogen. It's dumb not to explore its use. I believe there to be a project on the Hazlewood site to generate electrickery. But fuel cell cars already exist and work well. Heck, Dean Robinson is even exploring fitting them to new OKAs! To me, EVs are a cul de sac. Through their cycle they do far more damage to the environment than they prevent. Sure, that may not always be the case, but it's the case now, and probably will be for decades.

[FisherX]

If and when there is a bigger uptake in EVs I just keep thinking that they are going to make off peak power and the Snowy River 2.0 pumped hydro obsolete.

Surely when everyone is charging there EVs overnight off peak will become peak.

[JDNSW]

The problem with hydrogen is quite simply - it is hydrogen. From the very basic characteristics of the element it is difficult and expensive to store and to transport, as well as being dangerous. Because it is a gas, it must be stored either at very high pressure or as a chemical compound. In the former case, the container is heavy and expensive, and inevitably leaky, as hydrogen at pressure will permeate through anything, creating a fire and explosion hazard. If stored as a compound there is an immediate loss in efficiency .

But the major problem with hydrogen is overall energy efficiency. Conversion of electricity to hydrogen is at best about 70% efficient, and conversion of hydrogen ->electricity using a fuel cell about the same. This gives an overall energy efficiency for a hydrogen vehicle of about 50% at best, compared with charge/discharge efficiency of an EV battery of about 90+%. In both cases ignoring motor losses (same for both) and distribution losses.

But while electricity losses in grids are well known and understood (5% average?), and many EVs will be charged in practice from local generation on the owner's roof, hydrogen distribution by pipeline or tanker and storage will incur substantial losses simply because hydrogen leaks through anything. (Making hydrogen locally using electricity is even worse on the grid than EVs because of the efficiency losses)

Despite this I see hydrogen being used for some heavy vehicles and also for a lot of machinery, simply because for very large energy storage requirements, its energy/mass ratio is a lot better than batteries despite the need for heavy containers (Which is less of a problem as the amount stored increases). But not for passenger cars and other light vehicles.

[Homestar]

Was just sent this by a friend - quite interesting even though it’s from 6 months ago - https://www.newsmax.com/us/california-electriccars-powergrid/2021/06/28/id/1026765/

Infrastructure is way behind, even with Biden promising Billions for new chargers - there’s no power for them at the moment when demand is high. Will be interesting to see if this is duplicated this year for their upcoming Summer and if it’s got worse or better.

176146

[goingbush]

If and when there is a bigger uptake in EVs I just keep thinking that they are going to make off peak power and the Snowy River 2.0 pumped hydro obsolete.

Surely when everyone is charging there EVs overnight off peak will become peak.

Clearly you didn't watch the video.

[goingbush]

Was just sent this by a friend - quite interesting even though it’s from 6 months ago - https://www.newsmax.com/us/california-electriccars-powergrid/2021/06/28/id/1026765/

Infrastructure is way behind, even with Biden promising Billions for new chargers - there’s no power for them at the moment when demand is high. Will be interesting to see if this is duplicated this year for their upcoming Summer and if it’s got worse or better.

176146

If you fact check it you will find its Fake news, lots of that going around

[Homestar]

If you fact check it you will find its Fake news, lots of that going around

Thanks - happy to be proven wrong.

[Homestar]

If you fact check it you will find its Fake news, lots of that going around

Ok, only fact check I can find is from USA today - California didn't require electric car owners to stop charging (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/06/25/california-didnt-require-electric-car-owners-stop-charging/5320286001/) - which pretty much says what the other article I linked did - that residents were asked to reduce their power consumption due to high load demand - that fact isn't in dispute. This article says that facebook had an article that said they were banned from charging them which was the fake news - which the article I linked didn't - so it is true that the power demand was so high that people were asked to look at their use and the article I linked ISN'T fake news - did you read the article at all - it says quite a few times that residents were asked to reduce loads - not that it banned EV charging - which is the point I was making before - that there isn't enough power if everyone switched to EV's.

[DazzaTD5]

As someone that is very much a layman with regards to EVs, power generation etc I dont have the facts or knowledge but the questions that pop into my head are...

*According to targets set this time next year there will be, what 200K EVs on the road? going from about 6K of EV sales currently?.
*Where will the infrastructure be to charge them? what about households that have 4 or 5 cars, where do they charge their EV?
*4 or 5 cars is quite common, just drive around my area (Rivervale W.A).
*I was told that you can simply put charge plugs in the curbs, sounds great, so this time next year it will be all set up and running?
*So all the EV being charged out the front of a household, how long before local thieves steal the charge leads or simply unplug them as a laugh?
*Who is building the infrastructure? Gov? (the NBN cost so far is something like 50B to 90B )
*I was told the private sector could build the infrastructure?
*I read that typically over the life of a vehicle that EVs are round 20% cheaper? They talk about "life of a vehicle" being 10 years.
*When did 10 years become the end life of a vehicle?
*After 10 years and replacing a EV's battery whats the cost then?
*What happens to the old battery?

*A mate that is an electrical contractor said (vaguely remembering) that charging an EV will be like every household having a additional hot plate on?
*I dont know what it's like where you live, but here in Perth W.A last week we had some hot days that clearly everyone had their air con running, well there was power outages all over Perth which was hampered by repair crews not being able to do repair work due to the fire danger.

*I could EASILY drive a EV as my daily at absolutely no inconvenience to me what so ever. (I mean something like goingbush's EV Land Rover).
*I would need a plug on the front of my house with a long lead that would likely get left out the front when not plugged into my EV as I dont park my vehicle under the carport and is often on the front lawn.

*Lastly if a petrol/diesel vehicle is called a ICE then shouldn't a electric vehicle be called a EM or ED (electric motor/drive) or should a ICE be called a HV (hydrocarbon vehicle) or a FFV (fossil fuel vehicle) or ICEV (internal combustion engine vehicle).
*My pick is ICEV

[Homestar]

Some very good questions - answers to what I know in red below.


As someone that is very much a layman with regards to EVs, power generation etc I dont have the facts or knowledge but the questions that pop into my head are...

*According to targets set this time next year there will be, what 200K EVs on the road? going from about 6K of EV sales currently?.
*Where will the infrastructure be to charge them? what about households that have 4 or 5 cars, where do they charge their EV?- EV would need to be the one in or closest to the garage - if it's like my place, a quick shuffle to get the EV near an outlet would work fine in most cases.
*4 or 5 cars is quite common, just drive around my area (Rivervale W.A).
*I was told that you can simply put charge plugs in the curbs, sounds great, so this time next year it will be all set up and running? Curbside charging infrastructure is a long way off and very expensive - easier to run a lead to a 15 amp outlet beside the house, etc
*So all the EV being charged out the front of a household, how long before local thieves steal the charge leads or simply unplug them as a laugh? Yeah, I can see that happening.
*Who is building the infrastructure? Gov? (the NBN cost so far is something like 50B to 90B )e Private enterprise is so very slow - Gubment are asleep at the wheel on EV's here.
*I was told the private sector could build the infrastructure? ​Yes, but without a business case and return on investment, no one will touch it as neither stack up
*I read that typically over the life of a vehicle that EVs are round 20% cheaper? They talk about "life of a vehicle" being 10 years.
*When did 10 years become the end life of a vehicle? Agreed - it's a push from the OEM's to get you to spend more money on crap vehicles
*After 10 years and replacing a EV's battery whats the cost then?i Very high - despite promises of falling prices for batteries - this hasn't eventuated yet. Was talking to a solar installer yesterday who was telling me prices had risen slightly for batteries over the last 5 years and he wouldn't recommend them for residential use any time soon.
*What happens to the old battery? I'm sure some form of recycling some of their products will happen at some stage but at the moment, land fill

*A mate that is an electrical contractor said (vaguely remembering) that charging an EV will be like every household having a additional hot plate on? Then some - to charge overnight off a standard power point it would be running pretty hard - but it's still cheaper than putting petrol in your car
*I dont know what it's like where you live, but here in Perth W.A last week we had some hot days that clearly everyone had their air con running, well there was power outages all over Perth which was hampered by repair crews not being able to do repair work due to the fire danger. One of the biggest issues and not easy to overcome

*I could EASILY drive a EV as my daily at absolutely no inconvenience to me what so ever. (I mean something like goingbush's EV Land Rover).
*I would need a plug on the front of my house with a long lead that would likely get left out the front when not plugged into my EV as I dont park my vehicle under the carport and is often on the front lawn.

*Lastly if a petrol/diesel vehicle is called a ICE then shouldn't a electric vehicle be called a EM or ED (electric motor/drive) or should a ICE be called a HV (hydrocarbon vehicle) or a FFV (fossil fuel vehicle) or ICEV (internal combustion engine vehicle).
*My pick is ICEV

[goingbush]

I don't know why infrastructure keeps coming up as an issue.

For the average Australian that lives in a house, for 90% of trips If you have a power point you have the infrastructure.

If you live in a high-rise , or other apartment style accomodation , yes you have a problem, but not what its made out to be.

If you need to go on long distances trips your going to need to accept EV are not for you.

[Homestar]

I don't know why infrastructure keeps coming up as an issue.

For the average Australian that lives in a house, for 90% of trips If you have a power point you have the infrastructure.

If you live in a high-rise , or other apartment style accomodation , yes you have a problem, but not what its made out to be.

If you need to go on long distances trips your going to need to accept EV are not for you.

Already covered that - only works for some of the time - very few will buy an EV if there isn’t a decent amount of chargers out in area they want to go - a survey a couple of months ago confirmed that. Doesn’t matter if you personally think it’s right or wrong, that’s the perception out there - and I agree with it as I wouldn’t spend vast amounts of money on an EV if I couldn’t drive it further than work and back without having to spend ages planning the route, working out where the chargers are etc - I’d want to be able to drive to any decent town within its range and know I can charge there - that’s a looooooong way off. I know I’m not the only one that thinks this way - that is why infrastructure is relevant and one of the biggest issues - you can’t tell people they’re wrong and just to buy an EV without addressing their concerns - it just doesn’t work that way.

[grey_ghost]

Isn’t part of Homestar’s point though - yes we all have power points, but if we all buy EV’s then the infrastructure can’t handle it?

I installed solar panels on my house last year - put I can’t send power to the grid because the local infrastructure can’t handle it.

My typical work day is:
Leave home at 6:15am
Arrive at work - park on the street
Come home at 6:45pm

Outside of daylight savings and in particular during winter, I leave home in the dark and get home in the dark.

I can’t charge my EV at work - it’s parked in the street.
I can’t charge my EV overnight using my solar panels.
I don’t get any credits for generating power during the day.

One solution is - buy a battery pack…

How expensive is that? What’s the ROI on the battery pack for the house? What’s the ROI for the battery pack in the car? What environmental damage have I caused when my batteries were made?

My wife’s daily drive is a 98 Freelander (don’t laugh). It’s 23 years old - I am not entirely sure that any EV battery would last that long?

FYI - I would love an EV if I could make it work for my situation.

[Homestar]

ROI on a battery pack at the moment is around 15 to 20 years depending on how it's utilised - not viable IMO at the moment for most.

[Tombie]

I actually don’t think the Gov is asleep at the wheel.
I think in this case they aren’t going to throw tonnes of cash at something about to become redundant long before ROI.

[goingbush]

I actually don’t think the Gov is asleep at the wheel.
I think in this case they aren’t going to throw tonnes of cash at something about to become redundant long before ROI.

You don't really think they are that smart do you,
or did they actually learn something with the NBN rollout , oops its not rolled out yet AND it was obsolete before rollout even began.

[JDNSW]

The question asked as the title of this thread is pretty rhetorical - it is simply impossible that for everyone to switch to EVs now. Even using the most optimistic EV enthusiast's predictions, EVs will not outnumber fuelled vehicle sales new until 2025, and realistically this will be 2030. With an average vehicle life of ten years it will probably be well into the 2030s or even later that 50% of vehicles on the road will be EVs.

The grid will be updated over time to accommodate the demand, the same as happened with airconditioning homes in the last quarter of the twentieth century, which resulted in a major shift in not only the quantity of power demand but the timing of that demand. I expect there will be problems and power shortages in some places, but this is hardly new - it has been going on all my life.

[PhilipA]

Well now that Natural Gas is considered "green" this will be a lot easier! LOL
And I look forward to our first Nuclear power station.

Regards PhilipA

[NavyDiver]

Well now that Natural Gas is considered "green" this will be a lot easier! LOL
And I look forward to our first Nuclear power station.

Regards PhilipA

A few Nuclear power plants coming to Australia Philip. They will sink of course[biggrin] N Subs I mean.

The E.U. including some gas and Nuclear in Green is interesting but off topic. On energy we all use in in our Landies electric, petrol or Diesel.

The energy required to:

Extract oil
transport to refineries
Make a litre of fuel
Transport it to consumers
Pump it into our trucks

Suspect the cost is one of the reason fuel costs are currently about $1.60per litre ish for petrol or Diesel and $0.36 per kWh for electricity? (Possibly a lot less if Solar on the roof is used)

What is clear is changes in demand are occurring world wide. Even those Monster RAMs are going EV (2024) I am thinking of selling my quirky one as there none available now for several months and some option to be a true disco replacement are as normal "Coming one day" [bigrolf] With 7 years left on my mg's warranty it just might sell, I hate the idea of tire kicker so probably won't. Kids driving in a year or two can have it likely.

Still amazed by all the feathering at the massive wind farms. So much power not used except at peak time still offers options once better storage or cheap power use can be rolled out.

[PhilipA]

Huh?
the reason fuel is 1.60 is that at least 50cents per litre is tax.
I read yesterday that in the UK it is now a requirement that car chargers are now to be separately billed and able to be centrally controlled to allow authorities to turn them off at times of high demand.
Next step will be tax.
Lets see how smug the EV drivers are when they pay an equivalent tax level to liquid fuel.
Regards PhilipA

[Tins]

The grid will be updated over time to accommodate the demand, the same as happened with airconditioning homes in the last quarter of the twentieth century, which resulted in a major shift in not only the quantity of power demand but the timing of that demand.

The only thing wrong with that analogy is that they weren't simultaneously decommissioning major generating plants and replacing them with unreliable alternatives. Hazlewood and Bayswater were capable of supplying 90% of their ( large ) CF 24/7. Even the most avid supporter of "renewables" would have to admit that they aren't capable of anything like that. Take hydro out of the equation ( might as well, because Tasmania aside it's around 5% of our energy source ) and "renewables" are lucky to provide 15% of their CF on average.

I. too. am used to outages. Happened all of my life as well. But don't you think that after 60 or whatever years we could do better?

[JDNSW]

Speaking for myself, I have - I have not been grid connected since 1994!

[Tins]

Huh?
the reason fuel is 1.60 is that at least 50cents per litre is tax.
I read yesterday that in the UK it is now a requirement that car chargers are now to be separately billed and able to be centrally controlled to allow authorities to turn them off at times of high demand.
Next step will be tax.
Lets see how smug the EV drivers are when they pay an equivalent tax level to liquid fuel.
Regards PhilipA

Indeed. I can't imagine Govt forgoing the revenue they milk from the roads simply to show their green credentials ( a fantasy anyway ). Then the supply cost will be manipulated by Govt and the wholesalers to increase revenue for both.

The main factor in fuel prices here is the Terminal Gate Price. We are beholden to that because we ceased our own refining operations and a large % of our fuel comes from OS. So, if the price goes up in South Korea it goes up here.

[Tins]

Speaking for myself, I have - I have not been grid connected since 1994!

I simply can't do that where I live. But I intend to make it happen wherever it is I go. All I need is a perennial creek.

[PhilipA]

An interesting article form Road&Track which indicates that only small percentages of populations, EG 5% in the USA intend to buy EVs as their next vehicle.

Road & Track (roadandtrack.com) (https://www.roadandtrack.com/)
It quotes a worldwide Deloitte study which asked drivers in many countries of their buying intentions.
I Have not read the full study but I bet that Australia will be down at the 5% level also.
Maybe all those car companies abandoning research on ICE engines are setting themselves up for losses.
Regards PhilipA
I have now read the Deloitte survey and it is very interesting stuff. BTW Australia is included in SE Asia.

One of the most interesting things to me is that consumers in many countries do not see EVs as superior to ICE vehicles from an environment point of view, with many at about 50/50.
BTW I quoted a post about mandatory separtae billing of EV chargers in UK.
Here is the reference to the article
EV Chargers To Be Separately Metered – Watts Up With That? (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/01/07/ev-chargers-to-be-separately-metered/)

[NavyDiver]

An interesting article form Road&Track which indicates that only small percentages of populations, EG 5% in the USA intend to buy EVs as their next vehicle.

Road & Track (roadandtrack.com) (https://www.roadandtrack.com/)
It quotes a worldwide Deloitte study which asked drivers in many countries of their buying intentions.
I Have not read the full study but I bet that Australia will be down at the 5% level also.
Maybe all those car companies abandoning research on ICE engines are setting themselves up for losses.
Regards PhilipA
I have now read the Deloitte survey and it is very interesting stuff. BTW Australia is included in SE Asia.

One of the most interesting things to me is that consumers in many countries do not see EVs as superior to ICE vehicles from an environment point of view, with many at about 50/50.
BTW I quoted a post about mandatory separtae billing of EV chargers in UK.
Here is the reference to the article
EV Chargers To Be Separately Metered – Watts Up With That? (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/01/07/ev-chargers-to-be-separately-metered/)

A mix of 1950 tobacco V cancer to the current mix of anti via confusion and variation? No one can say a EV is carbon neutral as it takes a lot of resources and energy to make ICE or EV.

The make Doubt via the tabacco industry via White Coat doubt was a very effective strategy from 1954 when mice proved tar on their skin resulted in cancer. 150+ court cases from 1950s to 1990 lost to the disinformation campaign by tobacco. Doubt campaign was a rule book via tobacco which climate change operation has used to the same effect. 1990 air hostess with lung cancers from passive smoking was the first kick to tobacco expert white coat disinformation programs. 350 million for that one.

The disinformation from 1950s guide to making doubt targeted less educated older men. I wonder if I am in that group to try?As I have a silly MG ev I hope not. Its not a disco replacement. I wish and trust I may have one soon as the options is clear.

"In 1989, shortly after the presentation by the Exxon's manager of science and strategy development Duane LeVine to the board of directors which reiterated that introducing public policy to combat climate change "can lead to irreversible and costly Draconian steps," the company shifted its position on the climate change ... "
The year before Both Margaret Thatcher and George Bush made unequivocal statements on climate change. The play book by oil and tobacco is identical and busted plus by the documents the idiots left for history to see.

I could be wrong as I only heard this on a BBC pod cast on Doubt today which seemed to have more than enough documents to make a nasty joke of the oil and tobacco industry. make up your own mind is ok. ignoring the clear disinformation seems a little odd to me.

[350RRC]

......................

The main factor in fuel prices here is the Terminal Gate Price. We are beholden to that because we ceased our own refining operations and a large % of our fuel comes from OS. So, if the price goes up in South Korea it goes up here.

World parity pricing started in the Hawke era.

The idea at the time was to get the existing explorers, drillers and refiners making enough money to keep exploring, drilling and refining.

DL

[Tins]

World parity pricing started in the Hawke era.

The idea at the time was to get the existing explorers, drillers and refiners making enough money to keep exploring, drilling and refining.

DL

Yes. In those days it was OPEC. Hawke, Keating, Howard all adhered to it. The why still eludes me. Exploring, drilling and refining was going to proceed no matter what Canberra thought. Still does.

Strange, under their previous administration, the US became independent of the rest of the world's oil, and were a nett exporter. Wonder what happened.

[350RRC]

Yes. In those days it was OPEC. Hawke, Keating, Howard all adhered to it. The why still eludes me. Exploring, drilling and refining was going to proceed no matter what Canberra thought. Still does.

Strange, under their previous administration, the US became independent of the rest of the world's oil, and were a nett exporter. Wonder what happened.

New tech............. fracking.

[Tins]

New tech............. fracking.

Yes, and a certain pipeline. However, the US is going to use oil. only now they have to buy it elsewhere. But they'll still use it, so what has been gained? Well, apart from something I am not allowed to talk about under our new masters.

[JDNSW]

World parity pricing started in the Hawke era.

The idea at the time was to get the existing explorers, drillers and refiners making enough money to keep exploring, drilling and refining.

DL

Not exactly. Existing producers were a bit upset that they were unable to export their oil to the world market where it sold for a lot more than in Australia, and would be explorers certainly were not going to explore where returns would be far less than exploring elsewhere. The government took the view that as local production decreased, Australia would be paying world prices anyway, but if production could be sustained here, at least the royalties and taxes on production would go to Canberra not Riyadh.

The major beneficiaries from the change in oil pricing were shareholders in (mostly small) Australian oil companies, and long term, as a result of the exploration that followed, state and federal governments making major parts of their budget from royalties and taxes on the gas export industry that has resulted.

[ramblingboy42]

my b.i.l works in a dealership in the Caribbean and yesterday his boss....who owns nearly all dealerships in the Caribbean .....told him there will be a total phasing out of ice vehicles for sale in the Caribbean by 2025.

the only vehicles available by then will be electric. Mick , my b.i.l , is from today receiving and implementing a training program for his service technicians on new EV's from the major manufacturers and he will be busy travelling around the islands and the US training techs wherever they sell vehicles for the next 2 years.

it's very interesting that he can travel throughout the Caribbean and US extensively , but is really struggling to get clearance to come back to Australia for a months holiday.

sometimes this country seems so backward.

[NavyDiver]

my b.i.l works in a dealership in the Caribbean and yesterday his boss....who owns nearly all dealerships in the Caribbean .....told him there will be a total phasing out of ice vehicles for sale in the Caribbean by 2025.

the only vehicles available by then will be electric. Mick , my b.i.l , is from today receiving and implementing a training program for his service technicians on new EV's from the major manufacturers and he will be busy travelling around the islands and the US training techs wherever they sell vehicles for the next 2 years.

it's very interesting that he can travel throughout the Caribbean and US extensively , but is really struggling to get clearance to come back to Australia for a months holiday.

sometimes this country seems so backward.

News in one country is GASP about to ban ICE lawnmower and whipper snipers! I love the quiet one I have now ear protection not really essential unlike the old ones.

My boat motor is for sale before that bites my butt[thumbsupbig] Mario even ribbed me about it when I took him fishing ( Ok it was a boat trip as my nav markers were way off target![biggrin]) Not that an option exists today to power it off the shelf. Not far I hear. [bigwhistle]

[VladTepes]

My boat motor is for sale before that bites my butt[thumbsupbig]
Not that an option exists today to power it off the shelf. Not far I hear. [bigwhistle]

I've been looking at a lot of marine EV options on YouTube (just for interests sakes I dont own a boat at the moment) and I think its quite a few years yet before a practical option with decent range will be available.
(The issue being that the volume and weight of batteries required for a decent range is not practical for a small boat)

For larger boats, over time I can see catamarans becoming more common that monohulls due to added real estate for solar panels.

[trout1105]

I've been looking at a lot of marine EV options on YouTube (just for interests sakes I dont own a boat at the moment) and I think its quite a few years yet before a practical option with decent range will be available.
(The issue being that the volume and weight of batteries required for a decent range is not practical for a small boat)

For larger boats, over time I can see catamarans becoming more common that monohulls due to added real estate for solar panels.

There is always the option of going low tech and just use a set of oars on a small boat [biggrin]

[JDNSW]

And, of course, there are sails. But this raises the question as to what you plan to make the sails out of, if there is no oil production? (Almost all sails are made of polyester, which is a petrochemical.)

[trout1105]

And, of course, there are sails. But this raises the question as to what you plan to make the sails out of, if there is no oil production? (Almost all sails are made of polyester, which is a petrochemical.)

Canvass [thumbsupbig]

[p38arover]

Canvass [thumbsupbig]

I’d like to canvass some thoughts on using canvas. 😀

[p38arover]

*So all the EV being charged out the front of a household, how long before local thieves steal the charge leads or simply unplug them as a laugh?

I recently watched a YouTube video where an EV owner went to several charger locations and the charger cables had been stolen for the copper. He claimed the repair costs were in the thousands, I don’t know why that would be.

[NavyDiver]

I recently watched a YouTube video where an EV owner went to several charger locations and the charger cables had been stolen for the copper. He claimed the repair costs were in the thousands, I don’t know why that would be.

Train line have had the same issue[bigwhistle] It wasn't me! Copper is a interesting commodity I watch with interest.


A few sites have BYO cable. I have one in my MG used only 2 times to date. Did a freebie DC charge at a uni not to far from me while I went for a hour run today. Three Tesla's lined up waiting for me. I use the DC only to help my battery cell balancing. Tight arsed cheap BMS in my case as the other one here burps and farts all night and seems to do it itself.

A Dr I know well has a Toyota Camry Hybrid while his Germany car is repaired from a Rear ender- Ouch. He commented about it being very quiet and quick off the line. Suspect his next when required may be better than mine[biggrin]

I did use a few liters of Disco today, 3 tonnes of recycled cardboard is beyond the MG [thumbsupbig]

[p38arover]

Train line have had the same issue[bigwhistle] It wasn't me! Copper is a interesting commodity I watch with interest.

When I was a signaller in the NSW railways (in a signal box) I had at least one occasion when the signalling system faulted because someone cut and stole the heavy copper rail bonding. When the signal electricians replaced them, they used aluminium, not copper.