Covid Mk ll

Some interesting stats regarding population density. The whole thesis is available at https://apo.org.au/sites/default/fil...o-nid63334.pdf.
Attachment 172987

There was an article the other day where 70% of spread in Sydney is within family groups, its easy to blame that on people visiting against regulations but I can't imagine how a family of 5 living in a 3 bedroom unit could possibly not get Delta if one family member was a nurse, a bus driver or any other essential worker and brought it home.
NSW COVID: 70 per cent of Sydney cases from household transmissions

The media focusses on the breaches and I'm sure there is some level of non compliance but I fear that the transmission in densly populated areas is probably no more controllable than is currently being achieved.

Regards,
Tote

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Originally Posted by Arapiles

And the bad news is that the UK's deaths from Covid were 113 yesterday.

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drop in the ocean.

something that's not been discussed much is how the covid recession is worse than the global financial crisis.

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Originally Posted by Eevo

drop in the ocean.

something that's not been discussed much is how the covid recession is worse than the global financial crisis.

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What covid recession? NZ economy is booming, and the Reserve bank delayed raising the OCR yesterday due to the latest outbreak. Building boom happening. Situations vacant ads at high levels. NZ unemployment at the lowest level in many years, at 4%. Admittedly, it is at the end of a quantitative easing program but it is the economy. The hang-over is going to be a lu-lu though.

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Originally Posted by bob10

Tote, can't we have a conversation without you getting personal.? Pontificate,? please. I know you mob are doing it tough down there, but have you thought that perhaps if you were to approach this with an open mind, we could have a much better discussion. Disagree by all means, but don't do it in such a way as to elicit an aggressive response . Let's try to have an adult conversation, I'm willing to try.

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I think your reading too much into Tote's post, Bob. I didn't think it pompous, or parochial.

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Originally Posted by bob10

You've posted this before Ian. And my response is I have not noticed anything similar around our way. However thinking that our population would be complete angels is naive, I know. But the truth is the majority are compliant, and the police were scrutinising , just not where you were. The fact we had over 15,000 in home quarantine in the last outbreak with not one reported transgression shows a compliance to restrictions which is remarkable, really. Luck? probably. But some good management as well.

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Geography and demographics probably come into play, Bob. Your area has a more mature and sensibly compliant population whereas out here there are more young, aggressive, 'don't tell me what to do' types; simply look at the driving styles.
The lack of infringements issued merely indicates the sketchy and sparse policing. How many vehicles do you see with illegally fitted and converted lights, compared to prosecution for such?

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Originally Posted by Eevo

drop in the ocean.

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Unless one of them, is your mother or daughter.

Easy to say “oh well, people are going to die so just let it loose”. Your kid is immunocompromised and can’t be vaccinated? “Sorry mate, you have to die. It’s nothing personal though, but the economy is more important”.

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Originally Posted by BradC

Unless one of them, is your mother or daughter.

Easy to say “oh well, people are going to die so just let it loose”. Your kid is immunocompromised and can’t be vaccinated? “Sorry mate, you have to die. It’s nothing personal though, but the economy is more important”.

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iedit:
vic has 55 new cases today
i dont let it personal. bad for decision making.

There are 11 new community cases of COVID-19 in NZ today.


Of these new cases, eight are in Auckland and three are in Wellington.

The three in Wellington had been to an Auckland location of interest recently.

A press conference is scheduled for 3pm NZST where news of lock down extension will be given. Extension is now certain really with the outbreak now gone beyond Auckland. It may be that the govt does a regional lock down surrounding Wellington and lets the rest of us go down a level, but I think that as they say lessons have been learned from NSW they will likely extend the nation-wide Level 4 for a period into next week.

Looks like I have quality land rover maintenance time ahead... [thumbsupbig]

The NZ Ministry of Health news release.

11 additional community cases; 2 new cases in managed isolation facilities | Ministry of Health NZ

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Originally Posted by V8Ian

Geography and demographics probably come into play, Bob. Your area has a more mature and sensibly compliant population whereas out here there are more young, aggressive, 'don't tell me what to do' types; simply look at the driving styles.
The lack of infringements issued merely indicates the sketchy and sparse policing. How many vehicles do you see with illegally fitted and converted lights, compared to prosecution for such?

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I agree. Here the population demographics come in waves, we get young families, the kids grow into teenagers, we have all the issues that go with that. They grow up, move out or marry, their kids become teenagers, etc etc . ATM most of the young ones here are young teens too young to drive. Our next wave of recalcitrant teens is coming I guess. That's life.