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Thread: Covid Mk ll

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eevo View Post
    simple. every country that was tried lockdown, still has covid in it.
    ........
    That is not evidence that they don't work.
    The issue is not whether those countries still have covid, but rather how much covid they have.
    If they have less covid, there has been a benefit.
    Why do you assume that unless something is 100% effective that it doesn't work?
    If it has reduced cases or slowed the increase, it has worked.
    It doesn't have to make things perfect. It just has to make things better or stop things getting worse.

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  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by vnx205 View Post
    That is not evidence that they don't work.
    The issue is not whether those countries still have covid, but rather how much covid they have.
    If they have less covid, there has been a benefit.
    Why do you assume that unless something is 100% effective that it doesn't work?
    If it has reduced cases or slowed the increase, it has worked.
    It doesn't have to make things perfect. It just has to make things better or stop things getting worse.
    is your goal elimination or reduction?


    imho reduction isnt a worthwhile goal for the cost.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by vnx205 View Post
    It is merely evidence of a lack of compliance.
    just to jump back to this, every country has non compliance with its law to some degree. with lockdowns i dont know if australian compliance is higher or lower than other countries. i dont think its relevant as there.

    also, non compliance is not a major factor according to the deputy medical chief:

    today the deputy chief health officer for NSW revealed that rule-breakers are only to blame for a tiny proportion of cases.


    Dr Marianne Gale said the “vast majority” of the new cases being found in the state are not people doing the wrong thing at all.


    She said the rising cases are merely a reflection of the fact that the virus is mostly spreading among young people and essential service workers — particularly in the hotspot suburbs of Sydney.

  4. #14
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    It could be the beginnings of a high school based outbreak in Auckland similar to that which happened in Qld. Two high school kids, each from a different school, test positive.

    An interesting article in The Conversation maps out how each age group have different behavior patterns and therefore different modes of spreading the virus between them.

  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by vnx205 View Post
    I look forward to reading your evidence that lockdowns don't work.

    Increases in numbers of cases when significant numbers of people are flouting the rules don't constitute evidence that there is a problem with lockdowns. It is merely evidence of a lack of compliance.

    Do you have evidence of situations where there was a high level of compliance, but no benefit?
    Or it could also be a certain softness to the rules. If many places that could be argued as non-essential are left to trade, there are more opportunities for spread while punters are undertaking 'legitimate' trading or business activity.

    A comparison between NZ/Auckland, Melbourne, Sydney/NSW high level restrictions is quite interesting. NSW has by far the higher number of business types still allowed to trade. This means a higher number of people about than otherwise would be with a more limiting lockdown.

    Melbourne and Auckland will be interesting to watch over the next week or two to see if the stricter lock downs have a quick or more perceptible downturn in numbers. At the moment, the Sydney numbers are escalating and if compliance to the rules are not the issue, could it be the rules themselves.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arapiles View Post
    There's been a heap of news articles recently about how the rest of the world is opening up, back to normal etc and the articles usually interview Aussie expats who are making snarky comments about us being locked down and borders closed.

    For a bit of balance (and following on from 350RRC's now locked post):

    USA

    "Back to normal" article:

    Life for Australians in Seattle, America's most vaccinated city, is getting back to normal

    But deaths in Washington State are still averaging 10 a day, so it's a fairly deadly "normal".

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...d-the-world-2/

    ICUs in Alaska and Washington under stress:

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...ve-care-units/

    The US generally is still getting 700 deaths a day - which is +95% in the last month - for a total of 624,365 deaths:


    • Hospitalizations nationwide now exceed every previous peak except last winter’s. More than 700 deaths are being reported each day, on average, a figure that has more than doubled since the start of August. Deaths have so far remained far below past records, but can lag case data by weeks.

    Covid in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count - The New York Times

    Italy

    This article provoked a fair bit of anger:

    COVID-19 and international borders: I returned from Australia to Rome, where locals can't believe our restrictions

    Actual situation in Italy?

    69 deaths yesterday, 54 the day before for a total of 128,579 deaths:

    ROME: Italy reported 69 coronavirus-related deaths on Wednesday (Aug 18) against 54 the day before, the health ministry said, while the daily tally of new infections increased to 7,162 from 5,273.
    Italy has registered 128,579 deaths linked to COVID-19 since its outbreak emerged in February last year, the second-highest toll in Europe after Britain and the eighth-highest in the world. The country has reported 4.46 million cases to date.

    https://www.channelnewsasia.com/worl...w-cases-212143


    I could go on, but won't. Israel will be a separate post.
    The post Arapiles is mentioning is simple data that says a lot about the future for 'covid normal', the politicisation of vaccination and the far lower death rate per infection after a fair swag of the sensible ones have done it:

    '158,000 new cases and 1,055 dead in the US yesterday, just for info.'

    DL

  7. #17
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    possibly 10 times or more) than that of most strains of the flu

    its odd people still do not understand

    "The COVID-19 situation is changing rapidly. Since this disease is caused by a new virus, the vast majority of people do not yet have immunity to it. Doctors and scientists are working to estimate the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be substantially higher (possibly 10 times or more) than that of most strains of the flu"


    Hopkins data which is very balanced I think

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trout1105
    Most would translate that as "Trolling"
    How is stimulating discussion trolling?? There were a number of replies to my posts that were thoughtful and structured, not just a simple "if their not vaccinated send 'em offshore in leaky boat" type of answer.

    I don't think discussing where society is heading with this pandemic is trolling. But... each to their own.
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  9. #19
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    From The Conversation, a well thought out opinion piece, which makes a lot of sense. From one well qualified to write it. What we need now is a balanced discussion, more than ever.

    1. Hassan VallyAssociate Professor, La Trobe University


    Disclosure statement

    Hassan Vally does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.


    Once 70-80% of us are fully vaccinated, the end will be in sight.
    Liam Petterson
    Deputy Editor, Health + Medicine
    "The latest mantra is that we have to learn to live with the virus. Perhaps eventually that will be true. But ATM we have a very infectious virus circulating in a mostly non-immune population. Metaphorically, we are in a tinder dry bush on a hot summers day where one spark can lead to a raging bushfire. While this unstable dynamic exists, living with the virus isn't an option. The only option is to respond aggressively and eliminate the virus in order to enjoy some freedoms while we wait for the effect of vaccines to kick in. We keep seeing the benefits of going early & hard, and with the emergence of the delta variant , this seems to be more true than ever."


    Should we give up on COVID-zero? Until most of us are vaccinated, we can't live with the virus (theconversation.com)

  10. #20
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    The article assumes that “Responding aggressively and eliminating the virus” is an option.
    Perhaps it is in those states that are lucky enough through population density, demographics, lifestyle or whatever other factors are at play that has repeatedly allowed them to recover from outbreaks.
    It certainly isn’t an option in Sydney where vaccination is the only viable solution, Melbourne is rapidly heading the same way with a three day lockdown extended to three weeks so far
    Over 10,000 people are in isolation in the ACT and I’m dubious of their chances of doing much better, although they might just pull it off.
    The best aggressive response is to get enough people vaccinated and finally it is starting to happen.

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