Thread: Goodnight Diesel. ...Land Rover get your EV skates on!

Hybrids don't have to be plug ins, they can charge while driving.

Originally Posted by scarry

I am guessing 5 to 10 yrs at least,in reality probably a lot longer.

But i think the big issue will be getting the reliable power to charge these EV's.

The inconvenience will be an issue for many,particularly with company vehicles that are loaded,pulling trailers,etc.

We only have to have a hot day here and often have power issues.

I can see it happening 'yes boss,the car battery didn't charge last night'.....

Solar,batteries,are not an option for many people,for whatever reason.

For private use,short trips, around town,for some,EV maybe the go,but for many it won't be the go.


Then there is always Gav's gensets.

The whole fully EV thing sounds great until they run out of charge. I heard a story where a tow truck driver bought a Freelander 2 for approx $1500 because the replacement crank angle sensor failed, as can happen (bath/bell curves and all that). The owner was furious when it broke down along the road, and said they just wanted their money back from the last service and repair bill which the towie was prepared to offer.

I reckon the future business to be in, would be a a double cab tow truck with a generator to charge the car while you drive the passengers a few (hundred) miles towards their destination. With reverse eftpos facility so that one could buy the offending vehicles from the disillusioned owners.

I think manufacturers are mad to offer full EV cars that is just cutting their own throats, it has to be hybrid. Instead of rushing down the EV path they should start selling their current line up with, say 10-20 litre fuel tanks, that need to be re-fuelled via a 3mm hose and see how many they sell.

Even the hip, happening, younger generation, supposedly the target market of the new EV technology will not put up with the charging inconvenience, as they are used to instant gratification, with every thing available immediately, at their finger tips, on their smart phones.

IMHO the takeup of EVs will be dependent on how much subsidy the government offers or alternatively how much extra tax is levied on diesel and petrol.

The article I quoted earlier in the thread showed that in Toronto and the province EV sales have virtually stopped since removal of the subsidy.

California intends to have a subsidy equal to the difference in price between an EV and a similarly equipped ICE car so lots will be sold /given there.
Regarding Tesla, model 3 sales only just recently reached near their target and they are satisfying 2 or more years of pent up orders. I saw analyst reports that stated that the ONLY profit made by Tesla was from the USD13000 subsidy paid by the US federal government, and AFAIK a USD12000 payment per car by other car makers who have not sold the required number of EVS. The 13K cuts 50% out when 200,000 EVs (soon for Tesla) have been produced and goes to nothing in 2020.

You can be sure that all other car makers have done a finite element analysis on Tesla cars ( where they dismantle a car down to all its component parts and price each part to calculate a build price) , so why haven't they all introduced similar cars. Perhaps there is no money in it? GM is discontinuing the Volt( or is it Bolt?) .

I personally think that it will be a brave government in Australia who would upset millions of diesel/petrol owners by increasing tax. Subsidies? maybe. NSW already gives rego discounts to EVs but it is very small.

As an aside I had a look at Nissan Leaf ads in Carsales . There were 9 in total and one was a 2102 model first registered in 2015. ( that is BAD)They all were around 28K , which I think comes under the category of "tell em they're dreamin"
You would have to be dedicated to pay 28K for a Yaris equivalent at say 10-12 K.
Regards Philip A

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A very interesting video, but I am sure that GM, Ford, BMW, Jaguar etc all have their own laboratories doing the same thing. Heck Ford Australia used to do it for Commodores etc. I have seen a dismantled Commodore in the Design Centre
I am not convinced that he would get unit prices from suppliers as this is usually contractually confidential information. I think he would estimate many of the prices.

And what level of Model 3 is he talking about? AFAIK the vast majority of Model 3s have been specced up to be retail at about USD80K. This will not go on once the backlog of enthusiast orders is filled. It usually takes about 6 months to satisfy early adopters , but it may last a year for Tesla seeing the backlog, but after the rich mix is gone , is it profitable at 30K?
But good on Tesla for being a leader in electronics. Of course they are doomed now that the CEO is from Telstra.

I am very impressed with the cars, it's just the business model of direct selling and preventing any outsiders from working on the products that I disagree with.
Regards Philip A

I think hybrid sales will rise significantly, for example Toyota hybrids, and pure EVs will take longer, but it's only a matter of time.

The whole fully EV thing sounds great until they run out of charge.

Well, an EV running out of charge is as miserable as an ICE vehicle running out of fuel, no better, no worse. I have been driving my Tesla for about 160.000kms and still have run out of charge at least once. It's just a matter of thinking ahead, as simple as that.
I'm not convinced that hybrids are a viable solution, they simply combine the disadvantages of both concepts. They may have their value in convincing previously indecisive people, after driving electric for some miles one only gets annoyed when the engine kicks in, so the next vehicle then will be all-electric powered.

To bore you with another statistic from Norway, the list of the most sold vehicles last year
NorgeBilar2018.png
Nissan Leaf leads by a fair margin, followed by VW Golf and BMW i3. If you then consider that the vast majority of the Golfs are e-Golf (7238 of 9859), the first three places are occupied by EVs. Place 4 Tesla Model X, on 5th the first hybrid (Mitsubishi Outlander). Places 6,7 and 9 are ICE vehicles, whilst Tesla Model S and Renault Zoe come 8 and 10. If you wish, you can see the whole report here:
Norwegian OFV-Report

In a few years time, ICE will be history. In some places sooner, in others somewhat later. Most likely this won't be to the late-adopter's advantage.

Of course they are doomed now that the CEO is from Telstra.

Originally Posted by goingbush

Hilarious reading some of these posts, I'll save them & put into a time capsule to be opened in 5 years.

Ok so come 2024, what do you hope to confirm? Evs outselling ICE for new car sales? Maybe!?

You might get that 'I told you so' moment in 2024.... but I wouldnt bank on it. Change can be infuriatingly slow.

EVs are here, mass uptake is likely, but ICE will still have the majority on the road in 5 years time, and by a good margin.

Im looking forward to getting into EVs in the 2020s. Its just a shame its taken so long to get here.