Thread: 737 MAX

Originally Posted by johntins

Ya think? Airbus’ backlog of aircraft remaining to be delivered as of 29 February stood at 7,670. This total was comprised of 6,209 A320 Family aircraft and 547 A220s, as well as 328 A330s, 577 A350 XWBs and nine A380s. (https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/orders-deliveries.html)
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How many of the customers who ordered these are still going to be in business in a year's time? And how many of the survivors are going to be in a position to take delivery, given the number of near new airliners that will be on the market at firesale prices by the receivers?

The airline business worldwide is going to be a pale shadow of what it was a month ago after the pandemic is over. A large proportion of the potential tourist traffic will have a lot less money for discretional spending, and businesses will have found that a lot of business travel is not really necessary. And oil is going to be a lot cheaper for a while, reducing the incentive for increased fuel efficiency. Possibly a long time, depends on how deep the recession is.

On the bright side, should help slow climate change.

Originally Posted by JDNSW

How many of the customers who ordered these are still going to be in business in a year's time? And how many of the survivors are going to be in a position to take delivery, given the number of near new airliners that will be on the market at firesale prices by the receivers?

The airline business worldwide is going to be a pale shadow of what it was a month ago after the pandemic is over. A large proportion of the potential tourist traffic will have a lot less money for discretional spending, and businesses will have found that a lot of business travel is not really necessary. And oil is going to be a lot cheaper for a while, reducing the incentive for increased fuel efficiency. Possibly a long time, depends on how deep the recession is.

On the bright side, should help slow climate change.

You are as likely to be correct as me, but I hope not.

I'm trying to remain positive, and i can because I firmly believe that

a; this pandemic will be over by July/August, and therefore

b;, the major economies will be back in full swing not long after.

Steps taken by the US will keep THEM going, and we would be wise to keep close trade ties with them. England will benefit also by their slightly wobbly independence from the EU, with freedom to take their own measures ( Not sure what Boris has been doing as my focus has been on the US/Sino stuff).

Sure, a recession is probably inevitable, but we've had those before. Folk who live normal lives, not dominated by the Dow etc. will get through. Fringe businesses will likely fail, but they were likely to anyway. That of course includes airlines. But when PanAm, TWA, and even our own Ansett collapsed, others rose to take up the slack.

Most of the airlines who may fail due to all of this won't have new fleets. They will either be using older aircraft or they will be leasing from the big boys. So it's hard to see where the "fire sale" aircraft will come from. The big players will simply lease their aircraft to new players, and the older ones will be scrapped. Business as usual.

Lean times ahead? Possibly, maybe probably. As I have said before, the world will change, for a time. The US, in particular, will likely become stronger as they pull lots of things they let go back home. The insanely wealthy "Big Tech" mobs may take a hit, but they can afford it and ultimately who cares if Apple or Google lose 20%? Not me. (Biggest concern I have is US debt, and I don't know why because I don't understand my own debt, so how can I grasp a national debt like theirs?)

I entered this discussion with you not to win, John, but because I enjoy it. I've learnt from you. I hope you've learnt from me. Like I said, I hope my stance is the correct one, but I am no longer so foolish to cling to it if events prove me wrong.

I still believe Boeing will survive though, and go some way to paying the Fed back. Their very existence goes a long way to doing just that. Just for now though, I'd prefer to fly Airbus... Bigger picture vs self interest.

However, I'll fly on what lines up at the gate. The damn things ALL crash. Air France 447 was an Airbus A330. 'Sully' tells us that was the fault of the control design of Airbus, and if the plane had been a Boeing it could not have happened. ( I would say there was a training issue. Sound familiar? It should. The whole MCAS thing is a result of trying to cut down of training costs,which would have been the result if the 737 Max was regarded as a different type.) {I am NOT comparing the Airbus cockpit differences with Boeing's massive miss-step here, but things do go wrong}



I'm not saying which approach is the correct one, Boeing and Airbus supply ALL the large airliners in the western world. I AM saying that Air France 447 was a major disaster, and the world was smack bang in the middle of the so called GFC. Airbus survived, and so did we. This is different, but not by much, in the scheme of things.