Thread: Power loss forecast for Victorian Summer Peak periods

I see AEMO says Victoria is more likely than SA to have blackouts, since Hazelwood closed, while SA is installing more generation and batteries.

Originally Posted by DiscoMick

I see AEMO says Victoria is more likely than SA to have blackouts, since Hazelwood closed, while SA is installing more generation and batteries.

You could indeed be correct mate, and you probably are, but I hope not.
There's a very good article in the Melbourne Herald Sun today covering the situation.
And of course it's all over the net that S.A. have the dearest electricity in the world owing to an ever increasing reliance on wind generation, which has also proven to be unreliable when it is required most. Severe & more numerous Power Outages have occurred for all to see.
Like I said, I do not care how I get my power, I just want it. And I will not accept the closure of coal fired plants unless there is a seamless and equally reliable replacement power source, which condition has definitely not been guaranteed with the closure of Hazlewood,...whose continued operation was not helped one little bit by a 300% increase in certain "royalties".
In fact, I would even support a partial "restoration" of Hazlewood, which previously generated 25% of Victoria's power (and replaced by what?), to ensure that Victoria does not have the same issues as S.A.
This is not a "Political" statement, but a solution mentioned in the Sun today, that we should maybe have to turn off our A.C. & Heaters etc in periods of peak (when we most need it!) usage is clearly ridiculous, but maybe a frenzied, too late, reaction, of what is to come.
Pickles.

Originally Posted by lyonsy

Why should governments replace power stations that they dont own anymore. And why should private industry build something when their is no planing laid out for the future.
..........................

To answer the first question, they shouldn't, necessarily. But what they should do is heed, and be aware of, the warnings of future closure and ensure plans are in place to secure future stable electrical supply. Hazelwood should have closed years ago, but I expect is was government subsidy that allowed them to continue to run until it was no longer viable. This moment being when the maintenance subsidy dried up.
All state governments primary job is to ensure sufficient critical infrastructure is in place to enable the ongoing improvement in the lives of its citizens, whether that be education, health, transport, power, water etc. They don't have to own any of it.

As for the second question; private industry don't have to build anything. Their first responsibility is to their shareholders. Governments though, have ways and means to encourage industry to do things. Mainly by changing laws or handing out subsidies. Something they are very good at, but not in the areas that matter most.

Originally Posted by Pickles2

You could indeed be correct mate, and you probably are, but I hope not.
There's a very good article in the Melbourne Herald Sun today covering the situation.
And of course it's all over the net that S.A. have the dearest electricity in the world owing to an ever increasing reliance on wind generation, which has also proven to be unreliable when it is required most. Severe & more numerous Power Outages have occurred for all to see.
Like I said, I do not care how I get my power, I just want it. And I will not accept the closure of coal fired plants unless there is a seamless and equally reliable replacement power source, which condition has definitely not been guaranteed with the closure of Hazlewood,...whose continued operation was not helped one little bit by a 300% increase in certain "royalties".
In fact, I would even support a partial "restoration" of Hazlewood, which previously generated 25% of Victoria's power (and replaced by what?), to ensure that Victoria does not have the same issues as S.A.
This is not a "Political" statement, but a solution mentioned in the Sun today, that we should maybe have to turn off our A.C. & Heaters etc in periods of peak (when we most need it!) usage is clearly ridiculous, but maybe a frenzied, too late, reaction, of what is to come.
Pickles.

AEMO was back peddling today saying they might have chatted with enough industry to get them to shut down to allow the rest of the state to avoid black outs. Trust them? They try but honestly the shortfall for peak demand looks like it has as some have pointed out been a 25 year train crash about to happen.

Too late now , but why should any level of government subsidise a a private business that will then not provide the desired service ? By the way I didn't do well at economics at uni so maybe there is a reasonable explanation I can't grasp.

At its simplest level they are in business to make the most profit they can with the least risk possible. So you create a shortage so the price goes up. Then seeks subsidies to invest in what is after all to an outsider your core reason for existence. The game has been played to varying degrees of success by many industries.

Governments sold Hazelwood, Liddell and other older stations because they knew they were worn out. They had plenty of warning the private buyers would not upgrade them - why should they?

Their "solutions" only have last until the next news cycle, or, at most, the next election.