im going with structural failing due to airframe overloading due to conditions caused by the bushfires.
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One previous C-130 firefighting crash (not Australia) was the result of structural failure, and there has been at least one other firefighting crash in Australia that resulted from structural failure. But I am guessing that other circumstances are more common, such as "controlled flight into terrain" ( loss of situational awareness or sudden low visibility at low level) or "sudden descent due to air movements".
If it was structural failure this should soon be identified, but the reason for this is likely to take longer.
Small In 2014 a c130 tanker lost its wings in the USA-
just type YouTube c130 tanker loses wings.
These are very old planes.
regards PhilipA
its the first thing I thought of when hearing the firefighters description of crashing in flames.
i guess we will have to wait for the black box.
The retardant/water dump was many km to the west of the crash site - I guess some structural damage could have occurred then that did not down the aircraft - initial reports indicate that the aircraft was heading east after the dump at 400kph and near Peak View and only a few hundred metres above the ground started loosing speed to about 250kph and making a tight left hand turn and went in.
The last act sounds like a stall but who knows what brought it on.
And no radio contact from a professional crew... suggests whatever happened was pretty instant
One can't help but wonder that in that country they suddenly found themselves enclosed by terrain at a very low altitude, pulled the power off & did a tight turn at low airspeed to get out of a re-entrant, stalled & crashed?
Obviously my thoughts only.
At least Juan can still give measured commentary.....
https://youtu.be/GSPRNGV9sWI
Again just surmising - based on comments in that vid - maybe the retardant load had not been dropped as the news reported as the guy in the vid indicates the tanker would normally do a dry run first to check the scene out then come back and do the drop.
The track of the aircraft shows it came down from Richmond direct to the fire then turns to the east - maybe the sharp left turn and reducing speed and altitude was the turn to start the run to where the load was to be dropped and something happened in the turn - the slower speed of 250kph reported in the news is close to the 120knots the guy in the vid mentions that the aircraft may do a run at.
He also mentions it may not have a black box and only a voice recorder - seems odd for that size aircraft but seem normal for the class the C130 operated in in the US.
But again all guesswork.
Garry
Flightradar24 have released this flight path data
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...1d240aadcb.png
N130CG - Lockheed EC-130Q Hercules - Flightradar24
Like all these incidents, I guess we'll all have to wait on some positive data as to what actually happened from better brains than my limited one.
Tragic nevertheless.