Green washing- Cost- reality and alternative energy

[NavyDiver]

Reading "Japan reverses nuclear energy phase-out policy amid global fuel shortages, climate change" got me onto Green washing by omission or just unscientific based claims.

I think/hope a thread "Green washing- Cost- reality and alternative energy" to keep it together might be of interest to several people

"Takeo Kikkawa, an economics professor at the International University of Japan and an expert on energy, said utility operators under the new policy could keep using old equipment instead of investing in new technology or renewables.He also said prolonging the operational life of old reactors is unsafe. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-22/japan-nuclear-energy-phase-out-reversal/101803800?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web)"


Economics is A social science not an exact science. All economic and most people know Return on Investment (ROI) over 10 years is not as good as ROI over 40, 50 or longer. It is clear that most of the Nuclear plants running today can safely do. Testing and maintenance is required of course. There is experts then there are other experts of course in economics

ROI, replacement cost and wasted issues on 10 year or so life of most other C02 free power types is clearly not highlighted by the same journalists!


Over engineering of many aspects of several energy systems is required for normal safety and operations. The life span of equipment is proven to be extended well into decades by many people on this Forum [biggrin] "maintenance is required of course" Some of my warships operated in Vietnam and continued to operated well into the 1990s. I played with a few BIG ship built before WW2
while on those.

On my high horse about economics again :) Green washing is at times simply untrue but reported widely. I am not anti wind, solar or any 'safe' C02 free option.

The alternate view such as "Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda (https://jalopnik.com/toyota-still-isnt-all-in-on-ev-adoption-1849601175) who the Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/toyota-president-says-silent-majority-has-doubts-about-pursuing-only-evs-11671372223'mod=hp_lista_pos2) reports is still on the fence about going all-in on EVs. While most automakers have been laying out their future EV plans, Toyota has seemed to remain committed (https://jalopnik.com/toyota-isnt-quite-ready-to-boost-ev-output-1849704163) to hybrids and hydrogen. Toyoda says that EVs shouldn’t be the only path forward. Hybrids and hydrogen, he believes, are great alternatives, especially as EV prices remain high — something Toyota pointed out. Toyoda says that he has tried to convince both industry and government officials of this and described the efforts as tiring."

Mr Toyoda is not alone "Executives at both Nissan and Mazda have voiced scepticism on whether or not jumping all-in on EVs was too rushed or the right answer. Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida admitted the company may have been too aggressive with the first gen of the Leaf; Mazda has taken a more blatant and sceptical stance regarding EVs"

I like EV clearly so may be accused of Green washing perhaps. In my defense have never suggested the current EV types are perfect! [thumbsupbig]

[scarry]

Blind Freddy can see Toyota read the new auto market better than any other vehicle manufacturer.

Love them or hate them, for whatever reason,they sold something like 8M vehicles last year,daylight to the next at around 5 Mill.

Once the big ones,VW,Ford,GM,Toyota,etc get into Ev's,if they ever do,Tesla will probably end up a minor player in the market.

The big manufacturers have huge advantages over the smaller players.

[NavyDiver]

Blind Freddy can see Toyota read the new auto market better than any other vehicle manufacturer.

Love them or hate them, for whatever reason,they sold something like 8M vehicles last year,daylight to the next at around 5 Mill.

Once the big ones,VW,Ford,GM,Toyota,etc get into Ev's,if they ever do,Tesla will probably end up a minor player in the market.

The big manufacturers have huge advantages over the smaller players.

Fully agree[thumbsupbig]

"Tesla’s new vulnerability is a surprising development. At its towering peak, last fall, Musk’s car company hit a stock market valuation of more than a trillion dollars, greater than the combined value (https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-market-cap-eclipses-that-top-5-rival-carmakers-combined-2021-10-26/) of the five largest automakers in the world. Tesla looked unstoppable. While rival manufacturers suffered punishing supply shortages that held back sales through much of 2021, Tesla’s once-mocked investments in building its own software and components allowed it to ride out supply-chain kinks (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/08/business/teslas-computer-chips-supply-chain.html), resulting in record sales.

Then, inexplicably, Musk turned to Twitter and pushed Tesla off a cliff."

The valuation given to Tesla was nuts![bigrolf] Opinion | Elon Musk’s Twitter Antics Are Hurting Tesla’s Brand - The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/23/opinion/musk-is-hurting-tesla-brand.html)

Chevy Bolt and others are undercutting the cheap Tesla by 10,000 or a lot more in the US.

[NavyDiver]

"Rewired"

The article green washed a bit!

Energy boss warns higher bills are here to stay

Mr Opedal said it was doubtful that gas and electricity bills would return to a time when the typical UK household was paying around £1,300 a year. The typical annual bill for homes is currently around £2,500 which includes help from the UK government.

Mr Opedal said there is "a kind of re-wiring of the whole energy system in Europe particularly after the gas from Russia was taken away". He said huge investment in renewables was needed, including using more hydrogen for example.

"Energy boss warns higher bills are here to stay - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64270157)"


we maximise gas production in British waters and accelerate nuclear and renewables. ... CEO Anders Opedal, they discussed Scotland's ambitions in energy . (https://www.google.com/url'sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj-t-fM78r8AhVUzDgGHRteC04QFnoECAkQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fandop68&usg=AOvVaw3-HUxgow5PUBjATBaTRXh3)." The non green washed included the required nuclear power blind freddy can see is needed.

Mr Musk new world record for losing money was not a CV highlight [bigwhistle]

[NavyDiver]

Mr Gorman was Solar power++++ in Canada.

What is cool about this is it has actual numbers 42mw to 80+ by 2040 in one state is a number to cover Industry and every thing. His view that too much at some times only tosses every thing out of balance is my thoughts as well.

Happily as much excess wind and solar... may be able to be stored via Hydrogen soon As much as some want impossible Nuclear Free. It is also essential for Cancer treatment and other Medical/industrial uses. AND the C02 free energy needed now and in the future.


Enjoyed this while out for a long run today My Dog gave up at 20km[bigrolf]


John Gorman, President and CEO of the Canadian Nuclear Association, joins Marc Bianchi to discuss Canada’s outlook for nuclear power including significant life extension programs for existing reactors and efforts to support the deployment of Small Modular Reactor (SMR) designs.


For Disclosures, click here bit.ly/3cPHkNW



Unsupported browser (https://open.spotify.com/episode/2R2saITGM0bX5GANXSMJ5x'si=0dcb78937d1e491a)

[NavyDiver]

Tricks with "If they build it they will come"?
@Narangga nice post in EV reminded me of the Battery MEGA factory plan in the UK and a 4200km sub-sea cable from Australia to Singapore

"UK backs EV battery gigafactory to be built on site of former coal plant" was 2022 news. 2023 failure and bankrupt.

6.3 billion of UK taxpayer mostly money and egg on a lot of faces.

Even a Little Aussie in this now with "London | Geelong-based battery start-up Recharge Industries (https://www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p5cd15) has lobbed an 11th-hour bid for failed UK battery maker Britishvolt, which collapsed in spectacular and public fashion earlier this month.

If successful, Recharge would take over Britishvolt’s unbuilt £3.8 billion ($6.7 billion) battery gigafactory in northern England, "


Battery Mega factories are being built. Their life span is dependent on four critical things. The right technology, The right prices (secure supply chains for Inputs, energy and wage costs), Secure customers and the highly volatile technology changes which may make current redundant very quickly.

Back to our own little HYPED up fail. AAPowerLink was developed by the Singaporean firm Sun Cable, part owned by Andrew Forrest and Mike Cannon-Brookes. The hype around the very very ambitious plan was clear. AFR- "Singapore is very serious about importing renewable electricity. But the city-state has invested little in Sun Cable’s audacious plan (https://www.afr.com/link/follow-20180101-p5cbup) to supply solar power via a 4200km sub-sea cable from Darwin."

My own Solar, Hydrogen or Nuclear hype is possibly in this mix. There will be successes and failures in my mix. Mergers as well [biggrin][biggrin][biggrin]

[B]NOT investment advice- Possibly added to temper my own enthusiasm for some sectors I do invest in[biggrin]

[NavyDiver]

"The current control methods include passive trapping, aerial and ground mustering and rehoming when possible." and resulted in a "Brumby population in Kosciuszko National Park up 30 per cent (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-27/brumby-population-up-30-per-cent-in-kosciuszko-study-finds/101899022)"

I love horses- management is needed as its well know what happens when its dry up there!

[NavyDiver]

Makes Germany look very silly I think. Spain with $$$$$$$$$$$ from Hydrogen projects is self interest perhaps




France in new row with Germany and Spain over nuclear-derived hydrogenFrance in new row with Germany and Spain over nuclear-derived hydrogen | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/france-new-row-with-germany-spain-over-nuclear-derived-hydrogen-2023-02-08/)
I wonder how this will go down in the EU parliament who has already added Nuclear Power to green taxonomy

[NavyDiver]

Carbon Credits and Carbon off sets - Its fine if true. Its a scam if not.

Get paid to not cut down trees in return for Carbon Credits and Carbon off sets while doing that get paid for cutting them down! Sounds like a huge scam here! The question is who pays and who has the cash in their pockets now!



Carbon credit schemes in Papua New Guinea raise fears of unfulfilled promises and ineffective projects - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-14/carbon-credits-projects-papua-new-guinea-logging-four-corners/101936714)

[NavyDiver]

Australia must transcend the hype over hydrogen and narrow its use down to practical industrial options, a leading business group says.
Employer association Ai Group's chief executive Innes Willox will tell a summit the energy source "is not the be-all and end-all, but it can still be a very big deal".
"We should establish near-zero emissions production capacity for aluminium, ammonia and steel with output equivalent to at least half of Australia's current primary production of those products," he will say at the event in Brisbane on Thursday.
That requires large-scale, near-zero emissions hydrogen production capacity of roughly 300,000 tonnes per year, according to Mr Willox, which would require at least six gigawatts of renewable generation to make.
"Large policy signals" equivalent to tens of billions of dollars in incentives would be needed to promote investment to decarbonise local industry and build new export partnerships, he will say.
"

I agree with Mr Willcox on most bits. Six plus gigawatts of power is required to keep you lights on which is far better ROI then the seven time more power intensive hydrogen Electrolysis is over Hazer Hydrogen Pyrolysis.

"Eraring Power Station is a coal -fired power station consisting of four 720 MW Toshiba steam -driven turbo- alternators for a combined capacity of 2,880 MW. The station is located near the township of Dora Creek, on the western shore of Lake Macquarie, New South Wales, Australia and is owned and operated by Origin Energy." Billions on NSW money about to keep that one open past its use by date due to power needed!

[RANDLOVER]

Australian lobby groups oppose greenwashing overhaul as study finds conservation claims lack evidence - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2023-09-15/greenwashing-inquiry-sabotage-fears-extension-lobby-groups/102732184)

The Feds are holding an enquiry into greenwashing and want to change the law, but big oil is lobbying against that.

[NavyDiver]

Australian lobby groups oppose greenwashing overhaul as study finds conservation claims lack evidence - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2023-09-15/greenwashing-inquiry-sabotage-fears-extension-lobby-groups/102732184)

The Feds are holding an enquiry into greenwashing and want to change the law, but big oil is lobbying against that.

It washes both ways/ Today silly Billion $ Nuclear claim was rather ironic given the billions about to be added to your power bills


The clean energy super highway has hit a roadblock. Here's why
"NSW — $200,000 per kilometre over 20 yearsVIC — $200,000 per kilometre over 25 years
QLD — on average $300,000 per kilometre over 20 years"
ABC link (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-17/clean-energy-super-highway-hits-roadblock-farmers-lock-the-gate/102812602)

Instead of real review the Energy Minster claims "Energy minister says replacing coal-fired power stations with nuclear would cost $387 billion"

I wonder where he gets his numbers from as a really good actual case study of this in Canada suggests some ones pants are on fire[bigwhistle][bigwhistle][bigwhistle][bigwhistle][bigwhistle][bigwhistle][bigwhistle] Link (https://open.spotify.com/episode/08hulFlse2tu42aFiCVY1r'si=MnlDYoKcQ3OGMEW_Y99AXA&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=copy-link&nd=1&_branch_match_id=999837977742214149&_branch_referrer=H4sIAAAAAAAAA8soKSkottLXLy7IL8lMq 9TLyczL1s8wioxMd8k0snROAgCBOPPAIAAAAA%3D%3D) "Dr. Keefer’s speech at Minerals Week in Australia sharing the story of Ontario’s coal phaseout & the decarbonization of its electricity grid."

[NavyDiver]

Another example were poor planning is impacting on us all. Tax payer subsidies for part time power may not be very bright at all!

It perversely cannabises' it self if this clear example ", Gridcog said large-scale solar farms were, perversely, being hit hardest by the trend because rooftop solar was generally beyond the control of the market operator.It noted utility-scale solar plants were having to pare back generation or switch off entirely during such periods to avoid having to pay to maintain production.
"Price cannibalisation is a major emerging feature of the energy transition," the company wrote on LinkedIn.

"It occurs when increased volumes of renewables with the same generation profile produce at the same time."



Rooftop solar '''cannibalising''' power prices as Australian generators pay to stay online - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-23/rooftop-solar-cannibalising-australian-power-market/102889710?utm_campaign=newsweb-article-new-share-null&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web)

[prelude]

With little more to do whilst waiting in a hotel in Greece, I thought I'd open this thread :) Since I still have a few minutes left, why not spew my 2 cents...

What I have taken away from all this green hubbub over the past 20 years (at least that's when the early seeds were sown in my recollection) is this:



Green washing is a thing. Who knew [bighmmm]
big oil is being replaced by "big green?" ie. a trillion+ dollar industry pushing their will down everyones throat

ie. it's all about the money
even if there is merit, the best solution will not be chosen (from a technical point of view) only the most profitable
scapegoats like CO2 are abused to within an inch of their life


follow the money is also applicable, I was once naive enough to think it would not apply to green stuff (WRONG)
politics play a major role it seems and not just because of money, see below.


I mean, it is fairly straight forward but I thought it useful to say out loud.

Regarding politics, far be it for me to go into tin-foil-hat territory here, that belongs in the conspiracy theory thread elsewhere :) but...
As we can now see with Russia and it's gas the west has a dependency on there are reasons to try and find alternatives. The same goes for dependency on oil from the middle east. I am not sure nuclear would be a resource we could find enough of "locally" though, in other words: uranium. Then again solar panels are almost exclusively produced in china, a country I am getting quite sick of supporting (well the CCP that is). Since OZ rode through the 2008 financial crisis with relative ease only because they provided china with all the resources it needed it is safe to say you guys are very dependent on them. Perhaps batteries worth a few billion and other "weird" decisions are made on the political understanding that we do appreciate the largest buyer of your goods. From that POV the entire green washing thing is just a shift of power from the middle east and OPEC to china and... well china.

It is easy to think that that is by design but perhaps it is just an opportunity that is being made use of. I for one have given up blaming the governments (locally, regionally, etc.) of deliberately screwing us over where in most cases plain stupidity or at the very least incompetence is the more obvious and most likely culprit.

Circling back to Greece... Since Greece is part of the EU most of the EU rules SHOULD be implemented here they are not since luckily for the more southern countries our benevolent overlords in brussels do allow for some countries to walk a bit slower towards the common goals than others. Take cars for instance. I have seen it mentioned somewhere here on the forum that a fellow member seems to think that OZ is a bit backward and that Australia should have adopted more stringent EURO x (at 7 currently I believe?) emissions standards and blablabla. I guess if you live in a city that you may have a point but...

We drove from our little backwater through Germany, Austria, Hungary, Serbia, North Macedonia and finally into Greece and what struck me was that I found cars with Dutch lettering still on the sides and a Greek license plate with some lettering in Greek on the door also German lettering on trucks and trailers with Bulgarian license plates, etc. etc. Pushing through the mountains here with 5% inclines you would see huge clouds of black smoke bellowing from trucks and cars. I must say I miss the days of seeing trucks like that so at first I did kind of enjoy it. Ahhh the smell of diesel power, the raw bellowing of an unrestrained be it old engine. Of course it got old so the air recirculation button was found quickly to keep the inside of the cabin a bit more breathable. After spending a few days in the second largest city in Greece, Thessaloniki, the pink glasses of vacation wore off and it suddenly occurred to me: All the old cars that are no longer allowed due to emissions in the "rich" north-west of Europe do not get scrapped at all! Yes, some of them are in such a state that it does not make economical sense to transport them 2500k's down to the south and then have a healthy profit margin left so they do get scrapped but... the parts like engines DO live on as spares for the south and east. We get the crap that nobody wants, they take the useful chunks that are easier to transport, but I digress.

It comes down to this: EURO rules are more or less a scam. Yes, they do clean the air up somewhat in your direct neighbourhood however the pollution/emissions of those vehicles that you traded in when you spend your mullah on that virtue signaling tesla POS is NOT going away at all, it's just moved elsewhere where it does not die out for at least another 20 years. Fortunately we all know that CO2 and other emissions respect international borders so that's all good.

One last little example then before I wrap this up. There is a Dutch city called Arnhem which has the most stringent emissions rules in it's city centre of all the Dutch cities at current. With these rules they deleted a whole bunch of pre 2004 diesels in one fell swoop. Being that we dutchies like to be the best boy of the class and be in front this also means old timers, something that virtually all other EU member states consider to be driving heritage. One of the old timer clubs had a pretty smart bloke as a member who did some digging and came to a hilarious result: the removal of those old cars cleaned the air by less than 1% since the bulk of the air pollution in Arnhem comes from the Ruhrgebiet or the very large and dirty industrial area of our German buddies to the east. Guess what; Germany does not cut it's emissions there and Arnhem was to full of itself to alter the rules so they went ahead and forced their stupidity through anyway.

So, as per the topic, what IS the cost of green washing? I find it very hard to say but it is most obviously => 0 and I feel that only looking at the monetary part of this equation is probably not doing it justice. Unfortunately it is not a hip topic to discuss :)

-P

[NavyDiver]

Geothermal energy is evolving and can be helpful.

What is interesting is several LOOK AT ME hyped up are in the game and while some of it is economic much may not be.


Heat from geothermal damaged a city in Germany in 2009!

"Green gone wrong07/12/2009July 12, 2009Residents near Dortmund were evacuated this week after the ground collapsed around a geothermal heat pump, while in another German town, almost 190 buildings have now been damaged by a geothermal project gone awry (https://www.dw.com/en/green-good-intentions-cause-chaos-in-two-german-towns/a-4473382)."


It was 2007 in "southern German village of Staufen, the news came as little surprise: their town began sinking - and then rising - as a result of geothermal drilling almost two years ago."

A little irony in that Staufen was not far from a Nuclear power plant which was shut down!

On Geothermal Iceland has long had some of the best resources in the World While 80% of Power is carbon free only about 20-30% is Geothermal.
Iceland gets most of its Electrical power from Hydro. It uses most of the Geothermal in heating "The main use of geothermal energy is for space heating, with the heat being distributed to buildings through extensive district-heating systems.[2] Nearly all Icelandic homes are heated with renewable energy, with 90% of homes being via geothermal energy.[6] The remaining homes that are not located in areas with geothermal resources are heated by renewable electricity instead.[7]"

The Governments site LINK (https://www.government.is/topics/business-and-industry/energy/)
"About 85% of the total primary energy supply in Iceland is derived from domestically produced renewable energy sources. This is the highest share of renewable energy in any national total energy budget.
In 2016 geothermal energy provided about 65% of primary energy, the share of hydropower was 20%, and the share of fossil fuels (mainly oil products for the transport sector) was 15%. In 2013 Iceland also became a producer of wind energy. The main use of geothermal energy is for space heating, with the heat being distributed to buildings through extensive district-heating systems. About 85% of all houses in Iceland are heated with geothermal energy.
In 2015, the total electricity consumption in Iceland was 18,798 GWh. Renewable energy provided almost 100% of electricity production, with about 73% coming from hydropower and 27% from geothermal power. Most of the hydropower plants are owned by Landsvirkjun (the National Power Company (https://www.landsvirkjun.com/)) which is the main supplier of electricity in Iceland. Iceland is the world's largest green energy producer per capita and largest electricity producer per capita, with approximately 55,000 kWh per person per year. In comparison, the EU average is less than 6,000 kWh.
"

Germany dreaming it can be like Iceland is facing the reality of its choice to prematurely shut down its Nuclear Power plants "German official says Germany 'should end dreams' of phasing out coal by 2030To meet its energy needs through winter, Germany, a world leader in renewable energy, has had to keep coal plants running, including several mothballed plants it brought back online earlier in October.
" Link (https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/energy/german-official-says-germany-should-end-dreams-phasing-out-coal-2030)

[scarry]

Cadogan is at it again.Greenwashing.
I can't put up the link,but this is a hint.

"New diesel EVs for the Outback!"

[NavyDiver]

https://www.youtube.com/watch'si=TQ13s4ELtxPtbL7v&v=52tzT09z81E&feature=yo utu.be

Black outs in Germany by DW Had the Lars Kissau of BASF at about minute 19 state. If the entire German chemical industry electrified it would use 100% of all the current German power generation by itself! Thats before the other BIGGER German industry joins the party!

Another quote was German energy transition is like "Jumping out of an airplane with out a parachute and cheerly explaining you will solve the problem on the way down! DW had a person some of us might think a nut who kept saying its all ok Jens Hegenberg statements had my jaw on the ground with much of his views.

Min 28 suggest Germany needs just 14000km of new High Voltage power lines!!!! Min 29 showing the issues confronting high voltage power lines! Professor Harald Schwarz statement. "IF THEY KEEP IGNORING THE PHYSICS" the probability of (Blackouts) is very very high' Min 31
That number in Germany is interesting in the Australian claims of just 10,000 km of HV lines AEMO suggested (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-17/aemo-maps-10,000km-of-high-voltage-transmission/102833156)?


I am not wishing pain on Germany. Clearly a lot of people in Germany are aware of the limitations and huge risks of not using physics and the science required. They need to make their choices. My thoughts are they will change course back to the existing Nuclear power plants they have hopefully before it hurts people.

[NavyDiver]

Sorry a rant again


"How to spin it!

"Some of the trends now seem locked in for the year: wind and solar are likely to be in a dead heat with coal,” Turner reported, “and [B]all carbon-emissions-free sources combined will account for roughly 40 percent of US electricity production.”"

Not knocking wind and solar. The part time power at times they provide can be useful or chaos depending on the cyclical/seasonal nature of their energy production.

The reliable full time " carbon-emissions-free sources" in the US is over the entire year only from one type of power which is not mentioned untill the end in the almost the greenwashed article cut and pasted. It did eventually add "wind, solar, and hydroelectric—they only generated 22%"
It did not cover the issues of the peaks and trough, Feast or famine the cyclical/seasonal nature of wind, solar and hydro.

It added Nuclear then immediately added a negative to it. Not considering Feast or famine the cyclical/seasonal nature of wind, solar and hydro or the unbelievably/impossibly high costs of new transmission lines and grid sized storage is greenwashing!"

[NavyDiver]

"You came here for truths and straight talk, so, here's a doozy."
Standing on stage at the National Press Club — being beamed live into offices and lounge rooms across the country — one of Australia's top energy bosses was preparing to say what few in the industry will acknowledge publicly.
Jeff Dimery — CEO of Alinta Energy – looked up from his notes on the lectern and delivered the promised doozy to the audience.

"Australians will have to pay more for energy in future," he said.

"We need to be honest about that."
Honesty – and transparency – are features that have arguably been missing from an often ideologically driven and contorted debate about energy policy in this country.
Clean energy 'half-truth



The Australian Energy Market Operator's own figures suggest the transition will cost around $383 billion between now and 2050. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-07/power-bills-renewable-energy-efficient-home/103192374)
When asked who pays, Dimery replied: "it all comes from consumers, whether through the bill directly or through the tax base.

When has any government cost estimate been correct[bigwhistle][bigwhistle][bigwhistle]

I suspect the real cost will be massively over that number of 383 billion as industry will leave to smarter places with cheap reliable nuclear power in Canada, USA, France and other places not chasing the FREE wind and solar conspiracy.

Not anti wind or solar! I may be full of hot air and have two solar arrays that save me a lot of money [bigwhistle]

Your power bills are going up, according to one energy boss. Here’s why - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-12/power-prices-to-rise-in-clean-energy-transition/103696450)

The Cost of Electricity by country can already be used to see where industry and jobs are going to. I know it's not here!!!

Cost of Electricity by Country 2024 (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/cost-of-electricity-by-country)

[NavyDiver]

CNNC owns part of PDN. Watching them for years. Saw Uranium insider mention "By 2030 China alone will consume more than 70 million LBS of u308 for its domestic power Nuclear fleet."

My version of his much more elegantly statement on youtube not his excellent Uranium Insider subcription service!

CNNC provides nuclear energy solutions for global energy transition
By Global TimesPublished: Apr 27, 2024 09:19 P


m

"Currently, the world economy is gradually recovering, and the energy industry is accelerating its green and low-carbon transition. Developing nuclear energy has become a broad consensus globally," said Yu Jianfeng, chairman of the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), at the 26th World Energy Congress (WEC) held in Rotterdam from April 22 to 25.

WEC, the global energy event with the longest history, is held once every three years. This year's congress marks its 100th anniversary and is hosted by the World Energy Council. CNNC attended this year's congress, showcasing China's latest technological achievements and solutions in fields such as clean energy.
CNNC provides nuclear energy solutions for global energy transition - Global Times (https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202404/1311376.shtml)




Then A very PRO COAL type put forward the following. (Trader Ferg | Substack (https://traderferg.substack.com/)) The 1.3 odd billion people in the Developed world uses 16-barrel oil equivalent of energy per year for our comfortable stranded of living. 6.82 live in the developing world using <3-barrel oil equivalent of energy per year.

6.82 billion want the same phone, transport, education, air-conditioning and other energy that you take for granted. He didn't try to say how many multiples of the intermittent solar and wind that some types suggest can meet our growing energy needs or the 10 times plus that needed for the other 6.82 billion peoples needs.

China's multiple builds and demand are great. Its my view that the other 6.82 billion are going to burn coal unless we lead the way by building multiples of the Big and Small of nuclear power for the Developed worlds need. That will significantly reduce the costs and allow the developing world a fair shot at energy equality at a price they and we can afford.

The ideological anti nuclear energy people are going to support oil, gas and coal if they do not change to a reasonable and science-based view.


[NavyDiver]

1990 Shark Bay Denham wind turbine was one of the first wind power grid connections I saw while working in the area. 2021 update "Three of the four turbines have been in use for almost 25 years. One has been in operation for 14 years. Two of the four turbines are still operational, while a third is undergoing maintenance. A fourth is significantly damaged and expected to be permanently decommissioned."

One hundred tonnes of Concrete to be left in Shark Bay. Millions may be left in Victorian farms

Cost Down, Size up or is it? Wind power size increase, page-1 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum (https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/74546987/single) Full yarn

The Golden Plains wind farm in Victoria is just months from producing its first electricity, and the developer says it has already started work on expanding the facility. Link (https://goldenplainswindfarm.com.au/) "Turbine foundations consisting of concrete gravity or rock anchor foundations with a depth of approximately 3.5 m and a diameter of 20 to 25 m"

The response from the company here did not surprise me! The company kindly responded with

[B]"At this stage, the decommissioning will be addressed as the project nears the end of term. As you likely are already aware, there are a range of options for decommissioning, all of which will be explored with landholders and relevant stakeholders in due course. Apologies I can’t be more specific as yet!"

The news that the cost of decommissioning is not part of the planning documentation is not surprising. After the Ranger Uranium mine rehabilitation debacle this being allowed by regulating Government authorities is a very poor look in my thoughts.

[NavyDiver]

This was interesting. "This comes as enormous wind turbine components – some measuring up to 90m – are unable to access new renewable energy zones in regional NSW."
340 million to fix it? Will your power be cheaper? [bigwhistle]


"Transport for NSW (TfNSW) says it’s currently working with Energy Co NSW (EnergyCo) and the Department of Planning & Environment to understand the scheduling of renewable projects and component delivery, including options to address any constraints to transport movements between the Port of Newcastle and REZ.

“Transport for NSW is reviewing options to address constraints and pinch points along the route, such as Denman bridge and the railway underpass,” said a Transport for NSW spokesperson.
“The Muswellbrook bypass is in early planning. At this stage the bypass is going through an expression of interest process for design and construction, however is subject to the Australian Government’s Review of Infrastructure Projects.”" $340m bypass needed to truck giant wind turbines to NSW sites (bigrigs.com.au) (https://bigrigs.com.au/2023/07/12/340m-bypass-needed-to-truck-giant-wind-turbines-to-nsw-sites/)

[NavyDiver]

"Section 8" of the Macintyre wind farm is the first one which has decommissioning I have found .

https://proaccionaau.blob.core.windows.net/media/41bfchld/b200456-macintyre-wind-farm-precinct-sia_v3-2-web.pdf

The document linked also states a few bits which are impossible! No impact on the farming (agricultural land )

"As such, the operational phase of the project, it is unlikely that turbines will impact the productivity of the agricultural land on which they are located (Walker & Swift 2015)."
then is says

" 8.3.3 Livelihood related to agriculture – unmitigated....Various construction impacts (such as noise, traffic, vibration, and land use) will likely affect landholders’ ability to use certain areas for agricultural purposes, including potential decreases in productivity and issues with livestock management."[biggrin][biggrin][biggrin]

Current farmers may be happy" regular income from turbine lease payments providing financial security for their businesses"

2.7 Decommissioning
The wind turbines and associated infrastructure is expected to have an operating life of 30+ years with the operation
facilitated by lease agreements between ACCIONA, CleanCo, and individual landowners.
At the end of the lease agreement period the Project could undergo either:
• refurbishment of existing infrastructure to prolong turbine life (subject to agreements and approvals);
• a program to replace turbine infrastructure on an as-needed basis (subject to agreements and approvals); or
• decommissioning and site rehabilitation.
The priority would be to keep the wind farm operating if they are financially viable and in good working order, in
accordance with current industry practices. It is important to note that no wind farm has been decommissioned in
Australian to date.

"However, should the decision be made to withdraw from one or more leases, the site would need to be
decommissioned in accordance with the conditions of approval which would be done in consultation with
landholders. Decommissioning means that the wind turbines, site office and any other ancillary infrastructure is
removed from the site, and roads and foundation pads are covered and revegetated, allowing land to be returned to its former use"

Covering 70 tones of the concrete foundation pads is what I thought will happen!! There are clearly permeant impacts on the water table and profile of all land which is not covered or discussed.

No bond or fund for decommissioning costs which makes this a direct risk for taxpayers to pay for decommissioning.:rulez::rulez::rulez:

[NavyDiver]

The waffle and money thrown at so called Green Hydrogen from Electrolysis by the likes of Fortescue Mr T Forest was in my view backing the wrong horse. It honestly stopped me being on the Fortescue share registry

"“Virtually unanimously everyone seems to conclude the economics are poor on any of the green hydrogen projects unless you get significant state underwriting for projects,” said Milford Asset Management portfolio manager Jason Kururangi, adding Fortescue’s retreat “makes a lot of sense”."

and
huge failures like "Japan’s boldest push into Australian hydrogen has been in Victoria, where a project to turn brown coal into clean hydrogen using carbon capture and storage has been allocated $2.35 billion of support by the country’s green innovation fund."

Have all cost taxpayers hundreds of millions!

The efficiency charts repeatedly show Hydrogen Pyrolysis as significantly more energy efficient with our patented catalyst of cheap and readily available Iron ore making the current failed Forrest /government and poor share holder of Fortescue with mud in their faces and a lot of capex in the bin!

Green hydrogen too ‘expensive and inefficient’ for energy transition: Alan Finkel (copyright link) (https://www.copyright%20link/companies/energy/green-hydrogen-too-expensive-and-inefficient-finkel-20240718-p5juom)

Years ago for long time investors we saw Dr Andreas Bode BASF show this clearly despite BASF not being able to achieve clearly showing hydrogen pyrolysis as energy efficient and the best IF it could be scaled up to commercial scale.


This is not a NA Na Na post for now very much poorer taxpayer, Fortescue share holders or to Mr T Forrest himself. It is a lesson in my view of not just following the hype and stick with great science and engineering excellence by great people at Hazer. The AFR article did have the author Dr Alan Finkle say turquoise hydrogen is still on track or some thing similar. I wonder if Dr Finkle is on our share registry? He clearly knows about Methane pyrolysis

[prelude]

I had some hopes for hydrogen. We could make it work but eh. More on the topic of cost vs benefit. Mr Bjorn Lomborg is quite good at these things:

https://youtu.be/HWqv6RH-3WE

[NavyDiver]

this is really happening[bighmmm][bighmmm][bighmmm]

WindRunner | Radia (https://radia.com/windrunner)


https://www.youtube.com/shorts/0ios3NhJG50

[Saitch]

I haven't delved into this (or the bloke), but even if he's only 50% correct, it would still appear to be pretty ordinary for the areas in question.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzLXWUUYBwU

[NavyDiver]

BHP has possibly the biggest U308 mine in the world. It only a 'by-product' of its Olympic Dam South oz mine :)

For years BHP has been to scared of the politcal side of U308 antis to the point it has barely mentioned uranium in any prior year report[biggrin][biggrin]

9 times its in the 2024 report and despite the u308 price being about 300% higher than the usd$20lbs it was getting a few years ago. Its not USD$80lbs or a bit more.

Green washing or fear of anti's reactions to CO2 free nuclear power was BHPs reason from hiding the fact its the 3rd or 4th largest U308 miner in the world [bigrolf]
Todays report include:

"Uranium and silver grades are currently considered to be sub-economic and are therefore not reported as part of the Mineral Resource."

I wonder what price BHP wants before it calls the $$$$ <1/2 a billion its taking from the by product economic? [biggrin]
[B]4. Olympic Dam

2022 production: 2,813 MT
The Olympic Dam polymetallic mine, owned by BHP (ASX:BHP (https://investingnews.com/stock-information/'symbol=bhp:au),NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP), produces copper, along with uranium, gold and silver. Olympic Dam, which has underground and surface operations, plus a fully integrated processing facility, has been in action since 1988, and in 2022 its output accounted for 6 percent of the world's uranium production.
Australia has the largest uranium reserves in the world, and holds about 30 percent of potential global supply. In 2022, the country was the world's fourth largest producer

[NavyDiver]

"The threat of blackouts hitting Australian homes and businesses once the next wave of coal-fired power stations retire has been downgraded significantly as official forecasts now expect enough new renewables, batteries and transmission lines will be available to help keep the lights on.
Over the past 12 months, more wind, solar and storage capacity was added to the eastern seaboard's electricity grid than in any year before, the Australian Energy Market Operator says in an update to be released on Thursday."


That in news today.

In the real news

"Ms York says the numbers are expected to get much higher in the years ahead."We are seeing significant growth and we're forecasting significant growth," she notes.
"Out to 2050, we actually forecast a doubling of electricity consumption, driven largely by decarbonisation of other sectors.""

Just one aspect other than charging my little EV for free is my focus

Next DC Data Centres - Colocation Solutions - Hybrid Cloud | NEXTDC (https://www.nextdc.com/?utm_term=nextdc&utm_campaign=&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=ppc&hsa_acc=8455776991&hsa_cam=605200532&hsa_grp=1342506198216155&hsa_ad=&hsa_src=o&hsa_tgt=kwd-83907771321211:loc-9&hsa_kw=nextdc&hsa_mt=e&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&msclkid=8b2435f09cf01a6705be5d56d64f1f42&utm_content=NEXTDC%20Brand)

The growth rate expected was in my face in "M3 Melbourne Data Centre

Located in West Footscray, 10km west of the Melbourne CBD, M3 Melbourne forms a new critical infrastructure campus and digital gateway region for Enterprise and Government.
[B]150MW

Find yours here Australia Data Centers - 262 Facilities from 151 Operators (https://www.datacentermap.com/australia/)

Hint- This is really tiny compared to Many huge ones being built in places with more reliable power[biggrin]

[NavyDiver]

He notes AEMO's official forecasts show there will be up to 1.5 gigawatts of new demand by 2035 in an "accelerated data centre scenario".
AI data centres need round-the-clock energy and could be more power-hungry than we think - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-22/australian-power-demand-finally-rising-again-amid-surging-use/105238878)


However, Mr Rennie says his firm's own research suggests demand will be far higher.
"Our research shows that that's something like 4.9 gigawatts ? so two, three times what AEMO was forecasting," he says.