Thread: Electric vehicles, progress (from a marketing perspective)

Originally Posted by JDNSW

In my view 2025 is a very unlikely date for EVs to replace conventional cars in the market. It is barely possible, but very unlikely.

There are two major issues -

Conventional cars have over a hundred years of experience behind their production, and for most producers, a lot of depreciated machinery. While it is possible to produce an EV that is essentially a re-engined version of an existing car, this is not going to be competitive with one designed from the ground up, either in performance or producibility; a battery bank has very different characteristics to a fuel tank, for example. For a long term solution, the whole production process has to be redesigned, and while a few manufacturers have started this, most have not, and six years to achieve it is, in my view, very optimistic.

Secondly, mass production of suitable batteries is in its infancy, and capacity is also being required for power supply applications. And if, as you suggest, battery technology is developing at an exponential rate, this would mean that newly built production facilities are likely to have to be redesigned for quite different technology - hardly a recipe for rapid growth in production capacity.

But, in sixty years of close interest in EVs, I have heard this sort of statement many times - and will believe it when I see it! Even if breakthrough technology were to be demonstrated tomorrow, for it to go to production rates able to supply the world's motor industries with batteries for most cars within six years would require a development speed unparalleled in industrial history. (I just know someone will suggest "mobile phones" but you need to realise that cars mass about a thousand times what phones do, and that mobile phones are built on electronics technology going back to the 1950's - with capabilities defines by "Moore's Law", proposed in 1965. No such growth has even been suggested in battery technology.)

We now have batteries that are capable of producing usable EVs, and there are a few on the market. They will not replace ICE vehicles until they are cost comparable and readily available. Neither of these criteria are anywhere near today. Even if these criteria could be met within six years, I think that it is impossible for production to be built up that quickly.

Exactly.

And the other issue is where will all the power come from?
EV's use a huge amount of power.
We have seen what happened in SA,and Vic,during the recent hot weather.
And no it won't all come from solar or some form of battery storage system.
To put it in perspective,an EV that charges for 6 hours or more,will use more power than a 9KW split system AC unit,for the 6 hours.
These'quick' chargers need well over 50 amps,single phase.No domestic property without a major power upgrade would handle that sort of load.

There are lots of rumblings about shutting all these coal fired power stations,but in reality we will need a lot more power than has ever been generated,if Ev's become the norm.

Ev's also won't suit many,think of the many dragging around large vans,often in outback areas.
Tradies,and others with fully loaded vehicles,often with trailers.These vehicles need to go all day,every day.

Sure,EV's may suit a few that only do a few K's a week,but many do hundreds,even thousands.

Then there is all the power upgrades for all theses charging points,all over the country,a massive amount of infrastructure thats needed,and who is going to do it all,and fund it?

In reality,Ev's being the vehicle of choice is many,many, years away,probably 10 to 20,at least,and a pipe dream for some.

JD, why EV's will become mainstream faster than you think, weather Australia is ready or not, We have no Automotive manufacturing industry and we are dependent on what overseas markets want .

China has massive incentives for EV ownership , and is the worlds largest market , They are not buying Diesel cars any more and hence JLR's current financial issues , Europe , USA and India and the rest of Asia are going ahead with EV in leaps and bounds.

Of course ICE cars will still be produced but they will become more expensive because of the smaller scale of numbers , and EV's will become cheaper . Its inevitable.

Coal power stations will be worn out and closed by 2040, because no one will fund an asset likely to become stranded, so just forget the whole coal thing, it's going, going, soon gone.
Governments will increase the existing subsidies ($3000 grants for batteries in Qld right now, plus low cost loans for solar). Battery banks with solar will be literally everywhere - who would buy a house that can't generate it's own solar power? No-one, very soon.
Just as everyone charges their mobile phones, so everyone will charge their house banks and their vehicles - it will just be normal.
Australia is WAY behind the rest of the developed world on renewable energy, way, way behind.
For example, even in backward Myanmar, the capital Yangon is powered by hydro - I've seen it first hand myself.
We need to catch up fast.

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

Coal power stations will be worn out and closed by 2040, because no one will fund an asset likely to become stranded, so just forget the whole coal thing, it's going, going, soon gone.
Governments will increase the existing subsidies ($3000 grants for batteries in Qld right now, plus low cost loans for solar). Battery banks with solar will be literally everywhere - who would buy a house that can't generate it's own solar power? No-one, very soon.
Just as everyone charges their mobile phones, so everyone will charge their house banks and their vehicles - it will just be normal.
Australia is WAY behind the rest of the developed world on renewable energy, way, way behind.
For example, even in backward Myanmar, the capital Yangon is powered by hydro - I've seen it first hand myself.
We need to catch up fast.

People that can barely afford to get into home ownership already won’t turn down a deal because it hasn’t got solar or batteries or could afford the extra money that currently costs - and that makes up a fair whack of the population.

I’m not saying it’s a bad idea, just that it won’t be ‘very soon’ but maybe in several decades as localised power production will be the norm once large centralised coal power has gone the way of the dodo.

Originally Posted by goingbush

JD, why EV's will become mainstream faster than you think, weather Australia is ready or not, We have no Automotive manufacturing industry and we are dependent on what overseas markets want .

China has massive incentives for EV ownership , and is the worlds largest market , They are not buying Diesel cars any more and hence JLR's current financial issues , Europe , USA and India and the rest of Asia are going ahead with EV in leaps and bounds.

Of course ICE cars will still be produced but they will become more expensive because of the smaller scale of numbers , and EV's will become cheaper . Its inevitable.

Of course Australia is dependent on what overseas manufacturers produce and can only buy what they produce. Yes, China is the world's largest market, but neither imports nor exports a significant proportion of its market/production. This may well change in the future, of course, but again, I think six years is unlikely. The second largest market is the USA, and it also supplies a tiny proportion of the Australian market - and their exports are a tiny proportion of the home market.

Yes, (most) manufacturers are planning EVs, or at least say they are, but unless I am mistaken, no major manufacturer supplying Australia has any actual plans to make EVs a major part of their production within six years. What we have is aspirations, such as that by Landrover that "new designs" will have electric or hybrid versions. Statements by VW are perhaps the most ambitious - but does anyone actually believe anything they say today?

Scarry-

I don't think there is going to be a problem with supplying power, especially as I think six years is optimistic. The grid itself has had a lot of 'gold plating' in recent years, meaning that problems in distribution are unlikely. And as DiscoMick points out, coal fired power stations are on the way out, and will be replaced by either renewables or gas. (Myanmar is not a good example for Australia - for a start, they have mountains, and they also have a military government, so no problems with conservationists preventing dam construction as in Australia. There is very little potential for hydro in Australia, and most of what is still untapped is off limits.)

But home ownership is decreasing in Australia, with both renting and apartments becoming the future for a lot of people. This means that whether people buy houses without their own power becomes less relevant. (As many know, I have been on stand alone power for 25 years.)

Originally Posted by JDNSW

Scarry-

I don't think there is going to be a problem with supplying power, especially as I think six years is optimistic. The grid itself has had a lot of 'gold plating' in recent years, meaning that problems in distribution are unlikely. And as DiscoMick points out, coal fired power stations are on the way out, and will be replaced by either renewables or gas. )

But home ownership is decreasing in Australia, with both renting and apartments becoming the future for a lot of people. This means that whether people buy houses without their own power becomes less relevant. (As many know, I have been on stand alone power for 25 years.)

We will have to agree to disagree,can't see the power being available,weekends paper,large solar plant in SA now not going ahead.The company that was going to build it, has pulled out.Now it goes to tender again,these processes,and then the building of the plant takes years.

Are there any others actually on the drawing board,or being built?

Gas maybe an option,instead of coal,but reliable,long term,large renewable sources of power are a fair way off,as you have said,more than 6 yrs away.

And thinking all home owners are going to race out in even the next 10yrs,and purchase solar panels,and large batteries to suit,is a dream.
As others have said,many live week to week,and are flat out paying their mortgage off.
Some may,but most may not.Renters definitely won't.It will be up to the landlords,and they won't be keen to provide them.

Industry is probably the main user of power,they won't put up with it being unreliable,as i have said before,like what happened recently in SA.

Don't get me wrong,i am all for renewables,but in reality, in this country,its a long way off before it can be relied on as a consistent source of power to replace the existing power stations.

Agreed,home ownership,unfortunately,is decreasing.
A sad situation for many.

Getting off topic,if the govt changes,there may actually be less domestic rental properties around,which will make it more difficult for these renters,who do it pretty tough at the moment.We will have to wait and see.But thats a topic for another thread.

Oh,and comparing charging a mobile phone to charging EV's is like comparing apples and oranges,there is no comparison at all,apart that they both use power,one uses milli amps,where the other uses a huge amount of power.
Sure they both rely on power to charge.

It's a big country and the wind is always blowing in numerous places.
Battery banks are going in all around the place and it's happening faster and faster.
Why would someone buy a house without solar to cut the power bills when there is another with solar for sale nearby? It's a marketing advantage.
This is going to happen rapidly.

Originally Posted by scarry

We will have to agree to disagree,can't see the power being available,weekends paper,large solar plant in SA now not going ahead.The company that was going to build it, has pulled out.Now it goes to tender again,these processes,and then the building of the plant takes years.

Are there any others actually on the drawing board,or being built?

Gas maybe an option,instead of coal,but reliable,long term,large renewable sources of power are a fair way off,as you have said,more than 6 yrs away.

And thinking all home owners are going to race out in even the next 10yrs,and purchase solar panels,and large batteries to suit,is a dream.
As others have said,many live week to week,and are flat out paying their mortgage off.
Some may,but most may not.Renters definitely won't.It will be up to the landlords,and they won't be keen to provide them.

Industry is probably the main user of power,they won't put up with it being unreliable,as i have said before,like what happened recently in SA.

Don't get me wrong,i am all for renewables,but in reality, in this country,its a long way off before it can be relied on as a consistent source of power to replace the existing power stations.

Agreed,home ownership,unfortunately,is decreasing.
A sad situation for many.

Getting off topic,if the govt changes,there may actually be less domestic rental properties around,which will make it more difficult for these renters,who do it pretty tough at the moment.We will have to wait and see.But thats a topic for another thread.

Oh,and comparing charging a mobile phone to charging EV's is like comparing apples and oranges,there is no comparison at all,apart that they both use power,one uses milli amps,where the other uses a huge amount of power.
Sure they both rely on power to charge.

Of course the power is Available. Its well known that the amount of Electricity consumed to produce & refine oil / petrol is equivalent to what would be used to power EV for the same distance as the electricity used to produce petrol. ( but without the vehicle emissions)

So: A , no extra electricity is needed , and B The power station Emissions are not being added too by EV's

But you will argue Australia no longer produces or refines petrol / diesel , but it used to and we had the Electric capacity for that . Oh wait We used to build cars too, that takes a huge baseload, we had the Electricity for that , AND for oil production at the same time, as well as many other heavy industry that has moved overseas.

On top of that we now have more wind / solar / hydro & battery .

And as More & more people buy EV's , those people will install solar / battery to take advantage of free motoring.

There is / will be more than enough Electricity. So what if theres power shedding on hot days , it wont affect those with solar / batteries.

Convert to EV and stop subsidising terrorisim by importing middle east oil . Also if we are not dependent on fuel imports we will be less vulnerable to international disruption.