NavyDiver
16th June 2024, 02:13 PM
Tale of two MAJOR cost blow outs and the results
Vogtle Nuclear Power (Vogtle 3 & 4 cost over runs 16 billion!)
Vogtle- The plant’s first two reactors, with a combined 2,430 MW of nameplate capacity (https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=Generator%20nameplate%20capacity), began operations in 1987 and 1989. The two new reactors bring Plant Vogtle’s total generating capacity to nearly 5 gigawatts (https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/home.aspx) (GW), surpassing the 4,210-MW Palo Verde plant in Arizona and making Vogtle’s four units the largest nuclear power plant in the United States.
Construction at the two new reactor (Vogtle 3 & 4) sites began in 2009 (https://www.augustachronicle.com/story/business/2009/11/22/stub-984/14385703007/). Originally expected to cost $14 billion and begin commercial operation in 2016 (Vogtle 3) and in 2017 (Vogtle 4), the project ran into significant construction delays and cost overruns. Georgia Power now estimates the total cost of the project to be more than $30 billion (https://apnews.com/article/georgia-power-co-southern-climate-and-environment-business-3b1d6c65353c6a65b1ccfddede753ab7).
“A third and a fourth reactor were approved for construction at Vogtle by the Georgia Public Service Commission in 2009, and the third reactor was supposed to start generating power in 2016. The cost of the third and fourth reactors was originally supposed to be $14 billion.”
Units 1 & 2
Total generating capacity:
~ 2,430 MW
And
Units 3 & 4Generating capacity:
~ 2,234 MW
Combined Generating capacity is 4,664MW! 30,000,000 mWh per year
Units 1–4 will generate more carbon-free electricity each year than any other energy facility currently operating in the US.
For a windfarm to produce the same amount of energy as Plant Vogtle, it would need to cover an area over 1000 square miles.
See Plant Vogtle (georgiapower.com) (https://www.georgiapower.com/company/energy-industry/generating-plants/plant-vogtle.html)
Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro project 2 billion to more than 12 Billion
“Snowy 2.0 will provide an additional 2,200 megawatts of dispatchable, on-demand generating capacity and approximately 350,000 megawatt hours of large-scale storage to the National Electricity Market. To provide context, this is enough energy storage to power three million homes over the course of a week.” It is expected to be fully operational in late 2028, delivering its first power in late 2027 — slightly earlier than the revised deadline of 2029 that was released earlier this year. From “2017, the renewable energy project had an estimated cost of $2 billion and was expected to deliver its first power in 2021.” To Snowy Hydro expansion hits reset button as costs blow out to $12 billion Chances are this is not the end of the cost blow outs!
From “Initial plans for a power station at the location were discussed in 1966.[12] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power_Station#cite_note-s2u-12) Further studies were undertaken in 1980 and 1990.[12] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power_Station#cite_note-s2u-12) The current project originated as the centrepiece of Malcolm Turnbull (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Turnbull)'s climate change policy in 2017.[13] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power_Station#cite_note-sh2pf-13) The original cost of the project was around $2 billion.[14] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power_Station#cite_note-fib-14) A feasibility study (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feasibility_study) carried out in 2017 finding the project was both technically and financially feasible.[12] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power_Station#cite_note-s2u-12) The study was released on 21 December 2017 and found the project cost would be between $3.8 and 4.5 billion”
Capacity Comparison
Capacity: Snowy 2.0 will provide an additional 2,200 megawatts of dispatchable, on-demand generating capacity and limited to approximately 350,000 megawatt-hours
((file:///C:/Users/james/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image002.png)
Capacity: Vogtle is the largest nuclear power plant in the US, with a total capacity of 4,536 megawatts across its four units
24 hour conversion
((file:///C:/Users/james/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image004.png))
Vogtle is more than double Snowy 2.0 daily capacity each and every day for 24 hours every day!
Land Footprint use
Snowy 2 The Snowy 2.0 project involves linking two existing dams, Tantangara and Talbingo, through 27 kilometers of tunnels and building a new underground power station. The construction footprint will destroy 1,680 hectares, including 1,053 hectares of native vegetation, over 95% of which is habitat for threatened fauna, threatened flora, and Threatened Ecological Communities (https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/major-projects/projects/snowy-20-main-works)1 (https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/major-projects/projects/snowy-20-main-works). Additionally, the power station itself will measure 22 meters wide, 50 meters high, and 250 meters long (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power_Station)
Add Surface area of Tantangara Reservoir: 2,117.7 hectares (5,233 acres) and
Surface area of Talbingo Reservoir: 1,935.5 hectares (4,783 acres)
Giving total projects 5,733.20 hectares (57.332 square kilometers+
Vogtle Nuclear Power
“The site is situated on approximately 3,000 acres with hundreds of acres replanted with loblolly and native longleaf pines. Plant Vogtle has management programs that enhance the habitat for species such as bluebirds, wood ducks, wild turkey and the endangered red-cockaded woodpecker”
Actual plant size is a several hectares only.
In Summary
Vogtle Nuclear Power 3&4 were poorly planned with incomplete design and changes to the design of the AP1000 Generation III+ reactor leading to the cost overrun of just over 50%! It is completed and running
Snowy 2 was poorly planned with significant engineering failures found.
Snowy 2 has a cost overrun of 500%
Initial plans for a power station at the location were discussed in 1966 Snowy 2 really started in 2017 It might start in 2028
Sunday play time :)
Vogtle Nuclear Power (Vogtle 3 & 4 cost over runs 16 billion!)
Vogtle- The plant’s first two reactors, with a combined 2,430 MW of nameplate capacity (https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=Generator%20nameplate%20capacity), began operations in 1987 and 1989. The two new reactors bring Plant Vogtle’s total generating capacity to nearly 5 gigawatts (https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/home.aspx) (GW), surpassing the 4,210-MW Palo Verde plant in Arizona and making Vogtle’s four units the largest nuclear power plant in the United States.
Construction at the two new reactor (Vogtle 3 & 4) sites began in 2009 (https://www.augustachronicle.com/story/business/2009/11/22/stub-984/14385703007/). Originally expected to cost $14 billion and begin commercial operation in 2016 (Vogtle 3) and in 2017 (Vogtle 4), the project ran into significant construction delays and cost overruns. Georgia Power now estimates the total cost of the project to be more than $30 billion (https://apnews.com/article/georgia-power-co-southern-climate-and-environment-business-3b1d6c65353c6a65b1ccfddede753ab7).
“A third and a fourth reactor were approved for construction at Vogtle by the Georgia Public Service Commission in 2009, and the third reactor was supposed to start generating power in 2016. The cost of the third and fourth reactors was originally supposed to be $14 billion.”
Units 1 & 2
Total generating capacity:
~ 2,430 MW
And
Units 3 & 4Generating capacity:
~ 2,234 MW
Combined Generating capacity is 4,664MW! 30,000,000 mWh per year
Units 1–4 will generate more carbon-free electricity each year than any other energy facility currently operating in the US.
For a windfarm to produce the same amount of energy as Plant Vogtle, it would need to cover an area over 1000 square miles.
See Plant Vogtle (georgiapower.com) (https://www.georgiapower.com/company/energy-industry/generating-plants/plant-vogtle.html)
Snowy 2.0 pumped hydro project 2 billion to more than 12 Billion
“Snowy 2.0 will provide an additional 2,200 megawatts of dispatchable, on-demand generating capacity and approximately 350,000 megawatt hours of large-scale storage to the National Electricity Market. To provide context, this is enough energy storage to power three million homes over the course of a week.” It is expected to be fully operational in late 2028, delivering its first power in late 2027 — slightly earlier than the revised deadline of 2029 that was released earlier this year. From “2017, the renewable energy project had an estimated cost of $2 billion and was expected to deliver its first power in 2021.” To Snowy Hydro expansion hits reset button as costs blow out to $12 billion Chances are this is not the end of the cost blow outs!
From “Initial plans for a power station at the location were discussed in 1966.[12] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power_Station#cite_note-s2u-12) Further studies were undertaken in 1980 and 1990.[12] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power_Station#cite_note-s2u-12) The current project originated as the centrepiece of Malcolm Turnbull (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Turnbull)'s climate change policy in 2017.[13] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power_Station#cite_note-sh2pf-13) The original cost of the project was around $2 billion.[14] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power_Station#cite_note-fib-14) A feasibility study (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feasibility_study) carried out in 2017 finding the project was both technically and financially feasible.[12] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power_Station#cite_note-s2u-12) The study was released on 21 December 2017 and found the project cost would be between $3.8 and 4.5 billion”
Capacity Comparison
Capacity: Snowy 2.0 will provide an additional 2,200 megawatts of dispatchable, on-demand generating capacity and limited to approximately 350,000 megawatt-hours
((file:///C:/Users/james/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image002.png)
Capacity: Vogtle is the largest nuclear power plant in the US, with a total capacity of 4,536 megawatts across its four units
24 hour conversion
((file:///C:/Users/james/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image004.png))
Vogtle is more than double Snowy 2.0 daily capacity each and every day for 24 hours every day!
Land Footprint use
Snowy 2 The Snowy 2.0 project involves linking two existing dams, Tantangara and Talbingo, through 27 kilometers of tunnels and building a new underground power station. The construction footprint will destroy 1,680 hectares, including 1,053 hectares of native vegetation, over 95% of which is habitat for threatened fauna, threatened flora, and Threatened Ecological Communities (https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/major-projects/projects/snowy-20-main-works)1 (https://www.planningportal.nsw.gov.au/major-projects/projects/snowy-20-main-works). Additionally, the power station itself will measure 22 meters wide, 50 meters high, and 250 meters long (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowy_2.0_Pumped_Storage_Power_Station)
Add Surface area of Tantangara Reservoir: 2,117.7 hectares (5,233 acres) and
Surface area of Talbingo Reservoir: 1,935.5 hectares (4,783 acres)
Giving total projects 5,733.20 hectares (57.332 square kilometers+
Vogtle Nuclear Power
“The site is situated on approximately 3,000 acres with hundreds of acres replanted with loblolly and native longleaf pines. Plant Vogtle has management programs that enhance the habitat for species such as bluebirds, wood ducks, wild turkey and the endangered red-cockaded woodpecker”
Actual plant size is a several hectares only.
In Summary
Vogtle Nuclear Power 3&4 were poorly planned with incomplete design and changes to the design of the AP1000 Generation III+ reactor leading to the cost overrun of just over 50%! It is completed and running
Snowy 2 was poorly planned with significant engineering failures found.
Snowy 2 has a cost overrun of 500%
Initial plans for a power station at the location were discussed in 1966 Snowy 2 really started in 2017 It might start in 2028
Sunday play time :)