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Thread: Risk vs perception

  1. #1
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    Risk vs perception

    Riding a horse, Bike or motor bike, Flying in a plane or a glider perhaps a hang glider or a parachute?

    Coronavirus ‘Hits All the Hot Buttons’ for How We Misjudge Risk


    Psychologists say that differing responses to coronavirus and the flu illustrate our shortcomings when it comes to evaluating danger.

    It strikes me people a just scared of what they don't know about. There is currently almost no risk of COVID-19 biting anyone here in Australia. I know for a fact of fair loads of flu cases here which does kill a lot of people is here early but that not news.

  2. #2
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    The last time I checked, 2% of those who contracted the virus, actually died from it. Apart from being a new human virus, it's no more dangerous than any 'flu that's floating around already. Quoting numbers of those who have succumbed to the virus in China, has to be related to the number who have contracted it, and survived.
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  3. #3
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    Yes, although one of the major reasons this new virus is feared is that there are a lot of unknowns about it. Among these are its mode of transmission - it is thought to be transmitted primarily by traces left on smooth surfaces - or maybe by airborne droplets. Another unknown is the reliability of the data on its occurrence in China. In a closed such as this, you never know whether you can trust the data provided.

    And certainly, it may be "no more dangerous than any 'flu that's floating around already", but the spectre of 1919 hangs over that statement.
    John

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    ‘The spectre of 1919’
    John , did Australia suffer much? I have been involved with restoration of the Quarantine Station on Bruny Island, and the records do not show any death of returning soldiers.
    (I reckon they would feel slightly peedoff to see home and not go there)

    Am I right in thinking the world death of that flu exceeded the Great War casualty?

    By the way John, am in your country for a while, visiting kids in Coombs

    hooray Dave

  5. #5
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    You cant compare a virus to a sport.
    One you make the choice to do and often has fun associated to it.

    Nothing fun about a virus.

    Well something like herpes i guess you could argue it was fun getting........

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hogarthde View Post
    ‘The spectre of 1919’
    John , did Australia suffer much? I have been involved with restoration of the Quarantine Station on Bruny Island, and the records do not show any death of returning soldiers.
    (I reckon they would feel slightly peedoff to see home and not go there)

    Am I right in thinking the world death of that flu exceeded the Great War casualty?

    By the way John, am in your country for a while, visiting kids in Coombs

    hooray Dave
    In 1919 Australia had a population of about five million. It is estimated that about a third of these contracted the Spanish flu, and 15,000 died from it in one year, including a number of my relatives.

    This compares to about 60,000 war deaths over five years. And the profile of those who died was similar to the war dead - most of the deaths were young, healthy adults. Australia's death rate rose by about 25%.

    Australia got off lightly compared to some overseas countries, partly because it arrived later (no air travel) and after the news of it, so that quarantine was in place by the time it arrived, and reduced the impact.

    This is why we need to be very aware of the possibilities of any new "flu-like" disease.
    John

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  7. #7
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    15,000......that is the population of a decent town.

    how come we, I, don’t know this? I understand better now your comment ‘ the spectre of 1919’

    where is Corporal Jones when I need him

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hogarthde View Post
    .....

    how come we, I, don’t know this? I understand better now your comment ‘ the spectre of 1919’

    ......
    This is perhaps a good example of why we need to learn history. I should point out though that I did not learn about it from any history class. I have known about it nearly all my life, having heard about it from my parents, who were at the end of high school at the time. My mother lost three older sisters, for example, and one of her aunts, who was a nurse.

    But I am quite sure that it is very well known in most of the medical profession, and especially among epidemiologists and others charged with quarantine measures. But it is worth pointing out that it seems that many of the quarantine measures imposed at the time were very unpopular, especially the quarantining of soldiers who were being repatriated after years away from home. Some of them died in quarantine stations on Australian soil, especially in the Perth area, as Fremantle was the first port of call.
    John

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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by JDNSW View Post
    This is perhaps a good example of why we need to learn history. I should point out though that I did not learn about it from any history class. I have known about it nearly all my life, having heard about it from my parents, who were at the end of high school at the time. My mother lost three older sisters, for example, and one of her aunts, who was a nurse.

    But I am quite sure that it is very well known in most of the medical profession, and especially among epidemiologists and others charged with quarantine measures. But it is worth pointing out that it seems that many of the quarantine measures imposed at the time were very unpopular, especially the quarantining of soldiers who were being repatriated after years away from home. Some of them died in quarantine stations on Australian soil, especially in the Perth area, as Fremantle was the first port of call.
    Interesting, I remember reading about it when I was young, and how devastating it was world wide.

    The risk factor with the new Covid 19 virus is that no one has any immunity (yet) yet we all have some influenza immunity, and most nearly all of us carry antibodies to the 1919 Spanish Flu!

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by rick130 View Post
    Interesting, I remember reading about it when I was young, and how devastating it was world wide.

    The risk factor with the new Covid 19 virus is that no one has any immunity (yet) yet we all have some influenza immunity, and most nearly all of us carry antibodies to the 1919 Spanish Flu!

    Its still a perception of risk not real such as the twit who rear ended the car beside me 20 minutes ago. I wonder if he realized the risk his phone might break when he ran into the person in front of him while looking at his phone rather than the road

    Before you go for a second helping real risk here is Coronary heart disease is the leading underlying cause of death in Australia, followed by dementia and Alzheimer disease, and cerebrovascular disease (which includes stroke). Lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) make up the top 5 leading underlying causes of death in Australia in 2017, for males and females of all ages combined.

    Figure 3.2: Leading underlying causes of death, by age group, 2015–2017

    https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/4a5...d/3-2.png.aspx


    I understand the many thousands of people who have survived Covid 19 ( 98% or so) are being urgent to donate blood for plasma transfusions at the moment. Idea is sound Coronavirus Live Updates: China exploring new treatment with help from survivors | MEAWW

    Personally I still assume almost zero risk until winter here in the southern hemisphere. Sadly of course the flu mutates every single year meaning most of our prior immunity is no use at all

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