Thread: Nuclear power and changes

I waffle a bit- Directors at BHP have not responded to me which is not surprising I think.


Below related to News about to a Chat from China to BHP.



I think we all know BHP will be fantastic for everything outlined above. one aspect China did not specifically bring up publicly as BHP is incredibly gun shy on the topic.

Seven Nuclear reactors under construction today in China. Two come on line this year and 4 more starting construction this year.

The Growth rate in Nuclear Energy in China via WNA has more than Doubled every decade since 1990. The rate of growth is accelerating. China requires stable U308 supplies. Africa, Kazatrprom urnanium and JV with PDN and Cameco do not cover China's planned growth in Nuclear Energy.
WNA cut "A draft of the 14^th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) released in March 2021 showed government plans to reach 70 GWe gross of nuclear capacity by the end of 2025." Its "53,181 MWe" today? With France, USA, Canada, Japan, UK and others racing to restart, extend life of existing Nuclear plant and or the race for Small Nuclear reactors Directors of BHP may be avoiding publicity on the major role BHP will play a part of in U308 supply shortly.

Small Nuclear Reactors (SMR)
The UK SMR plans as does Canadian, USA and China are in the SMR ace as well
"CNNC’s multi-purpose small modular reactor, the ACP100, or LingLong One. The preliminary design was completed in 2014, based on the larger ACP (and CNP) units and a preliminary safety analysis report (PSAR) has been completed. The basic design was completed early in 2016, and CNNC said that the NDRC approved the ACP100S design for marine use late in 2016. The design took four years and was funded to CNY 700 million. In April 2016 the IAEA presented CNNC with its report from the generic reactor safety review process undertaken over ten months. In 2016 CNNC subsidiary China Nuclear Power Engineering Corp (CNPE) submitted an expression of interest to the UK government based on its ACP100+ design. By 2030 CNNC expects the ACP100 to be standardized as an advanced SMR, with large-scale construction.

It has passive safety features and will normally be installed underground. Seismic tolerance is 300 Gal. It has 57 fuel assemblies 2.15m tall and integral steam generators (320ºC input), so that the whole steam supply system is produced and shipped as a single reactor module. It has passive cooling for decay heat removal. Its 385 MWt produces about 125 MWe, and power plants comprising two to six of these are envisaged, with 60-year design life and 24-month refuelling."

It is also a SMR race within China "ot to be outdone by CNNC in the small modular field, CGN has two small ACPR designs: an ACPR100 and an ACPR50S, both with passive cooling for decay heat and 60-year design life. Both have standard type fuel assemblies and fuel enriched to <5% with burnable poison giving 30 month refueling. The ACPR100 is an integral PWR, 450 MWt, 140 MWe, having 69 fuel assemblies. Reactor pressure vessel is 17m high and 4.4 m inside diameter, operating at 310°C. It is designed as a module in larger plant and would be installed underground."

I understand Sept 2023 will see the bi annual Nuclear Fuel report " "
World Nuclear Association has published reports on nuclear fuel supply and demand at roughly twoyearly intervals since its foundation in 1975. The 20th edition of the Nuclear Fuel Report was released in September 2021

To the best of my limited knowledge and information from Nuclear Fuel/Energy experts I follow none of the current under supply forecasts include the demand by SMR or the safer more enriched fuels for use in Current reactors which need more u308.

The Box Seat is some times just sitting on one of the best under utilized resources of course. Perhaps that is BHP Directors and CEO's plan.

I like some aspects of Greenpeace. I do not like any unsustainable hunting, fishing, farming or ...

Dirty Dangerous and lots more.

Conflagration of Nuclear energy and weapons is clearly a strategy they employ - I do not like Nuclear weapons

A Nuclear Physicist review of Greenpeace anti Nuclear Energy.

H20 ANZAC day - run and still have time spare so SORRY

Chinese Nuclear build is 10 per year to meet their stated goal!

Just looking at the mess in Yunnan hydro- "But so far this year, its average rainfall has plunged to a five-year low of 34.6 millimetres (1.36 inches), compared with an average of about 98 millimetres during the same period of previous years, according to data from the local meteorological bureau. Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower, a state-owned player that operates major hydropower stations in the province, said that global warming and extreme weather have increased uncertainties about water inflows, and its first-quarter hydropower generation accordingly fell 11.4 per cent from a year earlier."

That has caused an essential need "Aluminium production " to be curtailed..

Back to 10 per year claim by China. Historically USA was building 9-10 in a year!!! That was well before the much more advanced computerized engineering and other significant technical advancements!

The prior China goal was " Chinese government has set ambitious goals for expanding nuclear power. The 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020) calls for 58 GW of installed nuclear power capacity and an additional 30 GW under construction by 2020. (As of July 2019, China had roughly 46 GW of capacity installed nuclear power capacity and 12 GW under construction.)"

Missed by a whisker and several issues explained that minor miss.

"China is planning at least 150 new reactors in the next 15 years, more than the rest of the world has built in the past 35."
China’s climate goals hinge on a US$440bn nuclear buildout - Taipei Times

It is not really essential for u308 price if China gets 10, 9, 8, 7 new Nuclear plants built per year. I think they may. I also think the many SMR which are planned in the USA and many other places
SMR plans even here in our plans for Nuclear submarines - Shhh don't tell the Government or the Antis who happily use nuclear tech for xrays, Ct scans and cancer treatments whilst frequently saying nuclear power is evil

I like Hydro, Solar, Wind and Hydrogen/Ammonia..... The hydro energy issues in China and USA are foreseeable not just an anomaly. That we need large reliable C02 free power is also known. Having heads in sand thinking just more Hydro, Solar, Wind or batteries will suffice is in my thoughts very un science or evidence based policy.

China’s Yunnan warns energy crisis could persist amid drought conditions, with a cap on smelting | South China Morning Post

SMR use of U308 is going to be BIG yet not yet accounted for in UXC demand forecasts is in my view a kicker plus we will see in our share prices as soon as some wake up.

"China completes first step in advanced nuclear reactor project by finishing core module

• Linglong One in Hainan will be the world’s first commercial onshore small modular reactor when completed in 2026
• The technology can meet multiple demands and be used for desalination – potentially supplying power and fresh water to small islands

" South China Morning Post today! It is "ACP100 multi-purpose small modular reactor (SMR)"

So many are talking about bifurcation of the Uranium fuel market. Kazakhstan huge new contracts and JV with both China and Russia is in my view good for us. The current largest U308 supply is being sewn up and many of those uncontracted and who have run down their fuel supply will be waking up before the likely new huge new SMR demand kicks in. I have no doubt that extra new demand will occur. Not that that is needed due to all the existing factors!

The MOST read list on the ACP100 link is fun to review!

Most read

Operating permit issued for Chinese molten salt reactor

EDF begins permitting process for two new reactors at Penly

UK-US partnership for nuclear fusion rockets

Alabama site chosen for USNC reactor factory

HTMR-100 team aim for pebble bed SMR in South Africa

Polish government approves first nuclear power plant

Finnish SMR targets district heating market

ITER delays revision of project's timeline

Permitting submissions made for New Brunswick SMR

Notes
UXC:
UxC: UxC - The World's Leading Source of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Market Intelligence and Analysis

Kazakhstan :

• Kazakhstan has 12% of the world's uranium resources and in 2021 produced about 21,800 tU.
• In 2009 it became the world's leading uranium producer, with almost 28% of world production. In 2019, Kazakhstan produced 43% of the world's uranium.
• A single Russian nuclear power reactor operated from 1972 to 1999, generating electricity and desalinating water.
• Kazakhstan has a major plant making nuclear fuel pellets and aims eventually to sell value-added fuel rather than just uranium. A fuel fabrication plant is being built with 49% Chinese equity.

NOT investment advice. you get burned buying rubbish from investment nutters

"May 25 Annual General Meeting approved a long-term supply contract with a subsidiary of China National Nuclear Corp. (CNNC), the ultimate value of which is more than 50% of the current total book value of Kazatomprom's assets. The shareholder vote "allows concluding other transactions" with CNNC Overseas, said Kazatomprom, as long as they don't exceed 200% of the total book value of Kazatomprom's assets.
China already accounted for on average 35% of Kazatomprom's total sales revenue over the last five years. But the newly approved CNNC Overseas contract cements China's place as Kazatomprom's top customer." Link

Looks like China is wrapping up a LOT of u308. with its 4 plus per year building program for Nuclear Reactors it will need it!

"A 'Backdoor Deal'The enormous shift in Rosatom's position was first revealed in Kazatomprom's recently released 2022 operating results, which declared that there was "a change in the composition of the participants of Stepnogorsk Mining and Chemical Plant LLP," which now includes Uranium One Group JSC and NFC Logistics JSC, two Rosatom subsidiaries. These subsidiaries now own 100% of Stepnogorsk Mining, previously owned by Degevol UK. This, in turn, gives Rosatom a 49% stake in the Budenovskoye JV, which is building out an operation to mine the Budenovskoye-6 and -7 deposits. Kazatomprom continues to hold a 51% stake in the operation, which is set to come on line rapidly: production is expected to begin in 2024 and by 2026 ramp up to an annual output of more than 15 million pounds of U3O8 per year over the coming decades.

The interesting bit about both of the above is that Kazatomprom is by far the current biggest U308 supply with Canada a long way back. Link

Biggest users are USA, China, France then Russia. It seems very clear China and Russia are making very sure they have enough supply longer term. China has also build a very large storage location near the China Kazakhstan boarder.

South Korea expansion and building in Saudi Arabia added a question for supply. Old news was "Uranium for fuel comes from Kazakhstan, Canada, Australia, Niger and elsewhere – 4730 tU being required in 2017, with 5300 tU anticipated by 2020. KEPCO, The state-owned Korea Resources Corporation (KORES) has declared its intention to invest heavily in uranium and copper mines in Africa and South America. In 2009, KORES acquired Trendfield Holdings' 5% stake in Société des mines d’Azelik (SOMINA), a joint venture between the government of Niger (33%) and SinoU (37.2%), which owns the Azelik/Teguidda mine in Niger.A Korean consortium comprising KORES, Hanwha Corporation, Korea Electric Power Corporation, and SK Energy in 2007 acquired a 50% in CanAlaska Uranium's Cree East project located in the south-eastern portion of the Athabasca Basin in northern Saskatchewan, Canada. However, in May 2017, CanAlaska announced it had agreed to acquire the Korean consortium's 50% interest in the project through a buyback agreement.
In 2010, KEPCO signed an agreement with France's Areva under which the South Korean company took a 10% stake in the Imouraren uranium mine in Niger. Work on the site was suspended in 2015 "pending more favourable market conditions". The operating company is 66.65% owned by Orano Expansion (86.5% Orano, 13.5% KEPCO/KHNP) and 33.35% by the government of Niger..
In June 2009, KEPCO bought a 17% stake in Denison Mines and entered into an offtake agreement up to 20% of Denison's annual U3O8 production, KEPCO's stake in Denison was transferred to KEPCO's KHNP subsidiary in 2016 and, as of December 2017, stood at 10.42%. KHNP is also the majority member of the Korea Waterbury Uranium Limited Partnership (KWULP) consortium, which (as of December 2017) holds a 40% stake in Denison's Waterbury Lake Uranium Corporation and 35.78% of Denison's Waterbury Lake Uranium Limited Partnership." LINK


I wonder if the Long Term contracting China and Russia have started will take off

NOT Investment advice!!

Bloody poms- Blaming them for my over posting

Small and fast or fast like south korea or China ?

Choices are important

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

"LONDON (Reuters) - Britain on Tuesday opened a competition to develop small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), such as those being developed by Rolls-Royce, as it launched its new Great British Nuclear body designed to help drive the expansion of projects in the country.Britain is aiming to increase its nuclear power capacity to 24 gigawatts (GW) by 2050 as part of efforts to meet climate targets and boost energy security. That would meet around a quarter of projected electricity demand, up sharply from about 14% today.
Large new nuclear projects, with high upfront costs, have struggled to attract financing and the government hopes some older plants could be replaced by a fleet of SMRs which can be made in factories, with lower costs and faster construction.
Companies can, from Tuesday, register their interest in the government’s SMR competition. The Great British Nuclear body, also launched on Tuesday, will select technologies that have met the criteria in the Autumn.


The competition "could result in billions of pounds of public and private sector investment," Secretary of State for Energy Security, Grant Shapps said."

"

• Great British Nuclear to drive rapid expansion of nuclear power at an unprecedented scale and pace
• government kickstarts competition for game-changing small modular reactor (SMR) technology, which could result in billions of pounds of public and private sector investment in SMR projects
• plans will boost energy security, create cheaper power and grow the economy - creating better-paid jobs and opportunity right across the country

"
British nuclear revival to move towards energy independence - GOV.UK

"Green[COLOR=rgba(84,84,84,var(--tw-text-opacity))]New Energy[/COLOR]
[COLOR=rgba(0,0,0,var(--tw-text-opacity))]World’s Biggest Nuclear Power Plant Being Planned in Canada

• Bruce Power to study adding 4.8 gigawatts to Ontario facility
• Demand for nuclear is growing in battle against climate change

[/COLOR]
"

The background is interesting. "The Green Energy Act (GEA), formally the Green Energy and Green Economy Act, 2009, introduced in the Ontario legislature on February 23, 2009 and later repealed on January 1, 2019"


I like wind and solar power. They are suitable for some applications! They are NOT suitable to provide 24/7 power all the time or even most of the time. The change in Ontario Canada is also likely to happen in Germany I suspect. 8 closed reactors in Germany can be restarted once to the people in Germany say enough is enough to the blinkered biased current leadership

News is always an indicator of sentiment?

Canada’s nuclear drive picks up speed has a cost and uptime (Capacity Factor) data which is more than supportive via evidence not opinions. The Negative types who keep shouting loudly thier opinions "Nuclear energy cost too much and takes too long" should take notes. I bet they won't




Source: Independently Electricity System Operator data, Ministry of Energy, Ontario Energy Board (OE Regulated Pricing Plan (RPP) Pricing Report (November 2022).

"An affordable, reliable energy supply

Over 90 per cent of the electricity generated in Ontario in 2021 was emissions-free. Nuclear energy provided approximately 55 per cent of Ontario’s electricity generation, and hydroelectric stations provided approximately 23 per cent of Ontario’s electricity generation. Nuclear and hydropower are Ontario’s reliable sources of round-the-clock “baseload” power. The remainder of the electricity supply comes from a mix of natural gas, wind, solar and bioenergy."

That is from Published plans and annual reports 2022–2023: Ministry of Energy | ontario.ca