Listened to a couple of experts tonight, including a mathematical epidemologist from Melbourne University. The modelling that has been done by a group of these indicated the peak (highest number of cases) will be in two to five months from now, most likely August (for the first wave of infections). The consensus seems to be that the time to cancel, or perhaps more accurately, ban, large gatherings will be in the next week or two. This makes the Royal Easter Show doubtful. Opening match of the NRL season tonight in Parramatta, F1 in Melbourne over the weekend. The NRL will certainly happen, and probably the F1, but I would not be surprised if these were the last major events in Australia for the next six months or more.
One of the major problems the government is facing at the moment is that their health advisors and their economic advisors are giving opposite advice. The former is saying "don't go out and socialise, you'll spread the virus", and the economic advisors are saying "don't stop going out and socialising or you'll wreck the economy". My guess is that most Australians will gradually stop going out as the body count increases, and will stay at home long after it is necessary, resulting in the epidemic being worse than it needed to be, and the recession worse than it needed to be!
John
JDNSW
1986 110 County 3.9 diesel
1970 2a 109 2.25 petrol
So be it!
It's going to hit casual workers hard, the large percentage of young people that cant find full time jobs out there and have to rely and make ends meet on a weekly unsecure basis at the best of times. The workers in the hospitality industry are nearly all casual workers, If they are sick and have 2 weeks home quarantine, who pays the bills for them as they don't get sick or holiday pay and are already some of the lowest paid workers
And probably the first place many won't want to go to is a restaurant,so that will knock them around even more.
The banning of large gatherings such as large sports events,etc,won't help them either.
MacDonalds,and those types will probably do well,as they are a drive through
Paul
D2,D2,D2a,D4,'09 Defender 110(sons), all moved on.
'56 S1,been in the family since...'56
Comes out of hibernation every few months for a run
Totally disagree with this John.
The populist pollies will risk science being wrong with climate, epidemiology, etc just to win the next election.
Responsible leaders would put the welfare of their constituents ahead of their own aspirations.
We are now seeing ridiculous potential economic and health risks being copped by the general population for what should be simple informed risk assessment without politics.
DL
Heard health care is going to be better in marginal seats...
It will impact a lot more than casual workers I'm afraid... all industry and business will suffer.
One of the first items to slash is vehicle expences and maintenance/ repairs. This, for us, is going to be a very lean few months I fear...😫
The Isuzu 110. Solid and as dependable as a rock, coming soon with auto box😊
The Range Rover L322 4.4.TTDV8 ....probably won't bother with the remap..😈
I'm not sure what you are disagreeing with. Are you saying that the health and economic advice is the same? It is not a simple risk assessment - it is necessary to decide whether to weigh economic risk higher than health risk or the reverse. There are two different risks - health and economy. And the actions that will mitigate one will exacerbate the other.
A government cannot favour either of these without condemnation, often from the same people.
I am quite sure that we are now well into the greatest health issue we have faced since 1919, and almost certainly also into the greatest economic issue since 1929.
The economic effects of this epidemic are going to be much greater than they were in 1919, for two reasons - in 1919, we were already on a war footing, and everyone was used to doing without, and in 1919 everyday life depended far less on trade; much more was done locally, whether you are talking about local as in Australia or local as in in your town or village.
Responsible leaders would put the welfare of their constituents ahead of their own aspirations - but their bodily welfare or their economic welfare when actions to enhance one of these is the reverse of the other?
John
JDNSW
1986 110 County 3.9 diesel
1970 2a 109 2.25 petrol
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