Rain

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by JDNSW

I'm afraid that I have to conclude that the forecasters are optimists.

John

---

Unfortunately I think they are driven by liabilities :(

After speaking to a couple of the forecasters from the Sydney office, the BoM copped a bit after the 1998 Sydney to Hobart. I think there was a change in direction - If it looks like theres a slim chance it might happen they now forecast it. Unfortunately I think it's becoming a bit "cry wolf".

At work we use the special fire weather forecasts a lot (strangely :)) generally they are pretty much spot on, but during major fire activity then theres a tendency to be very conservative with the forecasts, and we get wind/temp predictions that are probably much closer to the worse case and not the most likely case.

Generally though I reckon our forecasters are doing a great job and forecast reliability is improving all the time, as the guys from the bureau said though a couple of degrees shift in the wind can make the difference between it raining in Nowra or Newcastle.

Martyn

I don't know if there is anything in it, but my father always reckoned that forecasts improved dramatically in the early 1940s with the demands of military aviation in the war - and then dropped to almost pre-war levels after 1945 as observers and forecasters' working hours (and probably motivation) dropped back to peacetime levels. And never regained the accuracy they had during the war.

One of the interesting features we have on the ABC local radio every Friday morning is an interview with the man responsible for forecasting weather for the Siding Spring Observatory. He weighs up the various available forecasts, including ones not available to the public, such as the firefighting ones, and gives his estimate of the most likely outcome. But he does not pretend to any accuracy past about two days.

John

No rain here for awhile of any consequence, starting to dry out, rains in Orange forgets to head north.

Last lot of water bought three weeks ago @ $250 for 17,000 litres, fifth buy in 2 years.

Austar weather channel forecast for rain over four days soon...we'll see.

13mm overnight, started about the time I went to bed. Even looks like there could be some more today.

John

Maybe I spoke too early - the sun's shining now!

John

29.5mm o/night here. We're so lucky that we had pretty consistent falls from March through to August, with 177mm in June proving invaluable for spring and getting our little Pages River (a Hunter tributary) flowing for the first time in 18 months. September with only 5mm and the wind was a bit scary, but 49mm last month helped, and now this rain o/night is a blessing. It may even get the river flowing a little again.
It helps to be tucked into the lee side of the range, it really encourages any moisture present to be liberated.

Hope you get some more out your way JD.

about 35mm in the gauge when i got home on thursday :D
then we got another 65mm thursday night:D
thats about 140mm in the last week,even the dams looking good:D

Jd
its stopped here at the moment, but there is more to come, my frogs must have been singing for 'your' rain

13 is a good start point, hope you get more



john

You need me down there to visit the Zoo again John. That should get the rain out :o:eek::D

Well JD,
i hope your getting rain now, the frogs are singing again.




john