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Dr Karl had some not so cheery news on the radio today. He predicts 1% of the global population will die of coronovirus within 18 months.
He said 40-70% of people will catch it and 2% of them will die, so that's about 1% of the total.
So there you go.
Incidentally he also said people should take the long view because in 5 billion years the Earth will be sucked into the Sun anyway.
So there's also that to look forward too.
4 weeks ago the fatality rate was ~2.5% of infection. Today it's 3.4%.Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoMick
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
It's interesting to watch (for a certain definition of "interesting"). Frankly I think toilet paper is going to be the least of our worries, the conspiracy theories are always amusing though.
Special Lotto draw tonight - first division prize One million rolls of toilet paper.
The death rate seems to depend on how extensively the population has been tested. The more you test the more you find. Complacency and political repression affect the results.
China seems to have done well, as has South Korea, but Japan and Iran have done poorly and the USA is well behind the curve too.
real value is closer to 5.8%Quote:
Originally Posted by BradC
I don't deal in facts. "Puts fingers in ears and sings la-la-la-la-I-can't-hear-you-meanie-poo-la-la-la-la"Quote:
Originally Posted by Eevo
Yeah, it's not good. I have a 4 year old severely immuno-compromised feral. I have two main consolations. One, he's in an infection-controlled environment and two there don't appear to be any serious cases affecting children.
There are no deaths (so far) for children under ten.
Mortality rate is difficult to get a handle on while the number of cases is increasing rapidly - as it has been ever since this started. The only really accurate way of getting it is by comparing the number who have recovered to the number who have died. But this is going to be distorted according by the different time taken (on average) to die versus to recover, and we probably have no good handle on this and are unlikely to until the number of active cases becomes steady (which may be a year away).
Regardless, it is, from the data we have so far, clear that the rate is over 1%, quite possibly well over. In China, it has decreased from an initial 17% to 3.8%, but this probably reflects that only the most serious cases were identified at first, as well as improvements in care as more has been learned about the disease.
What is clear, is that it is usually only serious in those over about fifty and/or those with other medical problems. Above 70, it climbs rapidly, and over 80 is close to 15%. To a significant extent, this probably reflects that the older patients are more likely to have other medical problems.
From the Chinese data, men are about twice as likely to die as women, but this may reflect the relative smoking rates between the sexes in China.
Poor people are more likely to die.
Old people are more likely to die.
People with other conditions are more vulnerable.
Poor old people with the flu are cactus.
Definitely getting the flu shot ASAP.
[emoji15]
Good news is it seems relatively safe here in Tassie. Plenty of toilet paper too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DiscoMick
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Incidentally he also said people should take the long view because in 5 billion years the Earth will be sucked into the Sun anyway.
So there's also that to look forward too.
For those who plan on being Cremated can rest easy now then? Bloody good that, it saves on Funeral Director's fees. Robbing bastards!
Right, now to find a place to stockpile the stiffs for 5 Billion years.
I know, we can bury them & dig them up later.
Wait a mo, I detect there may be a flaw in my plan.:wallbash::Rolling:
Cremating adds to global emissions.
Better pick a spot and pre-dig a hole.
It is legal to be buried on your own property, but there is a process and no doubt the local council will want a fee.
We have a nice spot in the front garden, right in the middle of our flash new septic system, which already contains the wife's dog and a couple of chooks, so that might do. I'll tell the wife the excavation is for a frog pond. [emoji6]