Thread: Corona Virus

Originally Posted by BradC

Are you suggesting its a New South Welshman who is the missing link?

Luckily I haven't been anywhere near the peninsula or Sydney for a few years.

Originally Posted by BradC

The reason Victoria did it the way it did previously was it was playing "whack a mole" where the moles were invisible and the 3 part time contact tracers were blindfolded with one hand and both legs tied behind their backs. By the time they got it into gear, things were so far out of control a full lockdown was the only way to get on top of it quickly. Other states still haven't paid any more than lip service to the Victorian lessons learned.

NSW was still the gold standard for contact tracing, but suffers from the same problem faced everywhere except Victoria "Can't fix stupid and it won't affect me". Victoria knows better, so even the stupid have a crack at playing by the rules because they know it *will* affect them. Once burned and all that.

Don't even get me started on the West......

These are the Tracys we need:

Contact Tracys - YouTube

Originally Posted by rick130

Bob, there are multiple reports quoting the CMO that it matches a strain in early December in quarantine, they just can't physically link it to Avalon which is the frustrating part for the tracers.

Yes, I'm not suggesting NSW has done anything wrong , essentially. And compared to Europe and the USA, we look very good. I'm just a little concerned that the NSW government may be hanging their hat on a COVID fight philosophy that has as it's engine room the back room boys of the conservative movement in Australia, A la Alan Jones & co. from the Sydney Cricket ground trust, to name one. Their philosophy is one of keep business open at all costs normally an admirable aspiration ,but loses it's lustre when it puts the health of citizens at risk.

It begs the question, what standards do we as Australians, accept in this COVID fight? One that keeps share holders and the monied gentry happy, or one that protects all citizens. A loaded question, depends on your position in the social structure, I guess. Is the life of a struggling low income worker worth less than the life of say, Alan Jones? Speaking of the SCG trust, their board membership consists of a who's who of conservative party donors, could this be the reason the cricket is going on, against the advice of many senior health officials in Aus.? Don't want to turn this into something it shouldn't be, but all valid questions that need to be asked.

Speaking about the cricket, and referencing my previous posts on COVID and children, how many 9 or 10 year old's will be at the cricket, without a mask, do you think?

The more we find out about this virus, the more we find we do not know. Can anyone tell me how accurate is the testing being done? What type of test is it that we do? Do all States do the same tests? If we test 30,000 people, how do we get 30,000 accurate results the next day? I have heard of rapid testing, via the ' lateral flow method' , easily giving results in half an hour. Less accurate than the PCR swab test, with a high level of false negatives which is said to lead to the continued spread of the new more infectious variant of the disease.

Apparently the rapid test will pick up those with higher viral levels, thus more likely to pass on the virus. But those with low viral levels could slip thru. They may not pass on the virus as much as the others, but to me it's not desirable to have them wandering about. Another testing technology ' isothermal amplification' [ if any one can explain these things, please do] could reduce the rate of false negatives, according to reports. Which begs the question, what is the false negative percentage of the testing we are currently doing? And how many false negatives should we expect from 30,000 tests? Any way, found this

How accurate are COVID-19 swab tests?

PCR testing

Even the PCR test isn't 100% accurate. Scientists assess the accuracy of tests based on:
Sensitivity: how often people who have COVID-19 are identified as being infected. People who have 'false negative' tests are infected but have a negative result.
Specificity: how often people who do not have COVID-19 are told they are infected. People who have 'false positive' tests are not infected with COVID-19 but get a positive result (for instance, because they're infected with a virus with a similar genetic code).

One review suggests false negative rates of 2-29% for PCR testing, based on a negative PCR test which later becomes positive.Part of the problem lies with the amount of virus RNA present - at the early stages of infection, there may not be enough genetic material for an accurate positive test, even if you are infected with COVID-19. On average, people are most likely to test positive from a couple of days before they develop symptoms until about a week after symptoms begin



Are the new COVID-19 swab tests accurate? Should you get one, do they hurt and other questions answered | Patient

Just pre ordering my Doctors/patients flu vax for about March 2021 today. Been looking at Covid vax for a while wondering what, how, when and who. Flu Vaccines are a mess every year especially if events like a big flu year or the Covid outbreak puts the wind up people. That seems to have hit me for the last three years in a row I feel.

Looking at the US vaccine role out is not pretty at all. Given they knew about it coming for the same time as everyone else and spend a few billion on them. "Vaccination is going slowly because nobody is in charge- We’ve known for months that vaccines were coming. Why weren’t we prepared to use them? " is not a pretty headline I would hate to see here.


The UKs possible deviation from the recommendations for the second dose timing is .

One seemingly bright example is Israeli with 12% of them already with one does I assume

Predicting which of the several vaccines or specifically, I assume, which one or all of the "4 separate agreements for the supply of COVID-19 vaccines" we may have soon is happily a bit premature.

My hope is we have three to four options and a very effective mass drive up vaccination process. My places Drive up flu vax 2020 worked very well. It will be much improved this year. Noting chatting with council to try and co-ordinate was a waste of time 2020 and sadly it seem a each to there own still with little information flows and joint planning at my low level non existent. Covid19 drive by vaccine will be crazy and fun.

State Gov vaccine distribution is better organized which is why I am at work today reporting for them to arrange this years supplies I have kicked their distribution last year and in 2019. Hoping it works so much better for 2021. Massive rescheduling wastes a lot of time and resources which would be best spent giving vaccinations to those who want and need them.

Originally Posted by bob10

The more we find out about this virus, the more we find we do not know. Can anyone tell me how accurate is the testing being done? What type of test is it that we do? Do all States do the same tests? .....

As far as I am aware, we only use PCR.

There is an Australian company that recently developed a quick test but it's not available in Australia, presumably because it's not accurate enough.

Originally Posted by Slunnie

I think we're on the same page here.

I suspected we were but in a roundabout way. I think.

Originally Posted by Arapiles

As far as I am aware, we only use PCR.

There is an Australian company that recently developed a quick test but it's not available in Australia, presumably because it's not accurate enough.

So according to the Brit article which says the PCR test can give any where from 2 to 29 % false negatives, taking that to halfway, that's probably 3,000 false negatives out of 30,000. Doesn't give me confidence in the testing system. But it's all we have, so we must carry on. What gives me even less confidence is that under those circumstances, Australia relies heavily on the honesty and good virtue of its citizens, a recipe for disaster under normal circumstances.