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That would not sell papers, Eevo. . From what I can see not too much is going to hit Adelaide but the band will be North East of Ad.
(We had Electric Blankets on last night as it was a tad nippy here.)
But they have got it wrong before now, so maybe we might get 150mm & severe flooding. [happycry]
.. and we on the Western end are enjoying balmy weather - at the moment...
it was flipping cold the other night!Quote:
Originally Posted by 4bee
Our former neighbours at Springwood in Logan recorded 570mm of rain in 2019. Brisbane's annual average is 1006 mm, so Springwood was 436mm below average.
No wonder it's as dry as an oven and fires are totally banned. Queensland has already had it's fire season of course, including evacuations around Noosa.
So how's the rainfall in the rest of the country?
In WA fires are banned during the summer months why is it not the same in all the other states??
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eevo
Elders Weather
So not so surprising then Eevo?[bigsad]
thats weather not climate [biggrin]Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoMick
[QUOTE=NavyDiver;2963674]....
A chronology of major bushfires in Victoria from 2013 back to 1851
....QUOTE]
Thanks for that one ND, haven't see their info until this one.
I found a NSW parliament doc link for NSW list, and posted it earlier in the thread .. thread move too fast sometimes to keep a track of it all.
Interesting!Quote:
Originally Posted by bob10
So does that mean the consensus is that dramatic flood situations aren't due to climate change, but drought and fires are?
Would that be because they're in the current news, more specifically in the news headlines?
So if no one has made mention of it, it's not an issue?
This is the ACTUAL effect that climate change is having. If it's not on the public consciousness, it's not a concern.
The general publics' concern is virality(not reality). If it's not 'viral' .. it's not interesting. No one talks about it, so it's not important. It's self perpetuating forgetfulness. People forget that not that long ago, in the supposed era of global warming, the climate suddenly cooled due to a lot of rainy periods(which naturally tend to have this effect). 2010 and 2011 were (both)about 1° cooler than 2019 here in Aus.
How does this correlate to their models?
I not one scientist saw that climactic decadal occurrence coming, and ask them what happened and why, and they blame it on climate change?
YET! .. if you are smarter than the average so called climate scientist(which BTW I'm not) .. you can easily see that this exact same decadal fluctuation happened 8 times in the period from 1900 to 1970 .. ie. every decade. There are 1°C swings in average temps within this period.
As said many times before and will say it again, this is normal. This is to be expected, and as long as those scientific chooks continue their merry run around their scientific chook pens with their heads cut off(or inserted into whatever orifice) .. they will never come to understand the simplicity of the climate. And the answer is staring at them in the face, whle they continue to ignore their own data!Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoMick
Wrong attitude. Immigration is the answer to many questions.Quote:
Originally Posted by BradC
Question for 'ya. (not knowing how old you are) .. but who's going to 'pay' for your retirement .. or do you plan to pay taxes all the way to your final breath(assuming you live to the ripe 'ol age of 100+)?
Strangely, and contrary to popular belief, the worlds population growth RATE is slowing. India the China have caused this.
This isn't the same thing as the population NUMBERS .... different metric. Sure now population is whatever .. 8 billion or so, so these 8 billions will make more babies than say 4 billion people will, so while the numbers are getting bigger.
But the actual population growth rate .. the rate of increase has slowed a lot .. so much so China has already changed it's ways and seen that an impending socio-economic effect required them to make changes.
Basically what I'm saying that that you mentioned "prolific rates" .. maybe you meant "numbers".
Here in Vic, for most of the state, average or maybe a touch more. But the NW (ie. Wimmera ... or basically the Murray Darling southern edge) has been hit hard, so it took Vics average down with it.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoMick
See Tassie tho. Western half in flood, Eastern half in drought .. the two made the state pretty much average(IIRC 0.75% down, or something).
To be clear on this: the current drought is primarily what would be considered to be the Murray Darling Basin(MDB), doesn't mean only that specific area, as much of QLD is not part of the MDB, but as a general guide, consider it to be one and the same.
The current consensus is that this current drought is one of the worst in Aus history, and by sheer numbers, the 5th worst.
When you have a drought period of that magnitude, you would reasonably expect that a fire season of equally horrific proportions would arise. I'm not even a scientist and would expect just that event to happen.
So the question to the climate/enviro scientist .. why wasn't this predicted in the modelling, and action made to mitigate the size of the catastrophe.
As said before, witin the next 3 years or so, will begin the exact same cycle thats happened about 12 times now since 1900 ... we'll have two 1-1.5°C cooler years than this 'hottest' one, and rain will come.
You don't need U-bute super computers, IODs and whatnot to see this ... and the next cycle ... unfolding.
Virtually all of NSW is in severe drought and has been for several years. Here we have had no significant rain since March (despite 11mm last night - we were kicking up dust on the way home from town today). Average Rainfall is about 600mm, Last year was 190mm, previous years 460, 350. This does not tell the full story. The other side is evaporation, this has been much higher than normal with strong, hot, dry NW winds.
We have dams that are dry - the one on my place is dry for the first time since it was built in the early 1980s - and it has had no stock on it for three years. There are a number of towns facing critical water shortages, with some towns intermittently trucking water.
Fire is a significant concern in this area in any summer, but in some respects it is less concern than is often the case - there is so much less vegetation due to the drought. Most paddocks round here are bare ground, and I noticed yesterday after the strong winds we had the previous day, part of my track across next door's into the local village has virtually disappeared, covered by drifting sand. This is in paddocks that at this time of year would either be covered in stubble from the summer harvest, or with lush summer grazing, thanks to the usual summer rain.
Coming back from Yass after Christmas, I saw the same sort of picture everywhere this side of about Molong, with a few small patches slightly better where there has been an isolated storm.
correction to my previous reply: (MDB) should be MDB (without the cool smiley) in brackets. Also, mistake made that this current NSW/QLD drought is about the third driest on record, not 5th worst.
That would make sense, as by definition(their definition) the MBD covers about 90% of NSW by area.Quote:
Originally Posted by JDNSW
Actually, according to the rainfall stats, several years should be 3 years to be more precise.
But that's using pure rainfall data, and not taking into account consumption of water, which, as said before .. consumption is used to determine a state of drought too.
Technically, this MDB region has had below average rainfall for about 6 years all up, but 2016 was above average.
If you look at the stats for NSW/ACT, only the last 3 years have been well below average. 2014-2016 inclusive for NSW weren't so severe, as post 2017 - current.
According to BoM, average rainfall for NSW/ACT is 552.8mm(1960-1990 annualised average). MDB average is 488.4mm.
2019 annual totals were just over 300 for NSW/ACT and just under 300 for MDB.
Contrast this to Vic tho. Most dams are pretty much full. Only the main dam at Thompson is 'low'.
We've had the same pattern as NSW and or the MDB region, not quite as severe in terms of totals, but still low enough to be considered a drought, but dams are still pretty healthy.
Thompson is 60% of Vics' total supply, and is at 56%, and total capacity in Vic at the moment is 62%.