Thread: Goodnight Diesel. ...Land Rover get your EV skates on!

Originally Posted by goingbush

Where are the ICE vehicles going to come from, No one will be making them in 5 years .

I think you are either an optimist or joking. I will be most surprised if EVs overtake ICE vehicles in sales in less than ten years. But I'll surprised if they are not taking a big chunk of the market by then.

Originally Posted by JDNSW

I think you are either an optimist or joking. I will be most surprised if EVs overtake ICE vehicles in sales in less than ten years. But I'll surprised if they are not taking a big chunk of the market by then.

Experts are saying Peak ICE was 2018 , apparently the market is slowing down buying new cars and holding out for EV's . The Manufacturers are gearing up for EV's . 5 years is a bit optimistic but it seems the transition will be a lot faster than was predicted 12 months ago.

Was 2018 the year of peak combustion engine? | MNN - Mother Nature Network


Rolls Royce is about the only maker that is not planning an EV (leaving that to Bentliegh) but they are getting right into Electric Aviation.

Originally Posted by goingbush

Experts are saying Peak ICE was 2018 , apparently the market is slowing down buying new cars and holding out for EV's . The Manufacturers are gearing up for EV's . 5 years is a bit optimistic but it seems the transition will be a lot faster than was predicted 12 months ago.

Was 2018 the year of peak combustion engine? | MNN - Mother Nature Network


Rolls Royce is about the only maker that is not planning an EV (leaving that to Bentliegh) but they are getting right into Electric Aviation.

Makes total sense to me. With the rapid global uptake of new technologies and blatantly obvious climate change, it will be 5 years max that buying a new ICE vehicle will be almost impossible imo.

Originally Posted by JDNSW

I think you are either an optimist or joking. I will be most surprised if EVs overtake ICE vehicles in sales in less than ten years. But I'll surprised if they are not taking a big chunk of the market by then.

In Norway, almost 50% of all new cars sold are EVs
NorgeSept2018.jpg
This pic shows last September's figures, but refers only to EVs, not considering hybrids. By now, the percentage should be even better. The Norwegian government assumes no ICE vehicle will be sold after 2025, eliminating the need for legislative measures.

I think you are over estimating the rate at which the motor industry can change. Even bringing out a completely new model from an established manufacturer usually takes close to ten years, and this involves replacing virtually every model car on sale, as well as major changes to infrastructure and procedures worldwide. And few involved have even started looking at it seriously more than a couple of years ago.

I cannot think of any industry of comparable size that has changed as rapidly as you are suggesting. Mobile phone technology is the one that will obviously be suggested - but effectively this was a new industry, not the redirecting of an old one, and there is a major difference between making and introducing a device weighing a few hundred grams and one weighing a few thousand kilograms and costing a hundred times as much.

But we will see how things work out over the next few years. If you are right, we won't have to wait as long as the wait for a Defender replacement!

Experts are saying Peak ICE was 2018 , apparently the market is slowing down buying new cars and holding out for EV's . The Manufacturers are gearing up for EV's . 5 years is a bit optimistic but it seems the transition will be a lot faster than was predicted 12 months ago.

Yeah, and "experts" said that 2009 was Peak Oil.

I think in 10 years the ICE engine will be quoting Mark Twain.

It all depends on what the take up will be of EVs with no subsidies. The article I posted about Ontario shows that EV sales plummet with no subsidies.
Of course there will be a pent up demand this year in Australia when all the virtue signalers like Green local Councils buy EVs, but I will be interested to see how many private citizens buy a Hyundai EV vs a Hybrid or another model, which in case the fan boys don't know has an ICE .

I can recall when NSW Agriculture bought quite a few Priuses which were then exiled to the country where they were useless and the staff tried to destroy them. Of Course the executive preferred their Statesmen. .

How many private citizens will buy a $54 K EV vs the same size ICE at say 25K? especially when the battery may last only 8 years , and cost ? ($15K-20K???) to replace. An ICE engine these days is just getting into its prime at 160,000KM.

Regards Philip A
BTW, the posters seem to forget that the three or four most popular vehicles in Australia are twin Cab utes with a diesel engine. This is vastly different to Europe. In The Middle east they even ban diesels as they want to sell petrol so I cannot see Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, and other oil producers switching to EVs. The makers of these diesels are already innovating with smaller more powerful engines.

Originally Posted by PhilipA

BTW, the posters seem to forget that the three or four most popular vehicles in Australia are twin Cab utes with a diesel engine. This is vastly different to Europe. In The Middle east they even ban diesels as they want to sell petrol so I cannot see Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, and other oil producers switching to EVs. The makers of these diesels are already innovating with smaller more powerful engines.

Yes mate, we will see how that goes.
the makers have left their run with smaller more powerful engines too late, they had the tech years ago but held off too long.
Writing is on the wall.



Middle East among the pioneers of electric car adoption - The National

55 new e-car models to come to UAE. 10 reasons to buy - Khaleej Times

Lucid Motors secures $1 billion from Saudi wealth fund to launch the Air – TechCrunch

YouTube

This "Rivian" fully electric SUV/Pick Up is impressive if it lives up to it's spec's in real world conditions.