Thread: Corona Virus

Something to consider when people talk of;

“x”ty million die of Influenza A etc every year. this new “Flu” virus is nothing compared with that. We are over reacting

The simple fact is that Eradicating influenza a etc with it’s associated mortality from the human population is now impossible

However,
Covid 19 has an Ro of just 1.5 (new paper last night) so with good public health and containment of outbreaks It is quite possible that this new virus is able to be halted before it becomes normalised and endemic into the worlds population.

If we do nothing to limit Covid 19 then it will become endemic in the human population and worldwide flu deaths will go from “x”ty to something like 3x or 5x per year.

Next time there is an Ebola outbreak in west Africa should we just let it run its course with no attempt to contain it because it “only” kills a few hundred / thousand people?

I agree the media fuelled panic is a little over the top but the world , taking this seriously and thereby accepting a 10% or 20% write down on the equity markets (that are in all honestly just funny money not tied to the actual real economy) is a small small price to pay to potentially save millions of lives over the next 10-20-30-40 years
The markets will recover
Supply chains will reopen
If we can stop Covid 19 in 2020 then when you or your children get to 70 or 80 whenever that may be your chance of succumbing to a winter flu will be dramatically decreased

As a planet we don’t want covid 19 to become endemic in the human population like Influenza A etc already is.

This is about the long game

Steve

Originally Posted by roverrescue

Something to consider when people talk of;

“x”ty million die of Influenza A etc every year. this new “Flu” virus is nothing compared with that. We are over reacting

The simple fact is that Eradicating influenza a etc with it’s associated mortality from the human population is now impossible


This is about the long game

Steve

So, what we said?? Influenza is with us always? Covoid-19 is an influenza virus. Do I have that right?

Yes Influenza A and friends is a virus endemic in human population with a mortality rate

Covid 19 is also a virus which has a higher mortality rate but is NOT yet endemic in humans

If we as a planet can contain Covid 19 now when it is in small outbreak stages then in 10 years time we won’t have a “winter flu” mortality rate 3 times or 5 times higher than it is currently

S

If public health measures (containment) can drive Covid 19 transmission to an Ro of less than 1.0
It will die out in humans

Sure it may jump again from whatever bat/pig/monkey host it is in endemically
And sure we may need to contain again in the future

That is no different to what is done with Ebola outbreaks

Drive Covid19 out of the human population


If as a planet we do nothing it will multiply to the point that it will never be able to be stopped and our only prevention will be limited efficacy vaccinations

Steve

The problem is going to be the US and its health system - one person who was sick went to hospital to be tested and came away with a $3200 bill - so now people are not getting tested because of the cost.

Originally Posted by 101RRS

The problem is going to be the US and its health system - one person who was sick went to hospital to be tested and came away with a $3200 bill - so now people are not getting tested because of the cost.

just cough on a rich person.

I'm not suggesting that we let corona take its course, but I think all the panicking is OTT.
My understanding is that the mortality rate is about the same for corona as any other 'flu, ~2%. The problem with the new virus is its longer incubation period allows more to become infected before realisation of contraction.
With a common virus an infected patient may spread the virus to x number of people, before becoming aware that they are infectious. With corona and its longer incubation, the infected person has the opportunity to infect 3-4x people, that happens exponentially.

Originally Posted by V8Ian

I'm not suggesting that we let corona take its course, but I think all the panicking is OTT.
My understanding is that the mortality rate is about the same for corona as any other 'flu, ~2%. The problem with the new virus is its longer incubation period allows more to become infected before realisation of contraction.
With a common virus an infected patient may spread the virus to x number of people, before becoming aware that they are infectious. With corona and its longer incubation, the infected person has the opportunity to infect 3-4x people, that happens exponentially.

no, the flu has a CFR of about 0.1-0.2%. so in effect corona is about ten times as deadly.

lets say 1/4 of the earth population is infected, thats 2 billion. at 2% CFR thats 40 million deaths

but i do agree the media coverage is OTT