Covid Mk ll

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Originally Posted by incisor

and the end of September 21 nsw projections i just saw are utterly horrendous

not good...

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Horrible Inc. I really hoped NSW could keep a lid on it. We are Insanely busy trying to deal with the spreading panic it is causing. I think justifiable panic at some levels. Going wild in the unvaccinated way out west communities is a really bad outcome.

We have stuck to the three week for Pfizer but am possibly going to back track to try and get more first jabs in arms. It is honeslty hard to change the pre booked 2nd doses [bawl]

Mean while idiots are still thinking they are much smarter than all the Scientist and Doctors following something they know is smarter than the medical experts[bigwhistle][bigwhistle]"Demand Surges for Deworming Drug for Covid, Despite No Evidence It Works


Prescriptions for ivermectin have jumped to more than 88,000 per week, some pharmacists are reporting shortages and people are overdosing on forms of the drug meant for horses."
I bet the ivermectin lover wont have a vaccine but will put some horse meds in despite it being proven to be a crock of [bighmmm]

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Originally Posted by NavyDiver

some pharmacists are reporting shortages and people are overdosing on forms of the drug meant for horses."

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I often advocate for the removal of warning labels and let nature sort it out "Do not use chainsaw to trim toenails while drunk". This just seems like a concentrated form of natural selection.

On a brighter note, I got my second Pfizer this morning (5 weeks from 1st) and while the first was but a mere tickle, the second feels "slightly heavier" although my wife assures me she didn't wallop my left arm before I got out of bed.

Now I wait until things are such that I can vaccinate the 7 year old safely.

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Originally Posted by Tote

So when might be a good time for the sealed states to open up - 80% vaccinated, 90%, at some point there must be an opening of borders or we will see the scenario where the rest of the country is travelling internationally and fully open for business and state borders are still closed. I'm not sure that the population of those states would be so keen for isolation at that point in time.

Regards,
Tote

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When the effective R value is well below 1 will be the key to that answer. I am sure it is no coincidence that the modelling shows this happening when 80%+ are vaccinated.

Each time the R values drops below 1 and is trending downwards is when the past lockdowns open up again. WA would then need to see daily cases in NSW and VIC back to zero before it starts to reopen its borders.

Of course the models are all based on assumptions which can change as new issues emerge. Another more contagious variant would be a total show stopper.

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Originally Posted by 101RRS;[URL="tel:3106291"

3106291[/URL]]Try reading the doherty report (or at least the summaries) and what they have said since and what the National Cabinet have agreed rather than carrying on like you have been.

Maybe go and do a few maths courses to understand what the decisions actually mean. No one is saying anything about lifting some restrictions with only 56% vaccinated. It starts with 70% of eligible population over the age of 16. Despite agreements made in National Cabinets some State/Territory leaders have indicated that in addition to the National number they may or may not apply their own higher standard which is their call.

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70% of eligible population = 56% of whole population.

Doherty report is based on very low infection rates, not 1000’s per day. National cabinet agreed based on low infection rates.

You can rant all you want in support of the spin, but most of us see straight through it.

We need 80% of entire population vaccinated before easing restrictions. At Scomo’s rate, hello 2022.

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Originally Posted by SpudHeadTed

70% of eligible population = 56% of whole population.

Doherty report is based on very low infection rates, not 1000’s per day. National cabinet agreed based on low infection rates.

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You obviously missed the recent memo from the Doherty Institute.

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Originally Posted by Eevo

something i found interesting, and thank to discomick for the idea
the effective reproduction number for the nsw outbreak is 1.34
the effective reproduction number for the vic outbreak is 1.36

those numbers are close enough to being the same. so the virus is spreading at the same rate.
this tells me that the effectiveness/ineffectiveness of the lockdown is the same in both states.

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You mean other than the complete disparity in numbers of new infections?

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Originally Posted by SpudHeadTed

So no Covid in Qld, SA, NT, WA, TAS, but everyone should follow Gladys' lead and then we should open the whole country up at effectively 56% vaccinated?

Brilliant! Then what will happen? ….not freedom. Mayhem…
Michael Pascoe: What happens next isn’t ‘freedom’ – it’s triage

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Says it all really:

"It is foolish to expect trust after pretending the situation was under control, that numbers would come down, then could come down, and now the full backflip with smiley face to suggest we are achieving what we’ve always wanted: Living with COVID, an example to the rest of Australia."

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Originally Posted by Tote

So when might be a good time for the sealed states to open up - 80% vaccinated, 90%, at some point there must be an opening of borders or we will see the scenario where the rest of the country is travelling internationally and fully open for business and state borders are still closed. I'm not sure that the population of those states would be so keen for isolation at that point in time.

Regards,
Tote

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if your after zero cases, then you/they will never open up. as even at 100% vaccinated, it still spreads, and we'll continually be importing cases into australia.
but your right, the population wont accept that.

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Originally Posted by Arapiles

You mean other than the complete disparity in numbers of new infections?

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the outbreaks started at different times, so its correct to expect disparity in daily cases.

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Originally Posted by Tote

So when might be a good time for the sealed states to open up - 80% vaccinated, 90%, at some point there must be an opening of borders or we will see the scenario where the rest of the country is travelling internationally and fully open for business and state borders are still closed. I'm not sure that the population of those states would be so keen for isolation at that point in time.

Regards,
Tote

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I would imagine that at least 80% of the TOTAL population vaccinated and thats in EVERY State would be a Reasonable point to think about opening domestic borders.
I don't know when the international borders should open given that Most of the popular destinations are poorly vaccinated/highly infectious at the moment.
As far as fully open for buisness goes I think that you will find that apart from NSW and VIC the rest of Australian commerce is doing pretty well due to thier border closures keeping infections at bay for the most part and allowing this to occur.