Thread: Ineos Grenadier, do you reckon it'll take off?

Defender sales peaked at 39k in 1997 which was an exceptional year. They averaged closer to 20k per annum over the life of the Defender production run. Last 10 years only reached 20k once. With a low of 12k in 2008 and a peak of 21k in 2015. So with a factory set up to do 25k per year are looking for an increase in sales not just replacing. Low volume seems baked into the business plan which may be to their advantage

For comparison Toyota do about 400k per annum for Landcruiser and Lexus versions although they do not breakout the 70 series sales volumes from this total. Toyota has said that Australia takes over 20% of the production for 70 series. So we can guesstimate total 70 series production based on the 10k sold in Australia as 50k per annum. So the 25k production for the Grenadier is a good start

Toyota have in the past made comment that 70 series sales had been steadily falling for 20 years. This making investment in a replacement difficult to justify. If the Grenadier takes too many sales from the Toyota might result in its demise

They are of course not competing with the full 70 series model range as of yet making a comparison of respective market share even more difficult. Grenadier do not yet have the ‘commercial’ ute models in their range

Will be interesting to see how this plays out

Interesting indeed. Comparisons of sales projections of a fledgling car startup with those of an established player aren't worth much. Ineos would look pretty silly making 100,000 of the things without testing the market first.

Compare them to another "recent" startup; Tesla. Now, I know they stand at polar opposites of the market, but it was a big risk, building a car with very little expertise. Building a modern car from scratch is no easy thing. Tesla had a few early stabs at it, with the Roadster etc. So, there was awareness, but the Model S was projected to sell 40.000 units in the first year, a target it didn't meet.

Ineos is in both a better and worse position than Tesla was. Tesla was creating a new market, really. Bloody hard. Many have tried. However, the timing was superb, and Tesla was the lucky recipient of large subsidies, for reasons I can't go into here. Ineos won't get any subsidies, and in fact will face increasing opposition from various bureaucracies. OTOH, it has a very convenient hole to plug in the market.

Personally, I think Ineos has judged its entry numbers perfectly. Time will tell. But, they have certainly created a buzz.

Originally Posted by 3toes

Toyota have in the past made comment that 70 series sales had been steadily falling for 20 years. This making investment in a replacement difficult to justify. If the Grenadier takes too many sales from the Toyota might result in its demise

They are of course not competing with the full 70 series model range as of yet making a comparison of respective market share even more difficult. Grenadier do not yet have the ‘commercial’ ute models in their range

Grenadier won't even make a dent in 70 series sales.
Africa is a good example,they still buy the 70 with the well documented, ultra reliable, 6 cylinder diesel,as do many other countries.Ours have been the V8 for the last 15 or so years due to emission regs.
Toyota have the advantage of being able to taylor vehicles to suit different markets,something a small player would find difficult,probably impossible.
Anything full of electronics such as Puma Defender,or Grenadier won't be considered.
Sure things may change with new emissions rules,etc,but that is not going to happen in the near future.
The 70 also has the reputation, that Grenadier will take decades to gain,if they ever do.
Service agents are another issue,in Australia,as an example,Tojo have almost 300.

Anyway,good luck to them,but they certainly have some challenges ahead.
And to challenge something like the 70,they need utes on the market ASAP,as they are the biggest sellers in the 70 range by a country mile.

I just got home after a 14,000km East-West trip in my Perentie. Some interesting things that I witnessed along the way…

* Toyota 70 series absolutely everywhere in the Outback.
* 70 series blew a diff on the Strezleki Track. The track was very wet and muddy at the time. I needed 3 attempts in my FFR on AT tyres.
* Speaking to LC200 owner near the Surveyor’s General corner.. 30,000km on the clock. Transfer case gone. Cruise control stopped working. Wipers sometimes work, sometimes don’t.. “It’s been at the dealer for a month now, waiting on parts”
* Speaking to a 79 owner (same town) - my 79 has been off the road for 6 weeks now, at the dealer, waiting for parts.
* Both guys said “the roads are pretty rough out here”
* A friend travelling with me (Ranger) had an ECU warning light… We took the car to 2 dealers and rang 2 more.. All said the same thing “sorry workshop is busy - can’t look at it for 4 weeks. Come back later.”
* The Ranger only had 10,000km on it - still under warranty.
* Spoke to a station hand at the Carnegie station. They have 79’s and Jeeps. He said “the jeeps are absolutely crap and the Toyota’s aren’t much better - but at least we can get parts for the Toyota, eventually”

My point is - the dealer network (Toyota and Ford) isn’t what it used to be..

Toyota are BRILLIANT at their brand marketing.

The FFR did the trip without issue.. And used less fuel than the diesel Ranger…

Originally Posted by grey_ghost

I just got home after a 14,000km East-West trip in my Perentie. Some interesting things that I witnessed along the way…

* Toyota 70 series absolutely everywhere in the Outback.
* 70 series blew a diff on the Strezleki Track. The track was very wet and muddy at the time. I needed 3 attempts in my FFR on AT tyres.
* Speaking to LC200 owner near the Surveyor’s General corner.. 30,000km on the clock. Transfer case gone. Cruise control stopped working. Wipers sometimes work, sometimes don’t.. “It’s been at the dealer for a month now, waiting on parts”
* Speaking to a 79 owner (same town) - my 79 has been off the road for 6 weeks now, at the dealer, waiting for parts.
* Both guys said “the roads are pretty rough out here”
* A friend travelling with me (Ranger) had an ECU warning light… We took the car to 2 dealers and rang 2 more.. All said the same thing “sorry workshop is busy - can’t look at it for 4 weeks. Come back later.”
* The Ranger only had 10,000km on it - still under warranty.
* Spoke to a station hand at the Carnegie station. They have 79’s and Jeeps. He said “the jeeps are absolutely crap and the Toyota’s aren’t much better - but at least we can get parts for the Toyota, eventually”

My point is - the dealer network (Toyota and Ford) isn’t what it used to be..

Toyota are BRILLIANT at their brand marketing.

The FFR did the trip without issue.. And used less fuel than the diesel Ranger…

Good trip by the sounds of it. However it doesn't surprise me that a Petente would have less issues than a lot or modern cars packed full of electronics. Not comparing apples with apples though. Cheers

I was just trying to say - people swear by Toyota, but from what I witnessed - they aren’t un breakable, and parts aren’t that easy to get.

But people still buy them because they fall for the Toyota advertising…

How Ineos will beat that mindset, I am not sure.

Originally Posted by grey_ghost

Toyota are BRILLIANT at their brand marketing.

So are MacDonalds.

Originally Posted by grey_ghost

I was just trying to say - people swear by Toyota, but from what I witnessed - they aren’t un breakable, and parts aren’t that easy to get.

But people still buy them because they fall for the Toyota advertising…

How Ineos will beat that mindset, I am not sure.

Our last big trip, 3 months towing the van, went with friends, exactly same van, our 2013 D4, their 2013 200, we did all the off road and 4wding adventures, thats not their thing so not much 4wding.
One beach run and a little sandy track driving the 200 had a traction control fault, all electronics gone but no limp mode and car still driveable, Toyota dealer had it for 2 days and gave it back, sorry cant fix it, wiring fault we don't have time. 3 days later broken wire fixxed by auto elec
Remembering exactly same van, they averaged 18l/100 we averaged 14l/100 over the whole 16,000km
They spent 1 week with a faulty car, we had zero faults yet I did all the hardcore 4wding I could find, they did none
I just don't buy into the whole Toyota crap, the only advantage is all the dealer availability and willingness of mechanics to work on them whille they refuse to look at a LR which admittedly is a huge advantage when your luck runs out