Biofuels Friend or Foe

[PhilipA]

This is an article taken from the Ricardo Quarterly Review, Ricardo being the "gurus" of diesel.
It is reprinted in Autospeed , but I think it is accessable.
Browser Warning (http://www.autospeed.com/cms/A_110326/article.html)

Regards Philip A

[rick130]

Thanks Phillip.

I found this passage interesting

Second-generation biofuels will be the answer

Most of the problems will be addressed by the introduction of so-called second generation biofuels. Most of the biofuel produced today is first generation, produced in the case of ethanol by fermenting crops, or from a wide range of different types of organic oils when it comes to biodiesel. Second-generation fuels will be produced using Fischer-Tropsch gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology.
This involves specialised heat treatment of biomass to generate a ‘dirty’ producer gas. After cleaning, the producer gas is converted to a synthesis gas of carbon monoxide and hydrogen. This is then processed to form liquid fuel. It is not a new process and was developed in the 1920s, but it produces accurately formulated ‘designer’ fuel to tight standards.
“In this way it is possible to build fuels from very small molecules,” Andersson continues, “producing a high quality substitute for either gasoline or diesel.”


as GTL refining is about to come into large scale use in refining/producing conventional lubricants, too.

[Lotz-A-Landies]

Phillip

That article hasn't even taken into account the effect on world food prices. The diverting of any organic grain, particularly rape seed or corn, from food into fuel alternatives reduces the global supply of grain. This has the effect of raising the price of grain for food to the worlds poorest nations.

In the United Nations "World Food Programme" meeting this week, it was reported that member delegates were making comments that biofuel is both genecide and a crime against humanity.

Next time you fill up with your biofuel at the local pump, think about how you feel about being an accomplice to World starvation.

Something to think about isn't it? Maybe the money you donate to World Vision is being undone by the E90 you fill up with?

Diana

[PhilipA]

Hey don't look at me. I have a petrol car. Just thought the diesel guys would be interested. I have even stopped using E10 as the cost /benefit is not enough.

IMHO, the bleats of "poor" nations are just so much hot air, wanting more "rent " for their leaders from the UN. Aid that goes to most poor nations is usually diverted by the rulers to their own pockets. It's politics that makes people poor eg Zimbabwe, once the richest country in Africa, Burma, once a jewel of SE Asia. Both are now among the poorest countries in the World.
When I was posted to Riyadh in the mid 80s, I discovered that a major export from Ethiopia to Saudi was live goats. This was during the great famine in Ethiopia .
Things are often not what they seem to the uninformed in wealthy countries, as both the UN and poorer countries' leaders have vested interests in exaggerating situations.
I was confronted by a UNHCR stall at our local shopping centre the other day seeking donations. My response is "Tell the UNHCR bosses to take a 10% pay cut to their astounding tax free USD salaries" and donate that.
Regards Philip A

[Lotz-A-Landies]

Phillip

I am not suggesting anything other than whats being said in the world at the moment. It is very interesting that the poorest countries are also the ones who get millions of tons of donated grain.

Back in my uni days I did a science degree with a double major and zoology as one half. It was fascinating, the "environmentalists" in the faculty who couldn't care less about the starving millions, because they were the same ones destroying habitat and sending species into extinction. In was considered that human starvation was a good l thing and a form of population control. "If you can't feed yourselves, don't have so many children."

The very interesting thing about "famines" is the actions of those in power. Even during the "great potato famine" in Ireland, the country was a net exporter of food to the U.K.

I guess it still happens.

C Ya
Diana

P.S. The use of ethanol for use in petrol engines, has the same effect on food for grain as does biodiesel.

[PhilipA]

Diana,
The article was quite interesting in that it stated that the next stage of biofuel production will be from biomass. This will include such things as rice straw, corn stalks, wood chips etc, so should reduce competition for saleable ( or eatable) commodities. A major input will also be "wet" garbage.

I did a study once as the NSW Govt was considering setting up a biomass fuelled power plant, and was calculating the available inputs.
It turns out the rice farmers didn't want to sell their biomass as they wanted to burn it to return nutrients to the soil, although the biomass had a lot of silica in it.
Nothing is simple and there will be competition for every agricultural product, whether waste or primary that has dual uses. It should increase farmer's income, from what was in the past unvalued waste.

Make no mistake, things are going to change in regard to energy. But hey the Brazilians have just discovered the biggest oil field for the last 30 years. Who said Peak Oil? And Australia still has the Rundle Oil Shale. How long can misguided politics hold up that energy source which is enormous.
Regards Philip A

[Lotz-A-Landies]

Phillip

Hasn't some Kiwi chemical engineer come up with a method of harvesting bacterial overgrowth in sewerage farms to produce a biofuel that will replace aviation kerosene in jet engines. This was all because the sewerage farm had a problem with the overgrowth and wanted a mitigation for the "problem".

There are some incredible solutions to problems out there. It only continues to amaze me the ideas people come up with.

Diana

[Graz]

Phillip

That article hasn't even taken into account the effect on world food prices. The diverting of any organic grain, particularly rape seed or corn, from food into fuel alternatives reduces the global supply of grain. This has the effect of raising the price of grain for food to the worlds poorest nations.

In the United Nations "World Food Programme" meeting this week, it was reported that member delegates were making comments that biofuel is both genecide and a crime against humanity.

Next time you fill up with your biofuel at the local pump, think about how you feel about being an accomplice to World starvation.



Something to think about isn't it? Maybe the money you donate to World Vision is being undone by the E90 you fill up with?

Diana

A different slant to this subject from a farmer I know. His views have merit

Hi Grazzo,
Interesting, I have seen similar elswhere.
I can't post here so perhaps you could ask them why its immoral for farmers to be profitable? It seems that its okay for all the other sectors of the economy to be profitable but when farmers look like they will actually be able to make a reasonable business case everyone screams.
I have made a loss for the last five years and its only cause we sold the block that we have survived. If all goes well this year we may even get ahead a bit. People have to realise that they have been getting food for below the real cost of production for years and farmers have just kept going by running down machinery, not employing labour when they really need to (working insane hours as a result) and borrowing more. The future means there will just be less income spent on the latest whitegoods/wide screen/blueberry/dineing out and more spent on the basics of life food/energy/shelter.
End of rant. Feel free to cut and paste to that forum.
Cheers Gonz

[Lotz-A-Landies]

...I did a study once as the NSW Govt was considering setting up a biomass fuelled power plant, and was calculating the available inputs.
It turns out the rice farmers didn't want to sell their biomass as they wanted to burn it to return nutrients to the soil, although the biomass had a lot of silica in it.
Nothing is simple and there will be competition for every agricultural product, whether waste or primary that has dual uses. It should increase farmer's income, from what was in the past unvalued waste.

Regards Philip A
Phillip

Just a question, if the stubble from the rice producers was pupled and used as biomass for fueling the power plant. Would there be any "waste" after the biomass was used up?
What would it contain in terms of nutrients and could they be ploughed back into the fields as a fertiliser?
Has anyone calculated the cost/benefit (including transport and costs of tillage) of a system like that?
A different slant to this subject from a farmer I know. His views have merit

Hi Grazzo,
Interesting, I have seen similar elswhere.
I can't post here so perhaps you could ask them why its immoral for farmers to be profitable? It seems that its okay for all the other sectors of the economy to be profitable but when farmers look like they will actually be able to make a reasonable business case everyone screams. ...
... Cheers Gonz
Gonz

Absoutely the farmers get the wrong end of the stick most of the time. Who were the ones who lost out on the millions of dollars the AWB paid as bribes, not the spivs who did the dirty deeds, they still got their fat paycheques, no it was the farmers who lost out on their returns. :(

Same with global fuel prices, the oil is still coming out of the ground at the same price, it is just the Wall Street Futures Market spivs who are gambling up the prices of fuel that the rest of us have to pay. :angrylock:

Damn all them spivs! :nazilock:


C Ya
Diana

[abaddonxi]

Would've like a bit more content in that article.

Cheers
Simon

[clean32]

Reading the above posts seems to show that there are some misconceptions about bio fuels.
The debate / debates hinge one more than one point. By nature people tend to focus on the point that is most important to them.

The points are.

COST $$$, at the pump, will it be cheaper for me !!!
Economic, Australia, cutting imports, balance of trade etc AND employment, farmers income, new / more jobs etc.
Environmental, clean environments
Global worming ( as it is different to the environment argument)

The only common advantage of bio fuels ( regardless of type " definition") is that it creates a closed C02 loop. From vegetation to car and back to vegetation. This introduces no more C02 into the environment.
NB the total global C02 levels are up buy 30% by volume, and oxygen correspondingly down since the 1950s

[PhilipA]

Would there be any "waste" after the biomass was used up?
What would it contain in terms of nutrients and could they be ploughed back into the fields as a fertiliser?
Has anyone calculated the cost/benefit (including transport and costs of tillage) of a system like that?I have no real idea of the answers and they have been lost in the mists of time.
I can just recall that the technical people in DPI told me that rice straw was a real problem for burning in a power plant as it had a high silica content.
The study was to be commissioned by SEDA ( Sustainable Energy Development Authority) of NSW. I think it sunk without trace.
My thoughts at the time was that it would never be viable /competitive due to the cost of collection, if the plant was near a major market, or the cost of transmission if the plant was near the source.
Its a similar problem as with farm based forestry. The cost of collection is too high in NSW to be competitivewith WA or Vic plantations.
Regards Philip A

[Lotz-A-Landies]

I have no real idea of the answers and they have been lost in the mists of time.
I can just recall that the technical people in DPI told me that rice straw was a real problem for burning in a power plant as it had a high silica content.
The study was to be commissioned by SEDA ( Sustainable Energy Development Authority) of NSW. I think it sunk without trace.
My thoughts at the time was that it would never be viable /competitive due to the cost of collection, if the plant was near a major market, or the cost of transmission if the plant was near the source.
Regards Philip A
That is what I thought, the only benefit I reason would be if the farmers had a biomass digester and used the methane etc to power a local generator (possibly returning excess to the grid) very similar to the methane powered generators that are used in some sewerage plants.

I guess the fuel costs of harvesting the stubble and transporting to the digester would only yield as much as energy as was used in the harvest. The capital cost may never be recovered, although the CO2 created in the burn off would be saved.

Cheers
Diana

[one_iota]

To add fuel to the fire ;)

Hardy Plant May Ease Biofuels' Burden on Food Costs (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/04/080421-biofuels.html)

[PhilipA]

While in DPI I was asked about Jatropha and did a small study a couple of years ago.
AFAIK there was none in Australia 2 years ago. assuming there is still none, it will take at least 4-5 years to breed it and commercialise it and by that time according to Ricardo new biomass refining will be available.

I have been involved in testing new crops (sesame)and there are many hurdles to overcame before something like this can be commercialised.
1 Will it grow here? EG Indian ( non dope) hemp has never shown good yields
2 Is it competitive with other crops
3 Is it destined to be another Lantana
4 What herbicides do not kill it
5 Which bugs like it
6 can it be mechanically harvested. In India you can just get a couple of thousand labourers to go out and cut it.
7 Its not tame. One tree could be 1 metre tall and another 10 metres. One could have 40% oil and another 10%.


I think by then there will be other biomass answers.
One that comes to mind is

Non human consumption high yield canola, bred by genetic engineering.

Crops like these are tame, the farmers know how to harvest them, there are herbicides and insecticides available and approved, (and it costs about 500K to have one chemical approved for use on a crop.)
There are also plenty of other high yield hardy plants eg saltbush that already grow here.
I consider Jatropha in the same category as Neem, and Noni Noni.
Regards Philip A

[Lotz-A-Landies]

To add fuel to the fire ;)

Hardy Plant May Ease Biofuels' Burden on Food Costs (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/04/080421-biofuels.html)
Not that we need more fires for Global warming's sake.

With the price of diesel lately, maybe we can get the Afghan opium poppy growers to switch to biofuel production? That would solve 2 problems and not take any food producing land out of production.

Diana

[one_iota]

A few things that I think need to be considered in the debate:

1. India's and China's populations constitute 40% of the worlds population and as those countries develop, as they are, at a much greater rate of growth than western economies their demand for both food and fuel for transport will place great strains on the conventional food and fuel sources. We in the "west" need to change our perspective and remove ourselves from the centre of the argument placing ourselves in their shoes. It is not only about how much I pay at the local service station.

2. The production of fuel crops at the expense of food crops in Africa to fuel my Land Rover in Australia is morally dubious. However if in Australia the cost of food increases and I can afford it and have locally grown biofuel then maybe that is supportable and sustainable.

3. What is an appropriate source of fuel? Crude Oil, GE Canola, Algae, Palm Oil, Coconut Oil? The answer is probably whatever is appropriate technologically and ecologically for the location. PhilipA's point is well made: what will work in India will not necessarily be appropriate in Australia.

[Pedro_The_Swift]

I have heard that American farmers are paid NOT to produce crops as there is an oversupply.

perhaps this is where the extra production may come from,,

[Pedro_The_Swift]

Biofuel backlash prompts Brussels back-pedal

Corn-based fuel becoming a hot potato

By Lewis Page (http://forms.theregister.co.uk/mail_author/'story_url=/2008/04/21/eu_biofuel_quota_coolness/) → More by this author (http://search.theregister.co.uk/?author=Lewis%20Page)
Published Monday 21st April 2008 10:53 GMT

The ongoing backlash against biofuels continues to gather pace, with news out of Brussels that the European Union may postpone or even drop plans for biosource quotas in motor fuel.
The Guardian reported this weekend that officials in the European Commission are getting ready to backtrack on plans for ten per cent biofuel to be required in all European petrol and diesel by 2020.
"This is all very sensitive and fast-moving," an unnamed Commission bureaucrat told the Graun.
"There is now a lot of new evidence on biofuels and the commission has become a prisoner of this process."
Another official said that the ten per cent target "is now secondary", and that anyway it probably could no longer be met due to tough draft standards on sustainable production. This would seem to imply that most existing biofuel production wouldn't qualify under the draft Brussels rules.
At present most vehicle biofuel uses ethanol, ethyl alcohol, either as a percentage of normal fuel or exclusively in suitably adapted cars. So-called "flex-fuel" vehicles can run on any mixture of ethanol and regular fossil fuel.
But ethanol must currently be produced from food crops such as corn or sugar cane. The drive to ethanol - pushed, perhaps, as much by surging oil prices as environmental concerns - is seen by many as being behind recent food price rises and consequent hunger in some regions.
On top of that, many experts believe that ethanol biofuel doesn't reduce overall CO2 emissions as much as its proponents claim. In theory, the exhaust-pipe carbon is compensated for by the CO2 absorbed during photosynthesis in the growing plants used to make the fuel. But critics point out that intensively farmed crops draw carbon from artificial fertilisers, and that the process of turning the harvest into alcohol is also highly carbon-intensive.
Thus the actual reduction in CO2 emissions which can be claimed as a result of burning biofuel is the subject of much debate - the more so as this is critically important in the planned European carbon markets. The Graun reports (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/apr/19/biofuels.food) that Brussels mandarins are hoping to gain acceptance for a figure of 35 per cent carbon reduction by burning agreed types of ethanol as compared to ordinary fossil fuels. In other words, if the whole transport industry could switch to using nothing but ethanol - no fossil fuel at all - the European Commission believe that overall transport-sector emissions would be down by about one-third.
There are alternative types of biofuel, such as methyl alcohol (wood alcohol) which can be made from non-food biomass or other sources. Lacking the support of powerful farm lobbies, however, methanol, biodiesel and the like have failed to gain widespread backing. Even if they did, the same criticisms of low or even notional carbon reduction, limited biomass availability etc might be levelled at them - though some (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/11/25/zubrin_energy_terror_alcohol_plan/) would still pursue such plans on energy security grounds.
UK motor fuel is required to be 2.5 per cent biofuel already, and the plan is for this to rise to five per cent in two years. However, the British government may not press ahead - there is a Whitehall review underway. ®






World Bank chief: Ethanol cars run on human misery

Fill up with E85, starve a child

By Lewis Page (http://forms.theregister.co.uk/mail_author/'story_url=/2008/04/11/world_bank_biofuel_kicking/) → More by this author (http://search.theregister.co.uk/?author=Lewis%20Page)
Published Friday 11th April 2008 15:18 GMT

The head of the World Bank has said that soaring food prices are causing hardship and starvation for poor people worldwide, and implied that at least some of the blame lay with Western governments' efforts to encourage biofuel use.
"While many worry about filling their gas tanks, many others around the world are struggling to fill their stomachs," said Bank supremo Robert Zoellick, quoted in today's Guardian.
"This is not just about meals forgone today, or about increasing social unrest, it is about lost learning potential for children and adults in the future, stunted intellectual and physical growth," he added.
"We estimate that the effect of this food crisis on poverty reduction worldwide is in the order of seven lost years."
Zoellick appeared primarily to be calling for greater agricultural and food aid from the rich nations to the developing world. However, he made it clear that he considered the push toward biofuels part of the problem, saying that this tended to push up food prices.
A majority of transport biofuel schemes involve the use of varying proportions of ethyl alcohol - ethanol - in adapted internal-combustion petrol engines. Ethanol must be made from food crops at present, though its advocates hope to see it produced from non-food biomass or other sources in future. Zoellick would have been referring to ethanol biofuels.
Less mainstream types of biofuel include methanol - wood alcohol - which can be made from inedible plant matter, and biodiesel. These technologies are less controversial than food ethanol, but are usually seen as being harder to implement and have gained comparatively little traction.
Government measures thus far have tended to focus on ethanol techniques, in large part due to pressure from Western farmers seeking lucrative markets for their crops. The UK, for instance, intends to require first 5 and then 10 per cent ethanol content in motor fuel in coming years - a plan which has already drawn widespread criticism.
The Guardian also quoted (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/apr/11/worldbank.fooddrinks1) Oxfam's Liz Stuart, who said:
"Europe and the US must stop adding fuel to fire by increasing crop production for biofuels. These have dubious environment benefits, and by driving up prices, are crippling the lives of the poor." ®






US scientists puncture the ethanol biofuel bubble

Crop switch likely to increase emissions

By George Smith, Dick Destiny (http://forms.theregister.co.uk/mail_author/'story_url=/2008/02/13/science_biofuel_reports/) → More by this author (http://search.theregister.co.uk/?author=George%20Smith)
Published Wednesday 13th February 2008 15:31 GMT

Good science news (or bad, depending on your point of view) has arrived with two reports on the carbon footprint of biofuels, in the paper edition of Science magazine. They deal serious damage to the belief - which up to now has been driving the biofuel bubble - that stepped-up ethanol production in the US is an answer to global warming.
Writing in "Use of US croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions for Land Use or Change," Timothy Searchinger and many others state: "To produce more biofuels, farmers can directly plow up more forest or grassland, which releases to the atmosphere much of the carbon previously stored in plants and soils through decomposition or fire. The loss of maturing forests and grasslands also forgoes ongoing carbon sequestration as plants grow each year ..." (A companion piece, "Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt" by scientists at the University of Minnesota, covers similar territory.)
The scientists step on switch grass, too, a weed peddled by those promoting the still largely theoretical panacea of ethanol production direct from cellulose. "Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on US corn lands increase emissions by 50 per cent," write the authors in the lead paragraph.
The news tosses a good deal of water on the biofuel fire. Unfortunately, the reports are subscription only and while there were a number of pirated copies flowing in email due to the electronic publication of the news last week, the perfectly awful figures still deserve some reporting. For example, the New York Times story on the reports ignored ugly figures like the percentage losses in feed crops contrasted with increases in emission, perhaps figuring correctly that the average reader is too stupid and easily bored to tolerate them. Since the Times has been a cheerleader for miracle alternative energy solutions, the reports were surely hard for it to swallow. One could imagine the nervous gulping in the paper's second sentence. It noted that ethanol mania, therein called the "benefits of biofuels," had come under attack and that the articles in the magazine would "add to the controversy."
This is what happens now in the US when fairly clear cut, inconvenient and unpopular peer-reviewed science shows up in the public arena. As far as mainstream journalism is concerned, it generates a "controversy." In the current political context, controversy is good because it can be used as cover, deployed by the various interests who stand to make a fortune from a boom predicated on previous received wisdoms now contradicted by more rigorous thought.
The authors conclude in Science that as the US ramps up biofuel production, other crops will decline - "corn by 62 per cent, wheat by 31 per cent, soybeans by 28 per cent, pork by 18 per cent and chicken by 12 per cent." The general reply to this is to claim that boosted crop yields on remaining land and greater efficiencies will make this up. Not so fast, reply the authors, stating their figures are already based on the assumption of growth in yields but that "positive and negative effects, "the latter from factors like "reduced crop rotations and greater reliance on marginal land," cause a canceling out.
Declines in production of feed grains due to biofuel diversion cause significant cuts in food exports. Brazil, China and India then cultivate more arable land for food crops. This is a double whammy, not only releasing carbon dioxide locked up in plants and soil in the US but also around the world. It's a strong and compelling analysis of the current US rush to ethanol. Indirectly, it's quite an indictment of it, too.
The choices presented by the study are harsh ones. The pooch is so screwed by current greenhouse gas figures that even with the reining in of biofuel production so that only a much smaller slice of feed grain - 10 per cent - is diverted, cuts in emission then come through with human cost. They adding a little starvation to the balance sheet.
"Counteracting increases in biofuels with controls or disincentives against land conversion would face not only great practical challenges, but also have harsh social consequences," the authors write. The smaller reduction in land use for ethanol as opposed to feed crops would still result in a diminution of production of world milk and meat, the effect of which would reduce carbon dioxide release but at the same time depress poorer diets in developing nations. "In that event, more greenhouse benefits would stem in reality from reduced food consumption," it states. The authors write with a bit of delicacy that this effect is "probably not a desirable one."
The report puts those pushing the fad of biofuel into a real corner. There are no miracles forthcoming and all of the talk about transformative technology seems to be just that. The authors stress that their results mean that only ethanol production from waste material stands not to add to greenhouse gas production and then only if it is conducted under a strict regimen. This means the possible use of cellulose, but only in a system in which good cropland isn't turned over to cultivate the biofuel weed, switch grass.
None of this can be good news to biofuel producers although in the short term it would seem unlikely to seriously impede their current plans. There is too much greed and politicized government subsidy plowed into US biofuels to expect rationality to prevail and brakes to be applied, even gently, immediately.
The final conclusion in Science has the ring of common sense: "[When] farmers use today's good cropland to produce food, they help to avert greenhouse gases from land use change."
Additional note: In January, just one day after George W. Bush's state-of-the-union address, the Department of Energy cancelled its support for a "clean coal" electricity generating facility in Mattoon, Illinois. It effectively killed the project. Called FutureGen and employing Fischer-Tropsch processing (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/01/28/us_clean_coal/), the plant was viewed as a key prototype in the country's energy security future. However, the sticking point on it was its production of carbon dioxide. No one has been able to practically address what to do with it other than offer up the airy fancy that the greenhouse gas be stuffed into the ground, the functional equivalent of an instantaneous miraculous solution.
Taken together with Science's dual reports on biofuel land use causing increase in global carbon dioxide emission, the beginning of 2008 has been a shock to the American belief that silver bullets for energy independence and curbing climate change are nigh. ®

[JDNSW]

I rather think that attributing recent increases in food prices to increased biofuel production is rather simplistic - given that Australia (one of the world's major food exporters) has been in the grip of drought for nearly eight years, it is likely that this plus the increasing imports of food to China and India to feed their increasing population and rising living standards are the main factors behind the increased prices (which, incidentally, are saving quite a few Australian farmers from ruin).

The other factor is that for forty years farm production in Europe, the US, and Japan has been heavily subsidised, depressing world food prices by making production exceed demand. With increasing world population and rising living standards as noted above, coupled with drought in Australia, and very minor effects from biofuel production, demand now looks like rising above supply, at least until the drought eases.

In the Australian situation at least, given decent prices (taking into account increased fuel and fertiliser and chemical costs - all of which depend on oil price!), and reasonable seasons, production will increase, as it will in several other countries. It may also make it possible to grow food economically in some of the major importing countries where local farmers have been put out of business by cheap imports.

John

[JDNSW]

Further to my last post, there was a relevant news item this morning -

Australia this year will have the smallest rice crop for eighty years, a direct result of the drought. This is one of the factors that has reduced the world rice stockpile by 50% in the last ten years, but biofuel production is last on the list of causes. Apart from lowered production the main cause given is the increasing urbanisation in India and China, which are the two largest consumers and producers of rice.

As an indicator of other sorts of causes, consider Burma. Fifty years ago it was the world's largest rice exporter. About ten years ago it became a rice importer. Nothing to do with biofuels, just fifty years of economic mismanagement. Very similar situation in Zimbabwe, except that it has happened a lot more quickly there, and there are other places I am sure you can think of with similar problems, albeit perhaps not as dramatic.

John

[p38arover]

Global worming ( as it is different to the environment argument)

Dunno if global worming is good. Can you imagine these worms getting loose around the world? :D

Giant worms destroying ancient rice terraces - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/03/03/worm03.xml)

[Dingmark Jim]

I spent 3 years working in the Middle East (Qatar) negotiating the contract on Shell's Gas-to-Liquids facility, which will be the world's largest. The diesel fuel it will produce is pretty amazing stiff. It's clear, has no smell (or sulphur contaminants) and can run 100% in most existing engines with no problems. That said, I understand that Shell is planning to use it as a blendstock in existing low-sulphur diesel to make "ultra-low sulphur diesel". The ultra-low fuel will be able to have catalytic converters on the exhaust and will make diesel engines cleaner than petrol. GTL diesel also doesn't stain clothes with drips when refuelling, which might cause wives to actually do some of the refuelling. The plant will consume a huge amount of natural gas and just as importantly is expected to cost $12 billion:eek: to produce about 120,000 bbls of liquids (mostly diesel and jet fuel feedstock). If you take the cost and production rate it won't result in really cheap fuel. As previously mentioned, nothing left to solve is simple.

[clean32]

Pedro_The_Swift sorry mate, most of what you have quoted is just propaganda.
JDNSW post is much closer to the truth.

To add to JDNSW's post, there are other examples, like the Russian federation. Population 18 million, main import or largest import in dollar terms is cooking oil. Russia or what is the RF now can not feed itsself even today. This was also the same situation in Vietnam a decade or so ago, today Vietnam is the largest exporter of rice.

To try and clarify some of the preceding arguments, some of the areas can be broken down
bio fuel, = bio petrol or bio diesel? They should not be confused

bio petrol in the US and in Australia is made from basically a food crop, thus creating competition for growing space, thus prices rise, farmers make more money etc. Now the US has been subsidising farmers for decades( on some crops) by buying up surplus product and dumping it usually in Africa and other poorer nations, a valuable tool in USA policy.

Bio diesel is a different story. With the Palm plantations of the late 1800 to 1950s being closed (unprofitable competition with fossil fuels) the coconut industry going bust ( high cholesterol) the canola industry ( poisoning the farm workers, Canada being a mechanical farming). Revitalising these industries was and has been a little gold mine for some countries. And should be pushed further in this country. as none of these crops readily compete for ground/ growing space with the bio petrol/food crops.

History full circle
Just as early in the 1900s with oil production and products replacing grown products in industry, and as technology evolved. One of the largest market economic battles was fought out in the US. The adoption of fuel additives ( to stop detonation ) in short, would the powerful growers lobby win with the legal requirement to add ethanol to petrol, or would the new but equally powerful oil industry win with there additive " LEAD" . Well every one over the age of 25 knows that the oil industry own that battel, but the war still goes on. Basically there is no way that the oil industry wants a non petroleum product being added to there products. Great that it has stimulated research and improvements in there products, and the implementation of old technologies witch they were just to lazy to implement before (hydrogen added to fuels).

Maths 1 0 1

There is a finite amount of carbon on this planet, the problem is where is this carbon, in the air as C02 or locked in some other molecule IE oil. Basically what we have been doing is taking the locked up Carbon, converting in to Carbon dioxide ( ver industry cars etc) and letting it lose in the atmosphere. So much so that the earths atmosphere has changed from the early 1900 to now. we have losses 14% of our total oxygen content in air.
Now for every 1 carbon we unlock we also lose 2 oxygen.


The arguments against bio fuels are in part correct but are usually incomplete, motivated by the oil industry to protect there business. Like wise the arguments for bio fuels are incomplete, motivated by the big farming / cropping industries
So much so has the arguments for and against been distorted, (massive amounts of cash involved) they are useless in debating.
The only argument left is the oxygen levels and carbon levels in the air we breathe. The experiments of stuffing C02 into the ground are a wast of time, all this is doing is locking up both the carbon ( good) and oxygen( Bad)





I rather think that attributing recent increases in food prices to increased biofuel production is rather simplistic - given that Australia (one of the world's major food exporters) has been in the grip of drought for nearly eight years, it is likely that this plus the increasing imports of food to China and India to feed their increasing population and rising living standards are the main factors behind the increased prices (which, incidentally, are saving quite a few Australian farmers from ruin).

The other factor is that for forty years farm production in Europe, the US, and Japan has been heavily subsidised, depressing world food prices by making production exceed demand. With increasing world population and rising living standards as noted above, coupled with drought in Australia, and very minor effects from biofuel production, demand now looks like rising above supply, at least until the drought eases.

In the Australian situation at least, given decent prices (taking into account increased fuel and fertiliser and chemical costs - all of which depend on oil price!), and reasonable seasons, production will increase, as it will in several other countries. It may also make it possible to grow food economically in some of the major importing countries where local farmers have been put out of business by cheap imports.

John

[JDNSW]

Clean 32, I can't argue with the general trend of your post, although I will point out that the burning of fossil fuels, while it appears to have made a measurable difference in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has not made a measurable difference in the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere, let alone the 14% quoted. Because of this the geosequestration of carbon dioxide cannot be questioned on the basis of reduction of oxygen in the air, although there may be other reasons for questioning it. It needs to be remembered that the vast majority of the carbon stored in the earth's crust following removal from the atmosphere is in fact stored in combination with oxygen as carbonates, mainly limestone, rather than as fossil fuels.

On this morning's news is something relevant to this thread - the cyclone in Burma is expected to have destroyed two thirds of Burma's rice crop - and the area devastated is the worlds largest rice growing area.

John

[clean32]

Thanks for your post, I can see that you are well read on the topic. I would counter with the following, and trying to keep it simple
Yes carbon is locked / stored in the earth with in many different and non petroleum molecules, like as you stated lime stone. But petroleum is the only carbon lock product ( mainly ) that industry ( and consumers) unlock that carbon content, stick to it a couple of oxygen and let if free into the atmosphere.
to state that the burning of fossil fuels hasn’t lead to a reduction in oxygen is in simple terms impossible, as it requires oxygen to be present when a fuel burns.
Oxygen is also locked up in the earth, the most common being water, H20. Yet there has been no noticeable increase in hydrogen in the atmosphere.
Back to the original argument, bio diesel is in my opinion the best option for Australia, and the world, will this reduce the C02 levels and increase the oxygen levels? Probably not. But what it will do is arrest the increase by producing a closed loop for both our fuels C02 and out fuels oxygen.




Clean 32, I can't argue with the general trend of your post, although I will point out that the burning of fossil fuels, while it appears to have made a measurable difference in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has not made a measurable difference in the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere, let alone the 14% quoted. Because of this the geosequestration of carbon dioxide cannot be questioned on the basis of reduction of oxygen in the air, although there may be other reasons for questioning it. It needs to be remembered that the vast majority of the carbon stored in the earth's crust following removal from the atmosphere is in fact stored in combination with oxygen as carbonates, mainly limestone, rather than as fossil fuels.

On this morning's news is something relevant to this thread - the cyclone in Burma is expected to have destroyed two thirds of Burma's rice crop - and the area devastated is the worlds largest rice growing area.

John

[JDNSW]

Thanks for your post, I can see that you are well read on the topic. I would counter with the following, and trying to keep it simple
...........
to state that the burning of fossil fuels hasn’t lead to a reduction in oxygen is in simple terms impossible, as it requires oxygen to be present when a fuel burns.............

It is impossible only if you consider the oxygen in the atmosphere to be a fixed amount, which it is not. There is a whole series of dynamic, interacting processes going on all the time that affect the proportion of oxygen in the atmosphere. Combustion of fossil fuels is one of them, but this is relatively minor (from the oxygen point of view) compared to the processes of life - photsynthesis increasing the amount, respiration decreasing it, and chemical processes from weathering of rocks to disassociation of H20 in the stratoshere (the hydrogen is mostly lost into space rather than accumulating in the atmosphere).

But this is not what I meant. Oxygen makes up 20.946% of the atmosphere, and carbon dioxide makes up 0.0383% of the atmosphere. This has increased by 0.0104% since 1750 (if the data is correct). Even if all of this amount had not been compensated at all, it would only reduce the oxygen content of the atmosphere by the same amount, that is, from 20.946% to 20.932%, which is within the place to place and day to day variation of oxygen content - vastly less than the 14% you quoted, and in fact, not measurable because of the variations. Loss of atmospheric oxygen is clearly NOT a problem - even if CO2 equivalent to 100 times the total to date was sequestrated underground, we would see a reduction in oxygen content of less than that you get going from Sydney to here (in terms of the partial pressure of oxygen available for breathing).

John