Corona Virus

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Originally Posted by bob10

Are you sure there are just 3 cases in Melbourne? It says here that testing in Victoria has dropped by 50% since June.

“NSW, Victoria and SA have all declined in their testing since mid-August,” Professor McLaws said.

Testing numbers in Melbourne, she noted, had fallen by more than 50 per cent since peaking in June.

'Yo-yo cities': Expect unexpected setbacks in COVID fight

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I'm pretty sure that Melbourne isn't running some undetected pandemic:

• There are between 15,000 and 20,000 tests a day being done in Victoria. That's 5 times higher than in Queensland - see the Qld health table below.

• Despite testing 15,000 people a day, the positive rate in Victoria is now just 0.1%. If insufficient testing was being done that rate would be more like 20%. It's also about a third of the positive rate a month or so ago, 0.3%, which was in any case considered pretty good.

Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Coronavirus testing data by local government area

So, yeah, I'm pretty confident that the Vic numbers are accurate.

Returning to the Qld traveller, there are just 175 active cases in Victoria, of whom 167 are in Melbourne, all of whom who would be in isolation. It really is unlikely that she landed in Victoria and was immediately infected.

Given that she's asymptomatic she could have been positive for weeks:

"She's not showing any symptoms of COVID-19 and that's why it's challenging for us to identify when she may have been infectious."

Oh, and then there's this:


Chair of the Northern Australia Primary Health Limited and Townsville general practitioner, Dr Michael Clements, said the traces and case should be a wake-up call.
"We should use it not as a fear mongering step but as a reminder that we are still vulnerable," Dr Clements said.

"Unfortunately, what we have seen in north Queensland and in large parts of Queensland is a complacency.
"We haven't had any cases here for so long now that we've seen testing rates drop.

"We've seen social distancing almost thrown out the window.

"Our biggest danger is complacency and thinking that we've beaten it.
"If we carry on as if it's not going to happen to us it'll spread like wildfire and we will be locked off to the rest of the world."


Testing

Region	Samples tested		Persons tested		Tests per 100,000 persons
Total	Last 24 hours	Total	Last 24 hours
Queensland	1,174,703	5,280	955,185	3,241	18,673

Those dastardly Queenslanders are at it again.

The mighty Raiders play the Storm tomorrow night in Brisbane but Qld will not allow the Raiders to stay overnight in Qld, so instead of going up a couple of days before and settling in and getting in the right mind set for the game, they have to fly up from Canberra just before the game, play the game then I don't know, but Qld have said the Raiders are not allowed to stay overnight in a Qld hotel.

You gotta love Qld - not.

Go the Raiders [thumbsupbig]

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Originally Posted by Arapiles

I'm pretty sure that Melbourne isn't running some undetected pandemic:

• There are between 15,000 and 20,000 tests a day being done in Victoria. That's 5 times higher than in Queensland - see the Qld health table below.

• Despite testing 15,000 people a day, the positive rate in Victoria is now just 0.1%. If insufficient testing was being done that rate would be more like 20%. It's also about a third of the positive rate a month or so ago, 0.3%, which was in any case considered pretty good.

Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Coronavirus testing data by local government area

So, yeah, I'm pretty confident that the Vic numbers are accurate.

Returning to the Qld traveller, there are just 175 active cases in Victoria, of whom 167 are in Melbourne, all of whom who would be in isolation. It really is unlikely that she landed in Victoria and was immediately infected.

Given that she's asymptomatic she could have been positive for weeks:

"She's not showing any symptoms of COVID-19 and that's why it's challenging for us to identify when she may have been infectious."

Oh, and then there's this:


Chair of the Northern Australia Primary Health Limited and Townsville general practitioner, Dr Michael Clements, said the traces and case should be a wake-up call.
"We should use it not as a fear mongering step but as a reminder that we are still vulnerable," Dr Clements said.

"Unfortunately, what we have seen in north Queensland and in large parts of Queensland is a complacency.
"We haven't had any cases here for so long now that we've seen testing rates drop.

"We've seen social distancing almost thrown out the window.

"Our biggest danger is complacency and thinking that we've beaten it.
"If we carry on as if it's not going to happen to us it'll spread like wildfire and we will be locked off to the rest of the world."


Testing

Region	Samples tested		Persons tested		Tests per 100,000 persons
Total	Last 24 hours	Total	Last 24 hours
Queensland	1,174,703	5,280	955,185	3,241	18,673

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I'm glad you are confident. We will see what transpires, but it is evident from the NSW and Victorian experience that complacency is definitely a problem. So far still zero cases here. The law of averages dictates QLD must get more cases before this is over. Thankfully our contact tracing is first class. So far.

The USA says it is going for " herd immunity "

The White House embraces a dubious route to ‘herd immunity’

The White House confirmed this week that it is embracing a strategy rejected by most health experts to combat the coronavirus.

The approach aims to achieve “herd immunity” — the point where the virus stops spreading because enough people are immune — not by vaccine, but by allowing the virus to spread unchecked among young healthy people, while using isolation to protect the elderly and otherwise vulnerable.

That thinking is central to a recent petition put forth by three scientists, titled the Great Barrington Declaration, that top administration officials told The Times this week that they are endorsing.

The petition argues against lockdowns and calls for a reopening of businesses and schools, and for those who are not vulnerable to “resume life as normal.” At least two of the petition’s signatories argue that societies may achieve herd immunity when just 10 to 20 percent of their populations have been infected, a proportion most epidemiologists believe is far too small.

Our science colleague Apoorva Mandavilli told us that the more widely accepted science suggests that herd immunity requires 50 percent or more of the population to be immune.

“Even 20 or 25 percent, really only New York is probably around that,” Apoorva told us. “The rest of the country is more around 10 percent, so we’re talking about possibly doubling the toll everywhere we’ve seen so far.”

She pointed out other flaws in the declaration including the assumption that only a small portion of the population is vulnerable and would need to isolate. “We’re worried about anybody with underlying conditions, like obesity and diabetes, and in the U.S. that’s almost half the population,” she said.

And even in young, healthy people, the virus can cause death or long-term damage.

“Some public health experts I’ve talked to worry that the White House embracing a strategy like this essentially gives license to every young person who doesn’t feel like taking precautions,” she said.

“This is like permission to go out, get themselves exposed to the virus, have parties and keep the virus circulating. It has the potential to cause a lot of death and a lot of illnesses, not just among the older people that it might spread to, but even among young people.”

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Originally Posted by bob10

Let's hope COVID complacency is not setting in. After all the angst of the past few months, it would a total shame for COVID to slip in the back door due to someone's boredom. It would be unbearable.

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I see they caught a hideaway at Texas. Good to see they are vigilant

When I go the long way to site via the unmanned locked gate I drive into Texas.....but not through the manned border check point.

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Originally Posted by W&KO

I see they caught a hideaway at Texas. Good to see they are vigilant

When I go the long way to site via the unmanned locked gate I drive into Texas.....but not through the manned border check point.

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The danger is the longer we go with zero cases, the more complacent people will get, especially in the North. Opening up for tourism to all is a catch 22.

Surely herd immunity only works if the herd becomes immune. If immunity only lasts < 6 months, in any reasonable sized population herd immunity will be impossible.

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Originally Posted by bob10

I'm glad you are confident. We will see what transpires, but it is evident from the NSW and Victorian experience that complacency is definitely a problem. So far still zero cases here. The law of averages dictates QLD must get more cases before this is over. Thankfully our contact tracing is first class. So far.

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You know, it's still not clear to me how we ended up with 700+ cases per day - but it must've been spreading for a while undetected amongst the high risk groups.

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Originally Posted by 101RRS

Those dastardly Queenslanders are at it again.

The mighty Raiders play the Storm tomorrow night in Brisbane but Qld will not allow the Raiders to stay overnight in Qld, so instead of going up a couple of days before and settling in and getting in the right mind set for the game, they have to fly up from Canberra just before the game, play the game then I don't know, but Qld have said the Raiders are not allowed to stay overnight in a Qld hotel.

You gotta love Qld - not.

Go the Raiders [thumbsupbig]

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You want cheese with that whine?


and they are a good chance too... best we find ways to hobble them...

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Originally Posted by V8Ian

Surely herd immunity only works if the herd becomes immune. If immunity only lasts < 6 months, in any reasonable sized population herd immunity will be impossible.

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it's a mythical target....