Thread: Another Malaysian plane down ...

Originally Posted by 85 county

Though personally i believe that it is beyond reasonable doubt that Russia is supporting the Russians in the Ukraine and that some of these Russians shot down the Malay plane. i also would like to believe that this was not intentional.

In regards to access the crash site. My understanding based on the news and Russian news that there was an agreement that access could take place. and that this has not happened because the Ukraine’s have started an offensive close by and thus the Russians have blocked access.

While I agree with you that Russia is most likely supporting the separatists with intelligence, equipment, and possibly even bodies on the ground, so to speak, I highly doubt that they had anything to do with the shooting (and this is only my opinion) for several reasons.

The first, and perhaps the most convincing, is the lack of hard evidence being released by the US. Russia in their press conference laid out the facts as they understand them. Their version of the facts has been open to scrutiny for well over a week, and as far as I'm aware, it has not been refuted by the US in that time. What's more, they have acknowledged their awareness of a US spy satellite above Ukraine at the time of the accident. This in itself is not surprising, as the US almost certainly has a geostationary satellite above Ukraine, and would have the documentary evidence on hand. Russia has publicly pleaded with the US to release the satellite data. This would suggest that they are certain they were not responsible for the incident (otherwise why ask). Russia also allege that MH17 deviated approximately 14 kms from its flight path and dropped 2000 feet prior to being shot down (based on the radar data). The plane was under Ukrainian air traffic control at the time, and they have asked for transcripts between the air control tower and the MH17 to be made public (or at least made available to the investigators). This was all during the press conference. Looking at what the US and Ukraine have done since is suggestive (doesn't prove anything, but is suggestive of guilt by omission). The US has ramped up the public relations (aka propaganda) offensive against Russia. Accusations of START II Treaty violation 6 years after the fact. Yukos oil ruling against Russia (the timing of the verdict in a 10 year old case). Essentially piling up as much crap on Russia hoping that most or at least some of it will stick. If you're in the drivers seat in the US, why not just produce the evidence that separatists launched the attack? It's not like you're giving up a highly valuable source. You have a satellite up there. The Ruskies know you have a satellite up there. You want the world to know Ruskies did it. So why not provide the photographs? Where's the harm? Unless they showed something you didn't like.

Ukraine has stepped up the offensive against the rebels in the area where MH17 came down, preventing the investigators from accessing the crash site. Now, I know it may be reported as "Russian separatists blocking or not allowing inspectors access to the site, but if we think about it for just one second, it is blatantly obvious that the Ukranian offensive on separatist areas surrounding the site is the driver behind the lack of access. Ask yourself, why would you do that if you were Ukraine and were innocent? If on the other hand you had something to hide... Well, then the actions make sense. It would also make sense why you wouldn't want to release the air control tower tapes prior to the incident.

Secondly, while the media has spent over a week making a case that it was plausible for rebels to be in possession of a Buk launcher (not even the entire three vehicle system mind you, just the launcher), it has completely ignored the fact that Ukraine has perhaps hundreds of these complete systems, ready to go. To the point where some AULRO members, who got their information from presumably Australian media outlets, got the impression that Ukraine didn't posses the capability to shoot down a plane that high, and came to the conclusion it must have been the Russians. Talk about one sided reporting. According to the Russian press conference a number of these (Ukrainian) systems were active in the area at the time of the incident. It's just an allegation at this stage (supported by aerial imagery from supposedly the Russian defense department), but to the best of my knowledge, this has not been publicly refuted by the US. And the media have just ignored it and instead keep pushing the social media proof narrative that Russia is guilty.

Originally Posted by olbod

Way past time putin was put out of the way permanently, one way or the other.

Evidentially, some of our own members are ready to form a lynching party. On the basis of what? They're Russians and therefore they're bad? The news told us they're guilty, therefore they must be?

The biggest problem I have with accepting the official version of events is that it's questionable if the separatists even have the means of shooting the plane down in the first place. Even if they did, they certainly have no motive (nothing to gain and everything to lose). The Ruskies may have even assisted in bringing down high altitude Ukrainian planes (and just to be clear, I've not heard or seen evidence to suggest it, but I wouldn't exclude it from the realm of possibility). If they have, it would most certainly have been done by Russian armed forces operating within Eastern Ukraine (rather than handing the equipment over to the separatists)... and there is no way trained military personnel would mistake a Boeing 777 flying at commercial altitude and in the vicinity of commercial routes for a military plane and shoot it down. They also had no motive for such an attack to believe it was done on purpose.

Ukraine on the other hand had both the means and the motive (to frame the separatists).

So I believe more and more not only that it was done by Ukraine, but that it was done with prior knowledge of, (if not outright instruction from) their US advisors, based on who had most to gain from this tragedy.

But it's way too early to tell. It could have been, as you say an accidental shooting down by Russian backed separatists. To quote a friend of mine "that's what happens when you leave highly capable weapon systems in the hands of trained monkeys". And I acknowledge that is a real possibility, and that's why I am of the strong opinion it needs to be investigated thoroughly before any far reaching conclusions are made generally, and public accusations made in particular. (Yes Prime Minister, I'm referring to you).

Originally Posted by Pickles2

This is an awful situation, particularly for those people, whose relatives' bodies have not yet been recovered.
I have NO knowledge of what is going on there.
However, I DO believe that Russia is funding the separatists, & so I with my simplistic way of looking at things, believe that Putin, with his massive influence, could do more to organize a safe site, than what He is.
Pickles,

Pickles, as far as I understand, Ukrainian forces are attacking separatist held areas around the site, which is making access unsafe. In order for Putin to use his massive influence, he has 2 options.

1.) To persuade separatists to lay down their weapons and to allow Ukraine to take complete control of the area.
2.) To invade Eastern Ukraine with Russian military and push the Ukrainian forces back far enough to establish a safe perimeter around the crash site.

Obama on the other hand could use his influence over Ukraine to get Ukrainian soldiers to pause the offensive around the crash site (not everywhere in Eastern Ukraine, just around the crash site). Which do you think is easier to achieve - To get one side to give up the territory they're holding, or to get the other side to stop attacking one particular area for a few days or weeks?

With that in mind, if Obama & the US really wanted the investigation to go ahead, why do you think they aren't using their influence in Ukraine, but are instead waging a propaganda war against Russia?

Crikey - every post in this thread is like War and Peace - can we start putting in executive summaries at the start.

Garry

Spoken by those on the other side.

[ame]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0nuUNQWq-Y[/ame]
.

While I agree with you that Russia is most likely supporting the separatists with intelligence, equipment, and possibly even bodies on the ground, so to speak, I highly doubt that they had anything to do with the shooting (and this is only my opinion) for several reasons.

The first, and perhaps the most convincing, is the lack of hard evidence being released by the US. Russia in their press conference laid out the facts as they understand them. Their version of the facts has been open to scrutiny for well over a week, and as far as I'm aware, it has not been refuted by the US in that time. What's more, they have acknowledged their awareness of a US spy satellite above Ukraine at the time of the accident. This in itself is not surprising, as the US almost certainly has a geostationary satellite above Ukraine, and would have the documentary evidence on hand. Russia has publicly pleaded with the US to release the satellite data. This would suggest that they are certain they were not responsible for the incident (otherwise why ask).

Firstly Russia has released no evidence only statements, this amounts to nothing.

There are satellite pictures from a civil satellite, that’s enough.
I can well imagine any pictures from a US military satellite would be claimed as Tainted or photoshoped by the US so the exercise is pointless.




Russia also allege that MH17 deviated approximately 14 kms from its flight path and dropped 2000 feet prior to being shot down (based on the radar data).

14 Klm at 30 000 ft and 550 Knts ground speed is what?? 2% so means nothing

Example, aircraft fly on altimeters, which messer air pressure, as we should all know air pressure is not constant with height from the ground. If it was we would have no weather. NB although radar altimeters are available they are not used in the cruse. So all air craft in the vicinity air flying to the same scale and thus separation is maintained.



The plane was under Ukrainian air traffic control at the time, and they have asked for transcripts between the air control tower and the MH17 to be made public (or at least made available to the investigators).


There may not be any transcripts. The air craft was passing though on a normal flight path and to a flight plan. The only reason for coms would be from the Ukraine for separation or from the aircraft for problems.


This was all during the press conference. Looking at what the US and Ukraine have done since is suggestive (doesn't prove anything, but is suggestive of guilt by omission).

Lack of evidence may just mean there is no evidence, it only means any thing if you wish it to mean something

The US has ramped up the public relations (aka propaganda) offensive against Russia. Accusations of START II Treaty violation 6 years after the fact. Yukos oil ruling against Russia (the timing of the verdict in a 10 year old case). Essentially piling up as much crap on Russia hoping that most or at least some of it will stick.

Agree


If you're in the drivers seat in the US, why not just produce the evidence that separatists launched the attack? It's not like you're giving up a highly valuable source. You have a satellite up there. The Ruskies know you have a satellite up there. You want the world to know Ruskies did it. So why not provide the photographs? Where's the harm? Unless they showed something you didn't like.

But there are photographs. And there is physics. End argument

Ukraine has stepped up the offensive against the rebels in the area where MH17 came down, preventing the investigators from accessing the crash site. Now, I know it may be reported as "Russian separatists blocking or not allowing inspectors access to the site, but if we think about it for just one second, it is blatantly obvious that the Ukranian offensive on separatist areas surrounding the site is the driver behind the lack of access. Ask yourself, why would you do that if you were Ukraine and were innocent? If on the other hand you had something to hide... Well, then the actions make sense. It would also make sense why you wouldn't want to release the air control tower tapes prior to the incident.

You are mixing argument and losing you logic a bit.

The offensive is about 60 klms from the crash site. NB for aussies its hard to explain how small the Ukraine is.
As I have already posted I assume the Russians have blocked access in responce to the offensive. A tit for tat thing. Besides we have aussies on the ground who say it’s the Russians. End of argument

Secondly, while the media has spent over a week making a case that it was plausible for rebels to be in possession of a Buk launcher (not even the entire three vehicle system mind you, just the launcher), it has completely ignored the fact that Ukraine has perhaps hundreds of these complete systems, ready to go. To the point where some AULRO members, who got their information from presumably Australian media outlets, got the impression that Ukraine didn't posses the capability to shoot down a plane that high, and came to the conclusion it must have been the Russians. Talk about one sided reporting. According to the Russian press conference a number of these (Ukrainian) systems were active in the area at the time of the incident. It's just an allegation at this stage (supported by aerial imagery from supposedly the Russian defense department), but to the best of my knowledge, this has not been publicly refuted by the US. And the media have just ignored it and instead keep pushing the social media proof narrative that Russia is guilty.



Russia has already stated that the Ukraine has 27 systems. They should know they made the bloody things.

Now for a bit of logic. Height and range. Since it is known where the aircraft was when it was hit its easy to work out the area it must have been fired from. Rather simple. A2+b2=c2. since the majority of this area was under Russian control.

Second since the Russians have no air assets the Ukrainians had not deployed there air defense systems. But the Ukrainians do have air assets and thus the Russians needed and have used there systems in response.

Sort of ends the argument really


Quote:
Originally Posted by olbod
Way past time putin was put out of the way permanently, one way or the other.

Evidentially, some of our own members are ready to form a lynching party. On the basis of what? They're Russians and therefore they're bad? The news told us they're guilty, therefore they must be?

I am of the opinion, Rather the devil we know sort of thing. We need neither a war with Russia or a Russian civil war. Putin is no angel but he is the best man for the job ATM


The biggest problem I have with accepting the official version of events is that it's questionable if the separatists even have the means of shooting the plane down in the first place. Even if they did, they certainly have no motive (nothing to gain and everything to lose). The Ruskies may have even assisted in bringing down high altitude Ukrainian planes (and just to be clear, I've not heard or seen evidence to suggest it, but I wouldn't exclude it from the realm of possibility). If they have, it would most certainly have been done by Russian armed forces operating within Eastern Ukraine (rather than handing the equipment over to the separatists)... and there is no way trained military personnel would mistake a Boeing 777 flying at commercial altitude and in the vicinity of commercial routes for a military plane and shoot it down. They also had no motive for such an attack to believe it was done on purpose.

As it has been suggested, and as it is generally viewed in Russia, is that the Russians ½ trained in the Ukraine that shoot it down, the original audio tapes have not been counter claimed by the Russians etc. I would say mainland Russian solders would not have mad the same mistake

Ukraine on the other hand had both the means and the motive (to frame the separatists).

Stretching things a bit. Every thing to lose if they got caught. And very little to gain if they didn’t. with or with out air Malays involment this was always going to be a big topic, CCCP vers USA

So I believe more and more not only that it was done by Ukraine, but that it was done with prior knowledge of, (if not outright instruction from) their US advisors, based on who had most to gain from this tragedy.

You assume it was a deliberate action. That puts you in the minority with both sides of the fence.
As I have said it is generally accepted in Russia that the Russians in the Ukraine shot it down. So there automatic response is to blame someone else. Oh but it was 14 klms of it path. OH but it dropped 200 ft before it got shot down. OH but whey was it flying over a war zone. NB prior to this Russia was claiming it was no war zone. Etc etc typical Russian whataboutisum reporting

But it's way too early to tell. It could have been, as you say an accidental shooting down by Russian backed separatists. To quote a friend of mine "that's what happens when you leave highly capable weapon systems in the hands of trained monkeys". And I acknowledge that is a real possibility, and that's why I am of the strong opinion it needs to be investigated thoroughly before any far reaching conclusions are made generally, and public accusations made in particular. (Yes Prime Minister, I'm referring to you).

Agree with the monkeys, agree with the investigation, agree with the prime minister comment.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Pickles2
This is an awful situation, particularly for those people, whose relatives' bodies have not yet been recovered.
I have NO knowledge of what is going on there.
However, I DO believe that Russia is funding the separatists, & so I with my simplistic way of looking at things, believe that Putin, with his massive influence, could do more to organize a safe site, than what He is.
Pickles,

Pickles, as far as I understand, Ukrainian forces are attacking separatist held areas around the site, which is making access unsafe. In order for Putin to use his massive influence, he has 2 options.

Wrong 60 klms from the site

1.) To persuade separatists to lay down their weapons and to allow Ukraine to take complete control of the area.
2.) To invade Eastern Ukraine with Russian military and push the Ukrainian forces back far enough to establish a safe perimeter around the crash site.

AGREE

Obama on the other hand could use his influence over Ukraine to get Ukrainian soldiers to pause the offensive around the crash site (not everywhere in Eastern Ukraine, just around the crash site). Which do you think is easier to achieve - To get one side to give up the territory they're holding, or to get the other side to stop attacking one particular area for a few days or weeks?

AGREE

With that in mind, if Obama & the US really wanted the investigation to go ahead, why do you think they aren't using their influence in Ukraine, but are instead waging a propaganda war against Russia?

The same could be said for Putin. If he really wanted the investigation to go ahead.

Regarding the air traffic control line as 85 county says nothing to be seen there.
Here is article ( in Russian but use google Translate
to get a very rough idea) and uses data including from the Russian ministry of defence which shoes flight paths and air traffic control maps and how there were lots of flights that day doing normal stuff.

Хочу странного - MH 17

The rebels controlled access to the crash site when it happened and did not allow access to it, logic would say that if the Ukrainians did it the rebels would be bending over backwards to get independent investigators in to prove and there fore the Kiev government would have lost so much sympathy and support.
At least one rebel group leader has admitted they had the missile system
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/id...40723?irpc=932
The interview was in Russian as well but the link stopped working.....
We will never get a full air crash investigation now for the families.



Found this on the internet
Peace Plan??

Germany and Russia have been working on a secret plan to broker a peaceful solution to end international tensions over the Ukraine.

The Independent can reveal that the peace plan, being worked on by both Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin, hinges on two main ambitions: stabilising the borders of Ukraine and providing the financially troubled country with a strong economic boost, particularly a new energy agreement ensuring security of gas supplies.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...s-9638764.html

Offender.
Like I've said, I don't know much about what's going on.
Yes, I do believe Putin could do more.
HOWEVER, and I don't know what communication there has been between Obama & Putin,...but if Putin were to agree to "pressure" the separatists to a ceasefire, or that the crash site be "made safe" until the investigation is complete, I would pretty much guarantee that Obama would play his part in influencing Ukraine.
SO, couldn't these guys have a conversation with each other, arranging to pressure both sides to make the area safe.
Obama has clearly stated that the site should be "safe" & accessable,...I've not heard the same from Putin.
Pickles.

My dislike of Putin has nothing to do with the current situation over the crash site or the whole situation in the Ukraine.
As far as that goes, I have no idea or theory about what happened.

Putin was a minor official in the KGB I believe, now he is probably worth millions or more. Good Presidential wages.
He supposedly hates the west, well so do a lot of others.
But I dont think he ever or ever will get over the breakup of the Soviet Union
and would strive to maintain as much influence over his neighbours as can be gained.
Mainly tho I think he has shown that Putin comes first in any plan or negotiation and he is striving to find a way to extend his term at the top.
I bet he has a picture of Stalin somewhere on a wall in his house.
I dont think Russia needs this kind of person pulling their string and he is a festering thorn in the worlds side.
Like the glorious leader in that other shambles.
But with the self proclaimed world policeman buggering everything up to keep itself only safe I dont see it getting better.

Poor old Luis, what a wonderful world.

Originally Posted by olbod

My dislike of Putin has nothing to do with the current situation over the crash site or the whole situation in the Ukraine.
As far as that goes, I have no idea or theory about what happened.

Putin was a minor official in the KGB I believe, now he is probably worth millions or more. Good Presidential wages.
He supposedly hates the west, well so do a lot of others.
But I dont think he ever or ever will get over the breakup of the Soviet Union
and would strive to maintain as much influence over his neighbours as can be gained.
Mainly tho I think he has shown that Putin comes first in any plan or negotiation and he is striving to find a way to extend his term at the top.
I bet he has a picture of Stalin somewhere on a wall in his house.
I dont think Russia needs this kind of person pulling their string and he is a festering thorn in the worlds side.
Like the glorious leader in that other shambles.
But with the self proclaimed world policeman buggering everything up to keep itself only safe I dont see it getting better.

Poor old Luis, what a wonderful world.

very close to the bone there.

Putins salary officially is 70 000 USD a year i believe

but Putin has power. no one else has ( in russia) that leaves a vacuum when or if he goes, and god knows what we would get next. maybe even a Russian civil war again