Thread: Covid Mk ll

Originally Posted by DiscoDB

As you expected, big drop in the R number for NZ today - down to 0.77 and showing that you have passed the peak.

https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html

The trend is your friend.

I have a feeling 28 on the backdrop of 49, 75 then 49 is anomalous. Great if it sets off a quick drop off but going from 49 to 28 just seems at odds with what the epidemiologists have been saying to expect... a long tail. All the pressers have made a point to expect ups and downs. I guess down so much is the same as up so much from 49 to 75 in terms of any inherent variability rates.

Yes - I should have said “the trend is your friend until it bends”…

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

NSW announces 1431 cases and 12 deaths, with predictions the worst is yet to come in October and daily cases could reach 3-4000.

Qld, WA, SA, NT and Tasmania announce zero cases.

Who gets criticised? Qld and WA for saying their first priority is to keep people safe.

Anyone see the problem right there?

The booming Covid-free export economies of WA and Qld are funding the nation, while NSW and Victoria sink deeper into recession.

Maybe the best thing for the national economy would be if WA and Qld kept their borders closed indefinitely until the whole nation reaches at least 90% vaxed.

Hope we do better than the most (Pfizer-only) Vaxxed nation on Earth, Israel.... They need a third jab.... guessing when that fails, a Fourth, then fifth ?

Originally Posted by 350RRC

And would that 70% be of eligible or total? Gets blurred by the pollie's narratives at will.

who knows, it has been politicsed yet again by the incumbents

nsw broke the agreement when they didnt do a proper lockdown so it amuses the crap out of me that they blame everyone else...

The chief tone death agitator right now must be the Prime Minister who is preparing to claim a victory in a lead up to the next election when 80% of eligible voters are vaccinated.

Getting into a debate on state borders opening when we are in the midst of the worse outbreak in Australia since this Pandemic started is totally wrong. And just bad for mental health right now.

I am sure I heard Greg Hunt say today that whilst we will have deaths, at least more people will be able to go to funerals. Really…….

We do need to learn to live with this and setting targets for the easing of restrictions based on vaccination levels is appropriate as we move into the Endemic phase.

But there is a time and place to have the debate on when state borders should open and it is not now (no matter which side of the border you sit on).

.

Originally Posted by incisor

who knows, it has been politicsed yet again by the incumbents

nsw broke the agreement when they didnt do a proper lockdown so it amuses the crap out of me that they blame everyone else...

Just like Victoria didn't do a proper lockdown either?



Regards,
Tote

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

The booming Covid-free export economies of WA and Qld are funding the nation, while NSW and Victoria sink deeper into recession.

Victoria isn't in recession.

There's an expectation that the Victorian economy will contract in the September quarter because - unsurprisingly, during a lockdown - there's been a drop in economic activity, but no-one expects that to persist in the December quarter. And the definition of a recession is two quarters in which the economy shrinks.