My apologies, I thought you were referring to the annual inspections. There is evidence out there, although what I recall would be old data now. Without going back all through all my files etc, there was a 2000 study in Aus that I could lay my hands on that in summary stated:
"In-depth crash studies tend to indicate that the contribution of defects to crashes is under-reported by Police. The current NSW Crashed Vehicles Study appears to be finding similar results to in-depth studies carried out in the USA and Germany. Those studies, covering vehicles operating in jurisdictions with periodic vehicle inspections, found that vehicle factors, particularly defects, were definitely causal, possibly causal or contributory in at least 12% of all crashes. The USA study found much higher rates with older vehicles but the age of the study (1977) and the small sample sizes of older vehicles mean caution should be exercised in the application of these results to present-day Australia.
Cost-effectiveness studies concerning inspection programs have tended to be rather vague and speculative. Given the same data, organisations have sometimes come to diametrically opposed conclusions. This situation probably results from uncertainty about both the contribution of defects to crashes and the influence of inspection programs on these defects. Subject to this uncertainty (and continuing the speculation) , the contribution of periodic car inspections to crashes is likely to be a few percent. Given the overall cost of car crashes in Australia, a saving of, say, 2% can translate into well over $100 million per year. There is scope to operate effective inspection programs within this figure.
Further analysis of the NSW Crashed Vehicles Study data should help to answer several questions related to the contribution of defects to crashes and the influence of periodic vehicle inspections on these defects".
Perhaps my use of 'significantly' was overstating it. From memory there were other studies that I looked at from Sth Africa and UK, but it's too long ago now for me to remember details sorry.


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