Threads that go off topic - here and other forums.

[cuppabillytea]

Luckily we have the same chance each time we fill up. I say luckily because the same applies every time we walk out the door, hop in the car, Hop on a bike, an aeroplane, a boat, etc etc etc. If it didn't our numbers would all be up pretty soon.

[incisor]

McDonald's prank sign removed from the Simpson Desert by South Australian Government - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

[Lotz-A-Landies]

McDonald's prank sign removed from the Simpson Desert by South Australian Government - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Bugger now I'll have to make my own McMuffin

[DiscoMick]

So I'm in Canberra with 89 year 7 students and 10 staff. What are the statistical odds of us losing a kid somewhere?

Sent from my GT-P5210 using AULRO mobile app

[Lotz-A-Landies]

You forgot the law of big numbers.
The first time, it is a 1 in 100 chance. Because your number didn't come up, the next time it is a 1 in 200 chance because you've doubled your sample set. The next it is a 1 in 300. The more times you fill, the rarer the event becomes.

Hmmm, I don't see it that way (but I'm not saying you're wrong...). If that were the case then wouldn't every number between 1 and 100 become rarer than the last time - apart from the number that comes up? You have to get one number between 0 and 99 come up every fill, so I don't see the odds of each fill changing, but the chance of a specific number I haven't had before coming up increases....

Like if you flip a coin, if you want heads and a tail comes up, that doesn't mean a tail will be less likely the next toss, just the opposite.

I could see your calculation working if I thought I should get 00 in consecutive fills.

.... Told you it baked my noodle...

Off to google some probability calculations...

Someone needs to do probability 101 again.

Every toss of the coin has exactly the same probability 1/2, although in a run of tosses you may move one way or the other but the more tosses the more likely you are to have 50% heads and 50% tails.

With the fuel pump you have 1/100 chance of it stopping on a dollar for every dollar you fill, if you purchase ~$20 you have ~20/2000 chance of it stopping on a dollar value (or 1/100) the next time you fill you have exactly the same probability. The probability doesn't change because each event is discrete.

[V8Ian]

I found it


You can pick it up from me on the weekend.

Cool, are you venturing north?

[V8Ian]

So I'm in Canberra with 89 year 7 students and 10 staff. What are the statistical odds of us losing a kid somewhere?

Sent from my GT-P5210 using AULRO mobile app

Depends how much effort you put into it.

[debruiser]

I found it


You can pick it up from me on the weekend.

That's not it... that one has 2 heads on it

[Mick_Marsh]

Cool, are you venturing north?

Apparently I am.
It will cost you 5c in cartage though.

[Mick_Marsh]

I didn't know 5c was worth so much.
Rare 1972 Australian 5C Five Cent Coin PCGS Graded PR69DCAM Proof State | eBay