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Thread: Covid Mk ll

  1. #951
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    If itís the lockdown that working whatís happening in the most locked down city in the world? Thereís clearly something defective with the argument that vaccination does not stop spread
    Iíll do some research when Iím not on my phone
    Regards
    Tote
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  2. #952
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tote View Post
    If itís the lockdown that working whatís happening in the most locked down city in the world? Thereís clearly something defective with the argument that vaccination does not stop spread
    Iíll do some research when Iím not on my phone
    Regards
    Tote

    What's happening in Melbourne? People are ignoring the rules - probably in part because they've been told that vaccination prevents infection - and there were a heap of AFL grand final parties that gave it a big spike. Also, unlike in Sydney's LGAs and unlike here last year, the police are focussing on the anti-vax protests and not compliance. No ring of steel this time.

    And Melbourne's vaccination rates aren't far behind NSW's, so I doubt that's the reason.

    I'd also suspect that that "most locked down city" tag isn't particularly accurate, but it does make good headlines for the Murdoch press.
    Arapiles
    2014 D4 HSE

  3. #953
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tote View Post
    Thereís clearly something defective with the argument that vaccination does not stop spread
    Not at all, it's just not absolute. The vaccines don't and won't stop spread, what they do is reduce viral loads in vaccinated people resulting in a lower probability of infecting contacts. NSW is a great example of a combination of lockdown and vaccination affecting the spread. I'd expect case numbers to start to increase as lockdowns lift but the evidence (from every other country that has trodden this path) is that hospitalisations and death among the vaccinated will stay low.

    What will happen is a very small proportion of people who are fully vaccinated will reach ICU and die and those fatalities will be trumped up by the media and conspiracy theorists to "prove" that vaccination doesn't work.

    In other news, my in-laws from Scotland are currently visiting my other sister in-law in Manchester, and she's now tested positive. The next week should be interesting to see if she infects her husband and parents.

  4. #954
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    It's not over when we're all vaccinated ....

    The UK is slightly more vaccinated than Australia and slightly more so than Germany: respective daily new cases on Thursday 14th October were:


    • Australia - 2,688




    • Germany - 11,756 new cases




    • UK - 45,000 new cases


    The UK infection rate is apparently also 8 - 12 times higher than France, Italy and Spain.

    The reason is that the UK has abandoned all restrictions, whereas the other European countries still require social distancing, masks and vaccine passports.

    In other words, we will have to accept a new "Covid normal" for some time yet unless we want to have say, 20,000 new cases a day.

    UK’s high Covid case rates buck trend as western Europe outperforms east | Coronavirus | The Guardian

    BTW, this also shows that high vaccination rates don't automatically cause low infection rates - the difference in rates is whether or not other preventative steps are maintained.

    The outlier appears to be Britain, which Ė though now overtaken by multiple EU states Ė has vaccinated a similar share of its population to most western European countries, but has an infection rate that more closely resembles those in the east.
    Arapiles
    2014 D4 HSE

  5. #955
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    The figures quoting blanket vaccination rates across Australia are skewed....

    UK vaccination rate is 66.7 Covid is endemic across the whole country leading to a case rate of 45000 per day. It is fair to say that using the whole population to calculate infection rates is reasonable. There are also no restrictions like the ones in NSW or Victoria currently

    Aust Vaccination rate is 54.9 BUT covid is only endemic in a proportion of that population IE mostly NSW and Victoria. NSW is 80% vaccinated, Victoria is 66% vaccinated.

    UK has a case rate of 44,000 positive daily cases for a population of 68 Million people - 647 cases per million people

    Victoria has a case rate of 2000 per day on a population of 6.68 Million - 299 cases per million people

    NSW has a case rate of 400 per day in a population of 8.166 -48 Cases per million people

    It will be interesting to see what happens in NSW as restrictions ease further - that is why there is still a ban on Sydney people visiting regional NSW until 1 November to give the regions a chance to get to 80+% vaccination.

    Again that vaccination rate must be doing something to slow infections.......

    Regards,
    Tote
    Go home, your igloo is on fire....
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  6. #956
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tote View Post
    The figures quoting blanket vaccination rates across Australia are skewed....

    UK vaccination rate is 66.7 Covid is endemic across the whole country leading to a case rate of 45000 per day. It is fair to say that using the whole population to calculate infection rates is reasonable. There are also no restrictions like the ones in NSW or Victoria currently

    Aust Vaccination rate is 54.9 BUT covid is only endemic in a proportion of that population IE mostly NSW and Victoria. NSW is 80% vaccinated, Victoria is 66% vaccinated.

    UK has a case rate of 44,000 positive daily cases for a population of 68 Million people - 647 cases per million people

    Victoria has a case rate of 2000 per day on a population of 6.68 Million - 299 cases per million people

    NSW has a case rate of 400 per day in a population of 8.166 -48 Cases per million people

    It will be interesting to see what happens in NSW as restrictions ease further - that is why there is still a ban on Sydney people visiting regional NSW until 1 November to give the regions a chance to get to 80+% vaccination.

    Again that vaccination rate must be doing something to slow infections.......

    Regards,
    Tote
    You're right, but within Vic and NSW the majority of active cases are localised and this is being managed by specific lockdowns.

    The vacc rate is what is allowing states to ease restrictions whilst still having other measures to deal with problem locales to keep a lid on hospital admissions.

    DL

  7. #957
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arapiles View Post
    Also, a lot of the European countries have had a drop in life expectancy because of Covid deaths - we and NZ possibly have had an increase in life expectancy ...

    Most countries in the world have had excess deaths due to Covid: Australia and New Zealand have had negative excess deaths, that is we've had fewer deaths than we normally do.

    Pretty amazing and it completely vindicates the decisions made in terms of quarantine and elimination/suppression of Covid:

    The pandemic’s true death toll | The Economist

    In case you can't see it:


    OFFICIAL COVID-19 DEATHS PER 100,000 ESTIMATED EXCESS DEATHS PER 100,000 ESTIMATE V OFFICIAL
    Asia 1,152,403 24.6 3.6m to 12m 78 to 260 +700%
    Latin America and Caribbean 1,508,281 230.0 2m to 2.3m 310 to 350 +50%
    Europe (incl. EU) 1,263,513 168.7 2m to 2.1m 270 to 280 +60%
    Africa 215,310 15.7 870k to 2.3m 64 to 170 +800%
    North America 752,687 202.9 860k to 1m 230 to 270 +20%
    European Union 782,975 175.1 820k to 880k 180 to 200 +9%
    Oceania 2,490 5.8 −8.5k to 11k −20 to 25 −300%

    For Australia:

    OFFICIAL
    COVID-19 DEATHS
    PER 100,000 ESTIMATED
    EXCESS DEATHS
    PER 100,000 ESTIMATE V OFFICIAL
    Australia 1,532 5.9 −4.6k to 100 −18 to 400m −300%
    ...... At the other end of the table, a handful of countries have actually had fewer people die during the pandemic than in previous years.

    ..... In cases where death rates fell below their pre-pandemic normsóbecause covid-19 claimed relatively few victims, while lifestyle changes lowered the toll from other causes such as fluóthis number is negative.
    Arapiles
    2014 D4 HSE

  8. #958
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    Really - stats at 10 paces .
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