The BOM cannot get tomorrow's weather right

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhilipA

When I looked at the MetEye , Avoca Beach again I noted that it said that data was collected from Norah Head which is over 20Km away. The weather radar rainfall data page showed Norah Head as having 15-20MM.

MetEye has a disclaimer that it is an experimental service. You're a bit tough basing your criticisms on a service that they declare to be experimental (and is therefore likely to include errors as they work out the bugs).

Forecasting is an inexact science. I suggest you pay a visit to your local met bureau and see how it's done. I found that very interesting, and they were quite candid about when they can get good results, and what weather systems still give them trouble. Here in Adelaide, they have problems with forecasting the impact of troughs which sometimes produce large variations in precipitation. As a pilot, I rely on their forecasts whenever I take to the air and I find they are pretty accurate most of the time.

Coop

Bureau of Meteorology braces for flak after it failed to warn of 'super cell' storm and flash floods.

Bureau of Meteorology prepares to cop flak for failing to forecast Geelong storm

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick_Marsh

You are both wrong.
It is merely your opinion until you put up links to where you got that information from so it can be evaluated.

Mick, just because they have not given links to support their claims does not mean that they are wrong, although one has to be as they are differing.

It is a bit like me saying that a lot of LR's leak oil. Just because I don't support my opinion, in this case I am still right.

As for the BOM, I generally reckon they do a bloody good job.

Quote:

MetEye has a disclaimer that it is an experimental service. You're a bit
tough basing your criticisms on a service that they declare to be experimental
(and is therefore likely to include errors as they work out the bugs).

I only quoted Meteye because another poster criticised me for not knowing the percentage chance of rain etc, as I was going from the 7 day forecast page which doesn't have that data , and AFAIR challenged me to look at the whole site which I did.
But the 7 Day Forecast page was also wrong but not wrong in as much detail as Meteye.LOL and of course Meteye was also inconsistent with the radar map of rainfall from 9AM which is an observation , not a forecast.

Regards Philip A

In my lines of work (outdoor, ocean or freshwater) I use Windguru AND Willyweather for the location and maybe 2 - 7 days advance (which continually changes as you would expect), and cross reference with something like this from BOM:

Water and the Land: Forecast Rainfall

Thunderstorms are always an issue with even 24 hr forecasting.

Places 10km either side of my farm yesterday got 50+ mm and I got 12 in the same timeframe.

cheers, DL

Quote:

Originally Posted by d2dave

Mick, just because they have not given links to support their claims does not mean that they are wrong, although one has to be as they are differing.

It is a bit like me saying that a lot of LR's leak oil. Just because I don't support my opinion, in this case I am still right.

As for the BOM, I generally reckon they do a bloody good job.

Fact: something that is true.

I have five Landrovers. They do not leak oil. For you to say that it is fact that a lot of Landrovers leak oil, do you blame me for wanting you to back that up with evidence or some sort of credible report that has evaluated the evidence. In my world, Landrovers don't leak fluids but there is always a large fresh patch of some sort of fluid sitting under the Mercedes.

My mate John the other day said to me "Landrovers are the most unreliable vehicle around". I've had a bloody good run with mine. Also, knowing his ever reliable Territory was rendered unmovable when it hemorrhaged it's transmission fluid all over the unsealed road, I decided to challenge his statement and ask for the evidence. As it turns out, it was a newspaper article that had no evidence and was based little in fact. They were discussing electronics which my Landrovers have none.

What am I trying to say. People generally misrepresent their opinions as fact. There are a number of threads on this forum alone that are nothing other than misrepresented opinions. Is it any wonder I challenge people to back up their "facts" with some sort of evidence or corroboration. If we didn't do that, we'd probably still be thinking the
earth was flat.

Oh, for the record, I know people who work at the BOM. Weather prediction is a difficult science. The shorter the outlook, the more accurate they can get it. They do a great job.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 303gunner

I will print this out. I get in trouble in the morning if a "Shower" lasts longer than a "Coffee".

:D:D:D the young people in my family tend to have morning "rains" rather than showers.:Rolling::Rolling::Rolling:

Far be it for me to let facts get in the way of a good story, but perhaps a little education could help here, Bob

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What is MetEye? MetEye is able to show maps of weather observations and the official forecasts produced by the Bureau of Meteorology. This is quite different to other map based systems which often show automatically generated, computer model data. MetEye forecast maps have been adjusted by our meteorologists to better represent expected weather. See the "About MetEye" page for further information.
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Nobody should be bagging the BOM.
Maybe the people who are critical of it would like it privatized, coz we all know how well that works.......
And the people who say they use different methods (or Apps) for their weather.......................where do you think the above mentioned methods/Apps get all the information they use......?

Leave the BOM ALONE!