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Thread: Power loss forecast for Victorian Summer Peak periods

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    NavyDiver's Avatar
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    Power loss forecast for Victorian Summer Peak periods


    the risk of such blackouts is significantly higher across the border in Victoria.

    eyes+in+the+dark.png


    I think this will be of interest to many of us. Power supply is crucial to some and for some life depends on it. With short outages many of us will not care to much. For some it must be and can be avoided if a little planning occurs now. With the stated 30-40% chance of outages in Victoria the article looking very realistic in the next 5 months I am posting this in General chat to allow you to consider if you might need to do something now. (Planning a camping trips could work as well perhaps)


    Return on Investment or ROI on Solar for most business is under 12 months now. Note - Less GST Less immediate write off for most small business makes it much cheaper than an equivalent home system! I have 5.2kw - wish it was 10! I get over 40 kwh in summer and over 10 kwh in winter and self consume almost every bit.
    ROI for homes even in VIC is under 5 years. IF you jump to Solar consider a Hybrid inverter which allows you to have your solar if the grid fails. Put a protected and unprotected grid at home costs very little and even in winter solar should cover my protected grid most of the time. I am lucky enough have some batteries to cover me the rest of the time even if the sun is not shining.

    The Grid outage forecast can be avoided if you plan now. If you want Solar seriously consider a Hybrid inverter which allows you to have power if the grid is off. If so you may need to consider having protected circuits and non protected circuits or cut out switches of electrical items which might over load the capacity of your solar output. Mine can cope with 5000w or peak 7000w for a very short period.


    Sure some of you have generators and battery/ solar all ready so this is intended for those who haven't bit the bullet yet.

    No Gov or pollie chat on this thread please so it can stay in General Chat. Current Affairs has a thread you can go to town on them if you want to do so.

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    Solar power does work rather well when the Sun is shining But not so well at night
    We often get power outages where we are especially after Summer Storms go through and I usually hook up our camping batteries to an inverter with the solar panels deployed during the day then crank up the genset at night

    I feel that if I already have the power hardware available that I use for camping I can also use it at home if necessary during a Blackout with NO extra costs involved
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    the worst thing about this is their will be spare generators etc when a black out happens but the companies elect to keep them off untill the prices go stupidly high as they have them their as a tax write off so unless they are going to earn 5000% above normal electricity price they leave them turned off.

    well looks like ill be running a lead up to the swampy and have the little generator ready to go for that and the fridge this summer.

    then dig up that solar quote i got and maybe get it put on

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    Quote Originally Posted by NavyDiver View Post

    No Gov or pollie chat on this thread please so it can stay in General Chat.
    I disagree. It should have been in Alternate Energies.
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    Quote Originally Posted by p38arover View Post
    I disagree. It should have been in Alternate Energies.
    Not sure if I think a basic power supply is Alternative. 30 years ago Solar might have been viewed as alternative. Mods might get grumpy if we post about politics in Alternative Energy as well

    My industry/business has tens of thousands of Vaccines in fridges. At a guess Vic Government would have several million in losses if the power was off for 4 hours plus on top of the stuff I buy myself for Doctors use. More than a few have life saving need for a stable power supply. Hundreds of us have $$$$$ or more in the freezers at home. A short power outage is a minor issue. In high fire risk areas in the country this is possibly an even more serious issue who could benefit from considering this.

    I do not sell solar systems and shared for those interested or who might benefit by considering if they need to take actions before summer. Not telling anyone what to do just sharing my errors and fixes to avoid power loss.

    I see where your coming from of course. Camping kit and BBQ works for me at home as well

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    I hope you see the irony in this thread.

    Solar panels and wind farms and the Victorian Government's response caused the blackout problem, and you are advocating more of the same.

    If Hazlewood had been paid a "spinning reserve " fee as I understand they do in Europe, and the government had not increased the royalty , then Hazlewood would probably still be operating.

    I don't have the option of solar power as I have that old fashioned energy conservation called "trees" which lower the temperature in my house so that I don't need aircon in summer or for that matter heating in winter ,as I have that old fashioned energy conservation called "quilts" and "jumpers".

    It will really irk me if I have to buy a generator so that people with solar panels can run their air conditioning, stoves, microwaves at night and suck up just as much power as if they didn't have solar panels at all, because it is a fact that solar panels only produce energy when nobody wants it.

    Blackouts are most likely to happen when power demand is highest and that is AFAIK from about 4PM to 9PM when everyone comes home from work. Good luck with the solar panels then.
    Regards Philip A

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    hazlewood was stuffed they had been keeping it alive 20 years past when it was meant to be shut down, it originally was meant to be **** down in 1995.
    and even if they kept it running it would of been **** down this summer anyway as they had to rebuild plant which was estimated to be between 750mil to 1 billion before cost blowouts, it was going to be cheaper to build a new plant then rebuild hazlewood.

    Tree's don't work so good in a desert (Which is what a lot of western vic really is) in summer as 40degC is still 40degC and nether do quilts and jumpers when ya get a bad frost.

    and yes the government should be investing in solar and wind farms but in conjunction with stored hydro.
    Should their also be coal yes atm their should but like the industry keeps saying bring in a a set of regulation's to work to not this up in the air no one knows whats going to happen crap.

    also just rember when before the power was privatized and then the AEM (australian energy market) was introduced australia had one of the lowest power cost's in the developed world, now with the AEM and privatization we have the most expensive. with a grid worth twice as much as america's grid

    so no one wants any power before 4 or after 9?

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    How's the NBN in a power outtage eh? Doesn't work. If you stipulate and pay for a battery back up phone you'll have 3-5 hours of communication in a power outtage. Which will marry up nicely with the mobile phone towers with have a battery life of 4 hours. So after a power outtage you can communicate for 4 or 5 hours if you're lucky. **** system with no redundancy. Better hope we never have a large bushfire corresponding with a power out. Because that never happens. Power loss forecast for Victorian Summer Peak periods

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    So after a power outtage you can communicate for 4 or 5 hours if you're lucky. **** system with no redundancy. Better hope we never have a large bushfire corresponding with a power out. Because that never happens.
    The emergency services rely on VHF and UHF radio for communication so No Phone or internet really isn't an issue, But most of them have access to Sat phones anyway if the Need is there.
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    No they don't. CFA, Victoria Police and Ambulance Victoria all use digital comms. Most also don't have UHF backup anymore unless it's an old truck.

    The digital comms are on the same towers as mobile phones around here. Some also have their own tower in the telco compounds. They have separate battery systems to the mobile towers but also only have a 4 hour battery life. No towers or EM comms in my municipality have generator backup either.

    And what about the community? Most regular people don't have UHF or VHF. How are they supposed to find out what a fire is doing without any comms?

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