I think I'll bung all my zacs up on flee bay.
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I think I'll bung all my zacs up on flee bay.
You are correct, if you are applying the law of averages.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lotz-A-Landies
Someone needs to do probability 101 again.Quote:
Originally Posted by bacicatHmmm, I don't see it that way (but I'm not saying you're wrong...;)). If that were the case then wouldn't every number between 1 and 100 become rarer than the last time - apart from the number that comes up? You have to get one number between 0 and 99 come up every fill, so I don't see the odds of each fill changing, but the chance of a specific number I haven't had before coming up increases....Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick_Marsh
Like if you flip a coin, if you want heads and a tail comes up, that doesn't mean a tail will be less likely the next toss, just the opposite.
I could see your calculation working if I thought I should get 00 in consecutive fills.
.... Told you it baked my noodle... :D
Off to google some probability calculations...
Every toss of the coin has exactly the same probability 1/2, although in a run of tosses you may move one way or the other but the more tosses the more likely you are to have 50% heads and 50% tails.
With the fuel pump you have 1/100 chance of it stopping on a dollar for every dollar you fill, if you purchase ~$20 you have ~20/2000 chance of it stopping on a dollar value (or 1/100) the next time you fill you have exactly the same probability. The probability doesn't change because each event is discrete.
If the law of averages were applied to Tattslotto, we would be getting roughly the same number of first division winners each week. This is not the case. Sometimes we get ten winners and sometimes it is jackpotted.
When applying the law of averages at the fuel bowser, as Gav has drawn to our attention to, we would get the nozzle clicking off at an even dollar value roughly every 100 times. In the many years and thousands of times I have used a bowser, this has never happened to me. I would have remembered.
The law of averages only uses a small selection set and is not really accurate.
It's not the Law of averages though Mick. Its the law of chance. If you keep betting on 100 to 1 shots you will go broke.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick_Marsh
There used to be a servo in Mackay that would give you your fuel for free if the bowser clicked off at .00c !!! I really don't think that they gave much fuel away.... had a mate that would only fill there for the chance to get free fuel.
The problem of probability and Tattslotto winners is not a failure of the theory but because the participants do not get a random set of numbers and unlike a lottery all the number combination possibilities do not necessarily exist in the Tattslotto ticket population each week. They are numbers effected by choice, often these relate to birthdays, anniversaries etc. so you are more likely to get multiple 1st Division winners if the majority of winning numbers are less than 32 (days in month) which includes 12 and less (months in year).Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick_Marsh
If you were to analyse the winning number combinations, rather than Div 1 winners, you will find the law of probability remains intact.
It'll probably taste a whole lot better, and be a lot healthier for you too :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Lotz-A-Landies
You haven't seen my Lotz-A-Muffins! Toasted and buttered English muffin, bacon, mini-beef pattie, egg and sauce. :oQuote:
Originally Posted by Chops
Still my campfire coffee percolator never tastes quite as nice as one made by a commercial espresso machine even if it's only a McBarista made one at a McCafe. ;)
That's because in 1972 only 8,256,000 5 cent coins were minted. Compared with 39,516,000 5 cent coins minted in 1971 and 48,816,000 minted in 1973 makes the 1972 5 cent coin scarce. Just try finding one in change. Even a well worn and circulated 1972 5 cent coin can sell as much as $20.00 on eBay.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick_Marsh
Mintage figures taken from "Australian Coins and Banknotes" by Greg McDonald. It is used by collectors and dealers of Australian coins and banknotes and very highly regarded.
The odds would stay the same only because it is with replacement.
If i had 5 apples and 6 oranges in a bucket the chance of getting an apple is 5/11. If I then put that Apple on the bench, the chance of getting a second apple is 4/10. Thus the chances of getting 2 apples in a row is 20/110 or 4/22 (18%).
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Crunchy nut corn flakes are not the same as corn flakes.