Thanks once more for the input guys. I really appreciate it.
Firstly, the good news - I was able to spot the "EP" mark with the endoscope, so I set up a dial indicator on exhaust valve #1 to check valve timing. It's not quite dead on, but it's close - right as the EP mark goes past, the exhaust valve drops a tiny bit more (about 10 thousandths of an inch) and then starts coming back up. In my mind, this is enough for the engine to run properly - any confirmation/denial here would be great.
The capacitor (or condenser, whichever you choose to call it) had the right amount of capacitance according to my multimeter, although I didn't test leakage resistance - not sure how to do that, advice here is also welcome. I decided to convert it to electronic ignition at some later date after it's running, since the amount of rewiring needed for a positive earth system was higher than I'd expected. It seems better to change just one thing at a time.
My coil looks OK (3.7 Ohms across the SW and CB terminals), which makes sense since I've previously had that coil running fine (and the spark looked good with the plug out). A general question here, though - how old is too old? I don't know if it's the original coil from 1959, but it's definitely period-correct, and almost certainly over thirty years old. How long do those old-school oil-filled Lucas units last?
The bad news is that I'm really starting to suspect a vacuum leak after ruling out the above. Instead of a smoke machine I'm just going to apply ~3psi of air pressure and start spraying with soapy water - I've got an air regulator coming in the post, I'll be ready to go as soon as it arrives.
Thanks to everyone who's suggested things, and keep the ideas coming :-)
- Will


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