Wizard
The original press release and gap report has been linked further up in this thread.
A ton of media outlets have regurgitated it. Some more than once with slight headline tweaks to get more clicks. Do we need to link them at all?
Brace your selves for another wave of the same news story!
Cynical Moi?
Originally Posted by bob10
That is all very well until thy find that they have spent all the dosh on the gates that they have not got the spare cash to buy the spare Key to the Gate Storeroom & realise that Fred is away for a month on vacation & he has got the only available key. So who you gonna call?“We're always going to have a 24-hour period of time in the event that we know there's a hurricane coming,” Lhota told NY1 in 2017. “There's more than ample time.”
Very Very Lucky!
Fascinating so I dug a bit with BOM being my best hit supporting some aspects in Tropical Cyclone Trends . It points out how you measure is relevant as pointed out my many
"There is substantial evidence from theory and model experiments that the large-scale environment in which tropical cyclones form and evolve is changing as a result of global warming. Projected changes in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones are subject to the sources of uncertainty inherent in climate change projections. There remains uncertainty in the future change in tropical cyclone frequency (the number of tropical cyclones in a given period) projected by climate models, with a general tendency for models to project fewer tropical cyclones in the Australia region in the future climate and a greater proportion of the high intensity storms (stronger wind speeds and heavier rainfall). Wind speed is only one aspect of tropical cyclones and their impacts. The amount of heavy precipitation from all weather systems, including tropical cyclones, is likely to increase. Increased rainfall intensity from tropical cyclones is pertinent to Australia, since these storms have historically been associated with major flooding.
Additionally, increases in storm surges and extreme sea-levels are very likely to occur in association with tropical cyclones under future climate change. This change is independent of changes in tropical cyclone intensity and is directly related to increases in global mean sea-level due to global warming.
Projected changes in tropical cyclone characteristics are inherently tied to changes in large-scale patterns such as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, changes in sea surface temperature and changes in deep convection. As global climate models improve, their simulation of tropical cyclones is expected to improve, thus providing greater certainty in projections of tropical cyclone changes in a warmer world."
tc-graph-1969-2012.jpg
Uncertainty
TopicToaster
SupporterAll you've shown is another link to an opinion piece.
There is zero data offered as proof in that link.
This section from that link:
proof that they are blithering idiots!For example, in recent decades, hot days and nights have become more frequent, more intense and longer lasting in tandem with decreases in cold days and nights for most regions of the globe
How is it that more hot days and less cold days defines an extreme!?
This exact situation is what constitutes global warming .. more hotter days -> thus globe is warming up.
This is not extreme. Just because they can't handle some warm days, doesn't make it extreme weather.
what defines extreme weather events is the variance from one end of the spectrum to the other .. ie. extreme events .. not just one end increasing!
if you just landed in Aus on a 28°C day(and a little humid) from Sweden which was -10°C .. does this mean the weather is extreme in Aus?
No! .. it's just 28°C .. to us it's normal. 40°C in Aus is normal. A heat wave of 40°C or so over 3 days is suddenly an extreme weather event ?
Last Christmas, I was looking forward to heading out to mid central Sth Aus(Broken Hill/Arkaroola area) .. forecast was for 6-7 days straight of 43°C or more!
Looking to head there for that exact reason! .. but according to some soft organed scientist .. this is an extreme weather event.
Far as I can remember .. it's been normal for most of anyone's existence on the continent!
Can't fathom what's wrong with people nowadays.
Anyhow .. the data you're looking from me (personally) was posted back in reply #589 .. look at the graph. Make up your own mind.
Note that extreme weather events should be defined as variances from one end of the scale to the other .. not just how much happened at one end.
Put another way .. it's the range of the weather .. not just what type of weather we're seeing .. eg. how much flood compared with how much drought in a given period(like a decade, or 4 decades or whatever).
That graph I posted in #589 is BoM .. look it up for yourself.
I also posted for others to view the BoM data on their sites. Some others have, but fail to see the obvious. Winters are warming at about 1.0°C over the record period, whereas Summers have only warmed by 0.7°C.
Granted it's a small difference, but a difference nonetheless! .. ie. winter is becoming less so, more like summer.
At that rate, in 5000 odd years from now, people of that era will not know what a winter is! Winter and summer weather will have equalised in terms of average temperatures.
A ridiculous notion to assume that the globe will warm by 1°C per century ... indefinitely(or at least 5000 years) without any variance or anomaly period. Never happened ever in history, no data to indicate that it will.
And if it does, that would mean an average global temp in the mid 70's.
I won't post links to moron opinion pieces, that seek fame and fortune!
I prefer data.
And to be clear, yes that has been a very slight making of extreme weather in the past ~70 years(BoM records). They only start from 1950 for this data set.
Again, for you to find the links posted on numerous occasions, but BoM data shows that intensity of lows and intensity of highs have changed in those 70 years.
FWIW, the actual numerical value in percent terms is less than 0.07% difference.
Average intensity of lows(cyclones) has dropped from 1002hPa to just above 1001hPa .. ie. on average modern cyclones are averaging out to be 0.07% more intense than 70 years ago.
Same with the high pressure systems .. about a 0.05% increase in their intensity.
The data is all there to be seen on the BoM site.
Arthur.
All these discos are giving me a heart attack!
'99 D1 300Tdi Auto ( now sold :( )
'03 D2 Td5 Auto
'03 D2a Td5 Auto
CTRL + V!
Subscriber
Over and over and over again, until it sinks in.
I’m pretty sure the dinosaurs died out when they stopped gathering food and started having meetings to discuss gathering food
A bookshop is one of the only pieces of evidence we have that people are still thinking
Super Moderator
Could easily be construed as nagging into submission.
If you don't like trucks, stop buying stuff.
CTRL + V!
SubscriberCould easily be construed as nagging into submission.
Don't ever say marriage teaches us nothing.
I’m pretty sure the dinosaurs died out when they stopped gathering food and started having meetings to discuss gathering food
A bookshop is one of the only pieces of evidence we have that people are still thinking
Very Very Lucky!
Summer outlook from Bureau of Meteorology suggests hot, dry times to continue
Bathers ready
Summer outlook from Bureau of Meteorology suggests hot, dry times to continue - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
OldBushie
SupporterSummer in Australia is Usually hot and dry otherwise it would be called Winter.
Nothing to see here.
You only get one shot at life, Aim well
2004 D2 "S" V8 auto, with a few Mods gone
2007 79 Series Landcruiser V8 Ute, With a few Mods.
4.6m Quintrex boat
20' Jayco Expanda caravan gone
Super Moderator
Bloody Victorians, just get ya togs out.
If you don't like trucks, stop buying stuff.
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