Grid can go 75% renewable

[Homestar]

Off peak hot water loads have dropped considerably over the last decade but still account for a massive use of energy when they kick in.

We see this a lot when we have to run large towns on generators over night - day time loads can be around half that of the night time peak - we generally have to double installation capacity if we need to do an overnight job anywhere. And even though the time clocks are all a bit out to each other the load comes on hard over only a few minutes - if we lose a machine between 11pm and 1am it will generally cause the whole site to go out through lack of capacity.

[Old Farang]

Not sure where to post this. More just to have a record of the damage at the Callide power plant. That's the turbine end that threw a wobbly.


Photo reveals 'catastrophic' damage to Callide Power Station that blacked out Queensland


Photo reveals 'catastrophic' damage to Callide Power Station that blacked out Queensland - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-02/qld-cs-energy-releases-photo-of-damaged-callide-power-station/100186330)


171331

[Eevo]

it will buff out.

[Homestar]

That’s a big woopsy....

Worked at plenty of power stations - can’t imagine what it would have been like to be anywhere near that when it went off.

For that matter I can’t think what would cause a fault like with the turbine.

[DiscoMick]

Yes, its interesting. I read that plant is not that old and had $60m in maintenance spent on it last year, so it should have been reliable.

[Tombie]

Yes, its interesting. I read that plant is not that old and had $60m in maintenance spent on it last year, so it should have been reliable.

You think $60mil is a lot?

[Old Farang]

That’s a big woopsy....

Worked at plenty of power stations - can’t imagine what it would have been like to be anywhere near that when it went off.

For that matter I can’t think what would cause a fault like with the turbine.

It has been suggested that there was a hydrogen explosion. I am not up with these new fangled machines, but evidently the generator is hydrogen cooled. But I rather think that it was a massive failure on the turbine, and any explosion a secondary occurrence. Love to know just what that big piece is sticking out of the floor in the foreground!

It was mentioned somewhere that I cannot find just now that an operator was concerned that the unit was not "right". Probably just as well that he was not standing alongside of it when it let go!

[350RRC]

................. Love to know just what that big piece is sticking out of the floor in the foreground!....................



According to the news this morning that OOPS (out of place shrapnel) is a piece of the turbine shaft, some 40cm in dia.

DL

[NavyDiver]

That’s a big woopsy....

Worked at plenty of power stations - can’t imagine what it would have been like to be anywhere near that when it went off.

For that matter I can’t think what would cause a fault like with the turbine.

I thought the same looking inside my disco engine when it tossed a bit and went into into demolition mode a short time ago[bigsad]

2000 odd failure points in moving bits. torque nut right on a single bolt, balance a bit of centre, wear, Metal fatigue ( that bit me in my titanium reinforced tibia [biggrin])

Suspect we all know big or small turbines have failures. That 300kg blade spinning at how many RPM is a wow. One failure at high speed is seldom going to be pretty. Glad no one was hurt. I wonder if the millions spend recently on it has a warranty? Doubt that [bigwhistle]

[Old Farang]

According to the news this morning that OOPS (out of place shrapnel) is a piece of the turbine shaft, some 40cm in dia. DL

Yes, it is fairly obvious that it is part of a shaft, or coupling, just not clear from whence it came!

[DiscoMick]

Probably keep me in adequate retirement comfort. [emoji6]
You think $60mil is a lot?

[Old Farang]

Yes, it is fairly obvious that it is part of a shaft, or coupling, just not clear from whence it came!

By enlarging the photo and looking at it a bit closer, it appears to be either a drive coupling, OR the drive end of the generator.

The flange appears to have a row of bolt holes in it. I would say that it was the drive end that let go first, followed closely by a massive overspeed of the turbine leading to it disintegrating.

That type of damage is what can happen if a unit is put online out of synch, but surely with all the modern interlocks and control electronics, that cannot happen!

[windsock]

It has been suggested that there was a hydrogen explosion. I am not up with these new fangled machines, but evidently the generator is hydrogen cooled. But I rather think that it was a massive failure on the turbine, and any explosion a secondary occurrence. Love to know just what that big piece is sticking out of the floor in the foreground!

It was mentioned somewhere that I cannot find just now that an operator was concerned that the unit was not "right". Probably just as well that he was not standing alongside of it when it let go!

Saw this on Reddit... '''Catastrophic''' damage to Callide Power Station (Queensland, Australia, May 25, 2021) : CatastrophicFailure (https://www.reddit.com/r/CatastrophicFailure/comments/nqncks/catastrophic_damage_to_callide_power_station/)

Cannot vouch for authenticity. Building in both shots is different. Something doesn't quite seem right with scales and relative sizes...

171347

[Homestar]

It has been suggested that there was a hydrogen explosion. I am not up with these new fangled machines, but evidently the generator is hydrogen cooled. But I rather think that it was a massive failure on the turbine, and any explosion a secondary occurrence. Love to know just what that big piece is sticking out of the floor in the foreground!

It was mentioned somewhere that I cannot find just now that an operator was concerned that the unit was not "right". Probably just as well that he was not standing alongside of it when it let go!

Thanks - yes they are hydrogen cooled - have been as long as I know of - Hazelwoods were all Hydrogen cooled when I was there in the late 80’s, and they had been well before that. Still never heard of one exploding in the decades I’ve been around them. There’s a lot goes on to ensure no ignition source is close so I guess they didn’t get that but right on this occasion... [emoji56]

[Tombie]

Probably keep me in adequate retirement comfort. [emoji6]

Indeed, in my pocket I’d be thrilled.
However on an industrial scale not much at all.

In a Mining Supply Chain sense it’s not much chop either - we speak of those numbers like loose change down the back of the lounge [emoji41]

[Old Farang]

Some specs of the station:

It states that it generates at 275Kv, but surely that is the grid voltage and NOT the generator voltage?
Some mind blowing temperatures and pressures being quoted.

Callide Coal-Fired Power Stations, Queensland - Power Technology | Energy News and Market Analysis (power-technology.com) (https://www.power-technology.com/projects/callide-coal/)

The 900MW Callide Power Plant (Callide C) was commissioned in 2001 at a cost of A$800m. Callide C has two 450MW units and, like Callide B, generates power at 275kV. Toshiba supplied the advanced cycle steam turbine, and IHI the boiler.

Steam temperatures and pressures were raised again over Callide B, to 566ºC and 25,100kPa.(3,640 psi)
It is managed by Callide Power Management, a joint venture company.

Callide C was the first power station in Australia to use supercritical boilers, which have higher thermal efficiencies than conventional coal-fired technology. Callide C uses coal from the nearby Anglo Coal Callide Mine, and draws water from Awoonga Dam near Gladstone.

Callide C has consistently achieved 94% availability since the most recent big outage in mid-2006. The unit’s environmental controls include real-time emissions monitoring with operator alarms and self-tuning capabilities within the control system.

Baghouse filters remove fly ash and low nitrogen oxide burners further reduce emissions of oxides of nitrogen.

[DiscoMick]

I see today's Qld budget includes $22m to design a pumped hydro power station at the Borumba dam. It will be the second pumped hydro after the one at the Wivenhoe dam. So that's good.

[Tombie]

I see today's Qld budget includes $22m to design a pumped hydro power station at the Borumba dam. It will be the second pumped hydro after the one at the Wivenhoe dam. So that's good.

That’s a good use of resource

[DiscoMick]

I also note the Qld budget assumes state-owned coal power generators, who paid a dividend of $1.6b to the state government in 2017-18, will cease to pay any dividend from 2022-23, and will run at a loss from then on, until they reach the end of their lives. Renewable power generators will progressively replace them. The budget includes $2b in new renewable projects.

[Tombie]

Sounds like a lot doesn’t it.

Unfortunately nowhere near the capital investment needed though.

[NavyDiver]

Sounds like a lot doesn’t it.

Unfortunately nowhere near the capital investment needed though.

Oddly I a making a few bets we will be 7000% ++++ over the grid requirements inside 15 years. Japans hydrogen ship Suiso Frontier built by Kawasaki Heavy Industries is shipping a tiny bit of power from us via its little hydrogen transport capacity. It is a pilot ship. The Japaneses have already plans for much bigger ones and many of them. Global Energy Ventures is a little ozzie ship engineering design company- NOT A STOCK RECOMMENDATION[biggrin]

Japan times "Too cold to handle? Race is on to pioneer shipping of hydrogen." headline is on the money. GEV is chatting about a fleet of them from North West Australia. Japan times is paywalled[bawl]

Energy stores are energy if in the form of batteries, Ccal or LNG or hydrogen or ammonia in a cleaner than green if made with out C02 emissions.


Get the feeling a ship is big? The fleets already exist in oil and gas transport. "Kawasaki aims to build 80 hydrogen carriers to import 9 million tonnes of the fuel a year by 2050, after building 2 commercial-scale ships to import 225,000 tonnes by 2030. It’s targeting overall hydrogen-related sales of 120 billion yen ($1.16 billion) in 2030 and 300 billion yen in 2040. "

80 would just be for Japan I assume[thumbsupbig]

[Tombie]

Nothing like an oil burner to ship green fuel [emoji41]

[NavyDiver]

Nothing like an oil burner to ship green fuel [emoji41]
The irony of a little ship was not lost on me[biggrin]. As it is a test for the ultra cold hydrogen transport we can cut them a little slack [bigrolf]

[Dorian]

Nothing like an oil burner to ship green fuel [emoji41]

The longer term plan is to power the ship with boil off from the hydrogen liquid.
Just like LNG shipping now which uses the small amount of boiling due to the thermal inefficiencies in the insulation.
I believe the current design operating temp for the liquid Hydrogen is -250 degrees C and the pressure is somewhere in the order of 500 psi.
Given that steel behaves like glass at those temperatures, the mind boggles at how they are going to do that.

Cheers Glen

[NavyDiver]

The longer term plan is to power the ship with boil off from the hydrogen liquid.
Just like LNG shipping now which uses the small amount of boiling due to the thermal inefficiencies in the insulation.
I believe the current design operating temp for the liquid Hydrogen is -250 degrees C and the pressure is somewhere in the order of 500 psi.
Given that steel behaves like glass at those temperatures, the mind boggles at how they are going to do that.

Cheers Glen

Fully agree with the issues at that chilly level. GEV is at a much less of an issue pressure happily. "Germany to tap Australia for 'industrial scale' green hydrogen imports in funding pact planCountries sign declaration of intent that sees Germany co-financing massive renewable H2 plants in Australia using German electrolyser technology"
The headline is not for Germany to give us a excess of hydrogen to use here so we can surmise they want some shipped to Germany [biggrin]
[thumbsupbig] This headline may be of interest "Land Rover unveils hydrogen-powered Defender; commits to zero tailpipe emissions by 2036"

I will be happy to see that one

[Tombie]

Great amount of NIMBY by other nations isn’t there.
Let’s cover Australia in Panels and Factories / facilities

[Eevo]

this felt appropriate.
https://scontent.fmel7-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-0/s600x600/193732035_10226613434672634_2419834654485897003_n. jpg?_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=825194&_nc_ohc=zs_jDOx6jYMAX848xec&_nc_ht=scontent.fmel7-1.fna&tp=7&oh=2b6f92b3a403265e295eab6b83be717e&oe=60CFDEF5

[DiscoMick]

Most new global renewable energy projects are cheaper than building new coal generators, study finds. The trends are clear. Its way beyond room for argument.

Most new wind and solar projects will be cheaper than coal, report finds | Renewable energy | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/23/most-new-wind-solar-projects-cheaper-than-coal-report?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other)

[Tins]

Most new global renewable energy projects are cheaper than building new coal generators, study finds. The trends are clear. Its way beyond room for argument.

Most new wind and solar projects will be cheaper than coal, report finds | Renewable energy | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/23/most-new-wind-solar-projects-cheaper-than-coal-report?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other)

The Guardian? Again? Is there any point debating with you?

[W&KO]

It’ll be interesting to see if companies keep up with the maintenance on wind farms for the long haul. Wonder how many years it’ll be before we’ll see wind generators parked up.

Was at a gearbox engineering shop on Tuesday and they had 3 gearbox’s on the floor, 2 un-repairable. There was also a bunch in the racking which were also unrepairable I’m guessing there would have been six.

They pointed some design issues along with lack of monitoring, preventative maintenance and difficulties replacing a gearbox post commissioning.

[350RRC]

It’ll be interesting to see if companies keep up with the maintenance on wind farms for the long haul. Wonder how many years it’ll be before we’ll see wind generators parked up.

Was at a gearbox engineering shop on Tuesday and they had 3 gearbox’s on the floor, 2 un-repairable. There was also a bunch in the racking which were also unrepairable I’m guessing there would have been six.

They pointed some design issues along with lack of monitoring, preventative maintenance and difficulties replacing a gearbox post commissioning.

I'm not pushing wind turbines, but it needs to be put in perspective.

The Callide thing in Qld has had the equivalent of SA's total average daily generation out of action for a month. Yes two out of four Callide generators are going now.

The bits of the one that blew up won't be sitting in a rack.

The two that are still out are the equivalent of over 100 of the new 4.2 MW wind turbines being off line.

The Yallourn situation has about 1200 MW of generation offline atm in Vic.

There's hundreds of wind turbines compared with far far fewer coal fired units so I don't think a few broken gearboxes is a big deal.

cheers, DL

[Eevo]

It’ll be interesting to see if companies keep up with the maintenance on wind farms for the long haul. Wonder how many years it’ll be before we’ll see wind generators parked up..
i know in the good ol US of A, i think it was texas, there are windturbines left to rust once they had past their 20year maitance lifecycle as it wasnt worth the money.

[Eevo]

https://www.riteon.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/14000-scatter-unites-states.jpg

[DiscoMick]

Battery banks: three experiences in the Dandenong outages.
They all worked as expected. The message is bigger is better.

What the Dandenong Ranges extended power outage teaches us about backup battery power
What the Dandenong Ranges extended power outage teaches us about backup battery power - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-03/battery-power-dandenong-ranges-tesla-agm-grid/100264988)

[DiscoMick]

Batteries no longer need government support to be viable.

Big $300m battery to be built without government aid in market first (https://amp.smh.com.au/business/markets/big-300m-battery-to-be-built-without-government-aid-in-market-first-20210705-p586z6.html?__twitter_impression=true)

[NavyDiver]

Battery banks: three experiences in the Dandenong outages.
They all worked as expected. The message is bigger is better.

What the Dandenong Ranges extended power outage teaches us about backup battery power
What the Dandenong Ranges extended power outage teaches us about backup battery power - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-03/battery-power-dandenong-ranges-tesla-agm-grid/100264988)

Storage has limits if the you cannot recharge. The Tesla battery with no solar is a short term option only. The other two had solar and also the knowledge to shut of bits they do not need. The underfloor electric heating in a 4ish degree environment could be 40-60Kwh daily? No way a battery will keep that going for a day or more with out input Mick.

I really do not see the storage type as the issue in the Dandenong example. Other than how long they would last for and if they cope with hot and cold conditions. We know that 10ish years is the life of the best of the current ones.

The used Telstra set up was smart. Cost is always an issue as is warranty when things go south. [bigwhistle] My redflow have had a very welcome support from them. No grumbles from me.

With several cells/banks you can replace defective ones when you identify a fault. With Tesla you have little access despite the pretty and nice interface GUI [biggrin]
Looking closely at my Solar side. I would like to make if 4 times bigger. Not enough space sadly and a big 4/5 storey development to my north is possibly going to have some impact on that plan.

The Melbourne battery plan is interesting as it is claiming it not seeking hand outs. It is legal changes that are making trading possible and likely to change to slow old coal burners a bit faster I think.

"The introduction of five-minute settlement periods within the National Electricity Market in October to replace the current 30-minute period also means “there will be plenty of arbitrage to go around” for suppliers such as battery owners, Professor Mountain said."

[DiscoMick]

Yes, that shift from 5 to 30 minute periods could have some interesting effects.

[NavyDiver]

Yes, that shift from 5 to 30 minute periods could have some interesting effects.

it is easy at a economic only justification Mick. Since 2010 Solar cost have declined by a factor of five. Wind has followed a similar cost reduction and importantly both have seen significant growth in almost any and every country now just as it is cheaper, faster and easier to do if you remove the protection applied to Coal and fossil fuel sectors.

Oman is an oil state yet is moving off to solar and wind.

172121

In about 2014 the cost curve for Solar made it clearly cheaper. It is not really a question unless counting money and science is not important.

https://reneweconomy.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/solar-future-costs.jpg

Forecasts are of course just that. Real date from 2000 to 2020 is more than enough. A Oil/GAS explorer has geological maps and expertise to try and find gas/oil yet we all know they drill a lot of dry wells. GIS wind and Sun data mean it is not guess work where economic and long term money well be made. Oman research paper is a me me me yet shows economics and research at a micro level which we know is being applied at a macro level. The Oman data I am referring to link (https://jrenewables.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40807-020-00062-7)



"Ten Years of Plunging Solar Prices Before going on to the future, let’s look at the last decade, and how exceptional it’s been. To do so, it’s tempting to look at the constant drumbeat of record-setting news-making solar auction prices, like bids at a costs of 1.35 cents per kwh in Abu Dhabi (https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/worlds-largest-solar-project-will-also-be-worlds-cheapest) or 1.6 cents per kwh in Portugal (https://www.pv-tech.org/news/portugal-reveals-winners-of-record-breaking-solar-auction)."

Wind is even more interesting in some ways as scale on and offshore has exploded "The cost of land-based wind has dropped by 41% since 2008, and wind capacity has tripled in the same period."

1990 to 2015 in this size chart is WOW

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Marcelo-Molina-2/publication/221911675/figure/fig1/AS:304715263954947@1449661189010/Size-evolution-of-wind-turbines-over-time.png

They are much bigger again today[biggrin]
Yallourn provides 22 per cent of Victoria's electricity, and about 8 per cent of Australia's National Electricity Market ( in Vic so picking on a dirty one here) Its is about 10,500 GW p.a.

This is for older smaller Wind turbines "an average onshore wind turbine rated at 2.5 – 3 megawatts can produce in excess of 6 million kWh every year. A 3.6 MW offshore turbine may double that" the division of Yallourn full year by one wind tower at <6 million PA suggest 1750 old smaller onshore Wind Turbines fill Yallourn full year capacity and as it was "More than" 1750 would exceed Yallourn.

five 2021 projects here in Oz are "Here you can see the top 5 onshore wind power projects taking place in Australia this year.


Golden Plains Wind Farm (https://www.airswift.com/blog/top-5-wind-energy-projects-in-australia#Golden)
Clark Creek Energy Hub (https://www.airswift.com/blog/top-5-wind-energy-projects-in-australia#ClarkCreek)
Forest Wind Farm (https://www.airswift.com/blog/top-5-wind-energy-projects-in-australia#Forest)
MacIntyre Wind Farm (https://www.airswift.com/blog/top-5-wind-energy-projects-in-australia#Maclntyre)
Dulacca Wind Farm (https://www.airswift.com/blog/top-5-wind-energy-projects-in-australia#Delucca)

These projects will add a combined up to 6926MW to the grid, powering 2.19 million Australian homes annually." link (https://www.airswift.com/blog/top-5-wind-energy-projects-in-australia)




Dry July has me making some money as well as saving it [bigwhistle]

[PhilipA]

These projects will add a combined up to 6926MW to the grid, powering 2.19 million Australian homes annually.

When the wind blows not too little and not too much.
Are those figures bull**** capacity or actual capacity of about 30% of installed capacity
Regards PhilipA

[DiscoMick]

This is also interesting in technical advances in lithium.

Sayona battery breakthrough adds to soaring share price - InQueensland (https://inqld.com.au/business/2021/07/07/sayona-battery-breakthrough-adds-to-soaring-share-price/)

[NavyDiver]

When the wind blows not too little and not too much.
Are those figures bull**** capacity or actual capacity of about 30% of installed capacity
Regards PhilipA

Not my numbers Philip. I noted it was not raining often when when my ships finishing playing out deep. If we did not do a wash down before getting along side we knew we would be doing a fresh water wash down before we could step ashore. I do not recall more than once staying on the ship after we docked as we could always find a rain storm on the radar and steam over to it. Radar helped of course. It can measure wind speed as well[bigwhistle]

When I first moved back to Vic I hated the wind making my bike ride at well off upright and often at a lean of 45ish degrees to due to the constant strong westerly winds on the South West coast of Vic. The Kite Man- Ted Mellor R.I.P. convince me to make the most of it and not one day went by with out my acquired very high speed two string kite zooming about at ridiculous speeds[biggrin]

Not at all surprised to find it one of the busiest and most profitable wind farm areas.

The GIS data has been collected for decades now. Its not anything more than actuate record of wind and more for almost the entire world. Have a glance if you like. Wind Resource Data, Tools, and Maps | Geospatial Data Science | NREL (https://www.nrel.gov/gis/wind.html)
It is a US government resource for ships, planes and more. It is gold standard and a lot more accurate than a drilling rig hoping to hit gas, oil or gold. [thumbsupbig]

[DiscoMick]

This is great, and it would be even greater to see more of this happening.

How Australia's battery industry highlights the barriers for onshore manufacturing
How Australia'&#39;'s battery industry highlights the barriers for onshore manufacturing - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-08/battery-manufacturing-home-storage-australia-industry/100275874)

[350RRC]

When the wind blows not too little and not too much.
Are those figures bull**** capacity or actual capacity of about 30% of installed capacity
Regards PhilipA

The Vic leader has been Kiata WF with an annual capacity factor of 47%. Nine 3.3kw turbines, hits 101% sometimes.

Turns off regularly when the price gets below $30 / mW. Did notice they kept it running one day when the price was negative a couple of months ago, maybe to see if they could get 24 hours @ 100%. Dunno.

The newer WF, Berrybank, has many more 4.2mW turbines and really stands out on % capacity ratings compared with all the other WF's, even Kiata, when the wind is about the same strength across Vic. I assume it's due to the increased efficiency of newer, larger turbines.



Not easy to get the cap factor figures however.

I'm not an advocate, just interested in facts.

DL

[NavyDiver]

The Vic leader has been Kiata WF with an annual capacity factor of 47%. Nine 3.3kw turbines, hits 101% sometimes.

Turns off regularly when the price gets below $30 / mW. Did notice they kept it running one day when the price was negative a couple of months ago, maybe to see if they could get 24 hours @ 100%. Dunno.

The newer WF, Dundonell, has many more 4.2mW turbines and really stands out on % capacity ratings compared with all the other WF's, even Kiata, when the wind is generally 20 km/h or more. I assume it's due to the increased efficiency of newer, larger turbines.



Not easy to get the cap factor figures however.

I'm not an advocate, just interested in facts.

DL

Reliability is a issue as Philip points out. It swing both way with QLD coal turbine blowing up, Coal mine in East vic at risk of drowning and a gas price spike reducing demand by industrial business here now today. "Double whammy’: Wholesale gas prices hit five-year highs" out put from "Victoria’s Longford gas plant" is at trickle of the required capacity.
Winds locally can be a bit variable and that is especially true over a large area.

Supply from fossil fuels has generally become reliable. On a bigger scale the Texas big freeze last year proved that is not always true. Add the cyber attack on oil earlier this year which was another event impacting on reliability. I have a work building UPS back up as even short outages have and would impact. Reliability is required on a micro or macro scale.

[350RRC]

Reliability is a issue as Philip points out. It swing both way with QLD coal turbine blowing up, Coal mine in East vic at risk of drowning and a gas price spike reducing demand by industrial business here now today. "Double whammy’: Wholesale gas prices hit five-year highs" out put from "Victoria’s Longford gas plant" is at trickle of the required capacity.
Winds locally can be a bit variable and that is especially true over a large area.

Supply from fossil fuels has generally become reliable. On a bigger scale the Texas big freeze last year proved that is not always true. Add the cyber attack on oil earlier this year which was another event impacting on reliability. I have a work building UPS back up as even short outages have and would impact. Reliability is required on a micro or macro scale.

I edited the previous post, Berrybank was the WF I was thinking of but Dundonell also has 4.2's and is not far behind.

The relatively high capacity factors of those two and Kiata stand out regardless of wind strength, but it helps to have similar wind speed across Vic to make a comparison.

DL

[NavyDiver]

did a little on this topic for myself - thought it might interest you. It follows from the US goal to eliminate C02 from its electrical generation by 2035 (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/)
Goal are of course a bit like arseholes- everyone has one

[B]Extreme Hot weather:
Drives up energy demand when supply is made more difficult.
Limit the amount of energy power lines can carry Power line transmission losses- Recall year 9 or From 3 science Ohm’s law anyone?
“Electrons moving back and forth crash into each other, and those collisions warm up power lines and the air around them.
You can actually hear those losses: That crackling sound when you stand under a transmission tower is lost electricity. You can see the losses, too: Notice how power lines sag in the middle? Some of that’s gravity. But the rest are electrical losses. Heat, like the kind from lost electricity, makes metal power lines expand. When they do, they sag. Powerlines are saggier, and leakier, on hot days.” link (http://insideenergy.org/2015/11/06/lost-in-transmission-how-much-electricity-disappears-between-a-power-plant-and-your-plug/) Increased fire risk, Drought……. And many deaths in extreme events

Extreme Cold weather
Texas Case study– Feb 2021 The coldest temperatures in 30 years triggered a sudden spike in wintertime energy demand, while the chilly weather led to coal piles freezing, a nuclear reactor tripping offline, and wind turbines icing up. Most importantly, the state’s largest source of electricity, natural gas, suffered shortfalls as wellheads froze, icy condensation blocked pipelines, and compressor stations shut down.
The blackouts cost the Texan economy upward of $130 billion in damages and losses
Texas politicos blamed iced-up wind turbines for the electricity shortfall when the majority of the power losses were from natural gas

The more things change the more they stay the same. Texas lost power in 2011, the Texas population has grown by more than 4 million people to nearly 30 million residents, further increasing energy demand.


Extreme weather events

Extreme weather events and will ensuing chaos and are a bigger threat to electricity. The number of Billion $ weather events is worth considering Extreme Weather and Climate Change | Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (c2es.org) (https://www.c2es.org/content/extreme-weather-and-climate-change/)
(USA only) I could find similar Australian data and picking on a place I love “ in Perth, the number of days above 35 °C by 2090 is 50 per cent greater than in the period centred on 1995 under RCP4.5. The number of days above 35 °C in Adelaide also increases by about 50 per cent by 2090, whereas the number of days above 40 °C more than doubles”
Not pretty reading Increased extreme weather events | Australia State of the Environment Report (https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme/built-environment/topic/2016/increased-extreme-weather-events) (Australia 2016)
Not suggesting a hot or cold day is climate change- I do think and see ‘extremes’ have significant impacts.

Many Solutions are needed. I think is more local power generation and more interconnected power resources to mitigate risks. Hazer local and state sized hydrogen production, storage and electrolysers for local and larger power generation and nuclear is in my thought just some of the required solution. nuclear probably not here due to some of the same reasons some other smart things are not here.

Noting I am still waiting for an electric motor and sufficient power for offshore fishing in my boat. Mario commented I still have a dirty 2 stroke motor Mia Culpa [biggrin]

[PhilipA]

Texas politicos blamed iced-up wind turbines for the electricity shortfall when the majority of the power losses were from natural gas
Nay Diver you should not believe things that renewable proponents claim.

“Wind was operating almost as well as expected”… A Texas-sized Energy Lie – Watts Up With That? (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/25/wind-was-operating-almost-as-well-as-expected-a-texas-sized-energy-lie/)
There are several sources that show that wind almost completely failed during the storms and that gas actually increased production but was unable to fully take the place of wind.
Regards PhilipA

[NavyDiver]

Nay Diver you should not believe things that renewable proponents claim.

“Wind was operating almost as well as expected”… A Texas-sized Energy Lie – Watts Up With That? (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/25/wind-was-operating-almost-as-well-as-expected-a-texas-sized-energy-lie/)
There are several sources that show that wind almost completely failed during the storms and that gas actually increased production but was unable to fully take the place of wind.
Regards PhilipA

Not suggesting the wind worked when iced up Philip- Much of it failed as well. A lot of the gas which was not iced up due to the infrastructure not being diverted to heating. Wind can stop power in high winds as well which is to avoid damage to the turbines and huge blades. Gas was the main loss as it is one of the biggest generation sources in Texas A full list of Texas generation sites of all types
(https://www.eia.gov/beta/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/1?agg=2,0,1&fuel=vtvv&sec=g&geo=0000000002&freq=A&datecode=2018&tab=overview&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0%3Cype&ctype=linechart&end=201710&start=200101)Gas is the main source of Power in Texas.

On wind specifically and Texas "Texas leads the nation in wind-powered generation and produced about 28% of all U.S. wind-powered electricity in 2020. Wind power surpassed the state's nuclear generation for the first time in 2014 and produced more than twice as much electricity as the state's two nuclear power plants combined in 2020 (https://www.eia.gov/state/'sid=TX)."

That is impressive yet clearly has its risks in high winds and extreme weather events. Gas infrastructure in Canada, Alaska and other very cold places would not have had the same issue as Texas is a fact beyond dispute either. Texas is not unique in planing for what the normal conditions are. We all do that for heating, cooling our homes which depends entirely where you live. First time I noted that was while in an almost tropical country. We froze. Not a heater could be brought. I still have many of the layers of clothing needed in that very unexpected cold snap 10 years ago. Just about went ass up on ice this morning here- Frost not unheard of in even QLD :)

The Texas nuclear plant also tripped off due to the overload/demand I think.

[JDNSW]

Wind was not expected to supply much during the storms, as winds are generally very light at this time of the year, and most of the capacity was shut down anyway for maintenance.

The major reasons for the outage were record demand, and failure of nuclear power as well as some gas plants because of pretty trivial failures brought about by the abnormally low temperatures, poor planning that meant the infrastructure was incapable of importing power from interstate. And overall, a critical gas shortage brought about by the record demand plus failure of a significant proportion of gas production simply because production equipment failed at the low temperatures encountered.

Most equipment in Texas, whether we are talking about gas production, nuclear power plants, wind generators, houses, or roads were not designed to function in those temperatures. And they didn't! "Everyone knows it is hot in Texas, not cold" (I have a brother lives in Texas, hence direct information)

[Eevo]

The Texas nuclear plant also tripped off due to the overload/demand I think.
water intake feed froze.

[JDNSW]

water intake feed froze.

Exactly! And similar issues with a lot of gas production - most gas comes out of the ground mixed with a bit of water, and goes via a short pipe into a separator. No need to worry about that short pipe blocking with ice - "it never gets cold enough for that in Texas!" Same story with a lot of houses that not only lost power, but also lost water when their pipes froze and burst, flooding the house when the temperature got up a bit.

[Eevo]

Exactly! And similar issues with a lot of gas production - most gas comes out of the ground mixed with a bit of water, and goes via a short pipe into a separator. No need to worry about that short pipe blocking with ice - "it never gets cold enough for that in Texas!" Same story with a lot of houses that not only lost power, but also lost water when their pipes froze and burst, flooding the house when the temperature got up a bit.
not sure about the rest of australia but same thing can happen here in SA

[JDNSW]

Most places where it is a recognised risk take precautions such as lagging exposed pipes. It is rare for it to happen here - I have had one frozen pipe, once in 26 years.

[Tombie]

Well the big Vic battery isn’t so happy at the moment.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210730/a8bfa82f8178df467488f4ccc00dc6df.jpg

[BradC]

Well the big Vic battery isn’t so happy at the moment.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210730/a8bfa82f8178df467488f4ccc00dc6df.jpg

It's a hot time in the old town tonight. That might set back commissioning a few weeks.
I'll look forward to the forensic report and lessons learned. Without mistakes we have little to learn....

[Eevo]

it wasnt even connected 24hours.
maybe they thought they were building a thermal plant? [bigwhistle]

[BradC]

Got it "under control".

Firefighters bring large battery fire near Geelong under control | CFA News & Media (https://news.cfa.vic.gov.au/firefighters-bring-large-battery-fire-near-geelong-under-control)

Having a look at the site and infrastructure, one doesn't imagine it's going to be a massive job to replace the trashed module. It'll be interesting to see how it unfolds.

[PhilipA]

I read somewhere several months ago that fire authorities were demanding that building standards be changed so that Tesla batteries had to be in a separate structure to a house because of this danger.

Has anyone heard any more on this issue. In the USA they seem to be placed on garage walls . Is it the same here?
Maybe there will be a new look at the issue after this.
Regards PhilipA

[NavyDiver]

I did consider lithium batteries for work 10 ish years ago. [bigwhistle] I went another way as the:
1-Zero brick issue- if they got to real zero SOC they are broken beyond repair.
2-The Fire risk. Not huge but IF or when something goes wrong when charging the thermal issues with the current lithium liquid catalyst version is very well know and has been since some went up on airplanes a decades ago now. Big or small they can bite
A " iPhone caused a small fire onboard a British Airways Boeing 787-9 as it was descending towards London Heathrow Airport. The UK’s Air Accident Investigation Branch (AAIB) today released a report into the incident. Thankfully nobody was injured, and the aircraft wasn’t damaged. "

Some of the people at Redflow flow batteries where quick to point out flow batteries are not flammable went the Geelong battery went up in smoke for three days. Smug mug smile for me. The news report the fire fighters put it out was funny. They let it burn itself out as they cannot put it out!


Like flow batteries, solid state catalyst lithium batteries which are not a fire risk I hear. They will change so many things about how we think about batteries and may be here at a large scale in the next 3 years. I wonder how many millions of dollars the Geelong one cost?

[DiscoMick]

The ones I have seen have been mounted on outside walls of buildings.

[Homestar]

I’ve seen 2 - both in the garage. I wouldn’t want one hanging on my wall that’s for sure. I’ve got a spot outside away from the house if prices ever come down like they promise.

[Tombie]

I’ve seen 2 - both in the garage. I wouldn’t want one hanging on my wall that’s for sure. I’ve got a spot outside away from the house if prices ever come down like they promise.

Having seen the damage an 18v battery on charge did when it went wrong… I’m in strong agreement with you.

[Homestar]

And they just hang them off an interior stud wall as well - not like it's on the bricks or anything remotely fire resistant. House would be gone before you knew it if one was to go up - but as usual it will take one or two to go nuclear before they introduce regulations around their placement.

[DiscoMick]

My mate in Coffs who has 15kW of lithium batteries has put the whole stack in a garden shed several metres from his house, which seems sensible.

[windsock]

One for the grid data junkies.

NZ had a national electricity grid emergency last night. It was a very cold night. Snow to low levels and even sea level in the South Island. Snow falling in many places for the first time in a long time in parts of the North Island. A very cold South West wind, gale force in some regions. Damned cold.

Settled weather on Tuesday for most of NZ as polar storm moves away | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300378785/settled-weather-on-tuesday-for-most-of-nz-as-polar-storm-moves-away)

The National Grid came under huge pressure from added heating demand.

National demand for electricity reaches all-time high, cities plunged into darkness to reduce load | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/126020059/national-demand-for-electricity-reaches-alltime-high-cities-plunged-into-darkness-to-reduce-load)

Widespread power outage in the middle of winter - thousands affected - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/widespread-power-outage-in-the-middle-of-winter-thousands-affected/LVKE32TOWMPVTPE76HM7P4U4G4/)

We can download 5 min, 30 min and 1 hour data from our grid operator, Transpower.

Load Graphs | Transpower (https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/operational-information/load-graphs#download)

See real time data here:

Power System Live Data | Transpower (https://www.transpower.co.nz/power-system-live-data)

I downloaded the 5 min data and chucked it around in excel. The data for the whole country and for specific Grid Zones from the 8th (whole 'normal' day profile - left of the charts) to the 10th Aug (so it included the anomalous 9th Aug data - middle to the right) looked like this. Bit of an issue.

172745


172746

[DiscoMick]

That's interesting. Did you have blackouts?

Here's an interesting explanation of how EVs can be used to stabilise the power grid.

Energy stored in electric car batteries could power your home or stabilise the grid — and save you money
Energy stored in electric car batteries could power your home or stabilise the grid — and save you money - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-08-10/v2g-vehicle-to-grid-pays-ev-owners-for-electricity/100353072)

[windsock]

That's interesting. Did you have blackouts?

We didn't here at home but we noticed some flickering in our lights from time to time. We are within the Bunnythorpe Grid Zone. The national grid crosses Cook Strait (on the DC cable link) and then heads north from the Haywards Hill switchyard (where the DC to AC conversion takes place) to the Bunnythorpe switchyard. It then branches off west, north and east from here. The areas west, north and east of us is mainly where they pulled the plug on cities and towns. Wellington, Kāpiti Coast, Palmerston North, Taupō, New Plymouth, Taranaki, Hamilton, Napier, Hastings, Auckland and Whangārei. While they were cutting power to areas, they were also ramping up generation so the graphs shown represent the combined impact of blackouts and generation ramping.

Basically the evening peak was lopped off large areas were in blackout...

Quite an event in an otherwise fairly stable grid. Last such emergency was around 10 years ago. In the last few years, the growth of housing and population (and hence load) in the north and east regions is quite pronounced.

Did you notice the very large anomaly in the morning load in Auckland? Instead of a rise to a peak and then the usual drop it went to a huge level (approx 300MW higher than normal) and flattened out at that level. Quite unusual.

[Homestar]

That's interesting. Did you have blackouts?

Here's an interesting explanation of how EVs can be used to stabilise the power grid.

Energy stored in electric car batteries could power your home or stabilise the grid — and save you money
Energy stored in electric car batteries could power your home or stabilise the grid — and save you money - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-08-10/v2g-vehicle-to-grid-pays-ev-owners-for-electricity/100353072)

Just need some EV’s on the road now to make that happen. [emoji56]

[windsock]

One for the grid data junkies.

NZ had a national electricity grid emergency last night.

In an interesting follow up to this today. Genesis energy, our main thermal electricity generator refused to fire up an extra boiler when it knew cold weather was coming and the reasons being given is that it saw the hydro and many of the wind farms in the North Island were generating at capacity. However, the gale force winds pushed weed into the intake zone of the Tokaanu hydro (240 MW capacity) near Taupo and then the gale force winds dropped to near nothing so the wind generation of the North Island (709 MW capacity but not all were online) fell a bit suddenly. Capacity shortage and no spinning reserve to back up the high renewable penetration levels.

This could become the case study on the absolute requirement of spinning reserve in a grid with high renewable penetration.

Power blackouts: Genesis Energy didn'&#39;'t generate extra power despite freezing cold, PM says situation not good enough | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300378816/power-blackouts-genesis-energy-didnt-generate-extra-power-despite-freezing-cold-pm-says-situation-not-good-enough)

[Tombie]

That's interesting. Did you have blackouts?

Here's an interesting explanation of how EVs can be used to stabilise the power grid.

Energy stored in electric car batteries could power your home or stabilise the grid — and save you money
Energy stored in electric car batteries could power your home or stabilise the grid — and save you money - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-08-10/v2g-vehicle-to-grid-pays-ev-owners-for-electricity/100353072)

And around it goes…

Excellent. I had power at home - and now I can’t go to work because my car “has a flat” [emoji3166]

[Homestar]

And around it goes…

Excellent. I had power at home - and now I can’t go to work because my car “has a flat” [emoji3166]

But your coffee machine worked long enough for your morning coffee so life goes on and you dust off the treadly and rummage around trying to find a helmet to sweat it up getting to your job. [biggrin]

Or, if you're like me (I know you are) - you jump into one of the other 4 vehicles/Motorbikes you have and leave the EV to collect dust. [bigwhistle]

[DiscoMick]

We briefly hit 57% renewable energy at the weekend, which is significant, but there is still a long way to go.

Solar power in Australia outstrips coal-fired electricity for first time | Energy | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/23/solar-power-in-australia-outstrips-coal-fired-electricity-for-first-time?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other)

[PhilipA]

So tell me how the solar generators make money by "being more nimble" when prices turn negative.
That means they make a loss.

Regards PhilipA

[Tombie]

That’s like saying I ran at 80km/h. For the first 15mm [emoji56]

My PV array does some great output during edge effect cloud. It’s not sustained very often

[DiscoMick]

Because solar and wind are cheaper when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing. Coal can't compete on price at those times without selling power at a loss.
As for nimble, you can't just switch a coal generator on or off.
'Baseloard power' is not the minimum grid demand. Baseload power actually means the minimum level coal generators can operate at. Below that, they have to shut down for long periods.
So, that means when solar and wind are cheaper, coal generators still have to keep operating at their minimum baseload level, even though their electricity is too expensive and they are losing money. So they are not nimble.

So tell me how the solar generators make money by "being more nimble" when prices turn negative.
That means they make a loss.

Regards PhilipA

[PhilipA]

Because solar and wind are cheaper when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing. Coal can't compete on price at those times without selling power at a loss.

You have not answered the question.

The problem is the "duck curve" where most solar is generated when nobody wants it ,so the power has to be sold by the solar generators at a loss or even pay others to accept their power..

It is some of this excess that the government wants to harness to produce Hydrogen.

BUT the simple question still is how do they make money when selling at a loss.

We all know that Coal power stations are slow to spool up , but they supply power at night which has now been recognised by the Government in their latest proposed rule change.

The more solar the bigger the problem, and that is why California is now building some new gas plants, even when they can buy power from other states.
Regards PhilipA
BTW AFAIK you cannot turn solar off when there is too much generation unless you have a bloke with a lot of blankets, so how is it "nimble"

[JDNSW]

...........
BUT the simple question still is how do they make money when selling at a loss.

We all know that Coal power stations are slow to spool up , but they supply power at night which has now been recognised by the Government in their latest proposed rule change.
......

I think you are missing the point - a solar power station is not "losing" when it cannot supply to the grid; the output is simply switched off - it does not have to 'go' anywhere. Almost all the cost of "running" a solar power plant is capital cost, which is still being incurred even if the station is not supplying power, so the cost of capital when shut down is spread over the power produced when it is supplying. This calculation is taken into account in designing the business model of the plant.

Fossil fuel plants also have capital cost, but in addition have as their major cost, the cost of fuel, and the cost of this per kwh sold can easily exceed the market price when there is plenty of supply or when they have to operate at low outputs resulting in lower thermal efficiency. And if they shut down to avoid this cost, a lot of fuel is expended during shutdown and restart. You cannot simply switch off the output of a fossil fuel plant - it will almost certainly cause catastrophic damage (less likely with a gas turbine, but these are not particularly efficient at best). The business model of fossil fuel plants generally only envisages shutdowns for the minimum necessary for maintenance. If you tried to design a business model for a fossil fuel plant that is only used part of the time, you are looking at a "peaking" facility, usually gas turbine, and intended only to be used when the price is abnormally high.

[PhilipA]

I think you are missing the point - a solar power station is not "losing" when it cannot supply to the grid; the output is simply switched off -

No, i am not missing any point.

If what you say is true , how come solar prices go negative?

You must understand that these are competing companies and nobody wants to "blink" first. They all want to keep producing until an oversupply and negative prices happen, then one or several may blink.

So if it is a liability for coal stations to have to buy fuel, lets see the solar producers supply at night.

The only way is with batteries or maybe pumped storage.

Everything I have seen is that such batteries would cost hundreds of Billions, making coal input prices trivial in comparison. Pumped storage is very inefficient and costly also.

You must understand this in the context of this thread. 75% renewable is a dream by demented greenies who do not care how much electricity costs or the economic outcomes as long as their purity is unsullied.
Regards PhilipA

[DiscoMick]

What John said.

In the national energy market, generators bid to supply specified amounts every 30 minutes.
If a solar or wind company's bid is not accepted, it simply does not supply. The fuel cost is nil.
If a fossil fuel company's bid is not successful, it has to either continue operating at a loss, consuming fuel, or shut down, at considerable cost.
Keep in mind also that many generators also have long-term contracts with companies and other big consumers including governments to supply at a fixed price, which is obviously profitable for the generator or it wouldn't sign up.
Also, re batteries, the SA Tesla battery is making healthy profits and can supply cheaper than fossil fuel generators at any time, day or night, which is why many other batteries are happening.
The situation is changing and new ways of thinking are needed.

[Homestar]

New ways of thinking yes - but ya canna change the laws of Physics (Jim).

Large solar is causing all sorts of issues with the grid, so just whacking more solar farms in won’t work, several of the largest solar farms in Vic are finding out first hand it isn’t that simple and have to **** off completely quite frequently during the day - there isn’t anywhere for the power to go and they can’t maintain a base load or provide and fault current when needed so they are still an ‘add on’ at best and make up very little of the total power used. House systems with integrated batteries would be far better than large scale systems, but the price is still way too high for mass adoption. Large scale batteries are eye wateringly expensive and even the biggest ones are a drop in the ocean but are good at smoothing things out somewhat. If they are charged with renewable energy then they have a place but again, due to cost, we won’t see nearly enough of them to make a significant difference or enough to be able to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels any time soon.

[NavyDiver]

New ways of thinking yes - but ya canna change the laws of Physics (Jim).

Large solar is causing all sorts of issues with the grid, so just whacking more solar farms in won’t work, several of the largest solar farms in Vic are finding out first hand it isn’t that simple and have to **** off completely quite frequently during the day - there isn’t anywhere for the power to go and they can’t maintain a base load or provide and fault current when needed so they are still an ‘add on’ at best and make up very little of the total power used. House systems with integrated batteries would be far better than large scale systems, but the price is still way too high for mass adoption. Large scale batteries are eye wateringly expensive and even the biggest ones are a drop in the ocean but are good at smoothing things out somewhat. If they are charged with renewable energy then they have a place but again, due to cost, we won’t see nearly enough of them to make a significant difference or enough to be able to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels any time soon.

One word- two really as Hydrogen or green ammonia can both be made with solar, wind or any type of electricity and currently are

Not one day goes by with out a few million here and several hundred million there popping up

"The 2 MW PEM electrolyser is the second system to be delivered as part of the green hydrogen infrastructure network that is currently supplying hydrogen to the first 46 Hyundai trucks already operating in Switzerland and aiming to reach a fleet of 1,600 by 2025. The system will be filling 350 barg trailers directly at site to dispatch the hydrogen to the Hydrospider network in Switzerland. H2 Energy is working together with various partners to establish a nation‐wide network of hydrogen stations and corresponding supply chain in Switzerland as well as abroad. H2 Energy is focusing on producing only renewable energy-based hydrogen to contribute to the decarbonization of various sectors."

An interesting line I see is "global sales network World's largest electrolyzer manufacturer, with >3500 units" I am not sure how long before we will see a replacement of the million of tonnes of Carbon fuel made Hydrogen and ammonia we already use or for a store of wind, solar .... for when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine.

On a smaller scale my UPS set up at work got a bug- Its is my 8 Lazer Printers- they can spike well over 2000w each if all turned on at once! That blows of the grid again if it flicks off for longer than a few seconds. I an cope with well over 10,000 watts. well over 20,000 is pita [biggrin]

A test run on Sunday with my lazer printers turned off worked well. I turned the lazer printers on one at a time with now problems. The sun was rude and solar covered the whole building load most of the time. A cool change buy my battery software (RFX) had the batteries go to a hibernation mode at over 80%. Previously a test would have seen them strip to zero then fully charge and go back to sleep.

"Batteries are useful for short-term energy storage, and concentrated solar power plants could help stabilize the electric grid. However, utilities also need to store a lot of energy for indefinite amounts of time. This is a role for renewable fuels like hydrogen (https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-fuel-basics) and ammonia (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/07/ammonia-renewable-fuel-made-sun-air-and-water-could-power-globe-without-carbon). Utilities would store energy in these fuels by producing them with surplus power, when wind turbines and solar panels are generating more electricity than the utilities’ customers need.

Hydrogen and ammonia contain more energy per pound than batteries, so they work where batteries don’t. For example, they could be used for shipping heavy loads and running heavy equipment (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53238512), and for rocket fuel (https://spaceaustralia.com/feature/renewable-rocket-fuels-going-green-and-space)." link (https://www.popsci.com/environment/renewable-energy-storage-technology/)



I am often wrong of course[thumbsupbig]

[BradC]

I am often wrong of course[thumbsupbig]

I'm not sure you are here though. Batteries are short term, expensive and frankly not scalable. Thermal is tried, tested, maintinable and thoroughly developed, they just need to find a way to store hydrogen in some form of sustainable manner with a decent density.

The person that manages to turn hydrogen and carbon dioxide into a viable (both process and energy input) synthetic fuel that emits only as much as it contains and has an energy density even vaguely close to current hydrocarbons is going to win the world.

[Tombie]

I'm not sure you are here though. Batteries are short term, expensive and frankly not scalable. Thermal is tried, tested, maintinable and thoroughly developed, they just need to find a way to store hydrogen in some form of sustainable manner with a decent density.

The person that manages to turn hydrogen and carbon dioxide into a viable (both process and energy input) synthetic fuel that emits only as much as it contains and has an energy density even vaguely close to current hydrocarbons is going to win the world.

And re-write Physics [emoji2]

[BradC]

And re-write Physics [emoji2]

Not really. It's still going to take a huge over-par energy input to make it. It's not about end to end efficiency, it's about efficient (on a time and density basis) storage. Given the world is hell bent on extinguishing reliable power and replacing it with something that works when we don't need it, and doesn't work when we do, taking that and using it to create a "dispatchable" fuel source is less about efficiency and more practicality.

We're not trying to circumvent thermodynamics, we're just trying to get as much energy as we can in a form we can use when we need it. If it takes 400% input to create it, then so be it.

The alternative is to keep subsidising "green" power such that we make conventional generation completely un-economical, and then we all freeze to death in the dark.

[NavyDiver]

I'm not sure you are here though. Batteries are short term, expensive and frankly not scalable. Thermal is tried, tested, maintinable and thoroughly developed, they just need to find a way to store hydrogen in some form of sustainable manner with a decent density.

The person that manages to turn hydrogen and carbon dioxide into a viable (both process and energy input) synthetic fuel that emits only as much as it contains and has an energy density even vaguely close to current hydrocarbons is going to win the world.

Investing is fun. Counting is a numbers game "Linde will invest more than $1bn in decarbonisation initiatives and triple the amount of clean hydrogen production by 2028, the industrial gas giant has set out in its 2020 Sustainable Development Report."

A billion from a wanbe is hot air. Linde /BOC is a giant [thumbsupbig] this is happening now in so many locations with more money than I can get my head around some days [biggrin] I wonder if the more than Billion is Euro or USD[bigwhistle]Not really bothered which[biggrin]

[DiscoMick]

Physics isn't a problem. Local sub stations with batteries will store surplus solar and release it on demand, to smooth the grid. Solar and wind generators are also installing batteries and making profits.

Five large-scale community batteries to be integrated into the Sunshine-absorbent State’s substations – pv magazine Australia (https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2021/03/25/five-large-scale-community-batteries-to-be-integrated-into-the-sunshine-absorbent-states-substations/)

[BradC]

Physics isn't a problem. Local sub stations with batteries will store surplus solar and release it on demand, to smooth the grid. Solar and wind generators are also installing batteries and making profits.

If you think batteries are the answer, you don't understand the problem. Anyone can build a battery system and make it work. Now try to do that over a time frame to make the battery environmentally sustainable. We make them, we use them, we throw them away because recycling them is more expensive than dumping them and building new ones.

You can't service and maintain a battery to last 50+ years like you can a boiler and turbine. Batteries are a short term solution to a long term problem and should be seen as nothing more than a stop gap while proper investment is put into sustainable technology.

Of course there's a lot of money to be made in disposable energy storage, so while that's happening we're not playing the long game.

[Tombie]

Physics isn't a problem. Local sub stations with batteries will store surplus solar and release it on demand, to smooth the grid. Solar and wind generators are also installing batteries and making profits.

Five large-scale community batteries to be integrated into the Sunshine-absorbent State’s substations – pv magazine Australia (https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2021/03/25/five-large-scale-community-batteries-to-be-integrated-into-the-sunshine-absorbent-states-substations/)

It’s an enormous problem.

Batteries etc run HUGE cooling systems.
So do wind turbines.
(Obviously Coal etc are low yield also)

To be effective we need a low energy loss system.
Physics currently states there won’t be parity as losses are huge.

Countering these losses requires big footprints.

[Homestar]

Physics isn't a problem. Local sub stations with batteries will store surplus solar and release it on demand, to smooth the grid. Solar and wind generators are also installing batteries and making profits.

Five large-scale community batteries to be integrated into the Sunshine-absorbent State’s substations – pv magazine Australia (https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2021/03/25/five-large-scale-community-batteries-to-be-integrated-into-the-sunshine-absorbent-states-substations/)

Sorry but as an Engineer who works with the grid, Physics is EXACTLY the problem…

[PhilipA]

I don't know if the Guardian article is paywalled through Microsoft, but the crux of the article is that Britain is desperately paying hugh sums ogf money to have coal power stations supply enough electricity to keep the lights on as even though there is low demand at the moment there is little wind, and gas supplies are limited.
NSW of the future.
Britain’s last coal power stations to be paid huge sums to keep lights on (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/news/britain-s-last-coal-power-stations-to-be-paid-huge-sums-to-keep-lights-on/ar-AAOoRVy?ocid=msedgntp)

I am surprised none of our Guardian quoters are not posting this article .
I wonder why?
Regards PhilipA

[PhilipA]

Another article on European energy prices.


According to the Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/energy-prices-in-europe-hit-records-after-wind-stops-blowing-11631528258'mc_cid=4ca9f7e579&mc_eid=c84e24260d) yesterday, due to a rare lack of North Sea wind, already high European energy prices are climbing higher.

“Gas and coal-fired electricity plants were called in to make up the shortfall from wind.
Natural-gas prices, already boosted by the pandemic recovery and a lack of fuel in storage caverns and tanks, hit all-time highs. Thermal coal, long shunned for its carbon emissions, has emerged from a long price slump as utilities are forced to turn on backup power sources.”
https://149366104.v2.pressablecdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/USA_Europe_electricity_prices-2-720x411.png (https://andymaypetrophysicist.files.wordpress.com/2021/09/usa_europe_electricity_prices-2.png)Prices in the U.K have jumped. The inset graph shows average U.S. wholesale electricity prices from the EIA for 2021 in $/MWh but scaled to be roughly equivalent to the EUROs in the larger graph.
“Two U.K. energy retailers—PFP Energy and MoneyPlus Energy—went out of business when electricity prices spiked this month. The companies, with a combined 94,000 gas and power customers, didn’t return requests for comment.
Winners include U.S. and Russian companies exporting gas to Europe, as well as renewable-power suppliers producing electricity with near-zero operating costs. Shares of Cheniere Energy Inc., a major U.S. exporter of liquefied natural gas, have risen 47% this year.”

Funny how quiet the "75%s" are
Regards PhilipA

[Homestar]

Yep, when the wind doesn't blow or the sun isn't shining, there are limited things other than burning fossil fuels at the moment unfortunately.

On a windy, sunny day 75% and more is achievable in lots of places, but that doesn't mean 75% all the time. Not sure of the exact numbers but overall would be quite low I think.

With Yallourn now scheduled for closing that will only leave Loy Yang here in Vic to do the heavy lifting - along with dozens of small gas plants and the wind/solar - I think we're heading for a large problem in the next 10 years.

[DiscoMick]

I read Australia averaged 30% renewable electricity nationwide last year, so there's still a way to go. The states have good policies, but not much is happening federally.

[Homestar]

I read Australia averaged 30% renewable electricity nationwide last year, so there's still a way to go. The states have good policies, but not much is happening federally.


According to this Government website (Geoscience Australia) - Coal and gas make up 91% of all electrical generation in Australia. Overview | Geoscience Australia (https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/energy/overview)

Now there's no date on this so happy to be corrected by your data, but this is all I managed to find.



Australia’s primary energy consumption is dominated by coal (around 40 per cent), oil (34 per cent) and gas (22 per cent). Coal accounts for about 75 per cent of Australia’s electricity generation, followed by gas (16 per cent), hydro (5 per cent) and wind around (2 per cent)."

[Tombie]

Our lovely new Cooling fan array up the road was effectively burning energy last Saturday.
All their cooling packs were operational, and now a single unit producing energy.

Why? Almost zero wind… which in a twisted irony is quite common here between April and October - when solar output is lower.

And the whole, once pristine landscape now looks like a giants birthday cake - it’s disgusting.

[W&KO]

And the whole, once pristine landscape now looks like a giants birthday cake - it’s disgusting.

Agree…..it’s destroying the views and landscape

I drive through Warwick every second week and the solar farm is an eyesore and has consumed prime agriculture land. I wonder how many houses the solar farm actually provide guaranteed power 24/7 for 12 months.

Personally I cannot see the world or even australia getting anywhere near close to having a sustainable renewable energy solution for the masses………

the world is just too power hungry…..

there is either a new solution that hasn’t been made public to it’s going to take a new invention……otherwise the world is toast

[DiscoMick]

Huge potential, if we get more determined.

The world is hungry for solar panels. Why did we stop making them?
The world is hungry for solar panels. Why did we stop making them? - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-09-19/solar-panels-why-australia-stopped-making-them-china/100466342)

[PhilipA]

OK, I guess all know I am sceptical about the future of solar but there is obviously some big money behind it.
I have attached a photo of the Breakers Club ( golf, Bowls, RSL) at Wamberal on the Central Coast of NSW.
There has just now been built 4 frames over the car park and 3 are now apparently commissioned.
Each frame has 11x10 solar panels so when the 4 are finished it will be 440panels. this is in addition to about 200 on the roof of the club.

173698

That is a ****load of power and it also provides shade in the car Park so a win win.
I do not know the financial arrangements but I guess I assume the club does not own them. I have asked my wife who knows the CEO to find out.
Regards PhilipA

[NavyDiver]

OK, I guess all know I am sceptical about the future of solar but there is obviously some big money behind it.
I have attached a photo of the Breakers Club ( golf, Bowls, RSL) at Wamberal on the Central Coast of NSW.
There has just now been built 4 frames over the car park and 3 are now apparently commissioned.
Each frame has 11x10 solar panels so when the 4 are finished it will be 440panels. this is in addition to about 200 on the roof of the club.

173698

That is a ****load of power and it also provides shade in the car Park so a win win.
I do not know the financial arrangements but I guess I assume the club does not own them. I have asked my wife who knows the CEO to find out.
Regards PhilipA

While on a long dive Visit to Northern NSW South QLD pre covid. I parked in a shopping centre which has the same Solar panel roof over a lot of the car parking. Highly sort after parking spots mid January ! [thumbsupbig]

Great idea as I assume pay back sub 3 years when using all that power to cool the buildings mid summer.
Does the the beer fridge at the golf club would now provide green beer Phillip?[biggrin]

[Homestar]

Huge potential, if we get more determined.

The world is hungry for solar panels. Why did we stop making them?
The world is hungry for solar panels. Why did we stop making them? - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-09-19/solar-panels-why-australia-stopped-making-them-china/100466342)

Thought it was like all manufacturing here and it was too expensive.

[Tombie]

Yes. Straight up cost base killed us.
Then economy of scale went further and obliterated us.

[JDNSW]

As I have commented in various threads - Australia has never been a suitable place for manufacturing. We have far stricter social and environmental constraints and higher fuel and electricity costs than the major manufacturing economies. Add to this a small and scattered domestic market and distance from overseas markets as well as a high currency exchange rate that is propped up by the primary product exports that enable the country to afford the high wages, good working conditions and environmental constraints.

Manufacturing in Australia can only be competitive for specialist niche products, and where some form of subsidy or protection is provided. While this protection can be justified for strategic products (from face masks to vaccines to ordnance), it is difficult to make any sort of case for subsidies for manufacturing commodity goods such as solar panels.

In the early days of European settlement in Australia, there was significant local manufacturing because of very long lead times both to order overseas goods and to ship them. As shipping and communications improved, especially with steamships, railways and telegraphs, local manufacturing declined. This was accelerated by the discovery of gold and the following mining boom (still very much with us), which among other things enabled shorter working hours and, by the third quarter of the nineteenth century, the highest living standard in the world.

Manufacturing had a bit of a boom during WW1 due to the shipping shortage, but was largely, although not entirely dismantled, with, for example, the ban on import of complete cars (started during the war to save on shipping space) maintained due to union pressure to maintain jobs in the car industry.

With the Great Depression resulting in job losses, and into the thirties the threat of war, more manufacturing started up, with government subsidies and protection ramping up. During WW2 there were massive advances in manufacturing by necessity, with war on our doorstep and imports even more constrained than during the previous war.
After the war, Australia ramped up manufacturing, with ever increasing subsidies and protection. As communications improved, transport costs decreased, and Australians became more aware of how the other developed economies lived, voters became more and more restive about high subsidies and the resulting high personal income tax, and paying high prices for limited goods that tended to be outdated by world standards.

This led to the winding back of protection from the early seventies under successive (mostly Labor) governments. The inevitable result was the shutting down of most of the protected industries.

[PhilipA]

Interesting report in Microsoft News today reprinted from Sydney Morning Herald that AEMO is suing Neoen for non performance by Hornsdale.
Regulator sues Tesla Big Battery in Federal Court over power grid promises (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/company-news/regulator-sues-tesla-big-battery-in-federal-court-over-power-grid-promises/ar-AAOIB1x?ocid=msedgntp)

Also Clive Palmer proposing new HELE Coal Power station near Barcaldine. I knew about this a while ago as relative is doing the feasibility study.

Regards PhilipA

[NavyDiver]

Interesting report in Microsoft News today reprinted from Sydney Morning Herald that AEMO is suing Neoen for non performance by Hornsdale.
Regulator sues Tesla Big Battery in Federal Court over power grid promises (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/company-news/regulator-sues-tesla-big-battery-in-federal-court-over-power-grid-promises/ar-AAOIB1x?ocid=msedgntp)

Also Clive Palmer proposing new HELE Coal Power station near Barcaldine. I knew about this a while ago as relative is doing the feasibility study.

Regards PhilipA
Titanic sunk. QLd nickle............ and the coal power plant is only happening if Billions++++ of your taxes get into his hands[biggrin]

[PhilipA]

Titanic sunk. QLd nickle............ and the coal power plant is only happening if Billions++++ of your taxes get into his hands
So how different to wind power????
Regards PhilipA

[trout1105]

So how different to wind power????
Regards PhilipA

Clive Palmer is not involved [bigwhistle]

[ramblingboy42]

In a surprise move BHP have decided to go alternate power from the Pt Augusta Energy Park.

Before BHP bought Olympic Dam from Western Mining the company (Western mining) had already proposed expansion into the worlds biggest copper mine and had included plans to build it's own coal fired power station fed by the nearby Leigh Creek coal mine.

It's funny how things change so quickly , Leigh Creek has basically closed, the rail line is not being used , the coal fired power station at Pt Augusta which fed Olympic Dam has been demolished and a new energy park at Pt Augusta has been established , BHP have got out of coal and everyone appears to be happy. A new power line has been constructed to Olympic Dam and world demand for copper ensures a long future for the mine.

The other funny (not really funny) is that Roxby Downs is succumbing to the increasing preference to FIFO workforce and all the amenities in the town are regretfully closing.

One could do lot worse than buy a house there cheaply and retire at the back door to some of Australia's most pristine deserts , quaint outback townships and good 4wd adventures.

[Homestar]

Roxby Downs is a **** hole and hasn’t had anything much there for years. One Motel where anyone not staying at the mine camp stays a couple of pubs and a small shopping centre.

I’ve spent way too much time there over the years and it’s the sort of place you can’t wait to leave.

High crime rates, nothing to do and very few services.

Have fun. [emoji106][emoji16]

[scarry]

the world is just too power hungry…..

And in most countries,EV’s haven’t really started…..

[NavyDiver]

And in most countries,EV’s haven’t really started…..

Drove past a Servo on the way to work and by the time I drove back tonight the price had hit a OMG mark, Suspect the time frame of not having a EV or FCEV may be a bit shorter than some understand. Not suggesting the Disco is redundant yet for some roles- Very happy it is parked at the moment. A headline from north of here
Sydney petrol prices heading towards most expensive on record (https://www.9news.com.au/national/petrol-prices-sydney-could-be-most-expensive-ever-crude-oil-cost-peaks/8ac42c57-0153-489a-a82b-053c7dd1c334)

My cheap ev fuel cost is mind-numbingly low, The Service costs are even more so![biggrin]

[Tombie]

Drove past a Servo on the way to work and by the time I drove back tonight the price had hit a OMG mark, Suspect the time frame of not having a EV or FCEV may be a bit shorter than some understand. Not suggesting the Disco is redundant yet for some roles- Very happy it is parked at the moment. A headline from north of here
Sydney petrol prices heading towards most expensive on record (https://www.9news.com.au/national/petrol-prices-sydney-could-be-most-expensive-ever-crude-oil-cost-peaks/8ac42c57-0153-489a-a82b-053c7dd1c334)

My cheap ev fuel cost is mind-numbingly low, The Service costs are even more so![biggrin]

Yes, however my vehicle is free hold, so 30k buys me a lot of Dino juice, plenty of servicing and they didn’t tear up a small nation for the power plant [emoji41]

[Tombie]

Further to that - I’ll be watching to see where fuel cell tech goes and decide down the track!

[Homestar]

Drove past a Servo on the way to work and by the time I drove back tonight the price had hit a OMG mark, Suspect the time frame of not having a EV or FCEV may be a bit shorter than some understand. Not suggesting the Disco is redundant yet for some roles- Very happy it is parked at the moment. A headline from north of here
Sydney petrol prices heading towards most expensive on record (https://www.9news.com.au/national/petrol-prices-sydney-could-be-most-expensive-ever-crude-oil-cost-peaks/8ac42c57-0153-489a-a82b-053c7dd1c334)

My cheap ev fuel cost is mind-numbingly low, The Service costs are even more so![biggrin]

Lucky enough to have had company vehicles for the last 25 years so the only fuel I have to buy is for the toys which I can live with. Partner also has a company car so we’ll look at EV/Hydrogen etc in 20 years when we retire - there should be some usable tech around by then I hope. [emoji106]

[PhilipA]

They are being ripped off in Sydney.
91 at Metro West Gosford was 140.9 yesterday.
At Pennant Hills it was AFAIR 279.9 at the two Shells and 98 was over $2!
39cents difference!
Even the woke NRMA PR bloke said a few weeks ago that petrol stations were making 18cents per litre over wholesale.

Regards PhilipA

[NavyDiver]

They are being ripped off in Sydney.
91 at Metro West Gosford was 140.9 yesterday.
At Pennant Hills it was AFAIR 279.9 at the two Shells and 98 was over $2!
39cents difference!
Even the woke NRMA PR bloke said a few weeks ago that petrol stations were making 18cents per litre over wholesale.

Regards PhilipA

For a short time Phillip. The price is up as demand is increasing and supply is static and capped untill the oil rich types hit the very high price target they have planned for us all
"LONDON — Oil prices climbed to multi-year highs shortly after a group of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers opted against a big supply boost.
Now energy analysts believe crude prices could be poised to rally toward $100 a barrel.

" Link (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/05/oil-prices-analysts-see-a-prolonged-rally-as-opec-sticks-to-its-plan.html)
From $30 per barrel to over $80 and still going up[bigwhistle]

Not a pretty graph at all for our oil burners (https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/)

[scarry]

LPG is a record around herel,$110/L .

That's if its available,over the last couple of years, half the servos around here have taken their LPG bowsers,tanks,etc out.

[ramblingboy42]

last time this happened I still had the D2 and in some supermarkets I could buy vegge oils cheaper than diesel so I mixed it about 50/50 ....the disco didn't mind at all...the td5 really was/is an amazing engine.

I'd be too scared to try it in a puma.

[NavyDiver]

Wind and solar are great yet I think we must have hydrogen and Nuclear. A new rather concise study puts some of the sizing issues IF we limited to just wind/solar to replace C02 power sources



"Dive Brief:

The reserve margin on the ISO New England system may need to increase from about 15% to 300% by 2040 in some scenarios, as more renewables are added and dispatchable generation is retired to meet state clean energy goals, according to a July 29 report from the grid operator.
The first phase of the ISO’s Future Grid Reliability Study (https://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2022/07/2021_economic_study_future_grid_reliability_study_ phase_1_report.pdf) models a variety of decarbonization scenarios in 2040 and concludes they “may require a significant amount of gas or stored fuels to support variable resources.”
A scenario where reliability criteria are met using only solar, wind and storage, would challenge the transmission system and require “an outsized amount of land or offshore areas” for wind and solar farms, the report found. Link to report (https://www.utilitydive.com/news/new-england-future-grid-study-iso/628622/)

"

Add new power needed for Aluminum and D.R.I. steel and heavy industry/ transport and shipping and the questions gets possibly problematic for just one or two soloutions. Horses for courses I think

[NavyDiver]

hold on to your legs and kiss your ??? good bye?
AGL announces it will close Loy Yang A power station in Victoria's Latrobe Valley up to 10 years sooner than plannedThe statement also said the company remained on track to close its Bayswater coal plant in the NSW Hunter Valley between 2030 and 2033.
(https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-29/agl-to-close-loy-yang-a-power-station-in-2035/101484748)The Loy Yang A power station is one of Victoria's newest coal-fired power stations and produces 2,210 megawatts (MW) of electricity, about 30 per cent of the state's total. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-29/agl-to-close-loy-yang-a-power-station-in-2035/101484748)



The Victorian government has announced renewable energy storage capacity targets and a $157 million package to boost renewable energy generation and storage.
(https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-28/victoria-renewable-energy-storage-batteries/101483468)
The targets aim for 2.6 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy storage by 2030 and 6.3GW of storage by 2035. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-28/victoria-renewable-energy-storage-batteries/101483468)



2.6 gWh of storage is thin plus at times! Vic daily graph (https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/styles/accc_aer_statistics_full_view/private/AER_Contract%20prices_Daily%20base%20contract%20pr ices%20and%20volume%20traded%20VIC%20Q1%20CHART_2_ 20220719100620.png?itok=qGBKVdEI)


QLD big pumped hydro (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-29/qld-will-be-home-to-worlds-largest-pumped-hydro-scheme/14068986)


No Nuclear Power news in OZ of course- we are to smart[bigwhistle]

I need to rename a spreadsheet I have. A Power Doomsday Clock was one thought I considered. All that money and really only 50% or so coverage some of the time[bigwhistle]

Note Hydrogen storage when /if it occurs as a storage medium might change this negative view [thumbsupbig]

[Homestar]

That decision pretty much guarantees safe employment for me until I retire, but I feel for what the valley will go through again - and Yallourn PS is on borrowed time as well.

It’s a perfect spot for a nuclear power station - all the infrastructure is there and the locals wouldn’t have a NIMBY complex about it.

If they have the green light today it would be mostly done by the time Loy Yang was decommissioned.

[NavyDiver]

That decision pretty much guarantees safe employment for me until I retire, but I feel for what the valley will go through again - and Yallourn PS is on borrowed time as well.

It’s a perfect spot for a nuclear power station - all the infrastructure is there and the locals wouldn’t have a NIMBY complex about it.

If they have the green light today it would be mostly done by the time Loy Yang was decommissioned.

Going through Morwell and close by there is sad and has been for decades. It has so much potential I think. The wasted money on Coal - to hydrogen to Japan with carbon capture ( it did not do any carbon capture) was poltical spin I think not science. I did like the ship as it showed the transport at near absolute zero

Methane capture and Hazer hydrogen pyrolysis and Nuclear power would /could make the Latrobe valley a power house plus.

Add C02 free spare Nuclear power (and wind and solar) to the Desalination plant for water when Droughts return and also to hydrogen electrolysis for storage and export and then chat with Japan, China and EU I think [thumbsupbig]

Or we could bury out head in the sand of course [thumbsupbig]

[DiscoMick]

Nuclear will never happen in Australia. Its very expensive, would take at least a decade to build, the electricity would be so expensive taxpayers would have to subsidise to make it affordable and it creates highly radioactive wastes to store for thousands of years. Why would you choose nuclear when there are much cheaper, faster and safer alternatives?

I read AGL is planning to spend $20b on storage and renewables.
The trend is clear at Gladstone and the Hunter, which is to turn them into renewable energy hubs by upgrading the existing transmission networks and adding hydrogen, batteries and renewables.
Qld will also have 4 pumped hydro stations - the existing one at Wivenhoe, the one being built near Townsville and new pumped hydro at Borumba near Gympie and near Mackay. It is also building a new gas plant which could run on hydrogen.

NZ is showing the way. It has already passed 80%, mainly from hydro and geo-thermal.

[dirvine]

NZ is showing the way. It has already passed 80%, mainly from hydro and geo-thermal.[/QUOTE]

And has nearly the highest charge rate to consumers per KWhr from what I have read. Perhaps they should go solar and wind. We have been told that energy is free and electricity will be cheaper. I wont hold my breath!!!

[scarry]

NZ is showing the way. It has already passed 80%, mainly from hydro and geo-thermal.

And has nearly the highest charge rate to consumers per KWhr from what I have read. Perhaps they should go solar and wind. We have been told that energy is free and electricity will be cheaper. I wont hold my breath!!![/QUOTE]

No surprise there,power will never be cheaper going to renewables,that is a given.

The big issue is also reliability,no doubt that will get worse as well,as has happened in other places around the globe.

[trout1105]

NZ is showing the way. It has already passed 80%, mainly from hydro and geo-thermal.

Not surprising when you consider that NZ is virtually a giant volcano (geo thermal) and its annual rainfall far exceeds anything in Australia so it also has plenty of water to play with.

Renewables DO have an important roll in our power grid But untill they can come up with a system that will provide power 24/7 RELIABLY nuclear power is a FAR cleaner option to coal or even gas fired generators.
Remember that we have come a bloody long way since Chernobyl was built/designed and we also has massive deposits of fuel for these reactors in Australia as well.

[NavyDiver]

Nuclear will never happen in Australia. Its very expensive, would take at least a decade to build, the electricity would be so expensive taxpayers would have to subsidise to make it affordable and it creates highly radioactive wastes to store for thousands of years. Why would you choose nuclear when there are much cheaper, faster and safer alternatives?



It may or may not be true Mick.
Its very expensive,
Bespoke was expensive. Mass production is already starting with China for example suggesting they can build 10 old school Nuclear per year. 88 Small Nuclear reactors are in advanced planing stages. Costs are falling very very fast and will fall even faster I think.


would take at least a decade to build,
Australian Climate council suggests it is “9.4 years to build”

84 months is the Medium time across the world (https://www.statista.com/statistics/712841/median-construction-time-for-reactors-since-1981/) – You can do the maths to see Australian Climate council cherry picked. If I cherry picked I would point out four years or less in China! That is for the Large old school ones as well!

SMR build and construction times ‘may’ be “An SMR has a projected construction time of three to five years, while a large reactor takes six to 12 years. And it is possible to construct a reactor with a single module or use units in combination for greater power output (https://www.ansto.gov.au/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-and-what-makes-them-different).” ANSTO who know a lot more than the climate council





the electricity would be so expensive taxpayers would have to subsidise to make it affordable
No power, Not enough power or not reliable power is about to show what poor planning does in the Northern Hemisphere particularly in the European Union. If you want a BMW, VW or other item built in Germany get it quickly!


it creates highly radioactive wastes to store for thousands of years.
Myth # 5: There is no solution for huge amounts of nuclear waste being generated.
Truth: All of the used nuclear fuel generated in every nuclear plant in the past 50 years would fill a football field to a depth of less than 10 yards, and 96 % of this ​“waste” can be recycled [5]. Used fuel is currently being safely stored. The U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the equivalent scientific advisory panels in every major country support geological disposal of such wastes as the preferred safe method for their ultimate disposal and
Myth # 9: Used nuclear fuel is deadly for 10,000 years.

Truth: Used nuclear fuel can be recycled to make new fuel and byproducts [10]. Most of the waste from this process will require a storage time of less than 300 years. Finally, less than 1% is radioactive for 10,000 years. This portion is not much more radioactive than some things found in nature, and can be easily shielded to protect humans and wildlife. Link (https://www.anl.gov/article/10-myths-about-nuclear-energy)

Why would you choose nuclear when there are much cheaper, faster and safer alternatives?

Solar, Hydro, Wind.... are all helpful. None are 100% Wind is 25%, Wind is 50% and hydro is weather dependent and we can all recall or see droughts impacting here and all over the world right now. Hover Dam is one to watch?

Calling them cheap is also questionable with trillions invested in them and clearly where that has occurred are in some of the worst and least reliable power! They are fine. They are only part of the required solution for almost everywhere. If you want to trust wind, solar.... 100% I suspect your in for a shock like all the places who did that including Germany and California.

I might be wrong of course. I hate nuclear weapons myself and fully understand why most people hate them as well.

Anti Nuclear is a bit one eyed perhaps? Confusing weapons with Nuclear power, Nuclear Medicine and similar is a bit like blaming roads for drunk drivers. Nuclear Medicine unquestionably saved my life or at the very least allowed amazing Doctors to fix the many broken or smashed bones.

Two of the amazing Doctors from ANSTO are likely to fund my retirement [bigwhistle]


Edit this was rather good I thought. It is on safety. IF we also added small land area required and scale of power output per kilogram only one of the two safest would be streets ahead.[bigwhistle]

181190

[NavyDiver]

I have to add molten salts storage and natrium reactors via Bill Gates .... ( not my company or yours yet) suggest 30% nuclear with storage like molten salts storage or my favourite Hydrogen Need the 70%
or so wind, solar and similar C02 free power


The claimed integration by the new Natrium nuclear power plant which will be located in Kemmerer funded largely by US Government and the seed capital by Mr Gates and co are great yet note the molten salts storage and Hydrogen fit well with wind, solar and similar C02 free power.

A former sailor who is Nuclear sub reactor expert is working for Terra Power via his interview gave a bit to much information to impart with out sounding like I am ranting so I will shhhh

It could be hype or I hope it is safe and almost ready to build and multiply via the two + companies I know are striving to help. Not just fund my retirement[bigwhistle]

A Hydrogen /Musk/ Tesla challenge is very very very worth watching I think as it has massive implications to our 4wd and towing passions [thumbsupbig] Paris -Dakar is a hint on that one[biggrin]

[DiscoMick]

Renewables are already the cheapest form of electricity generation by far, which is why coal generation is already uncompetitive when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing. Hydro and batteries will make that true all the time.
I see the Qld energy plan predicts in 10 years it will make electricity charges 15% lower than if it had not happened.
One of the new plants is configured to use sugar as a feedstock, predicted to double sugarcane production in Qld.

And has nearly the highest charge rate to consumers per KWhr from what I have read. Perhaps they should go solar and wind. We have been told that energy is free and electricity will be cheaper. I wont hold my breath!!!

No surprise there,power will never be cheaper going to renewables,that is a given.

The big issue is also reliability,no doubt that will get worse as well,as has happened in other places around the globe.[/QUOTE]

[Tombie]

Renewables aren’t cheaper - they’re subsidised to the hilt.

Renewables ironically need continual renewing to maintain outputs.

Batteries have finite life and pay back is well beyond life span at the moment. Solar only pays back owners quickly if the FIT is great otherwise it is a long time to recover - can be reduced if you change all your habits (and can accomodate them) by using your power as generated - otherwise it’s difficult.

Example: my FIT well and truly exceeds purchase price.
So I can generate cash all day, and run all my washing etc at night and I’m well in front.

My mate, on a pitiful FIT is better off doing his laundry etc during the day and using as little as possible at night.

Problem is he works all day and has to do all this stuff in the evenings - so really all his system is doing is running his fridge during the day for free and giving almost free energy to the grid. He looked at battery storage - the price to install will mean he’s still paying it off when they cells need replacing.

[DiscoMick]

Coal is also heavily subsidised, so it's not one or the other.

[PhilipA]

Coal is also heavily subsidised, so it's not one or the other.Er how many billions in taxation revenue does coal generate?The entire Australian economy is currently being supported by coal , iron ore and gas exports.It is LUDICROUS to suggest that coal is subsidised. Regards PhilipA

[scarry]

Er how many billions in taxation revenue does coal generate?

That is why we will still be digging it out of the ground for many decades to come.
There is really no other option.

[DiscoMick]

I see the federal budget contains funding for 400 community batteries, so that's a good start towards having a battery in every electricity sub-station, storing surplus solar and releasing it when needed.

[drivesafe]

I see the federal budget contains funding for 400 community batteries, so that's a good start towards having a battery in every electricity sub-station, storing surplus solar and releasing it when needed.
I'm sorry but this is a truck load of horse Do-Do.

So far these batteries are good for a few hours at best.

We will not need hours of emergency power, we will need weeks or even months of emergency power.

When the rain stops, we will be in fore a HUGE drought.

Because of the low wind capacity during a drought, wind generators will be next to useless.

Solar has a major problem in that the hotter it gets, the less power a solar panel generates. So at the very time when we need solar, it will be at its worst.

And the biggest problem for renewables, is the lack of water.

This will mean the biggest producer of renewable energy, HYDRO, will not have the water it needs to produce the electricity we will desperately be needing it.

Thanks to the gang-green party and all its dumb followers, we will be short of coal fired power stations.

If you think I am just ****ing into the wind, this is exactly what is happening in California RIGHT NOW.

Their prolonged drought means they can not use their Hydro and they have shut down some of the nuclear power stations.

Europe, specifically Germany, has started reactivating their coal fired power stations.

Coal fired power stations are here and are here to stay.

[JDNSW]

Drought and lack of wind do not necessarily go together - I suspect you are extrapolating from North America, which is topographically and climatically very different from Eastern Australia, where most electricity in Australia is required.

And Australia does not and never will be in a position to use hydro as a major energy source - there is simply not enough water or variation in elevation, whether we are in drought or not.

Similarly, yes, solar efficiency does decrease with increase in temperature, but the effect is relatively minor, and more than compensated for by the longer periods of sunlight which accompany hot weahter and droughts.

It is absolutely clear that there is no good reason why Australia can not stop using coal in the relatively near future, even if it requires some use of gas in the interim as the solar and wind capability is increased, if only to provide enough generator capability that can react instantly to power demand (which is the main reason for needing battery/hydro).

Australia stopping thermal coal exports* (or for that matter gas exports) is a completely different kettle of fish - it is not a technical problem, it is an economic one. Not only does the coal industry support a lot of Australians directly and indirectly, but it is a major factor in supporting the $A exchange rate and hence the Australian standard of living**. And in addition, royalties and taxes both directly and indirectly from coal and gas exports are a major revenue source for the Commonwealth, NSW, Qld, and WA governments, and to a lesser extent NT.

*Currently there is no real substitute for metallurgical coal. In theory hydrogen can be used instead, but putting this into practice requires replacing almost the entire steelmaking infrastructure at enormous expense. And coal is a lot cheaper than hydrogen, even hydrogen from natural gas, which is a lot cheaper than hydrogen from electrolysis using green power.

** If coal exports cease, the $A will decline in value, meaning that everything imported gets more expensive. OK, you say, make it here! Right, but the only reason it becomes practical to do this is because it can be sold for a higher price. So it still raises the cost of living. This is not to say that there is no reason to support stopping coal exports, but don't pretend it is a costless exercise!

[drivesafe]

Thank heavens the rest of the world is not as stupid as some are here.

Just before Christmas last year, a coal mining company in Queensland changed its long term supply contract from 2.8 million tonnes of coal for 45 years to 3.2 million tonnes over 75 years.

Australia will be benefiting from the sale of coal long after we are all dead.

[drivesafe]

Wind power works so well. Just look at the UK.

The winter was so mild last year that their huge investment in wind generators not only failed to meet their BASIC needs, because of the shortage of electricity supply, the average power bill rose by 800%.

Yep bring it on Australia.

The problem is so bad in the UK, they are now planning to build one new nuclear power station every year, for the next ten years.

[PhilipA]

Nah the poms can import more woodchips from the USA (on diesel? trains then diesel? ships) and classify them as renewables they do for 10% of their power now.
Figures cannot lie but liars can figure.
Regards PhilipA

[NavyDiver]

Drought and lack of wind do not necessarily go together - I suspect you are extrapolating from North America, which is topographically and climatically very different from Eastern Australia, where most electricity in Australia is required.

And Australia does not and never will be in a position to use hydro as a major energy source - there is simply not enough water or variation in elevation, whether we are in drought or not.

Similarly, yes, solar efficiency does decrease with increase in temperature, but the effect is relatively minor, and more than compensated for by the longer periods of sunlight which accompany hot weahter and droughts.

It is absolutely clear that there is no good reason why Australia can not stop using coal in the relatively near future, even if it requires some use of gas in the interim as the solar and wind capability is increased, if only to provide enough generator capability that can react instantly to power demand (which is the main reason for needing battery/hydro).

Australia stopping thermal coal exports* (or for that matter gas exports) is a completely different kettle of fish - it is not a technical problem, it is an economic one. Not only does the coal industry support a lot of Australians directly and indirectly, but it is a major factor in supporting the $A exchange rate and hence the Australian standard of living**. And in addition, royalties and taxes both directly and indirectly from coal and gas exports are a major revenue source for the Commonwealth, NSW, Qld, and WA governments, and to a lesser extent NT.

*Currently there is no real substitute for metallurgical coal. In theory hydrogen can be used instead, but putting this into practice requires replacing almost the entire steelmaking infrastructure at enormous expense. And coal is a lot cheaper than hydrogen, even hydrogen from natural gas, which is a lot cheaper than hydrogen from electrolysis using green power.

** If coal exports cease, the $A will decline in value, meaning that everything imported gets more expensive. OK, you say, make it here! Right, but the only reason it becomes practical to do this is because it can be sold for a higher price. So it still raises the cost of living. This is not to say that there is no reason to support stopping coal exports, but don't pretend it is a costless exercise!

We do have the most u308 in the entire world and the 3rd biggest miner by u308 volume who hides that fact very well :)

Coal is and will die in time. Not yet but give it a while.

I agree Batteries are largely small short term feel good money wasters- NOT talking about my whole Building UPS and many small off grid applications or even the important grid stabilization function the so called big batteries do well enough for some of the time just not all of the time every time.

PS everything is getting more expensive due to inflation and nothing to do with our coal exports[bigwhistle]

A company I like "PV1 provaris energy ltd (https://www.provaris.energy/)" NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE is making a good go of shipping c02 free Hydrogen "developing a 26,000 cu m compressed hydrogen carrier dubbed H2Neo, which is targeting approval for construction in mid-2023"

Note a Fleet of them is needed not one ship! (Hint there are 810 very large crude oil carriers now) [biggrin][biggrin][biggrin]

Money is a key and lots floating Money in this area via some sane and some insane project and ideas[biggrin] A lot are just HOT AIR. Grid scale lithium batteries are hot air! Some others just might help yet proof is required not just theory.

[DiscoMick]

The duration of charge batteries can deliver depends on the size of the battery and the amount of demand. Some can deliver for several hours, reducing the need to draw on other sources.
Solar panels are typically most efficient at about 26 degrees, right in the typical 20-30 degrees daily temperature range.
I've been pricing small lithium batteries of 200 amps for the caravan and the prices are definitely falling.
A power station at Gladstone is to be converted to run on hydrogen to supply a steelworks to export steel to markets which have import tariffs on steel made with fossil fuels.
Qld is also building a new gas electricity station. Gas production in Qld is tipped to rise significantly in the next decade.
The existing pumped hydro power station at Wivenhoe dam is to be supplemented by 3 more pumped hydro stations, which act like big batteries.
Coal exports will continue as long as there is international demand.
Coal stations here will continue to operate until they either are worn out or become redundant because of other energy sources.
The Qld govt didn't make the mistake of other states of selling off their power stations, so the government controls their future.
The Qld energy plan is pretty comprehensive and well worth reading.
WA has announced its last 2 coal power stations will close ahead of schedule in 2028.

[drivesafe]

Hi Mick, every single one of the above proposals/projects are unproven and whether they work or not, and most will not, are going to cost a fortune which we the tax payers and electricity bill payers will have to cover.

Hydrogen has a huge future but it is incredibly expensive to produce.

For every unit of hydrogen energy you need at least 1.5 units of some other form of energy to produce that 1 unit of hydrogen energy.

Thats is an insane waste of other forms of energy, right at the time when we are supposed to be saving energy.

All these “GREEN” projects are just ways for specific groups of people to make money, at everybody else’s expense.

Gas is going to be a big supplier of power over coal because it is cleaner, but it is only cleaner than coal because no one other than the Japanese are trying to clean up coal fired power supplies.

Any breakthrough in cleaning up coal use and it will remain the major supplier of electricity for the next century and further.

[drivesafe]

Similarly, yes, solar efficiency does decrease with increase in temperature, but the effect is relatively minor, and more than compensated for by the longer periods of sunlight which accompany hot weahter and droughts.

Reality is that solar panels see temperatures of 50c and at that temperature, the loss is NOT minor but as much as 30% loss.

They also have a lifespan of only 25 years at best which amounts to a total REAL cost of at least 2.6 times the initial cost to equal the normal lifespan of a coal fired power station.

There is just too much b/s around how good solar panels are!

[JDNSW]

Reality is that solar panels see temperatures of 50c and at that temperature, the loss is NOT minor but as much as 30% loss.

They also have a lifespan of only 25 years at best which amounts to a total REAL cost of at least 2.6 times the initial cost to equal the normal lifespan of a coal fired power station.

There is just too much b/s around how good solar panels are!

25 years after installation my original solar panels showed no measurable reduction in output. And in my experience, days with air temperatures up around the high forties were also among the days of best output, because they were long days of unobstructed sunshine.

These panels are no longer in use, the whole system having been replaced using panels with three times the output per panel.

While I have seen the life of panels quoted as 25 years, i have yet to see real evidence to support this. Although I have no doubt at all that some panels will have a limited life, there does not appear to be anything inherent in the technology that says this is necessarily the case.

[drivesafe]

The 25 year expected lifespan is what the solar industry quotes.

This I imagine would be based on what the total output capacity a solar would be at 25 years, not if the panel still worked.

I have no idea how they rate solar panels but I would expect it to be something like the way they rate lead acid batteries.

If a lead acid battery is no longer capable of supplying at least 80% of its original capacity, the industry recommends it be replaced.

It still works, but is down on capacity. So solar panels would probably have a similar rating.

[JDNSW]

In my experience, the output of solar panels doers not deteriorate significantly with age, unlike the example of lead acid batteries. The fundamental difference is that a battery operates using a reversible chemical reaction, which, in real life, is never exactly reversible, so that recharging the battery never restores it to exactly the original state. In the case of a lead acid battery this primarily takes the form of the creation of lead sulphate crystals that are much larger than in the original construction, and are either much less soluble, or damage the plate structure (or both).

In the case of a solar panel, there is no chemical reaction, the operation occurring at the subatomic level. There is no "cycle". The only reason for a limit to the life of the panel is deterioration of the construction materials due to exposure to the weather. This is very dependent on the design and the construction and on the climate to which it is exposed. These vary so much that the very conceopt of a specific "life" is ludicrous. And the industry has not really been in existence for long enough to have a real idea of how long the panels being put in service today will last. But we do know that a lot of the ones made 25 years ago are still producing close to their original output today. Note that some proportion of them do fail - due to manufacturing faults, or lightning or mechanical damage.

[Tombie]

Solar panels do wear out.. 3 different ways.

LID - initial usually working first 1000 hours due to now being exposed to light

PID - more rare and often from voltage differential in the panel itself

ARD - age repeated and due to the composition of the panel degrading from the light & heat

A reduction of 20% can be expected for 1 & 3 combined.
2 can result in up to 30% losses.

[Vern]

The 25 year expected lifespan is what the solar industry quotes.

This I imagine would be based on what the total output capacity a solar would be at 25 years, not if the panel still worked.

I have no idea how they rate solar panels but I would expect it to be something like the way they rate lead acid batteries.

If a lead acid battery is no longer capable of supplying at least 80% of its original capacity, the industry recommends it be replaced.

It still works, but is down on capacity. So solar panels would probably have a similar rating.Yep, it's exactly the same with panels, degrade to 80% (from memory) at 25 years.

[JDNSW]

In my actual experience, not memory, less than 10% degradation in 25 years.

[PhilipA]

The Australian headline today." WA to import coal from NSW"
ROTFL.
Regards PhilipA

[drivesafe]

In my actual experience, not memory, less than 10% degradation in 25 years.
This all depends on the original build quality.

I have two BPsolarx panels, one an 85ma 30+ year old mini panel, still going strong.

The second BPSolarx is a 90W 20 year old panel and again, still good.

I also have a number of different, Elcheapo panels bought for carrying out different experiments and they are from different suppliers.

Most of the small panels had degraded so much, I left them at my lass residents.

Some of the 10W and 20W panels are still usable and I will test them, when I get a chance, to see what they are still capable of.

Again, the quality of the panel is the ruling factor.

[JDNSW]

This all depends on the original build quality.

I have two BPsolarx panels, one an 85ma 30+ year old mini panel, still going strong.

The second BPSolarx is a 90W 20 year old panel and again, still good.

I also have a number of different, Elcheapo panels bought for carrying out different experiments and they are from different suppliers.

Most of the small panels had degraded so much, I left them at my lass residents.

Some of the 10W and 20W panels are still usable and I will test them, when I get a chance, to see what they are still capable of.

Again, the quality of the panel is the ruling factor.

Absolutely correct. Just illustrating that a blanket figure for life of panels of 25 years or "it's exactly the same with panels, degrade to 80% (from memory) at 25 years" is simply disinformation, either said carelessly or perhaps deliberately.

[drivesafe]

Absolutely correct. Just illustrating that a blanket figure for life of panels of 25 years or "it's exactly the same with panels, degrade to 80% (from memory) at 25 years" is simply disinformation, either said carelessly or perhaps deliberately.
Hi John and not having a shot at you, but you are making up standards based on just your experience.

The industry as a whole, apparently does have standards based on all types of panels so the results are measurable.

It still comes back to panels needing to be replaced at twice the rate an OLD type coal fired power station needs to be replaced, and as such, that make the panels twice as dear as they try to make out they are.

The "deliberate disinformation" is definitely coming from the renewables camp more so than the other way around.

[DiscoMick]

The original 3kw of 10 year old panels on our house were tested and found to be at near-new efficiency when we added panels to go to 6.8kw.
But they are a good quality brand. I'm sure there are dodgy panels around.

[DiscoMick]

We'll have to agree to disagree.
There's nothing unproven about pumped hydro, solar, wind, hydrogen or batteries, they are all mature technologies with a long history.

Hi Mick, every single one of the above proposals/projects are unproven and whether they work or not, and most will not, are going to cost a fortune which we the tax payers and electricity bill payers will have to cover.

Hydrogen has a huge future but it is incredibly expensive to produce.

For every unit of hydrogen energy you need at least 1.5 units of some other form of energy to produce that 1 unit of hydrogen energy.

Thats is an insane waste of other forms of energy, right at the time when we are supposed to be saving energy.

All these “GREEN” projects are just ways for specific groups of people to make money, at everybody else’s expense.

Gas is going to be a big supplier of power over coal because it is cleaner, but it is only cleaner than coal because no one other than the Japanese are trying to clean up coal fired power supplies.

Any breakthrough in cleaning up coal use and it will remain the major supplier of electricity for the next century and further.

[drivesafe]

We'll have to agree to disagree.
There's nothing unproven about pumped hydro, solar, wind, hydrogen or batteries, they are all mature technologies with a long history.
Long history yes, but few have a successful history.

Again, just look at the UK’s disastrous “experiment” with wind farming.

As I posted, just wait till we get into a major drought and see which power source gets us out of trouble.

[PhilipA]

There's nothing unproven about pumped hydro, solar, wind, hydrogen or batteries, they are all mature technologies with a long history.

Surely the use of hydrogen in motor vehicles is experimental and at High cost. maybe hydrogen genration is mature but not at a moderate cost and not "green"

Surely solar is now acknowleged to be only part of a solution as solar power is generated when few want or need it. It therefore requires an equal amount of alternative power to cover rain periods or simply night. It will be mature when solar farms are required to provide power 24 hours a day. I would like to see the cost then.

Wind. The average wind farm does not produce over 25-30% of its nameplate capacity.

Really hydro is really the only proven and reliable renewable energy and it also fails during droughts.

Batteries . how many Trillion dollars would it cost to have a day's network support? Isn't it around 400trillion?

Regards PhilipA

[NavyDiver]

Solar, wind and hydro are well know for the reliability and period of time they can provide power Its solar about 25%, Wind about 50% and Hydro about 90% plus IF rainfall and snow is sufficient as proven by historic low levels of the USA's Hoover Dam!

The "ABOUT" is clearly missing the point that 100% of the time some of us must have 100% reliable power. (PS Coal is not 100% nor is GAS) Vaccines, Life support, Butcher, Industry and business....... are not intermittent!

The repeated claims that renewables can cover all our power needs is green washing not factual or science based here and now reality. C02 free can only if Nuclear is included. Not here of course we are to smart!

Northern Territory is currently NOT taking solar farm power with out guarantee of supply. The Solar farm developer wants to supply part time at times and NT is not allowing that! Who pays the cost for part time power. It should be the Solar farm I think as the cost is reliability if not (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-04/solar-farm-developers-blast-nt-government/101614970?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web)!
"The Northern Territory government is being accused of anti-competitive behaviour and making a mockery of its renewable energy target, because it is blocking four solar farms it encouraged private companies to build from supplying electricity to its grid."

The whinging like this is common! Expecting Demanding others to pay huge cost to allow part time intermittent power supply such as Solar farms which is cheap and cheerful. Everyone including me is welcome to use the cheap power they have for products and users that can use intermittent power. That our electrical Grid is not intermittent is overlooked by far to much media and green washed by what I think are deluded environmental activists.

My battery back up systems to be 99.9% reliable cost me a packet! My solar saves some $. I cannot be in business if I was off grid with out spending well over $100,000 extra or more, every 10 years or so! I cannot afford to do that.



"ARE YOU READY TO LIVE INTERMITTENTLY WITH WIND? All jokes aside the consequences of intermittency on a fragilized grid are no laughing matter. The grid is after all our civilizational life support system." link (https://twitter.com/Dr_Keefer/status/1584211515015471104't=rZhK92uQUbY9GWU4HsHZtg&s=03)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwrCufzQvv8

[NavyDiver]

"
The "energy return on investment" or "EROI" of an energy type is an approximate measure of how much energy has to be expended in order to get it.
For example, it takes a certain amount of energy to dig an oil well, extract the oil, transport it, and refine it. But each barrel of oil recovered this way gives a much larger amount of energy back than what was required to get it. The return on energy invested is quite high, especially for conventional "easy to get to" oil.For an apples-to-apples comparison, if a given power source is going to be a large portion of our total electrical usage, we have to assume storage for it if it is variable/inconsistent. In other words, we can't just consider solar panels; we have to consider solar panels and battery storage together, since that is what it takes to replace the reliability of base load power."

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/30/saupload_full-e2a425148f28e1645d2a343c81cdd4f29e4e08c5.png

"
total amount of solar energy reaching the Earth's surface is immense, the amount of solar energy hitting any given square meter is low, and highly variable. That's why solar panels are a low-density power source, and a low-EROI power source."


There is really only one option to add to all the solar, wind and hydro power and that is Nuclear.
The link below is very concise and very well researched by Lyn Alden Schwartzer
Well worth a read I think.
Energy: Still A Major Problem | Seeking Alpha (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4551061-energy-still-major-problem)

[DiscoMick]

This story makes it clear why the WA govt wants to close its coal power stations by 2028 and move towards renewables and gas.
With 15% of WA's gas reserved for domestic use and the price capped, why would they stay with a failing coal power system?

Entire state's power system on the brink as Indian loan to Aussie miner Griffin Coal turns toxic
Entire state'&#39;'s power system on the brink as Indian loan to Aussie miner Griffin Coal turns toxic - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-06/power-on-the-brink-as-indian-coal-loan-turns-toxic/101612696)

[NavyDiver]

With 15% of WA's gas reserved for domestic use and the price capped, why would they stay with a failing coal power system?


I wonder how much gas WA can use? At Feb 2022 WA
" · Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade rose 0.4% (1.4 million tonnes) to 356 million tonnes in 2020. · Global LNG trade has grown by a compound annual rate of 4.9% over the past 10 years. · Most LNG trade is through long and medium‑term contracts (contracts with a duration of longer than four years). · In 2020, long and medium‑term contracts accounted for 60% (214 million tonnes) of global LNG trade. · The share of LNG trade through spot and short‑term contracts is growing, accounting for 40% (142 million tonnes) of global LNG trade in 2020 – the highest share on record. " Link (https://www.google.com/url'sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjClaKOp5j7AhUe83MBHfG6CV4QFnoECAgQAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wa.gov.au%2Fsystem%2Ffiles%2 F2022-03%2FWA%2520LNG%2520Profile%2520-%2520February%25202022.docx&usg=AOvVaw2RjZWiePR9X-zhvS_ixibG)


I doubt 15% on top of the 356m tonnes exported likely? If it was WA government would be a major domestic supplier to other states and problems others are having would be solved. [biggrin]

[DiscoMick]

I'm not sure if WA actually reserves the full 15% or if it reserves what it needs up to 15% and allows the rest to be exported.
I did read WA is planning a major increase in gas exports, despite environmental protests.
I suppose with most gas nationally locked up in long-term export contracts, it may not be a simple matter for the federal government to just apply a blanket reserve policy, as existing gas may already be contracted.
Maybe the answer is to apply a reserve rule to the proposed Beetalo field in the NT and pipe some to the East Coast, but that would require some new pipeline sections.
I also read the existing pipeline carrying Qld gas to NSW and Vic is at capacity, with the largest demand being from Vic.

[Tombie]

All this push towards renewables wont make much difference in real terms.

Magnetic shift and its impacts are going to make "Climate Change" and the push to other energies seem like a small almost insignificant issue.

[PhilipA]

Could someone advise of any major country in the World who achieve 75% renewables?

Not parts of countries like Canberra but whole countries who do not import electricity from terrible coal fired power stations elsewhere.
Regards PhilipA

[drivesafe]

terrible coal fired power stations
They are only terrible to you because you are pushing a failed narrative.

Coal fired power stations are many times more reliable than any of the “renewables” including hydro.

If renewable technology ever gets to a point where it is reliable, and can actually supply enough energy to remove the need for coal fire power stations, promote it then.

Right now these renewables are proving to be nothing but grossly expensive fairytales.

[JDNSW]

They are only terrible to you because you are pushing a failed narrative.

Coal fired power stations are many times more reliable than any of the “renewables” including hydro.

If renewable technology ever gets to a point where it is reliable, and can actually supply enough energy to remove the need for coal fire power stations, promote it then.

Right now these renewables are proving to be nothing but grossly expensive fairytales.

Does that include the current situation with the Callide stations? Or the WA one that has no coal because of financial mismanagement?

[drivesafe]

Does that include the current situation with the Callide stations? Or the WA one that has no coal because of financial mismanagement?
And there be the problem.

Mismanagement and neglect is causing no end of problems with some of the coal fired power stations but I don't so renewables filling the gaps.

[Vern]

Absolutely correct. Just illustrating that a blanket figure for life of panels of 25 years or "it's exactly the same with panels, degrade to 80% (from memory) at 25 years" is simply disinformation, either said carelessly or perhaps deliberately.Not disinformation John.
If a panel performs at less than 80% of its expected output after 25 years, it will be covered under warranty. That is what I said in relation to Tim's post on battery warranty.
We mostly sell Canadian Solar panels, as the price is right, performance and quality is excellent, but after 25 years, they must perform at over 84.4% or they will be covered under performance warranty.

[350RRC]

.....................

Wind. The average wind farm does not produce over 25-30% of its nameplate capacity.

.......................
Regards PhilipA

Not quite right. The capacity factor co-efficiency factor figures are not easy to come by.......... but here are some from 2018 and nearly all are over 30%.

Vic does have quality wind resources (and **** coal, haha)

Kiata was state of the art back then and achieving 47%, the newer turbines are higher.

181745

DL

[PhilipA]

I have attached an article from the dreaded WUWT regarding teh experience in negotiating a contract for wind energy in NZ.
I found it fascinating and wonder if there are Australian companies being pressured into similar arrangements.

Dissecting a Wind Project: An Introduction to Bad Economics (and political correctness) – Watts Up With That? (https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/11/14/dissecting-a-wind-project-an-introduction-to-bad-economics-and-political-correctness/)

Regards PhilipA

[p38arover]

If a panel performs at less than 80% of its expected output after 25 years, it will be covered under warranty.

It won't happen. The retailer who sold it will no longer be in business and the Chinese manufacturer won't be interested.

[PhilipA]

They are only terrible to you because you are pushing a failed narrative

Drivesafe I was joking JOKING!! Coal fired power stations will still be going decades from now. Look in NSW some CZeck investors have just bought Vales Point and Isn't there a bid from a Canadian group for AGL?
Thye obviously don't think that they are "stranded assets" . what ajoke that the NSw Government sold Vales Point for $1 million and the buyers are now selling it for $170 million.
Tim Flannery should be sued .
Regards PhilipA

[NavyDiver]

Drivesafe I was joking JOKING!! Coal fired power stations will still be going decades from now. Look in NSW some CZeck investors have just bought Vales Point and Isn't there a bid from a Canadian group for AGL?
Thye obviously don't think that they are "stranded assets" . what ajoke that the NSw Government sold Vales Point for $1 million and the buyers are now selling it for $170 million.
Tim Flannery should be sued .
Regards PhilipA


Mean while in WA[bigwhistle][bigwhistle][bigwhistle]

[NavyDiver]

This is interesting "Across the globe, governments and developers are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into large offshore wind farms like Beatrice to meet climate-change goals.





These initiatives are attractive to investors and lawmakers because they produce enormous amounts of clean energy and can be placed far enough from shore that they are largely out of sight. Britain is already generating more than 10 percent of its electricity from wind at sea, and on some gusty days, like Nov. 2 (https://twitter.com/NationalGridESO/status/1588205582309154816), wind produces more than half. "

"Beatrice has 84 arrayed over 50 square miles of blue water" LINK NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/27/business/scotland-wind-farms-offshore.html)

Out of site is not in my view perfect. Why is so much money pouring in to wind! "Beatrice also makes a load of money. In the year that ended on March 31, it recorded an operating profit of £218 million on total revenues of £393 million — or about £1 of operating profit for every £2 of revenue."

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $ yet issue is they are at best capable most of the time- the other times are needed and the diversion of funds to wind for the $$$$ means the other times are costly and more difficult than they should be. AGL Gas fired plant in South Australia might be an example?

[Homestar]

Offshore wind is coming to Vic as well - Star of the South (https://www.starofthesouth.com.au/)

[NavyDiver]

Offshore wind is coming to Vic as well - Star of the South (https://www.starofthesouth.com.au/)

We need more power - Love wind- it cannot replace or more importantly provide what will be needed. Arena on Aluminium i (https://arena.gov.au/blog/alcoa-aluminium-producer-to-trial-renewables/)s interesting to watch. They also plan to add a LOT of hydrogen to that process which IF from Pyrolysis would use a LOT of eletricity as well.

Noting spare excess to hydrogen electrolysis should be here soon as well rather than turning off wind generation as happens often at night and weekends now.

[Homestar]

Yeah, I have no issue with it - more is needed and in a hurry. They will be using 12 or 18MW turbines - they are MASSIVE! Incredible advancement in output over the last 10 years. I remember when 70 metre towers/3MW units were considered giants only a few years ago, now they are babies... [thumbsupbig]

[NavyDiver]

Yeah, I have no issue with it - more is needed and in a hurry. They will be using 12 or 18MW turbines - they are MASSIVE! Incredible advancement in output over the last 10 years. I remember when 70 metre towers/3MW units were considered giants only a few years ago, now they are babies... [thumbsupbig]

Despite the huge on and offshore wind energy added to the UK low wind has made it very very messy today! they just cancelled brown outs!
Emergency energy plan not going ahead on Tuesday - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63782026)
"National Grid had been ready to trigger the scheme following a warning that Britain's energy supplies were looking tighter than usual this week.


However, it decided that the measure was not required.


Alerts are sent out automatically when expected supplies drop below a certain level. But they do not mean that blackouts are likely, or that the situation is critical.



"
Wind variability does not make stability.


Wind growth is very welcome. With out massive storage its is still a limiting factor . When I mean massive I mean grid scale suppy for about a week. No way batteries are going to do that ever!

Batteries are needed for grid stabilization with solar and wind! At that scale it is possible happily.

[Narangga]

"Unparalleled in world:" AEMO maps route to "hours and days" of 100 pct renewables | RenewEconomy (https://reneweconomy.com.au/unparalleled-in-world-aemo-maps-route-to-hours-and-days-of-100-pct-renewables/)

[NavyDiver]

"Unparalleled in world:" AEMO maps route to "hours and days" of 100 pct renewables | RenewEconomy (https://reneweconomy.com.au/unparalleled-in-world-aemo-maps-route-to-hours-and-days-of-100-pct-renewables/)


" the case of large-scale electricity supply-demand systems in regions with high solar and/or high wind resources that could drive the transition to 100% renewable electricity either within these regions or economical transmission distance from these regions. In these regions, variable renewable energy (VRE) such as wind and/or solar provides the major proportion of annual electricity generation. These regions include, on-shore, most of Australia, south-west and central USA, north-west China, north-west South America, North Africa, and the Middle East; they also include off-shore northern Europe and north-eastern USA, which have high wind energy resources. Together these regions have the capacity to supply a large fraction of global electricity from wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) by transmission lines (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800919320543)
"

The missing bit is "EROI of renewables must be evaluated in a realistic way" Paywall sorry- EROI = Energy Output : Energy Used to Deliver that Energy

With most/some of the time Wind and Solar power, storage to cover the rest of the time has to be included in the real cost.

Flooding the market some/most of the time does not make a secure grid anywhere. The costs are very clear I think[thumbsupbig]

[NavyDiver]

I find economics far more interesting than politics

Watching power/energy supply prices is interesting.

BASF permanently moving some parts of its huge business out of the EU is possibly the first large economic impact.
Pay walled sorry
"Subscribe to read | Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/f6d2fe70-16fb-4d81-a26a-3afb93e0bf57)"

WSJ take on topic

High Energy Prices in Europe Push BASF to Cut Costs PermanentlyRising fuel costs boost fears of a deindustrialization of the continent (https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-energy-prices-in-europe-push-basf-to-cut-costs-permanently-11666790344)


It is relatively easy to see where blind biased hope meets economic realty. Hope we do not stuff it up myself does of course intersect with political of course- not meaning to be political [biggrin]

[NavyDiver]

I am off tweete This is from tweeter

"“[B]Over the last 40 hours, the UK wind power industry has swung from producing 16.4 GW to generating 0.4 GW. The drop in electricity production is equal to, give or take, switching of 14 nuclear power stations. That's the reason why UK power markets are tight today.” "

full time not just cheap and part time is essential - Last post- Excuse me reading a huge new letter which references far to much information [thumbsupbig]

My work XMAS party in a hour and a 1/2 then 40km+ bike ride to keep me away from the computer

[scarry]

On another note,coal Royalties for Qld this financial year will be around $10.7Billion.

I wonder how the budget would look without that money?

[JDNSW]

Yes - Qld and NSW state governments are squealing like stuck pigs at the prospect of losing coal royalties, even if only from a domestic price cap (the really big royalties are from the exports in both states).

[drivesafe]

On another note,coal Royalties for Qld this financial year will be around $10.7Billion.

I wonder how the budget would look without that money?
And why is the money not being used to subsidise the cost of the coal being used in QLDs power stations, to lower the electricity cost to ALL Queenslands?

[NavyDiver]

Federal and state-level governments have unanimously signed on to develop an energy "capacity mechanism", a scheme that will pay renewable energy providers to be available to increase electricity supply at a moment's notice. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-08/renewables-to-be-paid-to-ensure-power-supply/101751244?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web)
"Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the "capacity investment scheme" would "unleash" $10 billion worth of investment and 6 gigawatts of renewable dispatchable power: that is, energy that can be stored and used at-will."
The American I.R.A is used to fund a huge range of investments Many putting money in my pocket [biggrin].

The new Australian money is not yet entirely codified by law. Only coal and gas were cut out it seems.

Hydrogen made by stored via electrolysis or our Pyrolysis can be used for large scale readily dispatchable power
"The Shinincheon Bitdream Fuel Cell Power Plant, Incheon, has a total capacity of 78.96MW and will produce 700GWh of electricity annually, This is sufficient to supply power to 250,000 households in the capital area and heat an additional 44,000." link (https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/worlds-largest-hydrogen-fuel-cell-power-plant-was-built-in-korea20211027162812/)

This is just a current or 2017 tech small example It can be much bigger, faster and cheaper than lithium batteries . One big battery here is "The Victorian Big Battery is a grid-connected battery electricity storage facility adjacent to the Moorabool Terminal Station near Geelong in Victoria, Australia. The battery provides 450 MWh of storage and can discharge at 300 MW." Cost more than 160million and power cost is born by us of course.

Cost and efficiencies are changing quickly

US is in the mix with several projects including "Advanced Clean Energy Storage hub will be the world's largest renewable energy storage facility. The hub will capture excess wind and solar energy and—with the help of Dynapower's power conversion systems—convert it to green hydrogen using electrolysis and store it in underground salt caverns. The first two caverns at the hub will store up to 300-gigawatt hours of dispatchable clean energy and feed it back to the grid when it's most needed."
Dynapower to Support World's Largest Green Hydrogen Storage Project (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/12/07/2569526/0/en/Dynapower-to-Support-World-s-Largest-Green-Hydrogen-Storage-Project.html) Parent company is Sensata Tech Marked cap "USD$6.69B"

We know or many lurking billions+ in investment money in this sector looking for several LARGE scale place to park cash has and will be running rulers over the options very closely.
Every input available to create C02 free hydrogen production will be required and will not be nearly as much as needed. The world needs metal, power, fertilizers for food and heat Hydrogen is a part of all of them. What is clear is the massive land foot print of Wind and solar projects and materials needs for them limit the scale they will be able o provide. Hazer tech Pyrolysis and Nuclear heat/power to electrolysis (or heat to Pyrolysis??) are the only small foot print options.

Nuclear is not likely here until a few people get out of nappies[biggrin]

I am going to put an amazing yarn on the bad side of nuclear in what am I listening to. The history is amazing. I thought I knew lots and found I knew little as usual [thumbsupbig]

[Tombie]

I am off tweete This is from tweeter

"“[B]Over the last 40 hours, the UK wind power industry has swung from producing 16.4 GW to generating 0.4 GW. The drop in electricity production is equal to, give or take, switching of 14 nuclear power stations. That's the reason why UK power markets are tight today.” "

full time not just cheap and part time is essential - Last post- Excuse me reading a huge new letter which references far to much information [thumbsupbig]

My work XMAS party in a hour and a 1/2 then 40km+ bike ride to keep me away from the computer

Just like around here.

More fans than you can poke a stick at, first hot day - all motionless. At which point they’re actually consuming power rather than making it.

We need alternatives for these higher peaks or it’s useless.

[JDNSW]

And why is the money not being used to subsidise the cost of the coal being used in QLDs power stations, to lower the electricity cost to ALL Queenslands?

Because the state owned power stations with fixed price coal contracts, which have their power selling price set by the price the two(?) state owned stations buying coal at market price are more profitable. Win-win!

[NavyDiver]

Just like around here.

More fans than you can poke a stick at, first hot day - all motionless. At which point they’re actually consuming power rather than making it.

We need alternatives for these higher peaks or it’s useless.

Urgently here and too late for the EU unless some divine intervention occurs

"With so little wind, Germany fired up its coal plants. At times last week it was producing 40% of its electricity from them, polluting as much as coal-hooked nations like India and South Africa. If nothing broke, it was because it wasn’t particularly cold.
From now on, the dreaded scenario is what energy professionals in Germany call a Dunkelflaute — literally meaning the dark doldrums, a period with little solar and wind electricity and high demand because of low temperatures. If a Dunkelfluate episode hits Europe — and some traders and meteorologists believe there’s a high chance of one this week or next — the region will be in trouble. "

Money flows can be assured? "Thomas Schaefer, one of the most senior executives at Volkswagen AG, publicly said what many other business people and policy makers had only raised in private. “When it comes to the cost of electricity and gas, in particular, we are losing more and more ground,” he said, warning that unless prices fall quickly, investment in Europe will be “practically unviable.”"

It will take years of planning and investment to fix the ten plus years of silly dreams and inability to count and forecast for many countries.

We have a little bit of a break IF silly walks ministry is not in charge. Not saying they are or aren't. I do see some hints they may be[bigwhistle]

[Narangga]

Interesting...

Australian researchers use sodium-sulphur in new battery tech | CarExpert (https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/australian-researchers-use-sodium-sulphur-in-new-battery-tech)

[drivesafe]

It's amazing how when the science is done right, thing look a lot better than the climate change claimer make out.

Data shows there’s no climate catastrophe looming – climatologist Dr J Christy debunks the narrative - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJv1IPNZQao)

[vnx205]

He may be right, but a lot of highly qualified people think he is wrong.
Climate misinformation by source: John Christy (https://skepticalscience.com/skeptic_John_Christy.htm)

[ramblingboy42]

I hadn't really heard anyone calling out a climate change catastrophe.....but what has Australian been experiencing?

[drivesafe]

He may be right, but a lot of highly qualified people think he is wrong.
Climate misinformation by source: John Christy (https://skepticalscience.com/skeptic_John_Christy.htm)
That was a typical response to facts that don't support the climate extremists.

In the video I had a link to, the doctor explained how they arrived at their "FACTS" but in that link you put up, the just continually made statements like "many people disagree with the Doctors facts" with out putting up any evidence.

Case of talk is cheap!

One perfect example he pointed out, and something I had never considered, was that where they had been taking temperature measurements in one place for over a hundred or so years, the human activity had changed the environment at that place, thus effecting the accuracy of the temperature readings.

Again, I had never heard that before, but it would make sense and so how do they recalculate for such a charge.

[drivesafe]

I have also read elsewhere, like NASA, that the increased CO2 is helping vegetation growth. A good thing when trying to feed the woulds ever increasing population.

Another FACT the Doctor spoke about, was the increased number of hurricanes.

Here in Australia we have had way higher than "AVERAGE" rain fall, but what do they bas the AVERAGE on?

Our records only go back 250 years, and that is hardly enough time to base AVERAGES on.

For just one example, have a look at all the flood plains around the country.

Like the major coastal flood plain between the Gold Coast and the southern Brisbane area.

That had to have been formed by a number of huge flood events, yet nothing that big has occurred during white history of the area.

So much for humans effecting the whether or climate.

[vnx205]

You are right that my response (after acknowledging that he may be right) was to link to a page that was merely a summary of reasons to doubt some of Christy's claims.

However on that site skepticalscience.com there are pages that deal in detail with a great many climate myths. On those pages dealing with specific claims, there is evidence aplenty. The articles usually have three versions: Basic, Intermediate and Advanced. Obviously the Advanced version is where the most evidence is found.

I don't have the time or the enthusiasm to repeat all the evidence that casts doubt on Christy's claims. However I will respond to just one of his claims that you mention.

I am assuming that your reference to changed human activity is a version of the "urban heat island" claim. There is an article that offers evidence of why that claim is not the concern that some claim. It is found at :
John Christy, Climate Change denier, part I – Debunking Denial (https://debunkingdenial.com/john-christy-climate-change-denier-part-i/)

It is quite a lengthy article, but is says in part that:

Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project or BEST (https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/global-surface-temperatures-best-berkeley-earth-surface-temperatures), led by Berkeley Professor Richard Muller and his daughter Elizabeth Muller.
... ... ... ..

BEST improved their capability for comparing urban to rural thermometer measurements. They confirmed findings that there was no “urban heat island effect” in measuring ground temperature increases. Rural stations show the same warming trend as urban stations and poorly-sited stations measure the same results as well-sited stations.


There is also a Part II that offers evidence that casts doubt on other of Christy's claims.
John Christy Climate-Change Denier Part II – Debunking Denial (https://debunkingdenial.com/john-christy-climate-change-denier-part-ii/)

Christy does come across as "the voice of reason" and his objections are well argued but that doesn't necessarily mean he is right (although he may be). I found the evidence in the links I provided and in many other articles to be just as convincing as Christy's evidence.

Certainly his views should be part of the discussion, but I am not convinced that everything he says can be accepted without question.

My initial response didn't offer evidence, but the evidence does exist and i have offered links to sites that provide that evidence.

[NavyDiver]

I have also read elsewhere, like NASA, that the increased CO2 is helping vegetation growth. A good thing when trying to feed the woulds ever increasing population.

Another FACT the Doctor spoke about, was the increased number of hurricanes.

Here in Australia we have had way higher than "AVERAGE" rain fall, but what do they bas the AVERAGE on?

Our records only go back 250 years, and that is hardly enough time to base AVERAGES on.

For just one example, have a look at all the flood plains around the country.

Like the major coastal flood plain between the Gold Coast and the southern Brisbane area.

That had to have been formed by a number of huge flood events, yet nothing that big has occurred during white history of the area.

So much for humans effecting the whether or climate.

Weather and climate are relatives not twins [biggrin] Sea levels rises are guaranteed by the ice melt in Greenland (http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/)and almost every glazier. I love swimming, diving and fishing yet not at all sure that is good for almost any of us!

With inch by inch measurement possible now from satellites its evidence not opinions now.

Point of question is how much is natural climate change and how much is to do with the changes we know we have introduced can also be measured.

Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data | US EPA (https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data)

Cost and Benefits for high rain fall - droughts- fires are fairly clear as well. The good bit about many changes is we will make a lot of money from several of them here in Australia. [biggrin]

[PhilipA]

With inch by inch measurement possible now from satellites its evidence not opinions now.
Er no . It is well documented that sea level by satellite is very influenced by the wave height and so is an approximation.
Yet sea level measurements on known geologically stable sites show no acceleration in sea level rise.
The most well known in Australia is Fort Denison where the sea level rise has been consistent for over 100 years at AFAIR 1.8MM per year..


From detailed analysis of global tide gauge records, IPCC (2007) concluded that the rate of observed sea level rise increased from the 19th to 20th century and that the total 20th century rise was estimated to be 17 ± 5 cm. IPCC (2007) similarly concluded that global average eustatic sea level rise over the period from 1961 to 2003 is estimated at 1.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr.

This is from a very speculative research report that says that Fort Denison will be inundated a bit by 2100. I have to say that I am a bit sceptical when a study uses IPCC reports as sources seeing they have more recently scaled back their projections.

Although significant conjecture and international debate has centred on climate change and postulated impacts for over two decades, IPCC (2007) concludes “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.” Further, IPCC (2007) warns “Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas emissions were to be stabilised”.

But for now it seems pretty safe.

Fort Denison Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study October 2008 (nsw.gov.au) (https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-06/Fort%20Denison%20sea%20level%20rise%20study.pdf)

[JDNSW]

I came across an interesting bit of data from the latest isssue of the ANARE Club journal "Aurora. The volume of ice in Antarctica is now being measure continuously and with extreme accuracy as a byproduct of satellite management.

The volume of ice on the continent (including the ice shelf) affects the orbit of a large number of satellites tracked by NASA. NASA needs to measure these orbits very accurately and in real time for multiple reasons. For example, the orbit of GPS satellites needs to be known accurately for the GPS position to be accurate.

It is simple to set up automatic calculations of the changes to the ice using published orbital data.

Not the same, but multiple satellites have been regularly measuring surface temperature over the whole earth for at least the last fifty years, and calculating changes in average temperature from this is, again, quite simple. And is consistent with published weather station temperature changes.

[350RRC]

.........................

Not the same, but multiple satellites have been regularly measuring surface temperature over the whole earth for at least the last fifty years, and calculating changes in average temperature from this is, again, quite simple. And is consistent with published weather station temperature changes.

And people get obsessed with maximum temperatures that are 'no different' from their childhoods, yet the minima creep up over time.

DL

[JDNSW]

Not just the minimum, but the relative frequency of higher minimum temperature. And the same for maximums.

[NavyDiver]

With a certain B joyce hammering wind farms and apparently supporting Small Nuclear Reactors like I do the world is a funny place. The Wind thing is a HUGE and very funny title- Hope no ones offended adding here as it is a bit political I suppose

"Of ‘poo-tickets’ and power stations: Barnaby Joyce takes on big wind

"

"Winterbourne Wind project go ahead, about 55 landholders stand to earn about $30,000 per turbine hosted on their land a year. Some could have up to 10 turbines. Vesta has also entered into negotiations with some neighbours who would be in sight of the towers for further payments.Total investment in the region would be about $1 billion over the life of the project.

"

A few farmers I know would like easy 330,000 p.a. rent![bigwhistle]"NSW government’s New England Renewable Energy Zone." that means I assume NSW wants it?

Issues for some is if "income generated by new renewables is worth the impact on the landscape."

Huge land footprint of some Western Vic wind farms is clearly not everyone favorite - I do not mind it myself - I would not want them everywhere as might be needed IF they are the only option. They are not happily.

PS not investment advice. I do own shares in a NYSE listed Small Nuclear Reactor company- I might loose money[thumbsupbig]

Censor if needs please MODs AKA Legends

[scarry]

With a certain B joyce hammering wind farms and apparently supporting Small Nuclear Reactors like I do the world is a funny place. The Wind thing is a HUGE and very funny title- Hope no ones offended adding here as it is a bit political I suppose

"Of ‘poo-tickets’ and power stations: Barnaby Joyce takes on big wind

"

"Winterbourne Wind project go ahead, about 55 landholders stand to earn about $30,000 per turbine hosted on their land a year. Some could have up to 10 turbines. Vesta has also entered into negotiations with some neighbours who would be in sight of the towers for further payments.Total investment in the region would be about $1 billion over the life of the project.

"

A few farmers I know would like easy 330,000 p.a. rent![bigwhistle]"NSW government’s New England Renewable Energy Zone." that means I assume NSW wants it?

Issues for some is if "income generated by new renewables is worth the impact on the landscape."

Huge land footprint of some Western Vic wind farms is clearly not everyone favorite - I do not mind it myself - I would not want them everywhere as might be needed IF they are the only option. They are not happily.

PS not investment advice. I do own shares in a NYSE listed Small Nuclear Reactor company- I might loose money[thumbsupbig]

Censor if needs please MODs AKA Legends

Don't they make a heap of noise?

The ones i have seen do,if they all do, i wouldn't want to be anywhere near them.

[NavyDiver]

Don't they make a heap of noise?

The ones i have seen do,if they all do, i wouldn't want to be anywhere near them.

The nuclear reactors I have been near were all very quiet???

Just kidding. The noise is interesting. I hear[biggrin] lots of grumbling about it. You can get very close to the ones at Cape Bridgewater Vic and honestly the wind/ wave noise is much louder

GE suggests "The closest that a wind turbine is typically placed to a home is 300 meters or more. At that distance, a turbine will have a sound pressure level of [B]43 decibels. To put that in context, the average air conditioner can reach 50 decibels of noise, and most refrigerators run at around 40 decibels."

I'd assume you could barely hear anything at 1000m or more.

Hydro TASS have it recorded for us[biggrin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-sUDSwsE_w

This was interesting- Road seem to be the looser for those living near one[biggrin]

20db or 50% of background noise at 2000m
Ditto for 1000m (almost impossible to hear!)
just under 40db at 500m and still under background noise level (Just)
It is clearly audible at 250m Not as loud as I listen to pod casts when running[biggrin] The several I have heard at this or less a distance did not stop conversations at normal levels

Noise seems a bit of a beat up?

[scarry]

Noise seems a bit of a beat up?

Well,maybe,but noise is difficult to quantify,even in perfect recording conditions.
Also different people have a different perception of noise.

The vid was for one,just imagine 10 of them going 24/7.That is if the wind is blowing....

Anyway,it won't worry me,there are none around here.[biggrin]

[NavyDiver]

Well,maybe,but noise is difficult to quantify,even in perfect recording conditions.
Also different people have a different perception of noise.

The vid was for one,just imagine 10 of them going 24/7.That is if the wind is blowing....

Anyway,it won't worry me,there are none around here.[biggrin]

None here in the city. There was one at Denham shark bay WA when I was diving there. Honestly never noticed it despite it being very close by. I still have very good hearing for Doppler shift and entertaining quiet noises[thumbsupbig]

I wished I recorded my elderly in laws driving away before. Just as they got out of sight the NOISE of a BEAST of a car which had to be 1000m plus away was well over 60db[bigrolf]

[Homestar]

Well,maybe,but noise is difficult to quantify,even in perfect recording conditions.
Also different people have a different perception of noise.

The vid was for one,just imagine 10 of them going 24/7.That is if the wind is blowing....

Anyway,it won't worry me,there are none around here.[biggrin]

When the wind is blowing - even a light breeze, you can barely hear them when you’re right in the middle of a large group of them - noise is a beat up by the have nots on the other side of the fence to the haves - it always has been. Those who’s land is picked for wind farms and get paid rent can’t hear them but the poor guy who doesn’t get any on his land is the one that jacks up about them.

[NavyDiver]

Grids are just a part of the issue with power to users. Transmission lines/storage if you must or can and more of course.

NZ is a case study we should be learning from. Very very good C02 free power options. Now the bit above bites "New Zealanders told 'be prepared to be without power for days or weeks' as Cyclone Gabrielle takes toll"

We have all or most of us have had a storm (or several) not that long ago that knocked out power for hours days or a week or more in some places. Texas big freeze recalled (2021)?

The Turkiye earthquake and or Gas/Oil Russian war all add complexity to supplies even here! WA coal bail out in nsw after a failure to plan is another case study in what not to do or importantly - what not to allow to happen perhaps.

Aspects of our transmission grid are vulnerable to fire, high winds, Floods and other shocks. Loss or Intermittence of power costs a lot of money. Grid can be 100% C02 free inside the next ten years if done correctly.

Being held hostage to world events or poor planing is not helping us at all. [bigwhistle]

[drivesafe]

I was at wind farm at Crookwell some 20+ years ago and I even took some video of the place.

We were pretty close to the turbines and you could not hear them.

But, IMO they are still an eye-saw!

[Hoges]

I was reading a post elsewhere of a chap recently travelling through Scotland.... in one area there are 1,500 turbines, some of which are close to 200+ m tall. The UK government pays the operators in lieu to shut them down when there is oversupply of power and they're not needed. Over the past several years, some GBP2+ billion has been paid out for "non production"... I envisage a time that as these turbines reach their use-by date, the smart money will have bundled them into an "asset trust" (like the bundling and sale of dud mortgages in the USA which kicked off the GFC) and sold them off to some sucker who is then left to "recycle the un-recyclable"... but what would I know?[bighmmm]:soapbox:

[NavyDiver]

On a very long enjoyable country Drive I listen to a man who was selling at a very large scale Solar Panels- He is not any more for a few interesting reasons DOOMBERG [bigwhistle] Canadian I think.

His discussion on Solar were interesting. His comments about wind are a bit HOT? High Blade faliure rates and errosion of base on off shore wind and a lot more.

He is physics based on EROI and energy Density so thinks Nuclear is the only option and used several examples of trillions spend on dreams that are increasing costs and decreasing reliability.


This interview discussed him at about Minute 20. All the nice enthusiastic people I know who love wind Solar and Hydro are fine. The question none can answer is 100% uptime and the significant increase in power required well over the current supply used or the 80% of the world who currently have almost no reliable power supply.

Noted Mr Doomberg did not like hydrogen power via fuel cells[bigwhistle] that might be my pipe dream?? He thought hydrogen combustion was better! Sorry to say his complete interview is subscription only via substack I think. I saw him on a subscription service from the gent in the video.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O784GGu8fPU&amp;t=277s