Thinking about the effect of this virus in the USA.
A couple of points to consider.
A significant proportion of workers simply cannot take a fortnight off for for quarantine purposes. Something over 30% of US workers have no sick leave and no leave entitlements. Given the possibility of their being ordered to self-quarantine if diagnosed, how many of these workers are going to even consider getting tested? What is this going to do to the rate of spread of the virus there? And if they get sick and require hospital treatment, around the same proportion have no health insurance. If they are actually treated, they face certain bankruptcy, and loss of their house if they actually own one, or eviction if they are renting.
What is this going to do to the price of houses? And what will be the flow on effect, for example, with foreclosures as other houses become worth less than the amount of the mortgage?
Add these effects, plus the disruption to the supply chains, and what is the US economy going to look like six months from now? And the flow on to other economies, including ours, even though this sort of direct effect should be a lot less here, due to the labour laws and health system.
All this added on to the effects of the loss of tourists and foreign students, and the general loss of income as people avoid large gatherings - and cut spending because of uncertainty.
John
JDNSW
1986 110 County 3.9 diesel
1970 2a 109 2.25 petrol
Bookmarks