An interesting read on electric vehicles and the experience in regional areas

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Originally Posted by JDNSW

These problems can be surmounted when the problem cannot be solved using batteries, as with long distance haulage, but there is zero evidence that hydrogen will ever become competitive with batteries for private cars.

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I suspect the several Trillion dollars put in to Hydrogen in Germany, Korea, Japan, China, France, UK, US and here just might move the cost base a long way very quickly. Prof Armin Schnettler pointed out a few days ago the 10 times improvement in Siemens Hydrogen Electrolysis and scale up from 1MW size to 25 MW being installed now development of 100 MW units and working on bigger already.

Cost forecast for Clean Hydrogen by almost everyone is substantially below the current large scale Steam reformed hydrogen production.

Move to the battery topic is possibly left in alternative energy[biggrin] Watching with interested significant improvement in that sector with a sprinkle of graphene making current batteries looking very old hat. You can buy first generation of them now Graphene – Real Graphene USA

Add VW-backed/Bill Gates backing San Jose battery maker QuantumScape with $3USD billion in funding for plans for a solid state battery and start dreaming[biggrin]

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Originally Posted by NavyDiver

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Cost forecast for Clean Hydrogen by almost everyone is substantially below the current large scale Steam reformed hydrogen production.
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Still losing out to batteries everywhere that these are feasible, including cars, because the battery cycle is far more energy efficient (less solar, wind needs to be built). But there is a future for hydrogen in heavy transport - air, sea, land.

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Originally Posted by JDNSW

Still losing out to batteries everywhere that these are feasible, including cars, because the battery cycle is far more energy efficient (less solar, wind needs to be built). But there is a future for hydrogen in heavy transport - air, sea, land.

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Hydrogen is also a much better convenient option,than electric, for large cars and 4WD,particularly those that tow extensively.
And also for commercial utes,vans,etc that are used for business and need to run all day every day, often fully loaded,some towing huge loads as well.

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Originally Posted by JDNSW

Still losing out to batteries everywhere that these are feasible, including cars, because the battery cycle is far more energy efficient (less solar, wind needs to be built). But there is a future for hydrogen in heavy transport - air, sea, land.

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Which is why I like the idea of a super capacitor in the car which will charge fast and then discharge into the on board battery, but I suspect this might just move the current draw bottleneck from the car's cable to the local power cables overheads.

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Originally Posted by scarry

Hydrogen is also a much better convenient option,than electric, for large cars and 4WD,particularly those that tow extensively.
And also for commercial utes,vans,etc that are used for business and need to run all day every day, often fully loaded,some towing huge loads as well.

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The exact vehicle size that will mark the point where hydrogen will be more attractive than batteries is not clear, and will vary as technology changes. I still doubt it will ever be ahead of batteries even for large passenger cars. For some businesses with utes towing trailers, it may become attractive, but these will be niche vehicles, unlikely to sell in the large numbers that their current counterparts do, as they will be far less attractive for most use than EVs. Bear in mind that existing ICE vehicles will still comprise the vast majority of the fleet for at least the next ten to fifteen years, even if few are being sold by the end of that period.

What you may end up with is the situation we had with diesel when I got my first diesel Landrover in the early sixties - while diesel was in widespread use for long distance trucking and buses, as the owner of a deisel light vehicle I quickly learnt the whereabouts of the three or four service stations in Brisbane (not on the highways out of town) that sold diesel.

There’s no way our electrical infrastructure can be made to handle a world with few/zero ICE vehicles in 10 to 15 years if everyone moves to EV’s. I would say 40 to 50 is more realistic and who knows what mix of energy we’ll be using by then. There’s almost no suburban street or new development that could handle everyone changing their vehicles each night and no developer is going to put in big enough subs until it’s mandated by law - current housing developments supplies are tapped out now on hot days, they simply aren’t capable of everyone sticking a 15 amp charger or bigger in their garages and expecting things not to go pop somewhere up the line.

Shopping centres, etc don’t have the electrical capacity to put more than a few dozen chargers in their car parks and don’t even ask if our major cities can handle more load - their tapped out as well with the subs groaning already and despite a massive upgrade program being undertaken it’s a 10 year plan just to replace existing aging infrastructure with new similar equipment.

I think most people don’t appreciate or understand how much load would be shifted to the grid by moving all our vehicles energy needs to it. And there’s no spare capacity in generation any more either with the big power stations going the way of the dodo. Short of everyone having rooftop solar AND batteries then it won’t happen and I can’t see most families being able to afford the $20K plus this would cost on top of their expensive new EV.

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Originally Posted by Homestar

There’s no way our electrical infrastructure can be made to handle a world with few/zero ICE vehicles in 10 to 15 years if everyone moves to EV’s. I would say 40 to 50 is more realistic and who knows what mix of energy we’ll be using by then. There’s almost no suburban street or new development that could handle everyone changing their vehicles each night and no developer is going to put in big enough subs until it’s mandated by law - current housing developments supplies are tapped out now on hot days, they simply aren’t capable of everyone sticking a 15 amp charger or bigger in their garages and expecting things not to go pop somewhere up the line.

Shopping centres, etc don’t have the electrical capacity to put more than a few dozen chargers in their car parks and don’t even ask if our major cities can handle more load - their tapped out as well with the subs groaning already and despite a massive upgrade program being undertaken it’s a 10 year plan just to replace existing aging infrastructure with new similar equipment.

I think most people don’t appreciate or understand how much load would be shifted to the grid by moving all our vehicles energy needs to it. And there’s no spare capacity in generation any more either with the big power stations going the way of the dodo. Short of everyone having rooftop solar AND batteries then it won’t happen and I can’t see most families being able to afford the $20K plus this would cost on top of their expensive new EV.

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Exactly,i have been saying this for years,but have been shot down,others seem to think the power issue, is no issue at all.
In actual fact,as you have said,it is huge.Probably the biggest issue with EV's,apart from their inconvenience for many.

Of the 200 new Servos built in Aus in the last 2 years,not ONE,that is NONE have been fitted with charging points for EV's.

Oh,and rooftop solar is not convenient for many,think renters,people in large unit towers,where there is limited roof space,and on it goes.

And posts keep popping up on here from some that diesel is dead,that is definitely a pipe dream.Many vehicle manufactures are still doing R&D on Diesel engines,mainly because for many years to come there will be no alternative.
And some places in Europe banning IC's in 10yrs time,they are dreaming as well.Sure it gives some a warm and fuzzy feeling,and makes them supposedly look good,but in reality,blind Freddy can see it isn't going to happen.

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Originally Posted by V8Ian

If hydrogen is going to be sourced from water, what will be the ramifications to the environment?
Water is a finite resource, in short supply in many areas of this country.

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Someone may correct me if I'm wrong here .. but!
It's not 'water' as you think it's going to be. I'm sure the info I read is that salt water is easier to do hydrolysis to convert to hydrogen .. so water .. ie. the precious resource type of water is safe and isn't the stuff they want to convert into hydrogen.
I dunno if the salt water from ocean is, but I remember that the major issue is going to be the byproduct of chlorine, and what to do with it if they produce hydrogen this way.

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Originally Posted by scarry

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Oh,and rooftop solar is not convenient for many,think renters,people in large unit towers,where there is limited roof space,and on it goes.

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Don't forget the batteries! Roof solar is an easy fix .. govt's give rebates, property owners take it up, add a bit more to the cost of the rental, they make more money per year with very little capital outlay.
But the battery is the important component if wanted for charging the vehicle(and keep the grid safe) if everyone begins the switch over to (grid) EVs.
Just having solar panels isn't going to help charge your vehicles unless you have spares.
Think about it, 99% of the workforce goes out to work during the day and charges at night .. solar is pretty much useless here without some reserve capacity (ie. battery of some type).
if you were a night shift worker .. awesome. But for most of these 'masses' .. without batteries to go with their solar arrays .. not a solution to what Homestar wrote about.

it's interesting to listen to conversations with 'renter' types nowadays.
A few I know(have known)( would prefer to pay a few dollars more per week WITH solar, then pay less rent without. It's a negatively geared investors new found marketing advantage.
I admit I live near the latte sipping green belt that is Brunswick(Melb) .. so their chatter may be a bit more biased in that way.

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Originally Posted by scarry

Exactly,i have been saying this for years,but have been shot down,others seem to think the power issue, is no issue at all.
In actual fact,as you have said,it is huge.Probably the biggest issue with EV's,apart from their inconvenience for many.

Of the 200 new Servos built in Aus in the last 2 years,not ONE,that is NONE have been fitted with charging points for EV's.

Oh,and rooftop solar is not convenient for many,think renters,people in large unit towers,where there is limited roof space,and on it goes.

And posts keep popping up on here from some that diesel is dead,that is definitely a pipe dream.Many vehicle manufactures are still doing R&D on Diesel engines,mainly because for many years to come there will be no alternative.
And some places in Europe banning IC's in 10yrs time,they are dreaming as well.Sure it gives some a warm and fuzzy feeling,and makes them supposedly look good,but in reality,blind Freddy can see it isn't going to happen.

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Volvo suggesting the next Xc60 will be its last ICE engine. We would be joking to say diesel is dead. It seem likely its demise is on the boards some time in the future just like us shuffling of the mortal coil and toil perhaps? :)

Your "many years to come there will be no alternative" may be viewed with a similar degree of skepticism. You may be right I may be crazy :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jo9t5XK0FhA

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Originally Posted by Homestar

There’s no way our electrical infrastructure can be made to handle a world with few/zero ICE vehicles in 10 to 15 years if everyone moves to EV’s. I would say 40 to 50 is more realistic and who knows what mix of energy we’ll be using by then........

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When I wrote 10-15 years, I was used these figures to make the point that even if this happens, most cars will still be ICE at the end of this period. This does not mark the end of the ICE vehicle, even if manufacture of them ceased then - a reasonable average life is for the last ones produced is at least twenty years (my two cars in pretty much daily use are 50 and 36 years old), so even stopping production of ICE vehicles in 10-15 years does not mean tht our infrastructure has to cope with 100% EVs in 10-15 years - more like 30-35 years, with the changeover being very gradual, so there will be plenty of time to upgrade infrastructure, in the same way that Australia changed from a largely public transport nation in 1945 to a car oriented nation twenty or thirty years later.