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is it the fuel system?
dunno if someone has mentioned this before, but is the fuel system OK?
That is, the fuel line has no small holes in it that allow the fuel to run back into the tank - worse on cold mornings as the air in the fuel tank contracts more when it is colder, sucking it back.
i live in Bathurst (where it can snow in winter) and find it unlikey that it is the battery as you described it. Sounds like a fuel supply problem to me.
Matt
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My old disco did the same thing. Started perfectly in warmer weather but no start on frosty mornings. Turned out the injector pump timing was to retarded. advanced pump timing, touch the key and it would fire up.
The problem is the sprocket adapter on the front of injector pump has not got a key way, it's just tapered. either the adapter has not been fitted in correct position or it has moved.